MoltenAshes
Member
I'm getting a big "don't vote me, I didn't do anything wrong" vibe from TWG, which is making me sus of him now. Dang, I guess I flip-flop as much as Alisha now.
MoltenAshes
Member
Tim: I'm pretty sure Tim is town with the vigi claim. Don't see him lying here unless there is two kills tomorrow.
UNU: I did say unu could be mafia in a previous post, but now I mostly read him as town trying to help.
Fog: I read fog as town yesterday, but their activity today makes me question that read earlier. Right now, I say neutral-positive.
Catgirl: I really bashed catgirl, but it looks like right now that was me overanalyzing things. She's back to a neutral to me.
Alisha: I have bad vibes from her ever since the beginning, but now I'm actually town-reading her.
Shadow: At the moment, Shadow has been a little on the inactive side, and the quotes have brought a little suspicion. (Neutral-Negative)
Inffy: Definitely my toughest read. At the moment, I'm getting bad vibes, but I'm not exactly certain why.
Choco: "I have nothing to say about the previous lynch." Also, his inactivity makes me really suspicious of him.
TWG: The person I'm most suspicious of right now. Seems desperate not to get lynched, but doesn't really have a good explanation, other than, "I didn't vote up Ernie yesterday", which isn't enough in my book.
MoltenAshes
Member
Yeah Alisha, me neither.
Infected_alien8_
Garry's Mod Admin
Ugh I'm so tired but I suddenly have this small feeling that molten is town for some reason
Like when I read back over my argument with him I get this weird mental image of like metal clockwork sort of, and I'm trying to make sense of molten's thought process through this really precise metal frame but it's not fitting, but he's still town and I'm too zoomed in on the metal frame and ignoring that
That probably makes no sense and I'll probably read this tomorrow when I wake up and be like what and I don't even know why I'm posting this I should go to sleep
Like when I read back over my argument with him I get this weird mental image of like metal clockwork sort of, and I'm trying to make sense of molten's thought process through this really precise metal frame but it's not fitting, but he's still town and I'm too zoomed in on the metal frame and ignoring that
That probably makes no sense and I'll probably read this tomorrow when I wake up and be like what and I don't even know why I'm posting this I should go to sleep
Well, first off, I said, "[...] regarding Ernie's lynch I don't even know anymore".
I'm a bit busy with a lot of stuff and work irl. Not the best reasoning, but kinda can't expect me to be on Mafia all the time. Also I just mislynched the Town cop.
MoltenAshes seems to be throwing a lot of shade on the weakest targets around - seems like a sort of convenient way of diverting attention (?),
As what Unu said Inffy seems to be siding with people who are influential and what not. I still think MoltenAshes is suspicious.
Actually Timdood3 a bit of direction from you would be nice, given I think I can trust you the most as of right now (?).
Tell us when and if this happens.
Infected_alien8_
Garry's Mod Admin
I'm kinda confused about this 'inf town reads influential people' read that choco and UNU have come up with since I don't even know who would be classed as influential other than tim due to his claim making him seem very likely to be town, in which case surely it isn't surprising that I'm trusting him? If both of you could elaborate on this that'd be great please
I'm actually going to go to sleep now though gnight
I'm actually going to go to sleep now though gnight
Will do
I was about to say TimDood and Alisha, but I just figured out you recently switched back to finding Alisha suspicious.
1) It takes me 5 times longer time, 5 times more effort and 5 times as much energy to make those sort of posts than these responses.
2) As I had other things to do, the likely scenario that would happen if I started on the ‘who I read post’ would be me not finishing before I had to leave, leaving, coming back, continueing on it and posting it about 15 mins before the one I made got posted. This would also mean the response post would come 15 mins after that as well.
3) From my experience it is good idea to as quick as possible clarify or respond to a post in case th situation escalates which sometimes can’t be fixed. Has happened to me a few times.
You were very focused on me only talking mechanics and not posting about my reads, not scum hunting and trying to help just enough to stay off the radar. However, your argument falls apart as I promised to do exactly that later as I didn’t have time.
I think you and possibly someone else mentioned it being weird that I prioritized mechanics first, then reads. My idea was to have all in one big post and in that case I find is naturally to first analyze the information we have, and then afterwards work everything out from that.
I'm really glad people are trusting my claim. I was actually really worried people would think I was SK. And oh boy did a lot get posted while I slept/was at work. I imagine it'll be the same tomorrow, jeez.
