Republic - Completed

[Infected_alien8_]

Roob visited notty one night and a random person the second night. His death shows up one mafia and one conformist, but no revolutionary(only shows up as conformist on court documents, I think they would show up as third party for monitor)

Notty either has to be a dissenter or a conformist

No, I asked priz and he said rev shows as town on monitor reports

 

[Sploorky]

(obviously a dissenter, there's no way she could be conformist)

 

[Infected_alien8_]

He also said the order is random though so she still could be mafia

 

[Sploorky]

No, I asked priz and he said rev shows as town on monitor reports

Oh seriously? I interpreted "court documents" as only subpoena targets

If that's the case there's a degree of uncertainty. Who was monitored tonight? Could that person come up?

 

[Prizyms]

only shows up as conformist on court documents, I think they would show up as third party for monitor

Court documents also refers to death reports. Three Citizens, all of the unique conformist roles, Superbia, and le Révolutionnaire appear as conformists. The two Suspicious Citizens and all other dissenters appear as dissenters.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Oh seriously? I interpreted "court documents" as only subpoena targets

If that's the case there's a degree of uncertainty. Who was monitored tonight? Could that person come up?

Actually that's a good shout, if they're proven town it means Notty was the mafia who roob chose, although I doubt roob chose to monitor a proven town

 

[Prizyms]

He also said the order is random though so she still could be mafia

It isn't ordered at all. The Monitor's death message in all cases is:

• Among those placed under surveillance, there is/are X conformist(s) and Y dissenter(s).

 

[Sploorky]

Well Roob's death confirms that Notty isn't town at least.

I recognize now how weird that sounds, I meant "Notty isn't town" as "Notty isn't town-aligned" though my reasoning behind it is moot because rev shows up as conformist as court documents. Still think that lynching notty is the best play no matter what

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I recognize now how weird that sounds, I meant "Notty isn't town" as "Notty isn't town-aligned" though my reasoning behind it is moot because rev shows up as conformist as court documents. Still think that lynching notty is the best play no matter what

If we lynch Notty, and she's Mafia, that's great

If we lynch Notty and she's not Mafia, we literally cannot win unless a) the poisoner dies within the next 2 nights AND b) we never mislynch even once

Spoiler: numbers

Poisoner dies tomorrow

11 town, 7 dissenter
- Night passes, Day ends
9 town, 7 dissenter
8 town, 6 dissenter
7 town, 5 dissenter
6 town, 4 dissenter
5 town, 3 dissenter
4 town, 2 dissenter
3 town, 1 dissenter
2 town, 0 dissenter, town win

Poisoner dies next night

11 town, 7 dissenter
9 town, 7 dissenter
7 town, 6 dissenter
6 town, 5 dissenter
5 town, 4 dissenter
4 town, 3 dissenter
3 town, 2 dissenter
2 town, 1 dissenter
1 town, 0 dissenter, town win

Poisoner dies next night

11 town, 7 dissenter
9 town, 7 dissenter
7 town, 6 dissenter
5 town, 5 dissenter
4 town, 4 dissenter, Mafia win

If we mislynch at all even if Poisoner dies tomorrow:

11 town, 7 dissenter
- Night passes, Day ends
9 town, 6 dissenter
7 town, 6 dissenter -- MISLYNCH
6 town, 5 dissenter,
5 town, 4 dissenter
4 town, 3 dissenter
3 town, 2 dissenter
2 town, 1 dissenter
-morning = 1 town, 1 dissenter, day can't end - Mafia Win

If we keep Notty alive, we can still win even if she's Mafia, although this depends on a) when the poisoner dies, b) how accurate our lynching is (but doesn't necessarily need to be flawless, unlike the scenario where we lynch Notty and she's rev) and c) if and when the rev dies (if they do, e.g. granny death, again our chances decrease)

