Hectic Hawaii (Game Over)

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Mooglie

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Well, here is a story about this day:

Person: Maybe there's an SK and they did [insert stuff here]
Caff: I'm pretty sure there's not a third killing role!

Person: Maybe there is actually an SK, it would explain [insert stuff here]
Caff: Three killing roles would be ridiculous!

Person: Actually, an SK opens up this possibility...
Caff: THERE'S NO SK OKAY


soyeah.
 

CaffeinatedKitty

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[sarcasm]yep, obviously the serial killer over here, who doesn't know how to shut up and is giving herself away~~[/sarcasm]
Really though. People just seem convinced that there is one, and there's no actual point to there being one, seeing as we had two confirmed killing roles, and that would make for three deaths every two nights... One more death per night and the game would be pretty much over after Night 1, unless both the Vigilante and the SK got very lucky and both killed mafia members. Thus, I'm pretty darn certain that there is no SK whatsoever, and the only killing role left is the mafia itself.
 

Nottykitten

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Time to throw this into the group.

What is your opinion No Lynching/Lynching. If we No Lynch, we give the cop a higher chance to live tomorrow and give us info. However we also lose the chance to lynch a Mafia during that day. If we do Lynch however, we risk lynching the cop and make the chance higher the Mafia kills the cop during the night.

My say would be to Lynch and take the chance of getting a Mafia.
 

Fruit

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With a limited number of people in this game we can't sit back and no lynch again. So I agree with notty, we need to take a risk today and lynch and hope for mafia.

Let's not take shots in the dark, but we can't no lynch. The mafia would have too much of an advantage.

I have been/will be busy today - helping my parents work on our new house. I'll be here later tonight though.
 

Nottykitten

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Actually I just realised we are pretty much at a MyLo already. I think Ltin might just have lost us the game by killing 77 ;-;

I mean we have 8 players alive. Presumed 3/8 of those are mafia. If we mislynch, there will be 3/7 mafia during the night. After the mafia kill someone during the night there will be 3/6 Mafia. Mafia can then all vote No Lynch since it only needs half the votes and the night starts. During the night they can kill someone and during the day it will be 3/5 Mafia as majority and they win. So basicly: If we mislynch we lose.

If we decide to No Lynch, during the night 3/8 will be Mafia. And the day after 3/7 will be Mafia. So if we mislynch here we also lose. However: Atleast in this situation the cop will have 1 extra night to get an investigation.


In both situations we lose if we Mislynch. However in the second situation the cop has 1 more investigation to help us. So after doing this math I have changed my mind about wanting to Lynch. I don't want to take that chance at a MyLo =S.

I'd rather have 1 more investigation tomorrow.

Vote No Lynch
 

Duffie

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Probabily because she keeps saying that there is no SK, maybe trying to hide the fact that there is an SK[her]
:eek:

I totally wasn't thinking of that at all.

But, I have to admit, I somewhat doubt the SK wouldn't kill night one, after all the discussion we went over about the possibilities. xD

Time to throw this into the group.

What is your opinion No Lynching/Lynching. If we No Lynch, we give the cop a higher chance to live tomorrow and give us info. However we also lose the chance to lynch a Mafia during that day. If we do Lynch however, we risk lynching the cop and make the chance higher the Mafia kills the cop during the night.

My say would be to Lynch and take the chance of getting a Mafia.
Well, time for statistics.

Total Players : 10
Mafia ~ 2~3
Town ~ 3 ~Based on flavour text
PR ~ 0 ~ 1 (2 Dead)
Third Party ~ 1 ~ 3

With two people dead, that leaves 8 people.

In order to lynch mafia, and if at random, we'll have either a 25% or 38% chance at hitting them, and if there's a power role, we'll have a 13% chance at hitting him/he--

Actually I just realised we are pretty much at a MyLo already. I think Ltin might just have lost us the game by killing 77 ;-;

I mean we have 8 players alive. Presumed 3/8 of those are mafia. If we mislynch, there will be 3/7 mafia during the night. After the mafia kill someone during the night there will be 3/6 Mafia. Mafia can then all vote No Lynch since it only needs half the votes and the night starts. During the night they can kill someone and during the day it will be 3/5 Mafia as majority and they win. So basicly: If we mislynch we lose.

If we decide to No Lynch, during the night 3/8 will be Mafia. And the day after 3/7 will be Mafia. So if we mislynch here we also lose. However: Atleast in this situation the cop will have 1 extra night to get an investigation.


In both situations we lose if we Mislynch. However in the second situation the cop has 1 more investigation to help us. So after doing this math I have changed my mind about wanting to Lynch. I don't want to take that chance at a MyLo =S.

I'd rather have 1 more investigation tomorrow.

Vote No Lynch
And now we're at LyLo? I suppose, if we have 3 mafia... Totally didn't think LyLo would happen so fast. D:

Honestly, I feel that we should still take the chance to lynch, seeing as we don't have a killing role anymore, or at least, with a Vig dead. >, <

A no lynch would mean certain death, most likely, wouldn't it? D:
 

Fiestaguy

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It means one more person is dead, however that one person won't matter much because in both situations if we mislynch we lose. However today the cop only has 1 investigation and tomorrow if he doesn't die he will have two.

