Pretty sure the Innocent Child would've already been revealed. Meaning we either have no Ms is setup determination, or the other most likely result, 2. (Not to discount the slim chance of more) But the Masons if any will learn that tonight, so it's moot right now.
I can't believe this game is making me brush up on my statistics knowledge in preparation for the inevitable setup shenanigans. According to the Pigeonhole Principle, we're guaranteed a doubled letter somewhere. Would be pretty interesting if that were the Masons.
...but yeah this is all moot until night comes aaaand that's sensitive information to give out willy-nilly anyway.
I wish I had anything to say but instead I'm just rambling about math.
...but yeah this is all moot until night comes aaaand that's sensitive information to give out willy-nilly anyway.
I wish I had anything to say but instead I'm just rambling about math.
Anyway, I'll just pop some of the stuff which I've thought I'd point out cause why not:
Onto some things which I've worked out - please challenge this if any of it is wrong:
1. This setup has a 50% chance of generating an SK
2. Depending on the field, and excluding the SK (if they're there) in the calculation, we may have:
In the event of 2 Mafia:
Town - Mafia = 11 - 2 = 9
Number of direct mislynches if nightstart = 9 / 2 = 4.5
Because of daystart -> 4.5 + 0.5 = 5 mislynches
[Aka 5 mislynches/Townie killed not directly due to Mafia possible but -0.5 per abstain/no-lynch]
In the event of 3 Mafia:
Town - Mafia = 10 - 3 = 7
Number of direct mislynches if nightstart = 7/2 = 3.5
Because of daystart -> 3.5 + 0.5 = 4 mislynches
[Aka 4 mislynches/Townie killed not directly due to Mafia possible but -0.5 per abstain/no-lynch]
Please check my math it sucks and it's nice to have it verified.
3. If there is an SK, -1 mislynch from that pool.
4. People have discussed this, but we have no innocent child in this game. This means that either 0 Ms were rolled, 2Ms, 4Ms or 5Ms, as Timdood pointed out, meaning:
a) No masons exist
b) A mason trio
c) Two mason pairs
Now onto my questions:
1. Should we lynch or should we no-lynch today? Why?
2. Ranking the three possible Mafia roles top-down, which role would be the most dangerous role which we should get rid of first?
3. Should the masons claim (if they already are here) today to narrow down claimspace?
4. Should we lynch Inffy and toxicologist Alisha for insurance? (sorry bad inside joke forgive me)
Onto some things which I've worked out - please challenge this if any of it is wrong:
1. This setup has a 50% chance of generating an SK
2. Depending on the field, and excluding the SK (if they're there) in the calculation, we may have:
In the event of 2 Mafia:
Town - Mafia = 11 - 2 = 9
Number of direct mislynches if nightstart = 9 / 2 = 4.5
Because of daystart -> 4.5 + 0.5 = 5 mislynches
[Aka 5 mislynches/Townie killed not directly due to Mafia possible but -0.5 per abstain/no-lynch]
In the event of 3 Mafia:
Town - Mafia = 10 - 3 = 7
Number of direct mislynches if nightstart = 7/2 = 3.5
Because of daystart -> 3.5 + 0.5 = 4 mislynches
[Aka 4 mislynches/Townie killed not directly due to Mafia possible but -0.5 per abstain/no-lynch]
Please check my math it sucks and it's nice to have it verified.
3. If there is an SK, -1 mislynch from that pool.
4. People have discussed this, but we have no innocent child in this game. This means that either 0 Ms were rolled, 2Ms, 4Ms or 5Ms, as Timdood pointed out, meaning:
a) No masons exist
b) A mason trio
c) Two mason pairs
Now onto my questions:
1. Should we lynch or should we no-lynch today? Why?
2. Ranking the three possible Mafia roles top-down, which role would be the most dangerous role which we should get rid of first?
3. Should the masons claim (if they already are here) today to narrow down claimspace?
4. Should we lynch Inffy and toxicologist Alisha for insurance? (sorry bad inside joke forgive me)
I like how the first few messages are just blind voting +.+
Fog did kinda spend a lot of time into making that #VOTEINF thing surprisingly well, but Alisha did start everything by voting for Inffy knowning that Inf would retaliate making him look sus, or it could just be pure guess to start things off
Fog did kinda spend a lot of time into making that #VOTEINF thing surprisingly well, but Alisha did start everything by voting for Inffy knowning that Inf would retaliate making him look sus, or it could just be pure guess to start things off
1. Lynch because it gives reads which are very valuable
2. Mafia roleblocker for sure - no guarantees a godfather would be relevant in a setup that may not contain cops
3. Mmmmm not sure yet - leaning towards no but then again I can see why it would help. Undecided for now
4. I'd rather commit insurance fraud thanks. (Maybe just Inffy)
1. What reads do you think we will get and why do you think they will be valuable? What kind of information do you think we will get, by, for instance, lynching a villager in this setup?
2. Okay
3. Okay
4. You'll go to JAIL
I hate statistics with the BURNING PASSION OF A THOUSAND SUNS...I thought you loved statistics?