If you're dead set on Notty being Mafia then I can understand why you'd take the risk of killing her since if she's Mafia it's obviously better than keeping her alive, but personally I could easily see her being the rev and I don't think it's a good idea risking the game banking on her innocence

We have better chances of pulling through if we don't lynch Notty from what I can tell

So basically, if we lynch Notty

- if she's Mafia: woo, we're a bit better off than if we'd have kept her alive, could be a lot better off if she's the poisoner
- if she's rev: we can't mislynch or we lose

If we keep Notty alive

- if she's Mafia: damn, we're slightly or hugely (if she's poisoner) worse off, BUT we can still win without needing a flawless lynch, something we can't do if we lynch her and she's not Mafia
- if she's rev: great, our chances of winning are better, albiet relying on several factors (if/when poisoner/rev die, accuracy of lynchings/killings)

tl;dr lynching Notty is only wise in my eyes if she's confirmed Mafia, otherwise it's a gamble not worth taking because what we'd gain doesn't outweigh what we'd lose

It's like, do you take a gamble where if you don't win, you lose £15,000 but if you win you get £3000, or a bonus 1/7 chance (14%) of winning £25,000 (if she's poisoner it would be amazing to kill her off but it's a 1/7 chance). Personally I would not take that gamble because 14% chance of winning anything worth risking losing £15,000 is way too little for me and how am I going to buy Jaffa cakes if I'm in £15,000 debt?

So with that, unless a proven town PR comes forward to say they've been monitored;

Dissolve Council

 

[Infected_alien8_]

(if she's poisoner it would be amazing to kill her off but it's a 1/7 chance).

(under the assumption she's one of the Mafia I mean, otherwise it's worse chance obviously)

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Also when I said 'poisoner dies next night' in the spoiler stuff, I meant day of course, when we lynch them

 

[Infected_alien8_]

also

2 town, 1 dissenter
1 town, 0 dissenter, town win

this would obviously be won at 2 town 0 dissenter at the end of the day rather than having an extra night and someone dying but whatever

 

[Faliara]

Nottykitten, your stated target did not die last night. What do you have to say for yourself?

 

[Faliara]

If we lynch Notty, and she's Mafia, that's great

If we lynch Notty and she's not Mafia, we literally cannot win unless a) the poisoner dies within the next 2 nights AND b) we never mislynch even once

Spoiler: numbers

Poisoner dies tomorrow

11 town, 7 dissenter
- Night passes, Day ends
9 town, 7 dissenter
8 town, 6 dissenter
7 town, 5 dissenter
6 town, 4 dissenter
5 town, 3 dissenter
4 town, 2 dissenter
3 town, 1 dissenter
2 town, 0 dissenter, town win

Poisoner dies next night

11 town, 7 dissenter
9 town, 7 dissenter
7 town, 6 dissenter
6 town, 5 dissenter
5 town, 4 dissenter
4 town, 3 dissenter
3 town, 2 dissenter
2 town, 1 dissenter
1 town, 0 dissenter, town win

Poisoner dies next night

11 town, 7 dissenter
9 town, 7 dissenter
7 town, 6 dissenter
5 town, 5 dissenter
4 town, 4 dissenter, Mafia win

If we mislynch at all even if Poisoner dies tomorrow:

11 town, 7 dissenter
- Night passes, Day ends
9 town, 6 dissenter
7 town, 6 dissenter -- MISLYNCH
6 town, 5 dissenter,
5 town, 4 dissenter
4 town, 3 dissenter
3 town, 2 dissenter
2 town, 1 dissenter
-morning = 1 town, 1 dissenter, day can't end - Mafia Win

If we keep Notty alive, we can still win even if she's Mafia, although this depends on a) when the poisoner dies, b) how accurate our lynching is (but doesn't necessarily need to be flawless, unlike the scenario where we lynch Notty and she's rev) and c) if and when the rev dies (if they do, e.g. granny death, again our chances decrease)

