If you lynch me you waste a lynch since if town drops to be outnumbered by maf, then they lose.
If you take all maf out, i cant win unless i am 1-1 with the last townie.
Thats why town is better off leaving me alive since im no threat until end game to them. The ones who should be concerned about me is mafia, since i pose the biggest threat to them.
Just an idea, but we can't win unless we vote out all of the thirdparty/mafia, but why are we attempting to take a random shot when we could at least take out Infernofox (the hangman) right now. If 77 is the SK then good for us, but what if he isn't we could be eliminating two citizens today and tonight. (1 today, 1 or 2 tonight) we could be down three. We could just come out with a third party kill then a single citizen in the night. I am just horrible at mafia truly with me always being an "on the fence" person with neither swaying one side or the other. I would think the wiser choice to be to eliminate the threats we have in front of us.
The reason I'm not voting inferno is because he could possibly be our last chance to win. Inferno could give us a possible extra "vigilante" shot. To win Inferno must be the only survivor along with 1 townie. So it would make no sense for him to not try to take out the mafia/SK. Because he needs atleast 1 townsperson alive to win. And he won't have that chance to win if the mafia/SK stay alive. Therefor helping the town right now is his only chance. And because he helps the town, I see no reason to lynch him. He could even help us.
Have you actually killed anyone in the game, Inferno? o.o
Anyway, I have to agree with Notty and if he does get a shot he can actually kill the SK/mafia if they exist since well third party means they're just working for themself. And in the end of the day as we get to the end when he's lynched and all townies remain the town win. COULD THIS BE THE FIRST MAFIA GAME IN FOREVER WHERE THE TOWN WINS? HOPEFULLY!
Okay, I am going to seriously bet that one of those two kills were Inferno's since he voted for 77 yesterday which implies the fact that he would want him dead since he predicted the kill that night and K1ng was the one who put suspicion on him.
The mafia's and/or SK's motives (if the mafia is alive and in the group of the 3 suspects) are obvious, if they kill Theo then that prevents them from being investigated (so I am going to be the SK is the only scum in the group since the Mafia would want Theo to be alive so they can be confirmed non-SK) so that means they cannot be investigated and turn up as the SK and the others in the group cannot be proven innocent.
Now we're left with a very difficult situations since we have 2 main choices for lynching today which is:
a. Inferno.
Why? Most likely killed K1ng last night meaning nobody is safe plus if they get the right one today they get a kill and if there are 2 more kills the game will be left at 4 people so if the Hangman doesn't kill the SK with his kill they can team up so it's SK and Hangman vs Inno and Inno and then it will be left at a randomizer decision and if the innocents die the two of them will win and if one dies via the randomizer then whichever one is left can kill overnight so it's 1 inno and 1 scum meaning that the scum wins.
b. Me/Fruit/Jinks
Why? Although a 1 in 3 chance it is literally confirmed that one of us is the SK due to results from MarsKid's night where he posted which role killed who and since there has been no death for the SK yet we can be guaranteed that the SK is 1. Not Inferno since he confessed to being the Hangman and 2. Not Notty or Storm since they turned up as Citizen which means they're either Mafia or Citizen which means it is left in the remaining 3 pool.
WHAT DO WE KNOW? We still don't know Alpha and Brown's roles. The SK and Mafia both attacked after Alpha and Brown died, so we know one of them wasn't the SK. So we know: The Serial Killer is alive.
We know: The Hangman is alive.
Therefor we know: Alpha/Brownlee could not have been one of those.
We also know: Besides the hangman/SK there is only 1 non-town role left. All other mafia died, and there can only possibly be 1 mafia alive.
Therefor we can conluce: Atleast one of Alpha/Brownlee was a villager.
Since the only possible other role they could have been is 1 mafia. Therefor the other HAS to be a villager. Which means there can only be a total of 4 villagers alive right now.
So what do we further know: There can only possibly be max 4 villagers left alive. Since there were a total of 14 villagers in the beginning and 10 have died. [Ltin, (Alpha or brownlee), Road, Std, Coolio, Thymos, Myuser, Natsu, Mario, 77]
So what does difference does this make? Absolutely nothing. But I just wanted to share with you that one of them was a villager.
After Jivvi died, there was only 1 kill during every night. [Except last time where inferno killed someone]. I think it's safe to assume the mafia is dead.
As I see it, there are 5 possible endings to this day.
#1: We lynch Ooglie/Fruit/Jinks and this person was innocent.
#2 :We lynch Ooglie/Fruit/Jinks and this person was innocent. This was also Inferno's Hangman target.
#3: We lynch Ooglie/Fruit/Jinks and this person was the SK.
#4: We lynch Ooglie/Fruit/Jinks and this person was the SK. This was also Inerno's Hangman target.
#5: We lynch Inferno.
I'm gonna try to see what will happen during each possible ending.
