C9++ - Game End - Mafia Win

[Timdood3]

Before there are any assumptions as to what happened during the night, I'm gonna claim. I'm aware it's probably not going to be widely believed, but I want to get the information out there before people get confused. Also, there's a lot to get into, so forgive me if I miss something or if I seem a bit all over the place.

I am a 1-shot vigilante. I used my shot last night on fantome. I'll discuss why I chose to shoot later in this post, but for now: setup analysis.
We had a cop. [It boggles my mind that he didn't put up more resistance or claim, but what's done is done] That's CC.
We have me. That's V.
That leaves 4 more spots. Which means mafia has a roleblocker 100%.

We've seen in the number of kills [unless a doctor got lucky or a blocker hit SK] that there isn't an SK. That's good news. Bad news is that all of our possible setups have 3 mafia.

I chose to use my shot last night because I wanted to make sure it didn't go to waste. Knowing for certain that mafia has a blocker, I knew I wouldn't be able to get my shot off after claiming, and I didn't want to waste that resource for town. It sucks that I was wrong about fantome, but his reason for hammering Ernie was the straw that broke the camel's back for me. He said "town's not getting anywhere if I don't vote" after I said I'd vote before I left. I killed who I thought was the most suspicious out of the last few votes on Ernie. The silver lining is we're guaranteed at least one, probably two mafia in that group.

 

[Alisha]

My thoughts on the deaths;

Lynching a power role was the one thing I didn't want happening, what the heck people I wanted to lynch fantome (at least he was only a vaniller townie)

fantome dying would be weird for mafia or SK to do since he would be a viable mislynch at any time with how he acted, so for now I'm willing to trust Tim's claim. Yes I know Tim said there's no SK but there's that tiny chance he's lying and just trying to gain goodwill with the town - but he seems genuine so far.

Okx was presumably the mafia target which is another weird choice imo, but maybe they thought he was a power role and were wrong

 

[Alisha]

For reference

Shadow_hunter3, ChocoFox, Alisha, Fantome, MoltenAshes, Catgirl12467, Fog

 

[Timdood3]

It also occurred to to me looking back that when Ernie said he was "just observing" everything, that that could've been a cop soft-claim. I certainly didn't pick up on it, but that doesn't mean the mafia didn't, and used it as an incentive to lynch him, imo raising the likelihood of there being more than one mafia on the Ernie train.

 

[Alisha]

MoltenAshes and Fog read the most to me as scum out of those seven.

Fog made a couple posts and used memes to fit in a lot during day 0, and his reads seem the most weird out of the group consensus. (Which by itself isn't a bad thing, but combined with the memes I feel like something's off)

MoltenAshes led the lynch on people under the excuse of lynching inactives, and from looking at his posts they give me a 'I'm going to say something interesting and slink away back into the darkness' vibe




Honorable mentions;
Unusual_Dood for that one big post he made which upon a reread didn't actually have that much substance (didn't vote ernie but I wanted to remind everyone about how he plays)

ChocoFox is slightly on my radar again but not as much as the other two I just mentioned

 

[TheWeakGuy48_]

I'm short on time, so I'll keep it short. The two that stood out as potential scum for me yesterday is Fog and Alisha. I'm 85% sure Fog is mafia because he didn't craft his own ideas, rather I just felt like he just clinged on to whatever was more popular at that time. I'm 50/50 on Alisha being scum, she has been very eager to lynch multiple players, out of whom we know at least 2 is town (Fantome & Ernie). However, her voting made some sense at that time, and felt like it could be a genuine town play. I was also pretty sure about Tim being town, and his claim made me even more certain.

 

[Unusual_Dood]

We've seen in the number of kills [unless a doctor got lucky or a blocker hit SK] that there isn't an SK.

Well assuming you are telling the truth there could be a SK if:

- Doctor saved either Serial Killers or mafias target
- Role blocker blocking SK
- Mafia or SK killing Fantome
- Mafia and SK both killing Okx
- SK killing okx while mafias killed SK with bulletproof (and therefore didn't die)

 

[catgirl12466]

Damnit, that is the LAST TIME I put a vote in to help reach majority. The one freaking time I try to be decisive instead of abstaining.