The top people that I think definitely aren't scum:
-Infected. As I've said before, he's very active (which in itself is not necessarily town) and is forcing others to be active as well. He's being very inquisitive and not trying to create any "gotcha" moments that could get a quick lynch of a town member. I see his behavior as not dissimilar to mine, so imo, if you trusted me before my claim, you should trust him now for much the same reason.
-Catgirl. Her last post tells me me that we should definitely trust her. I'm not going to elaborate.
If I die, I think these are two voices you can rely on in my absence.
Less certain, but still a strong feeling is Alisha. Yes, I know I included her as mafia in a previous post, but as I've said, that was a lapse in judgement. (I'm going from memory here so this may or may not have a factual basis:) She may not be pushing super strongly against people, but I feel that could be because she's too focused on defending herself from all the fire being thrown at her. I feel from her behavior that she does want to help town, just hasn't had the opportunity to really get the job done.
I also trust Choco. I don't quite remember why and I don't have the time or energy to look back through the thread, meaning he's at the bottom of my town reads.
And that leaves....Everybody else. Molten, Weak, Unu, Fog, and Shadow. It is my belief that 3 of these 5 players are our mafia. The most people seem suspicious of Molten, so perhaps we should start there. I'm going to wait to make any more specific judgments, but hey, we can still afford two mislynches, meaning that if we lynch all 5 of these people, we should win. Disclaimer: I'm not saying that's what we should do, because we can't be certain I'm right, I'm just saying.
Right now I think voting MoltenAshes is (probably) what I think I'm going to do as we move forward as I do find him suspicious though I want to ask:
@Inffy what is your opinion of Fog?
MoltenAshes what makes you Townread Alisha as of the moment? What is your opinion of Shadow?
@Inffy what is your opinion of Fog?
MoltenAshes what makes you Townread Alisha as of the moment? What is your opinion of Shadow?
Ok so I re-read most of the thread now I have a few opinions about everyone. I hope this answers every question that was asked, if not feel free to ask them again.
(first I want to apologize if my attitude came off as being rude earlier)
About my earlier reads: While I already had established opinions, when I re-read the thread I decided to "start from scratch" and only keeping my earlier opinions in the back of my head. Hopefully to prevent my earlier thoughts to influence my new thoughts, however some thoughts are the same or similar.
About the Ernie-lynch: While I earlier thought that the Ernie-lynch was unneeded, I can see the appeal to vote Ernie. He barely spoke and interacted with everyone else. It seems like he didn't put effort in. I would not have voted for him though day 0, but if he was alive this day I likely would've supported a lynch on him. This doesn't mean my earlier point, in that the traction the Ernie-lynch got, is invalid, although it may be lesser relevant than I initally thought.
On to my reads:
Unusual
*Has made a few big posts. While it is easier to navigate through what he has said, and it's easier to find his opinions, it makes it harder to interract with him and get to know his opinion all the time.
*His posts ususally contain information and statistics and how likely it is to have X role (and stuff). This is not really that useful, the roles that are in the game and how we play isn't altered by the statistics. I agree with Inffy here, in that his posts seem like "filler post", so he isn't forced to say his opinion at all times.
*He townsread me, while I greatly appreciate anyone for being correct, I can't help but feel like this is a call or encouragement for me to townread him back.
*While the earlier points are true, this itself is corresponds with his earlier games where he acted this way. That being said, if he is Mafia he could just be trying to copy his earlier attitude.
Fog
*Relaxed when it comes to voting, states his opinion first then votes later.
*Has stated his opinion on a few players, however he has posted when he has opinions even though he only has it on a few people.
*I have to take a hit here, he was not as scummy as I originally thought - I originally read his vote on Ernie as him following the "sheep herd".
*Partook in the Ernie lynch.
Molten
*Has made many post, but most of them are small. This makes it hard to find what they said earlier. This reads to me as a somewhat Mafia-ish behaviour, as it makes them look active while their posts have less value than a big post has. While this has been mentioned I couldn't find a larger post by them, so they should make it (please show me if you found it)
*They have been aggressive in their voting. While this may not, strictly speaking, Mafia, the way this happened feels like minor attemps to gain support to lynch that player, or also some sort of a bandwagon.
*Their opinion and scumreads feels like it's jumping all the time.
*Has been active and interactive with the rest of the players.
