Republic - Completed

[Jivvi]

My main concern is that Inf is organising and ordering the mafia group, so the other mafia don't really have to make themselves known. Maybe I should have pressed harder to have them sacked off earlier, but hey I can't help if I'm dead.

yeah currently i'm toying with the idea that inf isn't the ""fall guy"" (obviously that's notty after completely fucking us with that d0 play) but he's acting a a catalyst of sorts. i honestly think he lucked out and guessed ltin's role; he's too scummy to be town. he's the reason notty survived to today at all imo.

Putting myself in here just for transparency, but I would have voted to execute notty.

probably should have been obvious from my last posts before that happened but same, although i acknowledge that neither side has more credibility than the other since notty was an ideal bus.

Though I’m not sure what to think about Listings, I wasn’t actually too surprised when Danni thought List was being kinda shifty. His choices of who to be suspicious of feels like they’re on the same track as mine, but his reasoning is... A bit curt, I think. Somewhat simplified. I don’t think he’s mafia, though- more like he followed what he thought was the better reasoning and felt no need to expand on it.

i get what you're saying, and i could picture listings as the rev but i still feel like he's a strange target to 180 onto as hard as danni did

Care to explain why you town-read LISTINGS

<o> smd

Care to quote where hk has showed any of those signs of behaviour

when ender accused him of being a negligent townie and he threw a hissy fit he threw of "if u think im mafia i guess i cant change ur mind" i refuse to believe you missed it cause it was one of the only substantial parts of those few pages. you even put him on your "we should lynch these people cause they claimed civ" list. idk why you're attacking me over this

I haven't been killed off because my role is useless in a democracy and we've not been in an autocracy ever since I claimed

that's true but i wholly believe you were the reason notty wasn't policy lynched. your spamming singlehandedly made it seem like notty's ass-backwards strategy had visceral support from the town.

I was defending Notty because her points made sense

fuck off

Take that Inf. You're going down.

Roob, your sacrifice won't be in vain.

i'd ask you to be less eccentric but i'm enjoying it so don't

 

[Sploorky]

That means 1 of 2 things.
1: LtIn was dessenter (which i find unlikely as explained before).
2: anyone who claimed after ltin died knew their role and 1 of those after Ltin claims is a dessenter.

This is very important I think. Just double checking with people, but number 1 is pretty unlikely right?

 

[Unusual_Dood]

That makes 11 citizen claims. Among those 11 there are 5 real claims.

6/11 citizen claims are rev + 5 dessenters.

That means 1 of 2 things.
1: LtIn was dessenter (which i find unlikely as explained before).
2: anyone who claimed after ltin died knew their role and 1 of those after Ltin claims is a dessenter.

How do you know there are 5 real claims and 5 dissenter claims, and not 4 real claims and 6 dissenter claims? Why isn't there a third option where Ltin was citizen?

 

[HKCaper]

How did I know Ltin's role if I visited Hunter?

OKAY i need to know from one of the people of the first day council. DID HUNTER SAY HE WAS GOING TO SUMMON LTIN? if it was already said it was probably thousand pages ago.

If he did, its likely notty shared this info with the other dessenters, and the mafia rolecop visited Ltin, to then claim whatever role he was.

when ender accused him of being a negligent townie and he threw a hissy fit he threw of "if u think im mafia i guess i cant change ur mind" i refuse to believe you missed it cause it was one of the only substantial parts of those few pages. you even put him on your "we should lynch these people cause they claimed civ" list. idk why you're attacking me over this

lol if you think that is me as scum, thats just general salt

How do you know there are 5 real claims and 5 dissenter claims, and not 4 real claims and 6 dissenter claims? Why isn't there a third option where Ltin was citizen?

that's true, good call, can we get some maths in here to find out what is more likely perhaps (or is this a waste of time?)

 

[LISTINGS09]

Please elect myself and Fog (Tox) into the council.

Unelect
Elect: Fog, LISTINGS09

I have a plan to explain at the council meeting (going auto), we need Ender free for that kill.

Ooglie101 suggest tracking Fog tonight.

This is very important I think. Just double checking with people, but number 1 is pretty unlikely right?

About a 1/4 chance Hunter guessed right, ignoring any intuition Hunter had.

Hopefully they made the right choice, but we'll never know.

 

[Jivvi]

OKAY i need to know from one of the people of the first day council. DID HUNTER SAY HE WAS GOING TO SUMMON LTIN? if it was already said it was probably thousand pages ago.

yeah fali told us hunter telegraphed his ltin kill

lol if you think that is me as scum, thats just general salt

fuck off stop copying inf

Please elect myself and Fog (Tox) into the council.

wait what did you claim? wasn't it civ?

we shouldn't be electing civs

 

[Danni122112]

Ummmm... I'd like to change my answer to 'YES'.

I just checked my PMs properly, sorry.

HOW THE FUCK DID YOU MISS THIS LISTINGS

 

[Danni122112]

ok so listings is either town or godfather, assuming he is speaking the truth.

The only way he could not be speaking the truth, is if town or Revo are too stupid to say they were monitored.

I am very confused

 

[Jivvi]

ok so listings is either town or godfather, assuming he is speaking the truth.

civ or gf/rev?

 

[LISTINGS09]

HOW THE FUCK DID YOU MISS THIS LISTINGS

No night actions, so I wasn't expecting to receive anything.

we shouldn't be electing civs

What about a civ with a cunning plan?

 

[HKCaper]

Dess - whistleblower

Oog - watcher/observer

Inffy - Submarine (cba to look up correct spelling)

myuser - paranoid

these four roles claimed after Ltin died. with Ltin janitor'd, and notty probably having shared this with the rest of the dessenters, this means that none very little of the claims are confirmed.

i find it unlikely Ltin was a dessenter, hence he could have been a PR or a citizen. The odds that he was one of those 4 PR's are close to the odds he was a citizen (there are a couple of factors playing a role in this, but i'd say citizen was more likely, but not by a lot).

