Русская мафия! [Complete]

JKangaroo

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myu said anyone who visits his target dies
Oh, right. >, <
For some reason I remembered it as if they visited myuser. All I remembered clearly was the "visits = kill" bit. Woops.
...Well it was a piss-poor theory anyways that I just threw out there and I actually believe Aqua's claim based on the paragraph I said before in that post. :p

Anyways, conspiracy theory time.

So Notty was the "Soviet Spy"right? Since the anti-townies seem to be rather anti-government groups or just out for themselves, I guess the town is basically normal citizens of the Soviet Union.
So I guess Notty was a town role.

Since Notty was a spy though, and her death was redacted, specifically in Red, I'm going to take a guess and say Notty was "apart of the Mafia" and knew who they were but probably couldn't say anything or else it blew her cover and so had to slowly guide the town to see who was the most suspicious by pretending to be something she wasn't?
And so maybe Notty's death was at the hands of remaining live Mafia because they found out?!
So maybe we just have to follow the breadcrumbs Notty left?!?
...

It's a conspiracy theory so its a bit crazy and I just thought of it now. x)
But if it turns out I'm right on the money, can I just say, oh my god Notty how do you get so many insane roles every single game. It's like, your's is always the one that brings surprises.
 

erik5456

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Welp caff is lying scum vote for them please. Reason im saying this is because they visited notme last night alongside both jivvi and our good friend mastersen who also seems to be scum since he's a "one-shot" PM. Mastersen is most probably scum as well but didnt blatantly lie trying to get attention off himself. Realistically we lynch caff or mastersen from my info. And jivvi is the gun is an item can it only successfully kill once or what? Cuz if so and its gone from your inv then you definitely killed. If not though then you werent the killer and one of the two mentioned above are. Gotta give props to caff thought. Claiming that type of role and simply using dead people as your investigations is very convenient. Was almost believable too.
Vote CaffeinatedKitty
 

JKangaroo

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Welp caff is lying scum vote for them please. Reason im saying this is because they visited notme last night alongside both jivvi and our good friend mastersen who also seems to be scum since he's a "one-shot" PM. Mastersen is most probably scum as well but didnt blatantly lie trying to get attention off himself. Realistically we lynch caff or mastersen from my info. And jivvi is the gun is an item can it only successfully kill once or what? Cuz if so and its gone from your inv then you definitely killed. If not though then you werent the killer and one of the two mentioned above are. Gotta give props to caff thought. Claiming that type of role and simply using dead people as your investigations is very convenient. Was almost believable too.
Vote CaffeinatedKitty
So both Caff and Master would be scum then? :eek:
Or at least, both would be lying about something, Caff about whoever they visited last night and Master lying about not using their "one-shot" last night since they visited?
Something along those lines, right?

I'll wait for cat's report and Caff's retort but I think we have a decent idea of who to go for today.

Also, can you link/repeat your roleclaim again, I cant find it; since I know you're a "watcher" but also a ghost? There was something about ghosts, right? I just want a refresher (since I can't seem to find it o .o) to try and build up a hunch/theory I have currently.
 

erik5456

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Well then, I didn't know that counted as a visit, though I suppose I should've. Mastersten can back me up on this. Last night, the two of us and raxo were in an inn together. It apparently meets every three nights, so we didn't know about it before.
Im calling bs since i saw jivvi visit raxo as well. Also this just seems like a cover up for your and mastersen which makes me think youre both definetily scum.
 

Hunter

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hey actually since cat is busy

let's think about this:
jivvi could be using the virgin claim as a front for his maf role
he could have just killed tonight. seems a little suspicious, getting lucky on a 1/6 chance first try.

and if he's telling the truth, we won't have to worry about five more deaths tonight. plus we get four more reports.
cat, caff, erik, and tim.

hell, with these deaths, we might even be in the last day.
lynching jivvi guarantees a tomorrow.

vote jivvi
 

myusername22

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"Overwhelming evidence" that can all be easily explained otherwise. When I don't reply, I am either reading but too busy to get my thoughts together into a post or I don't have anything worthwhile to say. And if you recall, we have more than one protective role, so it's very likely that a kill and a protect coincided.
The argument is fair, but I really still feel like you've been right at that activity/contribution level that tends to resemble a mafia lurk pattern. Whilst I don't doubt that you've probably been reading, I can't accept that it is the entirety of the story. Besides, It's not just that you don't talk much, but also that your posts don't look like they are determined to find the truth. You are my day 0 scum read, and I tend to have good luck with day 0 reads.