So, in the lynch list, the people that tripped my suspicion a bit were Molten and Fog.

Don't really have justification for Fog. Just seemed like they weren't contributing to the conversation, saying stuff off topic... I kinda brushed it off as a less serious playstyle.

Molten... I dunno. Something about how hard they were going at Alisha for flipflopping rubbed me the wrong way, along with pushing for the Ernie lynch.

Secondary to those two were Alisha and Shadow_Hunter, but I can't for the life of me remember why. Gut feeling, I guess.

 

[MoltenAshes]

Reading back on the people who lynched Ernie yesterday, there's one person that I thought was scummy, Catgirl.

"If Ernie happens to be town, I'm going to be mighty sus of Chocolate and co."

Almost seems like you knew Ernie was town, and

 

[MoltenAshes]

Wanted to use that as a leverage for another mislynch

vote catgirl

 

[Fog]

his reads seem the most weird out of the group consensus

I'm 85% sure Fog is mafia because he didn't craft his own ideas, rather I just felt like he just clinged on to whatever was more popular at that time

Wanna make your mind up people? I can safely say I’m not mafia, but if you wanna lynch me it won’t be massively detrimental to the town as I’m not a PR.

I’m less sus of Tim after his claim, however, we will wait to see if any more double deaths happen. Although technically he could hold off until the end of the game and slot your throat when you least expect it.

I would say Choco is my main suspicion at the moment but Inffy is also up there as he survived the night which is very unusual :thinking:

 

[Timdood3]

if you wanna lynch me it won’t be massively detrimental to the town as I’m not a PR.

Every town member we lynch is massively detrimental to town. We're pretty much down to a numbers game. It's very unlikely that we have more than 1 or 2 PRs left (not counting myself since I've used my only shot). Maybe we have a doctor, or maybe there's another cop or vigilante out there, but to get use out of them knowing that once they claim they're basically never getting to use their ability again is like shooting fish in a barrel.

I'm gonna break down the numbers here for us. There are ten players alive. Exactly three of them are mafia, we know this. If we do lynch a town member today, we'll be at 3 mafia / 9 players going into the night.
Morning comes, we're down to 3/8.
If we mislynch again, we lose because that puts us at 3/7, and 3/6 (or one half) in the morning.

We have two mislynches, let's not need them. What I think everyone should do is pick their top three suspicious players, who they think the mafia are. And I will ask that no one says "I only think these two people are suspicious." It's ok to be wrong in these guesses, I just want people answering questions.

My guess for the mafia team (in no particular order) would be:
Alisha
Shadow Hunter
Unusual dood

 

[TheWeakGuy48_]

My guess for the mafia team:
Fog
Alisha


Not really sure about the last one, either Choco, or Molten or catgirl. If I had to choose right now it'd be catgirl, with really no particular reason except small-ish suspicioun. I don't really think it's too likely Choco is mafia tho. Time will give us the answers.

 

[TheWeakGuy48_]

I also would like Shadow_Hunter3 , ChocoFox , Alisha , MoltenAshes , catgirl12466 & Fog to give their opinions after the lynch that took place yesterday, and what their thoughts are as Ernie ended up being town. Those who supported a Fantome lynch can also explain their reason of thinking Fantome was scum, and what you learned now that he is dead and proven town.

 

[Shadow_Hunter3]

My guess as of now

Alisha
Molten
either fog or choco

 

[Alisha]

My guess for the mafia team:
Fog
Alisha


Not really sure about the last one, either Choco, or Molten or catgirl. If I had to choose right now it'd be catgirl, with really no particular reason except small-ish suspicioun. I don't really think it's too likely Choco is mafia tho. Time will give us the answers.