Shadow
*Hasn't really stood out, feels like they are trying to "blend in" with the rest of the players. This could be a townspersons opinion, however it is so similar to most others (with a few diffrences of course) that it makes me think that he could try to stay under the radar.
*They are jumpy when it comes to voting and scumreading, I think page 7-9 illustrates this good. Shadow makes a post with his opinions, that he thinks Fantome is scum. First example from day 0: Shadow votes Okx, who now has 4 votes for being inactive. Someone unvotes and he also unvotes. For the first example, he could logically unvote Okx since Okx just responded so I think this one's fair. Second example from day 0: Shadow unvotes (from Okx), and votes Fantome, this again makes sense logically because he said earlier that he scumread Fantome so it would make sense for him to follow it up on that. Third example from day 0: He unvotes Fantome and give Ernie a total of 3 votes, which doesn't make sense for him to do, as he scumread Fantome earlier but not just gave up.
*Partook in the Ernie lynch.
*Has voted for 3 proven townies, which indicate that he wanted to lynch someone town, as he maybe knew that they were town.
Catgirl
*Only voted yesterday against Ernie. Said earlier that she was willing to lynch either Ernie or Fantome if the lynch was close.
*Hasn't made that many posts throughout the game, although the post that has been made does make sense and are clear.
*I get a little vibe here that her opinion is influenced by what the other's say, of course it could just be their genuine thoughts, but it is something that stands a little out after my opinion.
Timdood
*Claims to be a 1-shot vigilante, a claim that I believe.
*Their posts seem genuine town-like and it feels like they are after information from the players.
*While it's easy to say now that I townread them, I also did this somewhat earlier which makes me happy as at least 1 of my reads are correct. :)
Chocofox
*Has been active and has showed interest in the game, which makes me think they're town.
*Their posts read town-like to me, they are actively after information and it feels like they want to help town.
*Has made a few big posts, and many others. Has also asked many questions to the diffrent players.
*Their profile is private, which makes it really difficult to see what their opinion was at what times.
*Partook in the Ernie lynch early on, and followed through with it.
Inffy
*Has been active and responsive to questions they have been asked.
*Creates big post every once in a while which makes it easy to see what their opinion is at what times. But could probably remove the grammar correction posts which, to me, feels like a way to up their post count.
*Supported a lynch on the inactivities day 0. This doesn't really mean anything, except that the inactivities ended up being town (Okx + Ernie).
*Can't help but feel like he's trying to put me as a Mafia because I didn't want to lynch Ernie yesterday. I mean this could be a genuine town play, however it confuses me, as logically the Mafia would lynch Ernie. He could argue that if I was Mafia, I knowingly wouldn't publically want to lynch Ernie, to make me seem more town, I see his point, and it's impossible to argue against it, however it also applies to him, he could also be Mafia and try to gain goodwill.
*It feels like he's trying to find a Mafia from those who didn't vote Ernie yesterday. Of course, this would make sense if we were trying to make a point out of it, however I feel like he is digging for gold where there is none.
*Seems to have much influence when it comes to who is lynched, after he started to scumread me, then suddenly many more are. This doesn't indicate if he's town or not town though, as the Mafia could be wanting to lynch me eitherway.
Alisha
*Has been active and interractive in the game.
*Creates informative posts every once in a while, which makes it easier to find what she said.
*Probably jumped the most with their vote last day. Could be a town, or Mafia, who's eager to express their opinion, or could be a Mafia wanting to gain support for a lynch or alternatively start a bandwagon. Admittely, I doubt the latter, mostly because not all of their votes have been entirely serious.
*Here's a list of the "serious" votes that she placed last day: Chocofox, Fantome, Okx, Ernie and theWeakGuy48_. Out of these 5 votes, 3 of them are proven town, aka Fantome, Okx and Ernie. I know that myself is also a town, which makes only Chocofox stand out as who I know is not town, who I also believe is town. She voted 3/5 proven town and from my point of view (or Choco if he's town for that sake) 4/5 proven town. This is strange behaviour. You could argue that Okx, or Ernie for that sake, were AFK, so the votes were justified. I'm not gonna argue that, that's up to each and everyone else to decide. It would not make sense that you end up voting for so many townplayers.
*She has made her opinion clear throughout the game which makes me feel she has taken much time into thinking who is Mafia or who she wants dead. This doesn't really say anything as she's active in the game and experienced.
