Republic - Completed

Nottykitten

Nottykitten

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Aqua said:
I didn't answer this because the point is null. Regardless of whether you're the rev or not if you don't kill a mafia tonight or can't give evidence to support it was your doing then you're also going to lose as we will lynch you.

If you are indeed the rev you need us as much as we need you so threatening to cost us the game really isn't in your power so Ooglie101 or Infected_alien8_ really shouldn't be fooled by them.
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Let me make this very clear for you.

1) Currently the 4 council members will be: Aqua, Ender, Fali and Notty. #FACT

2) We have 22 players today. #FACT

3) Tonight 112 dies, the Mafia will kill someone(likely Ender since I can't) and I will kill one of Dess/Roob/Oog(a confirmed town PR).

4) Tomorrow during the day we will have 19 players left.

5) These 19 players tomorrow will consist of: 1 Revo, 6-7 Mafia and 11-12 Town.

6) Then you lynch me.

7) The night after the poisoned person dies + whomever the Mafia nightkills dies.

8) The day after 16 players will be alive which consists of: 6-7 Mafia and 9-10 town. This is a MYLO situation

If you mislynch, during the night there will be 15 players!

A poisoned person + a Mafia kill happens.

During the day there will be 13 players! If the Mafia consis out of 7 people instead of 6 then the town has L O S T because 7 is more than half of 13!

I've numbered them so you can point out which ones you disagree with, if any. This proves that my best course of action tonight is killing a town member because then the town has the following choices:

A) Lynch me and be forced into a MYLO situation which town realistically never wins especially if the Granny is alive.

B) Form an Autocracy, keep me alive and work with me since in order to win I need to get rid of Mafia sooner or later.

Option A is a losing play for the town which means town is going to go with option B and I will survive. The option I'm giving you now is to get ahead of this scenario tomorrow, and get town into a better position by either lynching someone else tomorrow or going autocracy tonight.

If town don't choose to gain an edge over the Mafia now then you will have the two above options tomorrow.
 
Aqua

Aqua

Does anybody remember laughter?
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Aqua said:
Hunter was arguing you were using misleading numbers to try and convince people who didn't/couldn't do the calculation for themselves which, in hindsight although I believed it at the time, you did on purpose.

Hunter wasn't supporting an autocracy without a massclaim, no one was.
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Infected_alien8_ said:
It proves aqua's point wrong that hunter's discovery of notty's flaw meant notty's argument was detrimental to town

that's the whole reason we were discussing it
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I mean you were right, as I misremembered/misread what notty was arguing but in hindsight notty's response to hunter is retarded and doesn't counter what either of us were saying.
 
Mooglie

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Aqua said:
It's called calling her bluff oog.

If she can prove she's rev then we may not lynch her tomorrow.

If she can't/kills a townie then we do lynch her. Why are you being so stubborn to let notty do whatever she wants and just have town "rely" on her.

This is way less likely for the game to turn out in towns favour than it would to just lynch her and carry on, on our own.
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????????

HOW WOULD WE NOT LYNCH NOTTY TOMORROW
 
Rune

Rune

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Aqua

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Does anybody remember laughter?
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Nottykitten said:
6) Then you lynch me.
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If notty is rev (she isn't so sadly this won't work but we will have killed maf which is good), from this point on we can gamble on autocracy, the risks of not knowing the identity of the night kill remain, however mafia are unable to prevent us from doing this as. If they kill the 3rd dictator everyone loses as notty will be dead.
Nottykitten said:
7) The night after the poisoned person dies + whomever the Mafia nightkills dies.
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Poisoned person is notified of being poisoned and can request the aid of the toxicologist who will, at this point, have claimed. We set up the tracker on the toxicologist, meaning if the bus and granny are still alive and swap the toxicologist we reveal the granny and can get a 1for1 trade.
Nottykitten said:
8) The day after 16 players will be alive which consists of: 6-7 Mafia and 9-10 town. This is a MYLO situation
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after 2 days and peoples reports/night actions occur this scenario can't be confirmed nor denied. Hopefully we will have a better idea of who could/is confirmed mafia from subpoenas or observer etc. night actions, plus some mafia night actions may have been blocked by inffy.
Nottykitten said:
I've numbered them so you can point out which ones you disagree with, if any. This proves that my best course of action tonight is killing a town member because then the town has the following choices:

A) Lynch me and be forced into a MYLO situation which town realistically never wins especially if the Granny is alive.

B) Form an Autocracy, keep me alive and work with me since in order to win I need to get rid of Mafia sooner or later.
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Option A) like I have proven is a very possible situation if we keep our whits about us and play well like I have shown above.

Option B) As I have stated is FAR more likely for town to lose than option A) due to these very sexy reasons:

  • There is a 43.75% chance of the dictator dying tonight by mafia alone, this value increases if the dictator is targeted by the rev.
  • If the dictator dies we will lose. Due to the size of the council we will be forced to go autocracy again as otherwise whoever we wanted to lynch would force a dictatorship with full view of who the dictator was, if the rev is still alive at this point they have a 1/3 chance of killing the dictator which is uncomfortably high, increased more so if mafia target the 3 candidates.
  • As mentioned a million times before, even if we do survive the night and get a dictator kill and a lynch, we may have shot ourselves in the foot as the dictator kill isn't revealed.
  • Notty isn't the fucking rev jesus christ - this would cause mafia for the second night in a row to know who the dictator was, would mean if we don't lynch notty we'd be shooting in the dark for our next kill, could easily hit a townie as no evidence other than vibes currently exists.

If you see a flaw in any of this let me know I didn't put huge amounts of thought into it but it should hold tighter than that shambles of a list notty posted once again assuming an ideal situation for her without question.
 
Nottykitten

Nottykitten

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I would still like Aqua, Danni and everyone else who thinks lynching me tomorrow is the best option to review my post at the top of this page and tell me how ending up in a MYLO situation with the granny presumably alive is a good outcome for the town.

Sploor has brought up how our side hasn't really provided a good alternative to me, and while Oog has pointed out Rune I'll go ahead and give you all some solid logic why we SHOULD put Rune into the council to lynch him tomorrow.

1) Aqua (unCC'd aka proven) has said he tracked Inf and that Inf visited Hunter.
2) Inf (unCC'd aka proven) has said he roleblocked Rune.
3) Either Rune + Hunter were switched, or Inf + Gula were switched. I realistically see no reason for the Mafia to switch someone with their Gula because getting granny kills is much more favorable, so I find the first one much more likely.
4) If Rune and Hunter were switched, this means that the Mafia most likely wanted anyone who visited Hunter to visit Rune (while they Murdered Hunter via Rune). This makes Rune a very likely Granny.

We know Aqua and Inf are unCC'd so neither of them are lying about their actions unless Inf is doing some Inf thing again. This essentially gives us a very high chance Rune is the Granny. It really depends on whether or not you want to be in a MYLO in 2 days but if you don't then putting Rune in the council is your superior play. There Sploorky I hope this satisfies you.

Unelect
Elect: Ender, Jivvi, Notty, Rune
 
Mooglie

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Aqua said:
Poisoned person is notified of being poisoned and can request the aid of the toxicologist who will, at this point, have claimed. We set up the tracker on the toxicologist, meaning if the bus and granny are still alive and swap the toxicologist we reveal the granny and can get a 1for1 trade.
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mafia have a blocker
blocker can block tracker
'but you can watch the tracker'
surprise now this is pointed out im dead by notty tonight GOODBYE GUYS x_x
still worth it in the long run!
 
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