Furthermore, Duffie was a roleblocking protective role, whom roleblocked you that night. If we assume for a moment that 77 isn't lying you're forgetting that 77 also claims to have visited erik that night( again we're assuming he isn't lying). To give some credit to him, lets pretend there's some kind of driver that drove him away from erik that night. This would mean that a driver redirected his night action. If that were the case he could've protected someone, but that's two protective roles compared against two nightkills. lets say my protection of erik took out samlen, which i think is the most likely explanation for the days events. I believe there were 18 players in the game that night, so you expect me to believe a driver, which is already an unlikely role made a 2/18 chance (2 protective roles out of 18 players) of picking a protective role and a 1/18 chance of blocking a kill in that way. The odds of this occuring are 1 in 162.

ok yeah raxo was definitely me what are the odds.

1 in 6
I also believe a 1/6 chance is definitely possible, but still unlikely. I find it much more likely that you killed raxo than Jivvi getting a 1/6 shot on raxo.

Welp caff is lying scum vote for them please. Reason im saying this is because they visited notme last night alongside both jivvi and our good friend mastersen who also seems to be scum since he's a "one-shot" PM. Mastersen is most probably scum as well but didnt blatantly lie trying to get attention off himself. Realistically we lynch caff or mastersen from my info. And jivvi is the gun is an item can it only successfully kill once or what? Cuz if so and its gone from your inv then you definitely killed. If not though then you werent the killer and one of the two mentioned above are. Gotta give props to caff thought. Claiming that type of role and simply using dead people as your investigations is very convenient. Was almost believable too.
Vote CaffeinatedKitty
Well then, I didn't know that counted as a visit, though I suppose I should've. Mastersten can back me up on this. Last night, the two of us and raxo were in an inn together. It apparently meets every three nights, so we didn't know about it before.
This argument is going to be Meta, but I highly doubt there would be an Inn that meets every three nights. Inns are supposed to be an important part of the game, and with the number of killing rolls in the game we're already down by half the people on day 3, so basically the Inn would meet at most twice? While it isn't 'impossible' such an inn could exist I find it unlikely prizyms would bother including such an inn because it's doubtful it would have much of an effect in the game.

That's not even taking into account that it is doubtful an inn would count for night visits. like hunter pointed out, that would have the potential to break the game in some areas(what if i'd visited cat?)

so at this point believing your claim comes down to believing that:

there is a driver in this game
there is an inn that meets every third night
Inn chats count as night visits
the driver who just happens to be in this game redirected 77 and ended up protecting someone from a mafia kill (the odds of this are 1/162 or in otherwords 6%)
Jivvi took a 1/6 chance and killed raxo on the first try
All of your investigations just happen to be dead ( Btw protip: if you're going to fakeclaim just say one is dead and then claim one or two people innocent. Literally nobody will walk forward and say "No! You're wrong, I'm mafia" )

All of these are unlikely, and yet believing your claim hinges on the insanely unlikely scenario that all of these events are simultaneously true.
 

CaffeinatedKitty

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The argument is fair, but I really still feel like you've been right at that activity/contribution level that tends to resemble a mafia lurk pattern. Whilst I don't doubt that you've probably been reading, I can't accept that it is the entirety of the story. Besides, It's not just that you don't talk much, but also that your posts don't look like they are determined to find the truth. You are my day 0 scum read, and I tend to have good luck with day 0 reads.

Furthermore, Duffie was a roleblocking protective role, whom roleblocked you that night. If we assume for a moment that 77 isn't lying you're forgetting that 77 also claims to have visited erik that night( again we're assuming he isn't lying). To give some credit to him, lets pretend there's some kind of driver that drove him away from erik that night. This would mean that a driver redirected his night action. If that were the case he could've protected someone, but that's two protective roles compared against two nightkills. lets say my protection of erik took out samlen, which i think is the most likely explanation for the days events. I believe there were 18 players in the game that night, so you expect me to believe a driver, which is already an unlikely role made a 2/18 chance (2 protective roles out of 18 players) of picking a protective role and a 1/18 chance of blocking a kill in that way. The odds of this occuring are 1 in 162.