And a MyLo with 2 investigations is better than a MyLo with 1 investigation.
If we did no-lynch today we'd better make fucking sure we lynch mafia tomorrow. Also, there is the small chance the serial killer (If one were in play) could attack another townie making an instant-loss. Or what if there is no cop at all?
 

Nottykitten

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If we did no-lynch today we'd better make fucking sure we lynch mafia tomorrow. Also, there is the small chance the serial killer (If one were in play) could attack another townie making an instant-loss. Or what if there is no cop at all?
If we do Lynch today we "better make fucking sure" we lynch mafia today aswell. And I'm pretty sure there is a cop since how else are us townies supposted to figure stuff out.
 

Enderfive

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Ok, uhm. You all have been very, very quick to jump to conclusions for some reason. A few examples:

Yeah, at least that cop isn't dead
You don't know if there even is a cop.

If we go by the assumptions we've made, 3 townies, 2~3 mafia, 2~3 power roles, 1~3 3rd parties... Then, I guess we just lost 2 power roles, and the last one's probably the cop.
Same as the last one, plus I'd like to know how do you keep coming up with those numbers about how many of what group there is? There might not be any vanilla townies at all, considering the amount of PRs we already have and the fact that it's a closed setup game, so one would think there are some crazy roles. There also might not be any 3rd parties, it's still a game of Mafia even if there aren't any 3rd parties and with a game that small, I'd say it can even be pretty likely.

i'malmostcertaincaffistheSKbythispoint
So because Caff comes up with a perfectly valid point about how a 3rd kill role in a game with 10 people would be too much because it has the potential to end the game too soon, you are almost certain that she is that very same highly unlikely 3rd party kill role? I'm sorry, man, but you gotta think this through again.

What is your opinion No Lynching/Lynching. If we No Lynch, we give the cop a higher chance to live tomorrow and give us info. However we also lose the chance to lynch a Mafia during that day. If we do Lynch however, we risk lynching the cop and make the chance higher the Mafia kills the cop during the night.
>implying there has to be a cop

If we decide to No Lynch, during the night 3/8 will be Mafia. And the day after 3/7 will be Mafia. So if we mislynch here we also lose. However: Atleast in this situation the cop will have 1 extra night to get an investigation.
>implying there has to be a cop

It means one more person is dead, however that one person won't matter much because in both situations if we mislynch we lose. However today the cop only has 1 investigation and tomorrow if he doesn't die he will have two.

And a MyLo with 2 investigations is better than a MyLo with 1 investigation.
>implying there has to be a cop

And I'm pretty sure there is a cop since how else are us townies supposted to figure stuff out.
I don't know, maybe there are some other, more exotic roles in play. Although, I guess there always has to be a cop, even though it's a closed setup game which makes it ideal for messing with us and putting other kinds of roles in the game which may take the cop's place as an investigative role. And I suppose no Mafia host would ever take away the investigative roles completely, so we would have to, I don't know, use logic and analyze the behaviour of other players. /sarcasm

Can we not jump to conclusions based only on flavour texts or the fact that "it's been so in every game" or "there aren't any other options for the town than to follow the cop so there has to be a cop", please? It can cost the game for the town very quickly, especially with the decisions some people seem to be making.


Alright, /end rant so I can get to the business. Considering what happened during the night, I think it's pretty obvious. 3 kill roles would simply end the game too soon (worst case scenario with three kill roles would have five townies dead by the end of Day 1), so I doubt there are any more kill roles out there and the Mafia is now the only killing role in this game. So, assuming that Ltin didn't kill himself, the Mafia killed Ltin and Ltin killed 77.

The question that we should be asking ourselves is that who would want Ltin dead if they were mafia?


Now, regarding the question of lynch/no lynch that Notty raised. Honestly, I don't even understand why it is a question. We have to lynch today, no matter if we get it right or wrong. The next day may very well be the last day of this game, so thinning out the number of suspects could come in very, very handy. We can make all sort of speculation about the numbers of the mafia or the town or the third party, but none of this changes the fact that we already have very few people in play, and very little information to play around with which means that the fewer people we have to choose from tomorrow, the better. I can expand on this idea later if someone is confused, but I'll leave it at that for the time being since I don't have very much time to type this. Hope I made myself clear on this.


And here's a new idea for you to think about: if there should be a cop or some other kind of an investigative role, I think it'd be best if they outed themselves today. It'll get them killed the next night, sure, but at least we'd have something to go on the following day (and this day as well). It's going to be a short game anyhow and if any of you are investigative roles, then the chances of you getting killed the next night are high enough already. 1 result is better than no results at all.


One last note. Someone brought up that Coolio hasn't said a word yet. Yes, very observant of you, but you should also remember that you guys decided to end the day very quickly yesterday and Coolio was probably sleeping during the whole, what, four hours of it? Same thing today, she hasn't said anything because it's night in her timezone so I doubt she'll be doing much else than sleeping for the next couple of hours.
 