*Partook in the Ernie lynch
In the end I ended up with this result as my reads:
Likely Mafia
Shadow_Hunter3
Alisha
Possibly Mafia
Unusual_Dood
MoltenAshes
Neutral
Fog
Catgirl
Possibly Town
Chocofox
Inffy
Likely Town
Timdood3
(first I want to apologize if my attitude came off as being rude earlier)
About my earlier reads: While I already had established opinions, when I re-read the thread I decided to "start from scratch" and only keeping my earlier opinions in the back of my head. Hopefully to prevent my earlier thoughts to influence my new thoughts, however some thoughts are the same or similar.
About the Ernie-lynch: While I earlier thought that the Ernie-lynch was unneeded, I can see the appeal to vote Ernie. He barely spoke and interacted with everyone else. It seems like he didn't put effort in. I would not have voted for him though day 0, but if he was alive this day I likely would've supported a lynch on him. This doesn't mean my earlier point, in that the traction the Ernie-lynch got, is invalid, although it may be lesser relevant than I initally thought.
On to my reads:
Unusual
*Has made a few big posts. While it is easier to navigate through what he has said, and it's easier to find his opinions, it makes it harder to interract with him and get to know his opinion all the time.
*His posts ususally contain information and statistics and how likely it is to have X role (and stuff). This is not really that useful, the roles that are in the game and how we play isn't altered by the statistics. I agree with Inffy here, in that his posts seem like "filler post", so he isn't forced to say his opinion at all times.
*He townsread me, while I greatly appreciate anyone for being correct, I can't help but feel like this is a call or encouragement for me to townread him back.
*While the earlier points are true, this itself is corresponds with his earlier games where he acted this way. That being said, if he is Mafia he could just be trying to copy his earlier attitude.
Fog
*Relaxed when it comes to voting, states his opinion first then votes later.
*Has stated his opinion on a few players, however he has posted when he has opinions even though he only has it on a few people.
*I have to take a hit here, he was not as scummy as I originally thought - I originally read his vote on Ernie as him following the "sheep herd".
*Partook in the Ernie lynch.
Molten
*Has made many post, but most of them are small. This makes it hard to find what they said earlier. This reads to me as a somewhat Mafia-ish behaviour, as it makes them look active while their posts have less value than a big post has. While this has been mentioned I couldn't find a larger post by them, so they should make it (please show me if you found it)
*They have been aggressive in their voting. While this may not, strictly speaking, Mafia, the way this happened feels like minor attemps to gain support to lynch that player, or also some sort of a bandwagon.
*Their opinion and scumreads feels like it's jumping all the time.
*Has been active and interactive with the rest of the players.
Shadow
*Hasn't really stood out, feels like they are trying to "blend in" with the rest of the players. This could be a townspersons opinion, however it is so similar to most others (with a few diffrences of course) that it makes me think that he could try to stay under the radar.
*They are jumpy when it comes to voting and scumreading, I think page 7-9 illustrates this good. Shadow makes a post with his opinions, that he thinks Fantome is scum. First example from day 0: Shadow votes Okx, who now has 4 votes for being inactive. Someone unvotes and he also unvotes. For the first example, he could logically unvote Okx since Okx just responded so I think this one's fair. Second example from day 0: Shadow unvotes (from Okx), and votes Fantome, this again makes sense logically because he said earlier that he scumread Fantome so it would make sense for him to follow it up on that. Third example from day 0: He unvotes Fantome and give Ernie a total of 3 votes, which doesn't make sense for him to do, as he scumread Fantome earlier but not just gave up.
*Partook in the Ernie lynch.
*Has voted for 3 proven townies, which indicate that he wanted to lynch someone town, as he maybe knew that they were town.
Catgirl
*Only voted yesterday against Ernie. Said earlier that she was willing to lynch either Ernie or Fantome if the lynch was close.
*Hasn't made that many posts throughout the game, although the post that has been made does make sense and are clear.
*I get a little vibe here that her opinion is influenced by what the other's say, of course it could just be their genuine thoughts, but it is something that stands a little out after my opinion.
Timdood
*Claims to be a 1-shot vigilante, a claim that I believe.
*Their posts seem genuine town-like and it feels like they are after information from the players.
*While it's easy to say now that I townread them, I also did this somewhat earlier which makes me happy as at least 1 of my reads are correct. :)
Chocofox
*Has been active and has showed interest in the game, which makes me think they're town.
*Their posts read town-like to me, they are actively after information and it feels like they want to help town.
