SCP - Secure, Contain, Mafia [GAME OVER]

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Enderfive

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Book of Ender said:
I. Thou shalt not vote to No Lynch on Day 0 in a closed setup game

The three reasons why you shouldn't vote No Lynch on Day 0 in any closed setup game are as follows:

1. The only party that will certainly gain something from it is the mafia.

The town must lynch in order to kill the mafia. Due to the fact that there is almost nothing certain separating Day 0 from any other day in a closed setup game, because of lack of knowledge regarding the roles, the town should make a lynch on Day 0 as well. If town does not lynch on Day 0, that means more kills for the mafia when compared to the number of kills where the town decides, and that is bad for the town because the higher the mafia kills/town kills ratio is, the less chances the town gets to eliminate mafia.

There is absolutely no way a No Lynch on Day 0 will, with a 100% certainty, bring an advantage to the town to use on Day 1. It will, however, give the mafia a night to kill without having to worry about their numbers getting thinner the day before.

2. The math speaks in favour of lynching on Day 0 if viewed from the town's viewpoint.

There are two possible outcomes when lynching on Day 0:
a) We lynch a scum, in which case the benefits are obvious,
or
b) We don't lynch a scum, in which case we have fewer suspects to choose from on the following days, thus increasing our chances of lynching a scum on those days.

Both outcomes are beneficial for the town, whereas a No Lynch doesn't give the town anything certain.

3. The voting process will give us posts and voting patterns to analyze that the town can use in the following days.

Day 0 isn't there just so everyone could get to post in the game, it's there to give the town a headstart over the mafia, which already has an advantage over the town. One of the ways it gives a headstart is by giving the town a possibility to lynch, but the process leading to the lynch is just as important as the lynch itself, if not even more important.

The discussion and votes and defenses and reactions that happen because of a real possibility of a lynch on Day 0 will give just as much information for the town to analyze as any discussion on any other day. Some players think that the best option would be to No Lynch on Day 0, but discuss things before that anyway. That, however, is not a viable option because if someone's life isn't on the line, what do you discuss? The threat of a lynch and the responses to that threat are the things that stir the game up and breed discussion, therefore a lynch is the best option to get some discussion going on that you can later use.
Click to expand...
If you didn't quite get it yet, I also recommend reading this:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=4024936


Now, on to the actual game.

myusername22 said:
Faliara, why so quick to rush through this game and pass up opportunities at vital information we will most likely need later on?
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This is literally her first game, she has little idea of the game theory so I find it quite normal for her to follow the bandwagon that has the most followers.

Although, Fali, a quick tip here: bandwagoning (following the majority just because they're the majority) is typically considered quite scummy. After a couple of dozen pages you should be familiar enough with the game to start thinking for yourself, so unless you can justify your actions with your own reasons, it's typically best not to follow a bandwagon just because it has many people supporting the idea.


Nottykitten said:
But if you want conversation, we could pose more *actual* questions for people to answer, like:
What do you think the general setup is?

I think we have:
2 mafia groups of 4 people.
1 SK and 5 other Third Parties.
And the other 16 are town.
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Yeah, no thanks. I prefer not to make assumptions about the setup. The thing about assumptions is that when someone says something plausible, it becomes more and more likely in your opinion when that same assumption is repeated over and over, so you'll have a bias towards that particular assumption over the other possibilities. It's a closed setup, it has 30 (!) roles (of which 28 are in use), so it'll be pretty impossible to make an accurate assumption about the setup, so please let's just not do it.


Yeah, that's about it for now.

Oh, and

unvote
 
Nottykitten

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In point two you only name the good consequences of lynching a towny. "we have less suspects tomorrow". Yes that is true. Because one of the town just died. But less suspects also means the Mafia gets closer to victory and we lose one of our chances to mislynch. We can only mislynch a few times in a game before we lose, why waste one of those on a random lynch.

Also again, who would we possibly pick from all 28 players playing.
 
Enderfive

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Nottykitten said:
In point two you only name the good consequences of lynching a towny. "we have less suspects tomorrow". Yes that is true. Because one of the town just died. But less suspects also means the Mafia gets closer to victory and we lose one of our chances to mislynch. We can only mislynch a few times in a game before we lose, why waste one of those on a random lynch.
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Mislynches will happen, doesn't matter if on Day 0 or Day 1 or Day 7. Day 0, in reality, is almost the same as Day 1. They're both days where there is very little information and because of that, a mislynch will most likely happen. Do you suppose we should just No Lynch on Day 1 as well? Nope, and I didn't think so. Therefore, there really is no reason why you must choose different courses of action on days that are very similar. And since there is discussion beforehand, then someone will become suspicious, someone always does and then it doesn't have to be a random lynch.

In any case, the rest of point two still stands and points one and three have not yet even been questioned, so at this moment, I'd still strongly suggest a lynch. On whom, that's a different issue.
 
myusername22

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Ender brings up some pretty good points. By lynching today we take a shot with a kill that has a chance at killing mafia (therefore giving us an extra shot we'd usually waste) but then every lynch after that also has slightly better statistical odds.

