Okay, coming with some thoughts...
I will first to start with why I believe Caff was killed.
Currently the Mafias most of all want to kill the vigilante. As I have said before I believed that the Vigilante could have decided to not kill the first day, (or the vigilante killed Hip, or the cop saved the vigkill). If the vigilante actually did decide to not kill the first day, it could mean that, as Caffe said well herself:
if we consider that route and not the doctor-was-successful one, that would mean the vig would be one of the more careful players among us
One of the more careful players would probably not go for a lynch the first day. There was 12 people who voted for a lynch first day, while 9 of them was for a jivvi-lunch (as from what I can see. Correct me if I am wrong). If we now look at the people who did no vote that day we find: Mulbery, Jivvi, Caffe and Ooglie. Since Jivvi was lynched first day and Mulbery was mafia, we are left with Ooglie and Caffe. The mafias might have thought this way, and killed one of them to try to take the Vigilante. Also, if it turned out that Caff was not a vigilante, it could look like the vigilante killed her. However, that would depend on who the vigilante killed.
Since caff turned out to be a doctor, and everyone who did not want a lynch on day 0 are lynched, except for Ooglie which most likely is a cult leader, it makes me wonder if the vigilante did try to kill someone first day. If he did, the doctor would have saved someone, and since a doctor wants to save people he/she thinks are townies. While none of this has to be true, I do wonder if Caff saved someone Infected was suspicious of. If so, she might have thought that Infected was a mafia and been the reason for why she tunnelled Infected. That might be why she wanted to vote for weak, since Infected didn’t.
What I found very interesting is that Mulbery chose to vote for lynching his fellow mafia friend. I believe one of these could be the reason his vote on Aqua.
1. Weak also is a mafia, and therefore Mulbery could vote for the person which would make him less suspicious. Either way it would “help” the town, and it would then also make person he did not vote for less suspicious. It could make us want to vote against Ender, Oak, Iggish, HKCaper and Caffe. However, he could as well have done the same to us with lynching Weak, and create suspicions around me, Infected, Notty, Ooglie and Foggy. Honestly, I think that would be a smarter move, since most of the people who voted for Weak seemed to have a very clear opinion.
2. Weak is a non-mafia, and Mulbery believed that it would take too many mafia votes to lynch him. Therefore, they instead could split their votes, and make they look less like a team, even though they had to sacrifise Aqua. If they lynched Weak, they could have thought that the Vigilante could easily track one of them, and that we could see a pattern the next day.
3. Weak is a non-mafia and mulbery thought that Weak would end up with more votes anyway. He would vote for Weak to make himself less suspicious. However, I find this unlikely since when Mul gave his vote only Samlen, Ooglie, Aqua and Foggy had yet to give their vote and it was currently a 5 – 5. It was both likely that Aqua would vote for Weak, and Foggy for Aqua at that time, and since Samlen would not vote, it really was dependent if Ooglie would vote for Aqua or Weak, or if someone changed their vote.
When we lynched Aqua, which I thought was a miracle. I was also pretty sure people would see a pattern and that people who did vote for a weak-lynch would be much more suspicious. I thought we easily could track the rest of the mafias due to this. I also lowered my suspections to Foggy, which I was quite surprised about not voting for a Weak-lynch. However, my thoughts have changed drastically as Mulbery was revealed to be a mafia. Most likely I believe Mulbery chose to do this because of reason 2 (see above), and wanted to get us to next day lynch the same people that wanted a weaklynch. Reason 1 for voting Aqua could also be possible. Both reasons are likely and from what I can see, and both would make people who wanted to lynch weak much more suspicious. It makes me believe that there might be more mafias that could have voted for lynching Aqua. This could be entirely wrong, but if that is true we have don’t have many suspects left as we can remove Ooglie, Mulbery and Notty.
Then going to the cult discussion.
Right now, I am pretty sure Ooglie is the patriot leader, since Infected, Notty and Ooglie himself say so, and that Notty is the communist leader. I also believe oak and infected are two of their members chosen first day. Right now, both cults are saying that they both successfully got a new member first night but not the second night, Notty because he tried to convert Ooglie (which is the patriot leader), and Ooglie because he tried to convert Mulbery, which died. Notty also says that when he tried to convert Ooglie, he found out that foggy which Ooglie converted, was a mafia.
(tell me if anything of this is wrong)
I think that what Notty has said so far sounds pretty reliable, since he knew Ooglie was the patriot leader. While Ooglie is claiming he instead converted Mulbery, I would believe it is a normal cult leader move so he would not lose a member. I don’t really see any reasons for why Notty would not tell the truth, other than if he knew that Foggy was a townie patriot. Then again, I would not see why Infected says Mulbery was converted instead. However, if Foggy was converted and Infected confirmed so, everyone would assume Foggy actually is the mafia because Notty said so, and that might be why Infected would lie. Infected could also be saying so because he knows Foggy is a mafia. While I currently believe Ooglie has converted Foggy, that does not necessarily mean he is mafia.
I currently town-read Infected, I feel like Iggish is a mafia. I am not sure about Ender but since the Mulbkill my suspisions around him has lowered. I also feel like Weak is town, but he might as well not be.
