TBD [Status: GAME OVER]

[JKangaroo]

I'll probably do the "list of people still alive and your thoughts" that Sam and Ender did later when I'm not busy but I still have some issues/thoughts with some things currently.

First of all, I still feel something is up with road, especially since my question was pretty much dodged by him. He still seems to have at least some knowledge about the cult(more than we actually know), and though it is somewhat minor, it's still something rather strange.
He somehow knows that "you loose your role" when converted even though the only person we know was cult was Duffie(and even then thats all basically know).

I wasn't aware the cult spawned with some members. I was under the impression that the leader starts alone, is there a precedent to say otherwise?

As far as I know we don't even know if the "leader" (if the cult even has a leader) does start alone, or if it started as a group of players, and so on.
I'm going to guess a few of these things are assumptions by road, but even then it still seems strange.
...Although I do agree with Ender that it's not necessarily worth a lynch.
---------
Something super minor, probably a mistake in how Ooglie worded it, however for clarification purposes:

My role is/was the Dancer and I had 3 night abilities/dances:

Was/Had are past-tense, so I was curious if something happened to your role. I'm guessing it's just bad wording because you went on saying stuff about your powers and not being able to use them because you used the knife and so on---
It's just something that caught my eye.
-----------
But speaking of Ooglie, I still wonder about that knife.
Where did it come from?
We know there are inventor roles, Notty's death proves that, and we can probably believe that people do have bombs, like ender. Outside of his investigation N1 on ender, I believe there should be 3 bombs in play currently.

However as yesterday showed there are people who got other items: Ooglie claimed to have gotten a knife early yesterday, which Notty said was not from him.
Road and Defiant also got investigation modules apparently. Road on N1 and Defiant N3. Still curious where the Knife came from since I'm still assuming based on when Ooglie announced it is that he got is N3. If we assume there's at least 1 other inventor-esq role, probably Mafia-sided or simply gives bad items (Saboteur-esque) seeing how road's investigation turned out on notty, I would assume they made these investigation modules. But that still leaves the knife as an anomaly (or if they made the knife then Defiants module would be strange) and hints at something else entirely.

I'm also curious why Defiant investigated Notty, especially after(at least I recall...) road saying he used his module to investigate Notty which came out as Guilty(?), and why another investigation would be needed, especially if these modules are bad, as was thought yesterday.
Not only that but claiming to have visited Notty also opens up the possibility of you being the one who killed Notty. It's a possibility I don't really believe in but it's still a possibility nonetheless.
----------
I currently believe that the number of claims so far are alright(just the number, not necessarily believing their claims)
Out of 24 players...
10 people are/claim to be 3rd parties: (5 dead, 5 alive) = 10
9 people are/claim to be townies (5 dead, 4 alive) = 9 (theres probably 1 more townie)
And we know 1 person was Mafia.

I think the 10 town/10 3p/4 mafia seems balanced enough and seems like it aligns with how the game has turned out so far with so many 3p.
Not counting any current claims or cult conversions or whatever, but at least in a vanilla, "game just starting" sense, it seems like a good guess.
But that's just my theory, probably not true, but meh.

I don't know if there's any more thoughts I have, but I should probably get back to work. I'll probably do what ender/sam did later and get our thoughts on everyone out there.

 

[Fruit]

I feel like people just claiming 3rd party (i.e. Jolteon and road) are just trying to by themselves time to try and make up a role. I just think if you're gonna claim, claim, it seems... too easy to just say you're 3rd party at this point.

Only an FOS for now, but just something I was thinking.

 

[The Road to Ruin]

I feel like people just claiming 3rd party (i.e. Jolteon and road) are just trying to by themselves time to try and make up a role. I just think if you're gonna claim, claim, it seems... too easy to just say you're 3rd party at this point.

Only an FOS for now, but just something I was thinking.

Fine, but I can't claim everything.

My role is that of a lyncher, I win if my target is lynched and lose if s/he is killed any other way or is alive at the end of the game.

 

[Fruit]

The obvious first thought that comes to mind is that it was Notty and you lost, but I could always be wrong/probably am.

 

[Mia]

I'm trying to make a post but I'm quite busy until the weekend sorry

 

[Samlen]

Random bit I'm throwing out, (partially since the town seems practically determined to not talk...), but If I were to have a 'largest' fos, I would have to say it'd be Jolt for right now. No any particularly good or solid reasons, just that he has been inactive and what little he has said has not given off strong town vibes. Take this as you will, I'm mostly throwing it out there because we've had almost 23 hours since anyone has even put up a message, much less tried to create discussion...