They were innocent. Well shoot ;-;. There are 5 people left during the night. Only 1 kill since Inferno didn't get his target. During the day there will be 4 people left. It's presumed that inferno is kept alive.
After this there are thus 4 people alive:
Inferno+3 other people are alive, it will take 3/4 people to lynch. If the SK is lynched during the day, it all depends on wether Inferno guessed the right person. If not he will get lynched the next day. If he got it right he wins.
If the SK is not lynched during the day, the SK most likely wins.
They were innocent D=. 2 kills during the night leaves us at 3 people left during the day. Things really depend on who Inferno and the SK take for their targets. If one of them picked the other the Town has the bigger chance to win. If not then the town will have lost.
This person was the SK. WOOOOO. No kill during the night and we kill inferno during the day.
This person was the SK =D. 1 kill during the night leaves us with 4 people the day after. It takes 3/4 people to lynch, but that's no problem since 3/4 are town and the fourth is Inferno =D.
Bye bye Inferno xD. 1 kill during the night leaves us with 4 people during the day. It takes 3/4 to lynch. 3 town's and 1 SK. We don't know who the SK is. The town has a 25% of winning, and if they mislynch they lose.
So a recap of the possible situations:
#1: Town will most likely lose.
#2: Town has an average chance to win. Depends on the targets of Inferno and the SK. If inferno kills the SK then the town wins. If the SK kills inferno then its a 33% chance the town wins. If neither kill each other the town loses.
#3: Town will win.
#4: Town will win.
#5: Town has a 25% chance to win.
Note: No-Lynching will probabily destroy any chance the town may have of winning. So we shouldn't do that.
Conclusion: The town does have a chance to win, but it mostly depends on Inferno. Situation #2 and #4 seem like two good options, and therefor I want one of those two to happen. And for that to happen, we will lynch Inferno's target. So inferno tell us who your target is and I will vote this person. You can ofcourse choose to lie about your target, but that will make either situation #1 or #3 take place. Both are not that good for you .
If you don't lie, situation #2 or #4 will happen wether the lynched person is SK or not. There is a 33% that we get the SK and situation #4 happens. Which means you have a 33% chance to lose. [You still have this chance even if you lie/don't speak, as we still have 3 people we can chose from to lynch]. If we don't lynch the SK, you make your own luck and everything depends on wether you guess stuff right =D.
I'm leaning on da jinks a bit more, just because of his playing style. Most of the days he would immediately vote Jivvi, then usually end up unvoting and going with something else. Just seems weird to me
Oh damnit I didn't mean to hit enter. Anyways I was thinking about lynching inferno, but no that wouldn't work out right. ( does it still count as a town win if it's hangman and one town?)
Anyways obviously ooglie thinks it's me or jinks, jinks thinks it's ooglie or me and I think it's da jinks or ooglie.
It really depends who notty and storm trust the most.
Notty, ooglie, I'll read your posts when I get home I can't read with all bye damn bumps on the road . Typing this was hard enough
What o__O. The front page of the signup thread says this:
"For the Hangman to win, he must be alive when the Mafia is eliminated OR when the Mafia equals half of the remaining players."
Are you lying to us Inferno? Because if what the front page of the signup thread says is true, it means the mafia is still alive. Otherwise if the mafia is dead Inferno would have won already and the game would have ended/we would have gotten a message about it.
So now I am confused and would like to know which of the two is true =S.
That is a good catch notty, I must admit I myself missed that.
I want to add on to that role description for the sake of clarity, since it is too late to now suddenly change it to how it should be. So the following is a clarification:
For the Hangman to win, he must be alive when the Mafia and all other Third-Party-Roles are elminated. He wins the moment the last Mafia and/or Third Party player is dead.
(It isn't how I would have set the win conditions, but like I said, too late to now suddenly change the rules, so we have to live with them)
Okay, so now we have a set winning condition we can see that if we do lynch one of the 3 suspects and they come up as SK, we're doomed. We're not gonna kill storm or Notty since well erm I think it's pretty much confirmed that all the Mafia are dead due to the change in winning conditions for the Hangman and we're not gonna waste a day on no-lynching. The only logical thing I can see here is to actually lynch the Hangman since we still have a 1 in 3 chance of lynching the SK tomorrow which in my eyes is much better than lynching him today since well lynching the SK today would be a massive disadvantage for the town since Inferno would insta win.
DOWN THE WITH THE THIRD PARTY, UP WITH THE TOWN, HUT HUT HUT *pats chest several times*
"For the Hangman to win, he must be alive when the Mafia and all other Third-Party-Roles are elminated. He wins the moment the last Mafia and/or Third Party player is dead."
So now I can basicly ignore all I said. Since if we lynch the SK, Inferno wins.
I think the town's best bet is to just ~let it go~ and No Lynch. Let's see what the SK does. He will probabily kill Me/Storm. But then again every time the SK kills a towny Inferno gets closer to winning.
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