...which is why I have to applaud Choco for going into it way more than I ever did.
1. If I remember correctly, statistically it'd be preferable to lynch, as much as I hate doing so with almost nothing to go on.
2. Definitely Roleblocker. Godfather can't do anything extra except misdirect whatever cops may or may not be present. Roleblocker can do some damage depending on what roles are in play.
3. Nope. I think that any masons should try to keep quiet.
4. Ah, excellent, I am completely out of the loop on every single inside joke for the past 2 years.
Not guaranteed we would lynch a villager - maybe we get lucky and hit a mafia by lynching. However if I go along with your premise that we lynch a villager, we get more information on everything the lynched person said and retroactively know they're clear + we can look at who lynched this person and evalulate on who we think was an ignorant townie and who we think knew we would be lynching an innocent.
Of course, you already knew all of that, but I needed to elaborate since you asked me that question~
1) I would say a lynch is almost always positive as it helps us get a read on players and could also work out very well for the town as we could reduce the threat, however, this could go south like it did the last C9 game where Inf acted like scum and got lynched as the Cop.
2) I would say Roleblocker is the biggest threat as the other two don't have too much of an impact on the game in regards to investigations/protection (yes I know GF will be shown as town but that doesn't prevent a heal).
3) I don't think they should claim yet if they do exist as this might have a negative effect, I think the earliest they could claim is perhaps day 1 when they will have had the chance to speak to each other and perhaps come up with a question and answer tactic for proving that they are town. (Something that we could question the other potential Masons about to back up your case if one is murdered)
4) I am always up for an Inffy lynch. However, I do often feel bad for his games ending so shortly after they begin, so I am tempted to unvote him and let him live to see at least one day.
MoltenAshes
Member
1. I am actually a person that leads towards a no-lynch, unless someone scummy appears.
2. I think the roleblocker is the most dangerous, but if any Mafia becomes appearent, it's of course best to get rid of them first
3. I wouldn't reveal D0
4. Ah the meme Lynch. If they appear to become scum, sure, but I'm not specifically targeting anyone from the start due to name alone.
1) I'm not quite sure what most of this means, but it sounds like it's beneficial to lynch.
2) I don't really get why you're asking this question, It's not like we have a way to know their specific role before lynching them. We don't have the luxury of choosing what mafia roles to get rid of, we kill what we can.
3) Absolutely not. However, I like the idea of one of them claiming tomorrow saying how many there are.
4) Unovte
Aaaaaaa I'd rather no-lynch. Why? Because in 90% of the cases we end up lynching a townie. Yes, you could argue that the "reads" and other stuff helps us find the scum - yet I've encountered that these reads become outdated and useless once day 1 start. Most common I think is people who argue for lunch because of the reads and then come with zero/small reads (Inffy).
2. SK, if you count that a Mafia role. The other roles don't matter since we'll lynch them in "random" order.
3. No, I think we should withhold as much information as possible on the first day.
About massclaim and general claiming:
We(town) might gain information from it - but so does the Mafia. Remember that this is a semi-open setup, therefor a massclaim will be difficult to handle for town.
Why?
A mass claim would be silly. The mafia would know the setup with only a small amount of uncertainty due to the potential of SK.
As for individual claims, they should be done when important and/or helpful information becomes available and/or relevant.
To elaborate on this slightly, the town would have still some idea of the setup, but it won't be entirely accurate because we can't tell which claims are false, while the mafia would obviously have that information (SK notwithstanding).
The more information we give out, the more information the Mafia/SK can use to find out who to nightkill.
1. As it currently stands we have a whole (as in integer) number of lynches. Not lynching takes 0.5 off that number... meaning, if we no-lynch at some point in the game the Town can be put into a LYLO situation at 0.5 mislynches nearing the end. This isn't necessarily bad and I personally would be leaning towards a lynch over a no-lynch, unless we are somewhat certain that we will no-lynch again some point in the game or if we do not have a good lynch target.
2. Rationale behind this question is to get people's opinion on how dangerous they think the Mafia are or could be.
3. A mason claim is hardly counterable, and if a mason gets killed early but has claimed it would essentially prove the other party. However, as other people have pointed out said claim happening tomorrow or later in the game could be more beneficial to the Town than if it happens now.
Can you answer my questions?
Weak and Timdood bought up some points regarding massclaiming and I completely agree with them that it would be harmful to the Town. The Mafia knows what roles they have, the Town does not for themselves. A massclaim would give the Mafia information on how the Town's field looks like but not vice versa.
Also Infected_alien8_ you've been pretty quiet unlike the first C9++ game here. What are your thoughts?
1. Lynching is inevitable, at the end of the day someone has to be lynched.
2. Probably the God Father, he's dangerous but also the top
3. No.
4. I don't know why you guys are lynching Inffy first, and I personally think theres more of a reason to lynch Alisha than Inffy
Before we put down a vote entirely though I would suggest maybe have the rest of the players take a look at this before casting a vote. We're still very early in the game and it's best not to bandwagon until we can make an informed decision.