Timeline of Dichotomous Flowers - Game Complete

[Vyryn]

No neighbor chat with Notme last night.
I think Stranger from Planet 9 's timing is definitely strange, but I don't have a solid theory yet on what it means. My impulse is to assume scuminess.

Vy and notme : I was wondering if any one you noticed something that is not according to your roles,I’m assuming you didn’t as you haven’t mentioned anything alike.

Dess: initially very suspicious as I calculated a 5% chance of getting 3 town if 4 mafia (25% which seems to be the average) (did this a 3:30 also if my math is wrong, sorry). But given the fact we had a transportation role revealed and the possibility of gf I think it might be within reason for a role like this to exist.

Nope, I didn't find anything unexpected last night, except that it lasted for considerably longer than 24 hours; I think that's probably significant, but no theories on why yet.

Your calculations are problematic. Very much like "There's a <1% chance that we have four Ws in this C9++ game so Psycho must be lying about his Watcher claim". Of course if Dess is telling the truth he would want to pick three names he believes not only all individually have a high chance of being townie but also are strongly correlated with one another. Depending on how much faith you have in Dess's abilities, this could easily have brought the odds up better than even.

 

[Vyryn]

1. Don't see it, my flower is much more common
2. I definitely can see where you are coming from.
3. I do have one idea where you would get that I kinda soft-claimed my role.

Molten, could you give me a specific post number or quote for #3? Your answers to #1 and #2 support the idea of us having the same role; I suggest you think of a question to ask me to convince you of my role as well.

 

[Stranger from Myst Island]

No neighbor chat with Notme last night.
I think Stranger from Planet 9 's timing is definitely strange, but I don't have a solid theory yet on what it means. My impulse is to assume scuminess.

On my last message or my messages shortly before lynch yesterday?
For my last message I sent it just now because that was the first chance I had to sit down to backread and make and informed post.

 

[Vyryn]

Yeah I know. Just seems OP for a town member to confirm 3 other townies. E.g. it's 6 players left in the game, 2 mafia. You use your ability and confirm 3 town. That's kinda OP.

However if you're mafia then having that ability isn't OP because it'd be for detecting third parties. And as mafia you'd happily claim that as your ability to seem townie and useful, a bit like matty did in alisha's last game

Either way, I don't buy that a townie has that kind of power

Could you give me some insight into why I was a town read for you yesterday please, despite saying I sounded totally fake to you?

vote Dess

I don't buy this claim at ALL

took way too long to make that claim

it's a scummy claim

why would town have that, mafia usually do

hammer him!

Hmmm.... I think this only convinces once. Yesterday Inffy you proved that your inclination about what roles would be townie vs mafia is off for this game. I believe Dess is likely telling the truth.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Vyryn why do you have a moderate town read of Dess in your reads post earlier?

 

[Vyryn]

Which I've argued against.


Mind quoting the parts where I am jumping on you for not being a flower since I feel like I've only mentioned it once when originally voting you. Not sure where you think I'm tunneling exactly.

Excuse me for coming up with probable theories about the game.


Interesting how you neglect to mention Inf's equal part in this and instead town vibe him. And yeah, I really love a d0 lynch and I love near-deadline lynch drama even more.

This is only a minor inconvenience to the cop-dial theory

My mistake, it was only once. You're not tunneling me. But thank you for making me look back; I discovered what appears in retrospect to be a slip.

1) Are you town aligned?
I'm flower aligned.

When I first read this it looked like a meme response. But now it looks like too casual for that to be the case. I think it's a slip. Any townie would know that our role cards explicitly mentioned we win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and would probably not even have thought of hedging like this.

 

[Vyryn]

Vyryn why do you have a moderate town read of Dess in your reads post earlier?

Patience, my friend. I've been answering questions in inverse order of time requirement.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

When I first read this it looked like a meme response. But now it looks like too casual for that to be the case. I think it's a slip. Any townie would know that our role cards explicitly mentioned we win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and would probably not even have thought of hedging like this.

Hm this read bothers me

I'm not sure where you're coming from with it for one, but it seems like you're saying that since us town got told we'd win if all threats to town got eliminated, not just all threats to our team, it looks like maybe notty's not knowing that our roles say we're town specifically and so not wanting to slip up by saying she's town when it doesn't explicitly say we're town and actually we're some other team e.g. flower?