At this point I won't oppose a lynch, but I don't want a random lynch either. So the important question to ask then is who. I'll look back see if there's anything noteworthy enough.
 
Fiestaguy

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Vote Count: The one where the host is writing a story :eek:
Nottykitten: 1 (Old_Man_Oak_63) [14 more]
Ltin: 2 (Ooglie101, xXxFruitNinjaxXx) [13 more]
No Lynch/Lunch?: 9 (Nottykitten, Midnightgirl24, Dessern5, Iggy234, Raxo2222, Mad11Gab8, 77_is_the_best, Naoh, Faliara) [5 more]

28 are present, 15 votes for a murder and 14 votes for a no lynch.

If there are any miscounts/formatting errors. Please let us know!
 
CaffeinatedKitty

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Ltin said:
It more than seems
vote caffeinatedkitty
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Ok then. *cue ramble*
You see, this is the type of mistake that I feel first-time mafia members would make. People might not want to be in the spotlight because hey, if there's enough suspicion on you, then all the town claims in the world won't save you, whether you're claiming something as important as the cop or as mundane as a vanilla townie. The difference is, town members have nothing to hide, and therefore nothing to let slip. They can go, "look at my previous posts! I haven't said anything scummy, this accusation is bogus!", and if the accusers choose to listen, they'll find he or she is right. This vote may seem reckless, drastic, or hasty, but in my mind, it's the right choice. I'm not budging.
 
Nottykitten

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CaffeinatedKitty said:
Ok then. *cue ramble*
You see, this is the type of mistake that I feel first-time mafia members would make. People might not want to be in the spotlight because hey, if there's enough suspicion on you, then all the town claims in the world won't save you, whether you're claiming something as important as the cop or as mundane as a vanilla townie. The difference is, town members have nothing to hide, and therefore nothing to let slip. They can go, "look at my previous posts! I haven't said anything scummy, this accusation is bogus!", and if the accusers choose to listen, they'll find he or she is right. This vote may seem reckless, drastic, or hasty, but in my mind, it's the right choice. I'm not budging.
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Townspeople can still say suspicious/scummy things though.
 
Enderfive

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CaffeinatedKitty said:
Ok then. *cue ramble*
You see, this is the type of mistake that I feel first-time mafia members would make. People might not want to be in the spotlight because hey, if there's enough suspicion on you, then all the town claims in the world won't save you, whether you're claiming something as important as the cop or as mundane as a vanilla townie. The difference is, town members have nothing to hide, and therefore nothing to let slip. They can go, "look at my previous posts! I haven't said anything scummy, this accusation is bogus!", and if the accusers choose to listen, they'll find he or she is right. This vote may seem reckless, drastic, or hasty, but in my mind, it's the right choice. I'm not budging.
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What Notty just said. Tbh this gives off sort of a... wrong vibe. I can understand your logic, but that logic is so obviously flawed I'd expect you to understand it as well. Idk, terribly tired atm tbh so don't take me too seriously here, might back away from this statement, but here's what I feel right now.
 
std1997

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CaffeinatedKitty said:
Ok then. *cue ramble*
You see, this is the type of mistake that I feel first-time mafia members would make. People might not want to be in the spotlight because hey, if there's enough suspicion on you, then all the town claims in the world won't save you, whether you're claiming something as important as the cop or as mundane as a vanilla townie. The difference is, town members have nothing to hide, and therefore nothing to let slip. They can go, "look at my previous posts! I haven't said anything scummy, this accusation is bogus!", and if the accusers choose to listen, they'll find he or she is right. This vote may seem reckless, drastic, or hasty, but in my mind, it's the right choice. I'm not budging.
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I've proven this theory wrong before in PvC. I mean I was the doctor then for cryin' out loud and yet I still was lynched though probably cause I did such a horrible job as a doctor and I was a bit too aggressive in defending myself but still my point stands. It is possible to lynch a townie even if he hasn't slipped any.
 
CaffeinatedKitty

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std1997 said:
I've proven this theory wrong before in PvC. I mean I was the doctor then for cryin' out loud and yet I still was lynched though probably cause I did such a horrible job as a doctor and I was a bit too aggressive in defending myself but still my point stands. It is possible to lynch a townie even if he hasn't slipped any.
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Like I said, if there's enough suspicion on you, there's not much you can do to save yourself.
 
Ltin

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CaffeinatedKitty said:
Ok then. *cue ramble*
You see, this is the type of mistake that I feel first-time mafia members would make. People might not want to be in the spotlight because hey, if there's enough suspicion on you, then all the town claims in the world won't save you, whether you're claiming something as important as the cop or as mundane as a vanilla townie. The difference is, town members have nothing to hide, and therefore nothing to let slip. They can go, "look at my previous posts! I haven't said anything scummy, this accusation is bogus!", and if the accusers choose to listen, they'll find he or she is right. This vote may seem reckless, drastic, or hasty, but in my mind, it's the right choice. I'm not budging.
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K. No. But k.
I understand your reasoning. I just feel it is too logical (as in: this is the way things are and always will be).
 
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