If you're dead set on Notty being Mafia then I can understand why you'd take the risk of killing her since if she's Mafia it's obviously better than keeping her alive, but personally I could easily see her being the rev and I don't think it's a good idea risking the game banking on her innocence

We have better chances of pulling through if we don't lynch Notty from what I can tell

So basically, if we lynch Notty

- if she's Mafia: woo, we're a bit better off than if we'd have kept her alive, could be a lot better off if she's the poisoner
- if she's rev: we can't mislynch or we lose

If we keep Notty alive

- if she's Mafia: damn, we're slightly or hugely (if she's poisoner) worse off, BUT we can still win without needing a flawless lynch, something we can't do if we lynch her and she's not Mafia
- if she's rev: great, our chances of winning are better, albiet relying on several factors (if/when poisoner/rev die, accuracy of lynchings/killings)

tl;dr lynching Notty is only wise in my eyes if she's confirmed Mafia, otherwise it's a gamble not worth taking because what we'd gain doesn't outweigh what we'd lose

It's like, do you take a gamble where if you don't win, you lose £15,000 but if you win you get £3000, or a bonus 1/7 chance (14%) of winning £25,000 (if she's poisoner it would be amazing to kill her off but it's a 1/7 chance). Personally I would not take that gamble because 14% chance of winning anything worth risking losing £15,000 is way too little for me and how am I going to buy Jaffa cakes if I'm in £15,000 debt?

So with that, unless a proven town PR comes forward to say they've been monitored;

Dissolve Council

We could just lynch Notty first and dissolve in the evening, if you really insist on dissolving the council

 

[Infected_alien8_]

We could just lynch Notty first and dissolve in the evening, if you really insist on dissolving the council

The whole point of dissolving the council is because it keeps Notty alive

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Nottykitten, your stated target did not die last night. What do you have to say for yourself?

She couldn't target Ender because he was in the council if that's what you're referring to

 

[Faliara]

She couldn't target Ender because he was in the council if that's what you're referring to

No, not Endy. She chose a target, told us who she chose and was supposed to kill that target, and if that target turned out to be mafia maybe we’d give her the chance.

Of course, her target isn’t dead, so

 

[Infected_alien8_]

No, not Endy. She chose a target, told us who she chose and was supposed to kill that target, and if that target turned out to be mafia maybe we’d give her the chance.

Of course, her target isn’t dead, so

Which target?

 

[Faliara]

Which target?

It was TheWeakGuy

If you’re wondering why, it’s because by the time she told us, we were already 2/3 ways done with the subpoena vote and I didn’t see her post before I hammered it in (I forgot that that was something we needed to discuss).

if notty tells me something like ‘i changed my mind last second’ i swear to god

 

[Fog]

Ok so I missed like 30 pages of the last day but I’m assuming they weren’t important, Notty isn’t confirmed town due to some town players showing as Mafia and the Rev showing as town right?

 

[Faliara]

Ok so I missed like 30 pages of the last day but I’m assuming they weren’t important, Notty isn’t confirmed town due to some town players showing as Mafia and the Rev showing as town right?

Notty has claimed revolutionary, but due to many factors I (and others) are pretty sure she’s the mafia.

Anyways, I have a question for Prizyms since I have a (leap in logic sort of) theory;
If the Protester or Subversive visits Acedia, do they die or is Acedia’s ability suppressed? If they do die, does the kill Acedia voted on get canceled out?

 

[Enderfive]

i'm poisoned

honestly surprised i wasn't outright killed but okay sure

Nottykitten please go ahead and explain the thought processes that went into choosing your target tonight

whoever was monitored should come forward now

 

[Mooglie]

Haven't read anything since busy rn but I watched roob assuming notty would kill me or inf and mafia would kill aqua or ender and then poison roob but here we are

 

[Mooglie]

Also what was runes alignment

 

[Faliara]

Also what was runes alignment

he appears to conform to the standards of society, though you never know with how some of these roles are designed