I don't agree and I think notty was memeing, but what I find interesting is that it took you a re-read to notice that. Almost like it took until night 1 for you to know what our town win con said (using TWG and hk's deaths), and that was what enabled you to have this read, and what was missing from it before and why it went unnoticed to you the first time

Also I think a team of vy/dess/omni makes quite a lot of sense but I'll go into that in more detail once vy has answered my questions

 

[Stranger from Myst Island]

I have to agree that something's off about that read on Notty. His whole 'flower aligned' comment got enough attention d0 that changing your read on it now really feels like a reach. It would be one thing if you'd brought up a comment that you may have previously overlooked, but for something that Aqua and a few others commented on I don't think shifting your read so suddenly makes sense.

 

[Vyryn]

What about #327 seemed townie to you? You mentioned about thinking she seemed to want to hammer late but naive about what it meant but that isn't what she's talking about in #327 so I assume theres another reason for that? Also what about her wanting to hammer late but being naive about what it means do you think makes her townie?

What about #469 do you find insightful?

Why is Dess a moderate townread? I agree with you that his reads often seem like they don't add up (e.g. his read on me, saying he town reads me despite thinking I feel totally fake or something)

I also agree with you about omni, I'm starting to think he's mafia this game as well

this seems far too trusting for a "slight townread", it also completely ignores infs massive part in the day 0 lynch.

When paired with notty's read it seems completely non genuine

further it implies that any active player who makes strong decisive arguments or is "Insightful" rings townie which is just plain bad and also once again goes completely against the notty read.

Also another thing that's bothering me about vy is that it feels like he's sucking up to me. He said I have cogent arguments, when I feel like my arguments this game have been pretty thin and lackluster since this game has been so difficult so far. And he said my reads post was 'really damn insightful' and I just don't see why he'd think that. My reads were pretty thin and weak.

Re:#327

Dess I read Inffy and everyone who I markedas likely non-town, because townies get the least info on setups. I often scum read people who seem to have very poised answers as oposed to trying to guess. It's a shit strategy since people can just be very experienced in mafia games, but that combined with people teaming very early on is usually a giant red flag for me. Example, the last game where people kept teaming for a townie to get lynched, and kept excusing the "I agree with said person" crowd for a 'no lynch', who all ended up being mafia in the end. I hope this post serves an observing townie in future days.

It seems just a little rough/rushed, attempting to be self-aware but rambling. Mafia tend to make more selective, sensical posts than this, perhaps especially inexperienced mafia.

As for wanting to hammer but being naive about what it meant, simple. She wanted to vote for him and didn't consider how it would look to the watching town.
Both of these are tied together, in that, short of experts (of which there are presumably several here but pixie does not appear to number among them) a townie is most inclined to pursue genuine action, worry about the impression they leave behind is a distant auxiliary concern, while an inexperienced mafia is more inclined to worry about the impression they leave behind than anything else.

Re:#469

HK - moderate scummy, scummy entrance, his interaction with me felt quite townie but interaction with TWG felt scummy and his reads on the last page felt a bit fake. His read on me felt quite genuine though, makes sense hk would see me suspect him and get paranoid I'm setting him up for a lynch since I've done that quite a bit as mafia to him, but I think he could fake that as town as well


Aqua - moderate town, feels townie for the most part, his turn around on me when he suddenly thinks I'm scum felt genuine. After I town read purple he said purple was 90% mafia and justified why he wants to vote her by saying it was still useful to do so even if she was town, and that felt like preparing to be wrong slightly just so he doesn't feel 'I was completely wrong and inf was right', more 'yeah I was wrong but like I said it was still useful to lynch her anyway so I still did the pro thing' which means he's probs genuinely trying to read people correctly and not be embarrassed after the game. Also saying that purple got herself lynched and putting the blame on her again feels like a way to not feel like he made a mistake if he's wrong, kinda like when he lynched UNU as town and said UNU was being objectively suspicious and it wasn't his fault. Which means he's considering being wrong and not wanting to feel responsible, which means he's probs not mafia. One thing that bothered me was how he suddenly shifted to talking formally and using full stops when he first agreed with me on purple but it's probably nothing relevant to his alignment?