*Has made a few big posts, and many others. Has also asked many questions to the diffrent players.
*Their profile is private, which makes it really difficult to see what their opinion was at what times.
*Partook in the Ernie lynch early on, and followed through with it.
Inffy
*Has been active and responsive to questions they have been asked.
*Creates big post every once in a while which makes it easy to see what their opinion is at what times. But could probably remove the grammar correction posts which, to me, feels like a way to up their post count.
*Supported a lynch on the inactivities day 0. This doesn't really mean anything, except that the inactivities ended up being town (Okx + Ernie).
*Can't help but feel like he's trying to put me as a Mafia because I didn't want to lynch Ernie yesterday. I mean this could be a genuine town play, however it confuses me, as logically the Mafia would lynch Ernie. He could argue that if I was Mafia, I knowingly wouldn't publically want to lynch Ernie, to make me seem more town, I see his point, and it's impossible to argue against it, however it also applies to him, he could also be Mafia and try to gain goodwill.
*It feels like he's trying to find a Mafia from those who didn't vote Ernie yesterday. Of course, this would make sense if we were trying to make a point out of it, however I feel like he is digging for gold where there is none.
*Seems to have much influence when it comes to who is lynched, after he started to scumread me, then suddenly many more are. This doesn't indicate if he's town or not town though, as the Mafia could be wanting to lynch me eitherway.
Alisha
*Has been active and interractive in the game.
*Creates informative posts every once in a while, which makes it easier to find what she said.
*Probably jumped the most with their vote last day. Could be a town, or Mafia, who's eager to express their opinion, or could be a Mafia wanting to gain support for a lynch or alternatively start a bandwagon. Admittely, I doubt the latter, mostly because not all of their votes have been entirely serious.
*Here's a list of the "serious" votes that she placed last day: Chocofox, Fantome, Okx, Ernie and theWeakGuy48_. Out of these 5 votes, 3 of them are proven town, aka Fantome, Okx and Ernie. I know that myself is also a town, which makes only Chocofox stand out as who I know is not town, who I also believe is town. She voted 3/5 proven town and from my point of view (or Choco if he's town for that sake) 4/5 proven town. This is strange behaviour. You could argue that Okx, or Ernie for that sake, were AFK, so the votes were justified. I'm not gonna argue that, that's up to each and everyone else to decide. It would not make sense that you end up voting for so many townplayers.
*She has made her opinion clear throughout the game which makes me feel she has taken much time into thinking who is Mafia or who she wants dead. This doesn't really say anything as she's active in the game and experienced.
*Partook in the Ernie lynch
In the end I ended up with this result as my reads:
Likely Mafia
Shadow_Hunter3
Alisha
Possibly Mafia
Unusual_Dood
MoltenAshes
Neutral
Fog
Catgirl
Possibly Town
Chocofox
Inffy
Likely Town
Timdood3
Sucks that the forum doesn't have an ISO-like thing like MafiaUniverse but I've made it so that all members can see my profile now if that helps.
I don't really see how it's not useful since it kinda gives us a little bit more information on how the field could look like without actually having people to claim or anything.
Right now I don't really think Unu is scum and the "filler post" part theory seems to stick out a bit too much to be a "filler" per se.
But yeah I don't really have much to add.
My wording was bad there. Meant it more like "it's not like statistics is useless, it just doesn't impact or change the game."
Shadow_Hunter3
Shadow_Hunter3
I havent had much time to keep up the past 2 days, so I'll read up on everything in a bit and then make a post.
Now I have two posts containing what you are describing, one that was an corrigation of something in Tims post since it excluded some possibilities, and the one now. It really doesn't make sense calling it a filler post since I just after, and even mentioned that in the post, wrote a post about my reads.
So you dont think:
- knowing how many players the mafia team consist of has an impact or change in the game
- knowing what roles the mafia team has, has an impact or change in the game
- knowing whether or not there is a SK in the game has an impact or change in the game
- knowing how many PRs and which that at most and at least exists, and how many and which that in most scenarios exist, has an impact or change in the game
- knowing how many town people we have left alive has an impact or change in the game
- knowing how many mislynches we got left has an impact or change in the game
I'm sure it has some tiny psychological impact on the game (Inffy probably knows if this is correct or not). However, statistics don't say who we should lynch, opinion does, and you haven't voiced your opinion. I feel like you should change your focus away from statistics and focus on who we lynch.