Right, well, since my shitstain of a laptop decided it's not going to charge anymore, then I'm afraid I'm still forced to do this on mobile.
***
When the day started, people were bouncing around this idea that Inf was being framed by the mafia via the nightkill on hipman. I find that highly unlikely. When trying to frame someone, the obvious option is to kill a person who had suspicions on the target, not someone who the target was suspicious of, since it's much easier to see why a mafioso would want to get rid of a player who has been putting suspicion on them as opposed to wanting to get rid of a player that they were trying to get rid of anyway. To me, this means one of two things happened:
a) Inf is mafia
or b) the Vig was the one who killed hipman and the Doc successfully saved the mafia victim.
Let's look at both options. If Inf was a mafia, killing hipman would actually be a pretty smart move. Hip wasn't exactly a player who was known as someone who's strong and might pose a threat to the mafia. He was also under suspicion from Inf, so killing him would be at the same time such an obvious connection between Inf and Hip, while at the same time it would be such a perplexing move to make as a mafioso, that it would be hard to see any mafioso actually do it. Taking that into consideration, Hip would indeed have been a great target for Inf, since the logical assumption would be that Inf wasn't the one to do it. That, however, would require some serious logic analysis before performing the kill, and I'm not sure if Inf with his rash and impulsive playing style would actually do that. There is, of course the possibility, that Inf isn't mafia and the actual mafia were trying to frame him after all, but that would rely on someone actually biting through this piece of mindgaming, not to mention that they'd have to actually come up with it in the first place. While I could see a player like Notty as someone who's capable of that, then I still think that's unlikely, since the levels of mindgames are just too much for a N1 kill.
That leaves the second option, then: Hipman was killed by the Vig and the Doc succeeded in saving the mafia's victim. Obviously the mafia must have tried to kill someone, so if the Vig did kill Hip, then that means the mafiakill was somehow blocked. Only way to do that in this game is the Doc healing their victim, so if we assume the Vig theory is correct, that means the Doc made a prudent choice this night. As for why the Vig decided to kill Hip or decided to kill him at all, well, there's a number of reasons I could think of. It could've been a random kill just to see if he got lucky, it could've been that he believed Inf's theory of him being a scum, it could've been that he was already suspicious of Hip even without Inf's theory, it could've been any combination of the three or something else entirely. The thing to note here is that in order for this scenario to be true, two things must have happened: the Vig decided to kill in the first place, which isn't that unlikely, but it's not a given either, and second, the Doc had to get their save right. It's a pretty big if, and so we have three unlikely options for what happened during the night. I personally find Inf being mafia the most likely, but my gut tells me it was the Vig who killed Hip.
It's important to note that the two options aren't mutually exclusive: Inf could still be mafia even if the mafiakill didn't go through and the Vig was the one who killed Hip, and it's also entirely possible that the mafia and the Vig both targeted Hip.
***
I'm townreading Caff and Unu right now. Caff is being calm as usual and Unu made some pretty good points in that big post of his. No opinion on Aqua, Mulb, HKC and Oak.
Oog is being his usual self, as far as I'm concerned. Same goes for Notty. However, I am seeing a faint connection between Oog, Notty and Inf. More on that later.
No opinion on Foggy, though I did notice he very slightly defended HKC when Inf attacked him and is now pushing for a lynch on Inf, as is HKC. Not quite sure what to make of that.
Am interested in seeing how the thing between Iggish and TWG plays out.
Samlen is uncharacteristically quiet, at least in my opinion. Makes me wonder if there's something going on there.
Anyway, as you can see from my previous post, I've been analysing some patterns when it comes to suspicions and such and I found some interesting stuff. It's possible I missed some suspicions or such, but here's what I gathered:
-Seven people had multiple suspicions against them:
Inf - HKC, Iggish, Foggy, Aqua, Ender
Sam - Inf, Iggish, Ender
Ender - Inf, Notty, Oog, Foggy
HKC - Inf, Unu, Iggish, Oog, TWG
Aqua - Inf, Oog
Iggish - Inf, Unu, Notty, TWG, Mulb
Unu - Notty, TWG
-From there I started comparing suspicions and found that five pairs of players had the same suspicions on multiple occasions:
Notty + TWG -> Iggish, Unu
Iggish + Inf -> Sam, HKC
Inf + Oog -> Ender, HKC, Aqua
Notty + Inf -> Ender, Iggish
Iggish + Ender -> Sam, Inf
Inf was in three of those pairs, Notty and Iggish both in two. Now, since Iggish has expressed suspicion in Inf and vice versa, I'm guessing we can assume we can strike that possible team off. Now, you guys don't really know if I'm mafia or not so I'll understand if you decide to keep the pairing with me and Iggish up there, but I personally know I'm not mafia, so I'm taking that off my radar as well. That leaves me with:
Notty + TWG -> Iggish, Unu
Inf + Oog -> Ender, HKC, Aqua
Notty + Inf -> Ender, Iggish
What's interesting to note here is that Notty's, Oog's and Inf's suspicions clash at only one spot, despite there being seven different suspects between the three of them. The disrepancy comes with Unu, where Notty is suspicious and Inf is townreading him. Perhaps it's also worthy of mention that Inf only townread Unu after his long post, to which Notty has not yet responded.
Then there's how Inf, TWG, Oog, Iggish, myself, Mulb and Aqua were the ones to have suspicions only on people others did too (although Aqua and Mulb both have only had one suspicion, and as for me, again, I know I'm not mafia so I won't personally waste time analysing that).
Another thing I noted when going back was how Notty slightly defended Inf when he was getting heat in Day 0. What Notty said made sense, but it still kind of stuck out to me.
Also interesting was how between Notty, TWG, Inf and Oog, there were no suspicions among each other and how, when I removed the obviously false pairings (obviously false for me, at least), they were the only people who were in the pairings. The fact that of those four, three had expressed suspicions against me, HKC and Iggish, who I sort of recall as the people who pushed the most against Inf is also interesting.
To conclude, I don't really have too strong opinions about anyone, but I am noticing some things going on between Notty, Inf and Oog, and possibly TWG. When we add Sam, who's been a little strange, or Oak, who I have a gut feeling about, then that just about rounds out my hypothetical mafia team for the time being, so without further ado:
vote Infected_alien8