Was anybody listening to me when I named Fog and Molten as my primary suspects already

 

[TheWeakGuy48_]

Was anybody listening to me when I named Fog and Molten as my primary suspects already

It's possible to bus though.

 

[Shadow_Hunter3]

I also would like Shadow_Hunter3 , ChocoFox , Alisha , MoltenAshes , catgirl12466 & Fog to give their opinions after the lynch that took place yesterday, and what their thoughts are as Ernie ended up being town. Those who supported a Fantome lynch can also explain their reason of thinking Fantome was scum, and what you learned now that he is dead and proven town.

I dont really understand why he barely defended himself, which only made me feel more sus of him. We gave him quite a while to do so, did get cut short by fantome, but still he had a while.

 

[Alisha]

Also, Molten put out a vote for catgirl which reads to me as a distraction from his own suspicious actions

 

[Shadow_Hunter3]

Also, Molten put out a vote for catgirl which reads to me as a distraction from his own suspicious actions

also felt like this, since there's not that much suspicious about the message of catgirl, or at least I didnt think there was

 

[Infected_alien8_]

well that's unfortunate


looking back over yesterday, two things stand out to me

First, MoltenAshes can you run me through your thought process yesterday please? Why did you unvote from ernie after saying you thought he was scum, and then why did you choose to re-vote him again? That whole voting movement smells bad to me

Second, TWG's behaviour feels slightly like he knew what the result of that lynch was going to be

Second point, the Ernie lynch-train is getting waaaaay too much traction. If everyone thinks back at their first game - I think our main focus was to survive (at least for the first days) and not to eliminate the mafia. Especially when the game is filled with experienced players who take the lead. Of course this doesn't mean they shouldn't contribute, just that people here seem to exaggorate the Ernie thing.

Ernie, they've been much in the spotlight lately, I don't think the Mafia would bring this much attention up to one of their one, which makes me believe they are town. However at the same time, they have been acting strangely, granted I see this as a reason for it being their first mafia forum game, and I don't think we should lynch them. Light town read.

*cue 'disliking' every post voting for ernie*

It just feels slightly too strong for me. I don't get much of an impression that TWG thinks ernie could be mafia and he could be wrong about him. I understand his reasons for defending him but at the same time he's ignoring the possibility that the mafia didn't put this attention on one of their own and its all the town doing the work and found mafia, and the other mafia are the quieter players. I didn't pick up on this yesterday but looking back it feels like a weird tunnel vision of ernie being town, which isn't something town usually do, especially on day 0, because they don't *know* who to trust so there's usually at least some self-doubt, even if it's tiny. And I dunno, I just don't feel that from TWG at all. He also feels too eager to excuse ernie's strange behaviour off as normal instead of giving some weight to the possibility that it is actually a clue to his alignment.

I don't feel strong about this per say since it wouldn't be the first time I've completely misinterpreted TWG's actions but I can't ignore this feeling I have that there's actually something to this

TheWeakGuy48_ if you could give me some insight into what was going on in your mind here that'd be great please

Meanwhile I believe tim's claim and I agree that fantome's hammer was suspicious so I don't blame you for killing him

I'm short on time, so I'll keep it short. The two that stood out as potential scum for me yesterday is Fog and Alisha. I'm 85% sure Fog is mafia because he didn't craft his own ideas, rather I just felt like he just clinged on to whatever was more popular at that time.

Can you give some examples of where you got this impression from?

My guess for the mafia team (in no particular order) would be:
Alisha
Shadow Hunter
Unusual dood

TWG
Molten
Alisha

Why do you think shadow and unu?

 

[Alisha]

It's possible to bus though.

I was talking about that I already mentioned my reads despite you pinging me

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Why do you think shadow and unu?

oh and alisha* since you were townreading her yesterday

 

[Infected_alien8_]

My guess as of now

Alisha
Molten
either fog or choco

Also can you give me your reads list please, and why didn't you give it yesterday?

 

[Alisha]

I believe Tim's claim but TWG is reading to me as unnecessarily jumpy and aggressive