please explain to me why i, town or otherwise, should care about the cult leaders surviving or not even slightly
explain how, otherwise you might as well be saying that the sky is red and human beings have seven legs and you'd have about as much credibility as you do now
The biggest reason why I think we should keep the cult leader, is that they can give us information, if they are helping the town, which I find likely.
While they are a third party and want most people in their cult, they need the rest of the players in order to do so. Since they only can convert one person each night they would have to try to survive the longest to convert most players. I believe it would be safer for a cult leader to convert someone they don’t think is a mafia, since the mafias could target them. Therefore, I believe people converted are people the cult leader trusted after the first dramatic day.
Here are some specific information cults can give us (there might be more which I have missed):
- When a player first is converted to a cult, that player know for sure that he is a cult leader and not a mafia.
- If a cult leader wants to convert someone but it did not happen while the player was not killed, then the cult leader knows for sure that one of the two following things happened: he tried to convert the other cult leader or the player was chosen by both cult leaders.
- The cult leaders also have a slightly better chance of knowing if the player they had converted was a mafia, since they cannot convert the other cult leader.
- People in a cult can eliminate the other members of the cult off the list of the other possible cult leader (if there are many in the cult, this may help).
I know that these are small advantages but believe that the talks inside each cult are the most important, while I cannot give any specific examples. It might be easier to spot patterns and such I believe and share them with smaller groups of people. At least this early in the game, I do not believe that cults will try to help mafias (if not forced), as they might be lynched by townies.
When keeping the townies we actually get some more specific information to work with, which also could make it much easier to figure out who’s mafias. I believe the reasons for keeping the cult leaders hidden are bigger than revealing them, and I find you attempting to get people to do so, suspicious.
Like, I have said before I do no longer believe the odds for lynching a mafia was 5/16. Even if we got a hit on a mafia I believe that it is very unlikely we would reach 9 votes (“because people away, people who did not want to lynch, people who defended or did not find the guy suspicious enough, and most mafias would not vote for him”). I find it more likely that we would only be hitting a town- or cult player, and therefore believe the stats for the lynch would be somewhere near this instead: cult leader 2/11, normal villager 6/11 and PR villager 3/11 (cop, vigilante and doctor). I therefore think you pushing for a lynch first day was beneficial for the mafias.
Also, I would assume that it is likely that either 3 or 4 mafias was helping the lynch. So, it feels like you are stepping in the wrong direction when you now go against players who did not contribute in the lynch (the only one who did was weak). This makes me suspicious
Infected also had some good points about Ender, so right now I am wondering if I whether should vote for Iggish or Ender.