 

[Fruit]

I was trying to take a look and see who didn't vote for digi, but I think that vote was just too close to the deadline because a lot of people didn't.

Also I would try to get all of your opinions on this. How was their 4 deaths the one night, and now 2 last night? I myself have no clue really, maybe a SK? cult can kill? Vigilante? Why 4 the one night though and 1 the rest of the nights until tonight?

 

[Jolterino]

Random bit I'm throwing out, (partially since the town seems practically determined to not talk...), but If I were to have a 'largest' fos, I would have to say it'd be Jolt for right now. No any particularly good or solid reasons, just that he has been inactive and what little he has said has not given off strong town vibes. Take this as you will, I'm mostly throwing it out there because we've had almost 23 hours since anyone has even put up a message, much less tried to create discussion...

It hasn't been giving off strong town vibes cause I'm third party.

 

[Enderfive]

I was trying to take a look and see who didn't vote for digi, but I think that vote was just too close to the deadline because a lot of people didn't.

Also I would try to get all of your opinions on this. How was their 4 deaths the one night, and now 2 last night? I myself have no clue really, maybe a SK? cult can kill? Vigilante? Why 4 the one night though and 1 the rest of the nights until tonight?

Mafia + Myuser's weakness gave 2/4 of the kills on the first night. The other two, I don't know. On nights 2 and 3 there was probably only the mafia kill (or if there are other kill roles in play, then Caff and any other possible protectives have done a good job so far). Could be that there are roles in play that could only kill once, or roles that had to have certain conditions met during the day in order to kill during the night. Maybe the cult can kill, although then the following question pops in my head: why haven't they done it every night or every odd night (they get together on odd nights, as we've learned from Duffie's role description)? Just to note, I find the killing cult theory unlikely.

Also, amnesia and the abudance of third parties in this game has led me to believe that it is nearly impossible for us to come up with any accurate assessements of the number of different roles and factions in play. I think we can safely say there's more third parties than mafia, with the way they've been popping up and the way that town roles have died so far. There may be more third parties than town, there may be (and I actually find it likely) more third party than town and mafia combined.

That said, I feel like we can find one or two mafia in the third party claims. The ones that say only that they're third party and nothing else are more likely to not be who they say they are, and the ones that have claimed their role with no apparent reason to do so are also more likely to be lying, in my opinion. According to that logic, Jolt seems to be the most likely to be lying. He has also been one of the more quiet people, which would fit the idea of scum in shadows. However, the more I go over Road's posts, the more I get a gut feeling (nothing more that I haven't already said) that he is a part of the cult.

We got a deadline coming up and I'm probably going to vote either Road or Jolt, but I'm not sure which one.

 

[The Road to Ruin]

I'm not part of the cult.

There, the lie detector can verify me and so can 77.

 

[Defiant_Blob]

If I claimed my role I'd be useless.
I investigated Notty to see if every investigation module was the same. If I'd known that Notty would die, I would have investigated someone else tbh.

 

[JKangaroo]

...The other two, I don't know. On nights 2 and 3 there was probably only the mafia kill (or if there are other kill roles in play, then Caff and any other possible protectives have done a good job so far). Could be that there are roles in play that could only kill once, or roles that had to have certain conditions met during the day in order to kill during the night. Maybe the cult can kill...

Seeing as this is slowly appearing to be a fairly item-heavy game, I had the thought that perhaps the multiple deaths on the first night could have resulted from people starting off the game with items either at random or fixed. Someone could have had a working knife or gun or some sort of item that let you kill a targeted player, or if you died let you make a kill on whoever you wanted (I believe some kind of wiki-role does something like that), or someone with a bomb.
Actually, now that I think about it, considering catgirls testimony so far, although it's a stretch mayhaps she has some kind of granny-esq ability or role which could explain maybe 1 or both of the 2 other deaths, seeing as 3 of the players who died N1 had the ability to visit other players. In fact I have a hunch that may be the case.

I'm going to list my thoughts on the current players like Ender and Sam have since I promised that before and its a good way to get our thoughts together... I also italicized(like ender) who I find the most suspicious or likely for me to vote on with the nearing deadline.