Brian - slight scum, entrance felt off, his post where he came back like 'It's funny because I know I'm innocent but people are voting me so what did I do lol' feels like faked confidence in being town, just doesn't seem natural to me, dunno. But he didn't really try to defend himself much or address the points against him and I wonder if he'd be more inclined to do that as mafia since he'd feel more pressure to succeed for his small team so wouldn't want to let them down by being lynched since that's a big let down for a mafia partner, especially compared to a townie since it's not as bad being lynched as town + I think some people feel a kinda diffusion of responsibility as a townie, so there's less pressure for you specifically to perform well compared to when you're mafia, so that makes me doubt my read on him a bit since I thought he'd have panicked more and tried harder to get votes off him


Vy - neutral, been wanting to stay quiet about him since after the thread lit up and got meaty I wanted him to come online and do some scumhunting on his own accord, without me prodding him to, so that it seemed something he wanted to do because it aligns with his objective rather than because someone is suspecting him for not doing it. I could understand his lack of scumhunting before since it was early, there was little content to scumhunt with, and we had a big clock and poem to ponder about so it made sense to me his attention was on that, but now that the thread has fired up there's surely something he'd have to say or some read to give, but he's not come online and deadline is near so I'm just gonna say this now since I doubt he'll be on in time for deadline judging by his pattern of activity so far (consistently coming on at 4am so far I think). I'm just a bit weary that he's just focused on the mechanics/poem and did what I read as a policy lynch vote on aqua, with no insightful scumhunting like he did before as town. Again I can understand why his attention would be on mechanics and stuff, and when he was last online the thread didn't really have much to get reads from, so I'm not too worried, just want to bring it up and let you all know to expect a lot of insightful scumhunting from him in future days, because that's what he's capable of, and if he doesn't deliver and feels underwhelming then I'd be suspicious of him. Also been wondering if he's third party and that's why he's so in the background since from what choco told me he was pretty scumhunty as mafia, I know he was scumhunty as town, this game he hasn't shown that so is he third party and that's his meta pattern? But again I can understand why he'd be the way he is as town too so not too concerned rn


Purple - town, tone/intuition, feels pure, didn't seem to be making her M&M posts as a tactic to seem town since she didn't seem to understand where I was going when I was probing for that and I think she'd understand it if I was onto something and answer more directly, it didn't feel like she was just pretending not to understand. I can buy her explanation for what I previously thought was 'busy-work' as well

Every bolded part is either a non-obvious insight or veiled strategy. Each is worth of compliment. I summed them all up in "cogent" and "insightful". This was a far cry from praise, merely acknowledgement of good insight.
You're too suspicious of the motives behind my reads, both this game and the last game we played together. Last game it lead to my dismal misreading of you and choco and, in short order, my death. I guess I'm a bit weary of this happening again and want to stay on your good side until there's something very convincing against you.
This bit is also a response to the third quote up top.

I'm not entirely sure why Dess was a moderate townread for me before he claimed. I certainly scumread him on first read through, but after sleeping on it, when it came time to post my read list at daybreak my subconscious changed it's mind about him. Maybe I can point to his aggressive townread of HK as something too likely to draw attention for a mafia to be likely to do it, or his scumhunting of myself coming off as genuine, or his reads not quite making perfect sense, but honestly these are ad hoc justifications. As for now, after he's claimed, I feel much more comfortable with my moderate townread of him though it hasn't yet changed to a strong townread.



In response to the second quote up top, I would absolutely not give Inffy a moderate or strong townread without some sort of concrete evidence; I know he's active and helpful to the town regardless of his alignment and I've heard his abilities praised by too many people to so easily put him off my radar by considering him a moderate or strong townread.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

his aggressive townread of HK

I'm tired and forgot if I asked you this already, I feel like I did but in case I didn't, where did dess do that?

 

[Vyryn]

I'm not sure where you're coming from with it for one, but it seems like you're saying that since us town got told we'd win if all threats to town got eliminated, not just all threats to our team, it looks like maybe notty's not knowing that our roles say we're town specifically and so not wanting to slip up by saying she's town when it doesn't explicitly say we're town and actually we're some other team e.g. flower?

I have to agree that something's off about that read on Notty. His whole 'flower aligned' comment got enough attention d0 that changing your read on it now really feels like a reach. It would be one thing if you'd brought up a comment that you may have previously overlooked, but for something that Aqua and a few others commented on I don't think shifting your read so suddenly makes sense.

I'm not shifting my read, I'm replacing an incorrect tidbit with a roughly equally weighted newly noticed tidbit. I still read Notty as moderately scummy, and #733 has a lot more reason than just the flower aligned comment. If it helps, note that I did not materially change my reads, written as I was catching up to the game overnight (mostly written before I had gotten to page 29), when I posted them at daybreak.