Fiestaguy

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[quote="endersteve5, post: 320102, member: 3210"On last note. Someone brought up that Coolio hasn't said a word yet. Yes, very observant of you, but you should also remember that you guys decided to end the day very quickly yesterday and Coolio was probably sleeping during the whole, what, four hours of it? Same thing today, she hasn't said anything because it's night in her timezone so I doubt she'll be doing much else than sleeping for the next couple of hours.[/quote]
I wasn't saying something along the lines of 'Bloody talk already'. It was more as in 'I'd like to hear Caitlin's opinion.'
 

Nottykitten

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Now, regarding the question of lynch/no lynch that Notty raised. Honestly, I don't even understand why it is a question. We have to lynch today, no matter if we get it right or wrong. The next day may very well be the last day of this game, so thinning out the number of suspects could come in very, very handy.
Yes thinning out the numbers of suspects would be very good for tomorrow. Except if we mislynch there won't be a tomorrow.

If we mislynch we lose this game thats it. If you like the idea of having less suspects then you should like the idea of No Lynching considering that will remove 1 suspect as the Mafia will kill someone. Then we'd have 7 people to choose from instead of 8.
 

Duffie

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Same as the last one, plus I'd like to know how do you keep coming up with those numbers about how many of what group there is? There might not be any vanilla townies at all, considering the amount of PRs we already have and the fact that it's a closed setup game, so one would think there are some crazy roles. There also might not be any 3rd parties, it's still a game of Mafia even if there aren't any 3rd parties and with a game that small, I'd say it can even be pretty likely.
I must admit, I'm still basing off the flavour text, as I said previously, mainly because it's the best thing we can go off of. I've included the power role numbers from when Kitty had brought them up before, as I actually didn't take into account that those were around.

My numbers are, in no way, accurate. It's just an educated guess.

Honestly, I feel that there is a cop in this game. It makes sense to me. Coming clean would definitely be a wise thing, as it would increase our chance of hitting Mafia based on the information, I would think.
One last note. Someone brought up that Coolio hasn't said a word yet. Yes, very observant of you, but you should also remember that you guys decided to end the day very quickly yesterday and Coolio was probably sleeping during the whole, what, four hours of it? Same thing today, she hasn't said anything because it's night in her timezone so I doubt she'll be doing much else than sleeping for the next couple of hours.
I totally agree that we went too fast on Day 0, as I really wanted everyone to have a chance to speak. Timezones are an evil thing.

Now, can we let Coolio speak before we end this day? xD
 

Enderfive

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Yes thinning out the numbers of suspects would be very good for tomorrow. Except if we mislynch there won't be a tomorrow.

If we mislynch we lose this game thats it. If you like the idea of having less suspects then you should like the idea of No Lynching considering that will remove 1 suspect as the Mafia will kill someone. Then we'd have 7 people to choose from instead of 8.
Then let's not mislynch. I agree, a mislynch can indeed lose us the game, but you're confusing a theory for a fact. Three mafiosi is a theory, not a fact. For some reason you seem to be very, very certain that we do indeed have a mislynch on our hands and I don't know if that's just because you take something for a fact because it has been repeated to death already even though we only have five pages of this game at this moment, or if it's because you know more than the rest of us.

Suppose we do a No Lynch. The mafia kills somebody. Then what?
 

Nottykitten

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Then let's not mislynch. I agree, a mislynch can indeed lose us the game, but you're confusing a theory for a fact. Three mafiosi is a theory, not a fact.
So you think that there are 2 mafia? Because that seems highly unlikely to me.

For some reason you seem to be very, very certain that we do indeed have a mislynch on our hands and I don't know if that's just because you take something for a fact because it has been repeated to death already even though we only have five pages of this game at this moment, or if it's because you know more than the rest of us.
I'm not very certain that we'll have a mislynch. But I don't want to take the big risk of mislynching today when we can have not only 1 less person to choose from but also 2 cop investigations. Why take a huge risk of lynching today when we can lynch tomorrow with less suspects and more information.

Suppose we do a No Lynch. The mafia kills somebody. Then what?
We have 1 less suspect and 2 cop investigations. Which is alot more than we have now.
 

cooliorules

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Mmk well I've caught up.

I believe there is at least one third party. Just a hunch feeling on that.
As to the others, I believe 3 mafia, 3 vanilla townies and then 3 PR's, of which we've lost 2.
That's what I believe and that's what I will believe until proved otherwise.

Now why is everyone just assuming there's a cop? No, there doesn't have to be. You can play a game without a cop. Yes, it's more difficult, but it's possible.

I don't really know what else to say as of right now.

Also yes, timezones get in the way. When I get blamed for 'being quiet' because I'm sleeping, it's frustrating and makes me want to punch a teddy. Because hitting a person wouldn't be good.
Can we all get to a level understanding that both times that this thread has opened, I've been asleep, and that timezones are going to be frustrating during the game?
Okay thanks.
 

Fruit

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Because I like to overthink things sometimes -

Notty wants to wait till tomorrow for the cop (if there is one) to out. Well what if the mafia has an investigating role. Last night they found the cop, and plan to kill him/her tonight.

Again, I'm probably over thinking it, 2 investigations are better than 1, but just something that caught my eye.
 
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