• 77_is_the_best - Neutral. His amended claim seems one of the most plausible considering the circumstances and as a third-party(especially if the win condition is tied to them), however the more I look back on it, claiming directly after Duffie's death and pretending to be the one to have killed her and is affiliated with stopping the cult is also making me feel it was all too convenient...
• Cooliorules - Unclaimed and not suspicious purely because I've hardly seen coolio... which could be suspicious in its own right.
• Jolteon42 - Unclaimed outside of third-party claim. Similar to coolio, I've hardly seen Jolt.
• endersteve5 - I've believed Notty's cop claim from the beginning and seeing as it turned out (relatively) true, I still lean toward ender being either town or third-party.
• Samlen - Alongside coolio, sams the only one who hasn't really claimed anything, and so if I based my opinion on the lackluster "look at who hasn't claimed something with a plausible # of each alignment and see who's left as suspicious" theory, then Sam would be on there. Since it's still a terrible theory, and although quieter than usual but remaining active if not the most vocal, there isn't much to be suspicious of Sam.
• the road to ruins - Still feel like he's hiding something since many of his posts feel like he knows more information than is letting on or that the remaining players know.
• Ooglie101 - Is he human? Or is he dancer?... Similar to 77 the general premise of his role feels plausible, but it feels like there's something off about the role, but that's mostly a case of arguing semantics. I'm still curious where that knife came from.
• Caffeinatedkitten - Considering Tim visited Caff N2 and from what he said in our inn that he did get a point toward his win condition, so Caff did visit someone, I feel confident Caff is probably telling the truth about her protective role, and is also probably town. Nothing that serious otherwise.
• JKangaroo - Bonjour
• xXxFruitNinjaxXx - Claimed Sexy Survivor. Still suspicious about the alliteration of the role considering the names so far, and seeing the extremity of the roles so far, I find it strange that such a vanilla role would exist without some kind of extra tidbit to the role. But that's all speculation and so at the present time unless something comes up I'll stick with his claim and remain a third-party and inn buddy.
• Mad11gab8 - Lie Detector. Was the one that caught 77 in a lie so I feel like Mad is pretty pro-town along the same lines as Caff.
• Defiant_Blob - Quieter than most games I've seen him and he hasn't quite taken the forefront of discussion, but still active enough. Even if I disagree with some of his stances, I don't really have an opinion on him. Did claim to be town with a night action that's been hinted in his posts... which has me curious.
• catgirl(numbers) - An anomaly. Okay no, now I'm almost certain my theory I stated above about cat is correct. I direct everyone to what she said back on Page 82:

Alpha targetted me night 1. Nobody targetted me night 2. That's all that happened. If it wasn't obvious by my statement on the last day correcting the speculation on Alpha's actions and a thing I said in the inn last night about you knowing what happens to me, I can see who targets me at night. There's more to my role but I'd rather not claim yet, sorry.

Seeing as Alpha also DIED Night 1... unless someone also targeted Alpha, I'm almost certain they died by cat's hand, which could also explain why (at least I'm pretty sure cat was the one who was saying this) she didn't want townies visiting her during the night. Cat's been one of the quietest players this game, so I don't have the best opinion of her, at first the vague claims felt strange, but I feel my opinions are slowly solidifying in favour of cat.... but I still find quite a bit about her as curious....
And then there's also this I noticed looking back at her posts:

...actually wait a moment, I just noticed this. Jivvi was compulsory bodyguard. He HAD to have targeted someone tonight to protect. And he dies if they get hit. That's...an interesting detail. He didn't die from mafia directly. He took a bullet for someone. I don't know if that's any useful info. Maybe to try and figure out who mafia was trying to kill to protect them/figure out their strategy. I dunno.

This is something we can look back on and perhaps catch a lead on a Mafia member.
Although we can't be certain Jivvi died via. protection, since it seems he could've been just as likely been targeted himself, if we assume he WAS killed after protecting someone, we could possibly track someone (first the person who was defended, then possibly to the culprit) in a similar fashion to what happened with myuser.
It's... certainly not as concrete as myuser's role since that went directly to the killer rather than having a middle-man like this one... but it's something.

I'll be looking back at somethings Jivvi and some others said and look into that theory, as perhaps we will find a potential lead.

 

[JKangaroo]

And, if I'm not mistaken, the deadline is at 12 pm on the 31st, which is either 3-4 hours from now or somewhere around 12 hours from now... at least judging by the converter I was using.