 

[Vyryn]

I'm tired and forgot if I asked you this already, I feel like I did but in case I didn't, where did dess do that?

I guess when the lynch votes were piling up for pixie and you tried to start a counterwagon vs HK he pretty aggressively attacked purple, in a definite dichotomy that indirectly defended HK. For what felt like such weak reasoning for his scumread of pixie, this seemed to be a surprisingly strong defense of HK.

 

[MoltenAshes]

Molten, could you give me a specific post number or quote for #3? Your answers to #1 and #2 support the idea of us having the same role; I suggest you think of a question to ask me to convince you of my role as well.

Don't want to go too specific on the #3, as Id feel like that pointing out that post, and saying that that's where I sent soft-claimed, would give my role away.

Question: Vyryn Do you think Dess's role is likely/possible?

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Don't want to go too specific on the #3, as Id feel like that pointing out that post, and saying that that's where I sent soft-claimed, would give my role away.

Fwiw, I doubt it. You only have a few posts and I looked at them all specifically to try to find a softclaim and couldn't narrow anything down

 

[Nottykitten]

When I first read this it looked like a meme response. But now it looks like too casual for that to be the case. I think it's a slip. Any townie would know that our role cards explicitly mentioned we win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and would probably not even have thought of hedging like this.

Any person whose played more than two games would be able to quote the town win condition with their eyes closed.

+1 for the plant joke though

 

[ChocoFox]

—— Voting Recap ——
Deadline: 31 March 2019 UTC 22:00.

​

Dess - 2 (Infected_Alien8_, Stranger from Planet 9) [L-6]
Infected_Alien8_ - 2 (Aqua, Omni) [L-6]
Aqua - 1 (Purplepixies) [L-7]
Omni - 1 (Nottykitten) [L-7]
TehBrian - 1 (Vyryn) [L-7]

With 14 players, it takes 8 votes to lynch and 7 votes to no-lynch.

If no option reaches the required number of votes when a deadline hits, the day will end as a no-lynch.

Bold your votes if you feel like having them counted! Use the [.b][./b] tags without the periods if you're on mobile!

 

[Aqua]

Btw alisha called me disabled in role pm

This basically means I'm blocked tonight, don't know whether it's to do with the clock or someones PR.

Also the fact that the clock is pointing at me and omni seems like it's been controlled by someone.

finally before I go back to work TehBrian been pretty much gone ever since he started getting called out for being 3rd party.

 

[Notme]

Vy and notme : I was wondering if any one you noticed something that is not according to your roles,I’m assuming you didn’t as you haven’t mentioned anything alike.

Nothing unusual happened.

 

[Dess]

People keep saying that I had aggressively hard reads of HK as town when this is all I said about him?

HKCaper: Haven’t really seen any major contributions from them but their back and forth with inffy feels town sided to me. So Town.

 

[Kroppeb]

I'm writing down my read list atm but thought I'd respond to some stuff that already happend in the mean time

Nope, I didn't find anything unexpected last night, except that it lasted for considerably longer than 24 hours; I think that's probably significant, but no theories on why yet.

Choco's msg said that night would be at least 24 hours and day 1 would start at least 24 hours later. I don't see anything wrong I think.

Your calculations are problematic. Very much like "There's a <1% chance that we have four Ws in this C9++ game so Psycho must be lying about his Watcher claim". Of course if Dess is telling the truth he would want to pick three names he believes not only all individually have a high chance of being townie but also are strongly correlated with one another. Depending on how much faith you have in Dess's abilities, this could easily have brought the odds up better than even.

Of course I forget an important part of my thoughts. Yes I assumed by not picking random the odds would be higher. And that's why I found it so weird. The chance that it could result in 3 confirmed townies so soon feels op and something choco and alisha wouldn't have added to the game.
Secondly it was Everyone who said the chance is 1% therefore Psycho is lying. I told him he was wrong multiple times.

Btw alisha called me disabled in role pm
This basically means I'm blocked tonight, don't know whether it's to do with the clock or someones PR.
Also the fact that the clock is pointing at me and omni seems like it's been controlled by someone.

Interesting. If omni can confirm whether they are also blocked, we could see if it's the clock doing that or someone.