ANYHOW, this means there is a chance that Ltin was 1 of the 4 listed PR's. Some choose to believe Inffy somehow guessed Ltin's role, but since he was seen visiting Hunter, he can't be the role cop. The other 3 could very well be the mafia role cop, and have visited Ltin, knowing he was likely to get janitored.

CONCLUSIVE, i'm not so sure if we should be placing trust in dess or oog (or myuser for that matter) on the council, without thinking this thru a bit more.

Also, rn there are 2 votes for Dess/Ooglie/Fog/Listing, but not a lot have voted

 

[Jivvi]

ome choose to believe Inffy somehow guessed Ltin's role

tbh this probably happened

how can someone that scummy be confirmed town

he defended notty even after she flipped mafia wtf

 

[HKCaper]

tbh this probably happened

i just cant see how he would have guessed correct out of all the roles that were still available.

even if he did, would it have been worth the risk of being cc'd if he claimed the wrong role?

 

[HKCaper]

unless ofc Ltin's posts somehow contained hints to him being the sub.

 

[Sploorky]

i just cant see how he would have guessed correct out of all the roles that were still available.

even if he did, would it have been worth the risk of being cc'd if he claimed the wrong role?

I mean he was seen visiting someone so he would have to claim a PR if he was mafia

 

[Jivvi]

i just cant see how he would have guessed correct out of all the roles that were still available.

even if he did, would it have been worth the risk of being cc'd if he claimed the wrong role?

dumb fucking luck

also even blatant ccing gives you a shot at taking out a claiming townie

I mean he was seen visiting someone so he would have to claim a PR if he was mafia

also this

 

[Sploorky]

I guess if it was one of those four PRs that was secretly mafia and stealing Ltin's role then I would put my stock in inf or oog

I personally skewer towards Oog being the most suspicious because Inf definitely isn't rolecop and Oog might be

 

[Unusual_Dood]

I went back and checked and at the time Infected claimed there were 6 prs unclaimed so 1/6 chance of guessing Ltins role if Ltin was town, but for this plan to work Ltin also had to be a PR, so it would require him to be extremly lucky. However, this raises the question, why would Hunter kill a submersive claim?

 

[HKCaper]

I mean he was seen visiting someone so he would have to claim a PR if he was mafia

that's true.

wait, if he was seen visiting someone, his claim had to be a visiting PR.

there were only two unclaimed PR's at the time that could have visited under autocracy:
Tox and subversive

however, since the target of the tox is alerted when they are given an antidote, he could easily have been exposed by the person who received it.

hence, claiming sub was his only viable option.

 

[HKCaper]

if Ltin was sub didnt matter or not,

claiming sub was inffy's only choice.

 

[Enderfive]

garuntee

this is not the correct spelling reeeeeeeeeeeeee i trigger every time i see you try to write that word

 

[Enderfive]

If you were truly town you'd not want to waste our lynch

If you're planning on forcing an autocracy there's no way anyone's gonna risk that with you there

inf, i'm gonna say this one more time

if you want to go with democracy, you will need to put someone on the council that is suspicious so that we could lynch them

unless that person votes to subpoena with the other two council members beside me, the democracy will never happen because i will refuse to vote for a subpoena

things that you should also consider: with a democracy, we will be able to lynch just the one person from the council, wjth an autocracy we will be able to lynch anyone

with a democracy i am only able to poison and thus can't really do anything significant at all, with an autocracy i have a chance to actually do some damage to scum

with a democracy the rev might go for a townie to try and force us to go with autocracy, even though that would be fucking stupid on their part, with an autocracy they can't afford to deliberately kill a townie because that could tip the majority over to the maf side, considering the sheer number of different possible nightkills

 

[Faliara]

that's true.

wait, if he was seen visiting someone, his claim had to be a visiting PR.

there were only two unclaimed PR's at the time that could have visited under autocracy:
Tox and subversive

however, since the target of the tox is alerted when they are given an antidote, he could easily have been exposed by the person who received it.

hence, claiming sub was his only viable option.

I looked through what happened early during Day 2 again, and remember when Aqua revealed that Inffy visited Hunter on Night 1?

He took too long to claim. Everyone was repeating 'claim or die', and Inf seemed to keep avoiding the question until later, where he claimed to be the Subversive. I'm guessing that, within that timeframe, Inf was trying to see what options he had that he could claim through the role list.

The reason I started having doubts that Inf was lying about being the Subversive was because no one counterclaimed, but of course that wasn't the best idea- the Subversive is a useful power role, one that can be used under autocracy (which Notty, a known dissenter, kept aiming for) and if the Subversive is someone among those who are still alive they might be targeted as soon as they revealed what role they had, the same way Aqua and Roob were killed while Endy was poisoned last night. It's the kind of outcome the Subversive would probably want to avoid.

yeah, inf is probably a dissenter

 

[Enderfive]

that's true, good call, can we get some maths in here to find out what is more likely perhaps (or is this a waste of time?)

okay i'm making this a new scumtell:

Ender's Tell: Anyone who attempts to use math as an argument in and of itself to determine the best strategy in an open game of Mafia, is probably scum.

 

[Enderfive]

OKAY i need to know from one of the people of the first day council. DID HUNTER SAY HE WAS GOING TO SUMMON LTIN? if it was already said it was probably thousand pages ago.

If he did, its likely notty shared this info with the other dessenters, and the mafia rolecop visited Ltin, to then claim whatever role he was.

yes he bloody said he was

the rolecop gets the results in the morning though so that's a moot point