Okay so I ran a bit more probabilities and all and I take back that statement that if masons claim it'd narrow down the probability more. Right now by looks of it seems like the more slots there are taken the more likely Weak is Town also somehow.
Anyway we still have a bit of time to decide Timdood3 I'm just going to ask you to remove your vote it may not be statistically sound as I thought, or could be. Please don't open the opportunity for hammer yet until Inffy speaks at least.
Just quickly am going to point out that the x * probability to find to probability of getting something in x rolls, isn't exactly correct. For instance that would mean the chance for getting a role blocker in 20 rolls would be 100% (0.05 * 20), and we all know that there for instance is possible to get 20T's, which means it isn't 100%.
Infected_alien8_
Garry's Mod Admin
Did you miss my post on page 30 explaining it all? I'd start there if you did
In a nutshell:
- I'd expect mafia to either try to hard bus or save their partner if they were in trouble like TWG/molten are since those are the most productive things to do (although they could have done something else of course, I'm just talking about what I think is likely). Nobody seems to fit the 'hard bus' category so I look at those who are trying to save someone and everyone except for me were trying to save molten, which makes me think he's a mislynch since mafia seem to be trying to save him and not TWG and I believe at least one is scum since all/most town agree they're suspicious and I have enough faith in our reads to think we're not completely wrong here, and I think TWG is scum too
- Intuition says molten is a mislynch as well
- UNU and TWG make a lot of sense as a mafia team because of how UNU is indirectly pushing for a molten lynch by defending TWG strongly, and my intuition believes in this team as well
- I don't like how TWG appeared so certain of ernie's alignment day 0 and how he tried to deflect any suspicion from him by using his no-lynch vote by acting as though it made no sense for him to do that as mafia, since I think a town TWG would understand where I was coming from so it felt like he was trying to ignore the truth in favour of an agenda to me
Sorry TWG I was too tired to see your softclaim yesterday but looking at the statistics it seems pretty unlikely you're telling the truth about who you are anyways, but instead of saying to look back at page 1 for your reasons for blocking fog, can you say them again please here?
That's right. Sorry, forgot that. I think I was a little frustrated that it didn't really seem like you had read the post at all, just considered it "mechanics", and looked at the names at the end and making me seem suspicious for not adding reasons for why, yet I mentioned I would post about that later since I didn't have time.
Not sure what you mean by this. Do you mean C9++ doesn't use the same odds for each letter?
np was on it anyway
VOTECOUNT TIMEEEE
Alisha: TheWeakGuy48_ (1/6)
MoltenAshes: Fog (1/6)
TheWeakGuy48_: Timdood3, Alisha, MoltenAshes (3/6)
Deadline in ~24 hours. There will be no extension! I know activity has been great, and I am not even sure if people wanted it, but I wanted to say it anyway. I feel the pressure to lynch is part of the game, since you need a majority at the deadline.