 

[MoltenAshes]

Fwiw, I doubt it. You only have a few posts and I looked at them all specifically to try to find a softclaim and couldn't narrow anything down

That's the point. If I mention which post is my "soft-claim", then it gives my role away sort of, but right now nothing looks like a soft-claim

 

[Sam_Winchester]

purplepixies I have a few questions for you:
-Why are you so convinced Aqua and Omni are mafia? I agree that they were def annoying yesterday, I'm just curious if you have any reasoning beyond that.
-How was HK too eager to kill Weak?
-If you believe that mafia is targeting strong players, why do you think they specifically chose HK over Inffy?

I'm starting to think more and more that purple might be scum. Panicking as a n00b is understandable, and definitely something I was guilty of last game (granted, as mafia), but these reads feel faked if you ask me.

-Omni has been scummy this whole time, very indirect. People say they play like this all the time, but since I'm new here and I'm just going off of feelings, I'm marking him as scum. Also anytime Omni votes for someone, Aqua is there. They were pretty quick to go on Weak after Weak had claimed his role and being town aligned was obvious.

-HK kept going after me as well, but only after Dess, Omni and Aqua had done thier job to put me against the rest of town, but THEN he quickly switched to Weak once weak started defending me, and for the same reason as me --aka "your clock theory is crap and not smart so you must be wasting time and be mafia" logic. I thought way too late that Inffy was probably right and that HK was mafia. Of course then HK turned to flip town which confused the hell out of me. I mean, if HK had backed down from Weak after he claimed, I would have not jumped unto HK.

- I have no concrete theory on why HK was chosen over Inffy, but my guts tell me it's because HK had less convincing power towards town. Once Inffy is out of the equation, I'd be next since they think they already separated me from the herd. Kinda like lions go after the lone gazelle first because it's alone and easy, then sevral moms, and finally the cubs because it's easier to take the ones who can't defend themselves last. I wouldn't be surprised if I died tonight, however it seems we might have 2 mafias blocked, and god I hope so. Turns out blue is a great color after all.

My one worry now is, if blue means blocked (Because Aqua and Omni seem to be blocked now according to Aqua), what the hell does yellow and green mean? I think we should ponder that before any town PR moves tonight. Another thing that has me worried is, if Aqua turns out to be town, or even worse a useful town with a good role, we might have just screwed it. I am hoping Aqua is mafia, Omni I'm not even questioning (I do believe Aqua might have like a 15% chance of being town, but not Omni.) If mafia comes after me tonight, I am begging whomever is town sided PR to consider protecting whomever they consider the strongest playing townie in their reads, that is if the next color could be a protective color.

 

[Sam_Winchester]

Also seems like my earlier vote wasn't noticed so

Unvote
Vote Omni

 

[Aqua]

They were pretty quick to go on Weak after Weak had claimed his role and being town aligned was obvious.

This didn't happen, what're you talking about. Omni being omni this game is pretty inconsequential to me but if somebody can see something in the way he's acting and behaving that screams scum to them, so be it. But what's the point in blatantly lying to try and force a lynch lmao.

Like purple, I don't want to help scum out but lying about stuff that people can easily just jump back to is fucking retarded lmao.

Unvote
Vote TWG48

I'd feel bad but dude has exams on and should REALLY prioritise his time better, Alisha don't distract him in deadchat

UNVOTE
vote TWG

I'm not gonna claim my flower because fuck you

I'm like a transporter that can switch two people during the night

Here are Omni and my votes for TWG, posts #599 and #601 respectively

That is TWG's claim post #686

After my vote I posted once more for post #604 and then not again for the rest of the day.

Omni didn't post once after his vote.

THE PERSON WHO DID, ON THE OTHER HAND, GO AFTER TWG AFTER HE CLAIMED AND HIS "TOWN ALIGNMENT W
Infected_alien8_ HOW, IN YOUR HONEST TO GOD SANE MIND ARE YOU DEFENDING THIS CHARLATAN

My one worry now is, if blue means blocked (Because Aqua and Omni seem to be blocked now according to Aqua), what the hell does yellow and green mean? I think we should ponder that before any town PR moves tonight. Another thing that has me worried is, if Aqua turns out to be town, or even worse a useful town with a good role, we might have just screwed it. I am hoping Aqua is mafia, Omni I'm not even questioning (I do believe Aqua might have like a 15% chance of being town, but not Omni.) If mafia comes after me tonight, I am begging whomever is town sided PR to consider protecting whomever they consider the strongest playing townie in their reads, that is if the next color could be a protective color.

Also what, when did I say omni was blocked? He might be blocked. We don't know until he responds.