I also believe a 1/6 chance is definitely possible, but still unlikely. I find it much more likely that you killed raxo than Jivvi getting a 1/6 shot on raxo.



This argument is going to be Meta, but I highly doubt there would be an Inn that meets every three nights. Inns are supposed to be an important part of the game, and with the number of killing rolls in the game we're already down by half the people on day 3, so basically the Inn would meet at most twice? While it isn't 'impossible' such an inn could exist I find it unlikely prizyms would bother including such an inn because it's doubtful it would have much of an effect in the game.

That's not even taking into account that it is doubtful an inn would count for night visits. like hunter pointed out, that would have the potential to break the game in some areas(what if i'd visited cat?)

so at this point believing your claim comes down to believing that:

there is a driver in this game
there is an inn that meets every third night
Inn chats count as night visits
the driver who just happens to be in this game redirected 77 and ended up protecting someone from a mafia kill (the odds of this are 1/162 or in otherwords 6%)
Jivvi took a 1/6 chance and killed raxo on the first try
All of your investigations just happen to be dead ( Btw protip: if you're going to fakeclaim just say one is dead and then claim one or two people innocent. Literally nobody will walk forward and say "No! You're wrong, I'm mafia" )

All of these are unlikely, and yet believing your claim hinges on the insanely unlikely scenario that all of these events are simultaneously true.
You're assuming they didn't go for me. I don't know if they did, but I did have Duffie protecting me--and of course, it's always possible that 77 is lying about his target.
And I believe it's part of Erik's role as a ghost that allowed him to see us, something I forgot earlier. He's not a normal watcher, and I think it's very possible that he sees everyone who interacts with his target.
It is supremely irritating that all of my investigations, even the one that didn't go through, are dead, but I'm not going to lie about what I did, jfc. And you're forgetting, I look for ability to kill, not alignment.
A 1/6 chance is not impossible either, for the record. I don't know how he managed it, but ah well.
Mastersten
 

myusername22

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You're assuming they didn't go for me. I don't know if they did, but I did have Duffie protecting me--and of course, it's always possible that 77 is lying about his target.
And I believe it's part of Erik's role as a ghost that allowed him to see us, something I forgot earlier. He's not a normal watcher, and I think it's very possible that he sees everyone who interacts with his target.
It is supremely irritating that all of my investigations, even the one that didn't go through, are dead, but I'm not going to lie about what I did, jfc. And you're forgetting, I look for ability to kill, not alignment.
A 1/6 chance is not impossible either, for the record. I don't know how he managed it, but ah well.
Mastersten
Huh, these could all make some sense. at least some sense, but I still think everything is really unlikely. In any case though, I'll go with hunter.
hey actually since cat is busy

let's think about this:
jivvi could be using the virgin claim as a front for his maf role
he could have just killed tonight. seems a little suspicious, getting lucky on a 1/6 chance first try.

and if he's telling the truth, we won't have to worry about five more deaths tonight. plus we get four more reports.
cat, caff, erik, and tim.

hell, with these deaths, we might even be in the last day.
lynching jivvi guarantees a tomorrow.

vote jivvi
He's right. Either Jivvi is lying or we'll wake up tomorrow with more reports and no dead

Vote Jivvi
 

catgirl12466

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*insert rant about university and life*
I was hoping to write something more substantial to make up for day 2, but with the time I take to post and my impending workload, I'm just gonna suck it up and get this out there before bed, and hopefully come back tomorrow with an actual contribution.
I watched Timdood. Notty showed up. Don't know how useful that information is, given we have no idea how Notty's role worked or what it did... I doubt Tim is some kind of granny either.
Sorry, it's not super helpful to current discussion at all.

What else... I confirm with 77 that Infected was the final member of the potato inn. We're the only ones left.

Myu, that potential driver might exist somewhere. Personally, I think it's quite likely with how my ability got switched on N1. I'm not so sure about the rest of Caff's claim, though.

Maybe we could discuss that a little before immediately jumping to lynching Jivvi? Like, discuss stuff first, lynch later? Jivvi can potentially buy us a day, sure, but what's the use of getting an extra day if we're wasting this one?
 
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