So c'mon guys, we don't have much time left. Let's get those thought bubbles brewing for some discussion.

 

[77thShad]

idk who to vote, I will probably just random vote one of the unclaimed when I get up in the morning

 

[CaffeinatedKitty]

Idk who to vote either really... Though I have it agree that road is rather fishy.

 

[cooliorules]

I'm not going to be able to make a proper post between now and the deadline :/
I'm so sorry that I've been quiet, I haven't had anything to add in all honesty. I don't have much of a thought process going around now either seeing it's nearly 10pm and I have to be up in the morning (though not hella early).

If I was to vote anyone, it would be Ooglie. It's really only a hunch. I just don't believe his dancer claim at all. Not sure what it is, but it rubs me the wrong way. I'll actually go find his post now and read it through again.

 

[cooliorules]

Does anyone happen to know what page he claimed in?

 

[cooliorules]

(don't worry I got it)

 

[cooliorules]

Well, the Knife killed nobody, but was most definitely a fake.

My role is/was the Dancer and I had 3 night abilities/dances:

The Ballet - 'Dazzles' whoever visits me, blocking night actions except for kills.
The Tango - Tells me anyone who visited me that night.
The Jazz Dance - Delays all night actions used on me including kills.

I can not use the same dance twice in a row so I have to alternate, and using the knife meant I was unable to perform one that night. The ones I have used are:

Night 1 - Tango (I received that nobody visited me)
Night 2 - Jazz
Night 3 - Ballet
Night 4 - Knife

Like I said, the knife killed nobody, the target (which was Coolio <3) or myself but it did paralyse me meaning I am unable to perform night actions. I don't know whether this affect is permanent or temporary or whether it can be healed buuuut cooliorules were you affected in any way?

The whole post (mainly for my convenience)

I've read it and I have a few points that I would like to bring up.

My role is/was the Dancer and I had 3 night abilities/dances:

So this is the first part of his claim. If you were to skim over this, it would seem alright. Once I looked at it again properly, I noticed these 2 things:

is/was

And

had

He uses past tense, as if something has happened to his role.
I will admit, it's not the biggest thing that's happened this game, but my gut feeling is that he was recruited from the cult.
Now I know, we haven't got too much to worry about with the cult (well we do, but mafia is of a higher priority), but we do need to eliminate them as far as I know.

I can not use the same dance twice in a row so I have to alternate, and using the knife meant I was unable to perform one that night. The ones I have used are:

You may think there's nothing wrong with this, but I read it over and I've noticed this:

I can not use the same dance twice in a row

can not

Present tense.

Which one is it, Ooglie?

Regarding the knife:
As far as I know, and what I'm going to assume here, is that it was a fake (basically given) and that the side-affect was himself being paralysed.

Overall I don't believe Ooglie's claim and from my point of view, he would be the best person to lynch as of now.
Therefore:

vote Ooglie101

If there is a counter to my arguments, then I most likely won't be able to remove my vote due to myself most likely sleeping and I apologise.

 

[cooliorules]

That's the only thing I really have any thoughts on for now.

 

[Mooglie]

is/had = I was paralysed which may be temporary or permanent so I basically have no power to use abilities, which is why I used that tense.
can not = was reading over role PM and rephrasing so it wasn't exact.

Still, Coolio is my most suspicious and seems a bit too eager to lynch me...
understandably, I tried to kill them since they're my biggest FoS right now.

Also~ I just realised something after looking over my actions and realised I used Jazz Night 2 and Ballet Night 3, meaning I don't think I was sent the knife on Night 3 but rather Night 2, but it was delayed to the third night.

 

[Samlen]

Top fos's for me are Road and Jolt for right now (for reasons stated earlier). Now considering I figure Road is more likely to be a part of the cult than mafia and that we can have 77 double check on that tonight, I think I would feel more comfortable about lynching Jolt for now. Other than that, I was certainly hoping for a bit more discussion than this, with barely 3 pages of discussion, we are certainly not going to be able to find the rest of the anti-town at this rate. So until otherwise noted, I'll

Vote Jolteon42

 

[Enderfive]

Interesting. Very interesting indeed.

vote Cooliorules

 

[CaffeinatedKitty]

Interesting. Very interesting indeed.

vote Cooliorules

Reasoning?

 

[77thShad]

Gonna vote Jolt or coolio still tossing up between the two.