[GAME OVER] Formula Mafia

[Infected_alien8_]

don't those contradict themselves though

woops i meant to only bold "some of the early votes are more likely to be inno as scum don't vote quickly together some of the time" for that second line

 

[Alisha]

huh where'd you get that impression from

where he gives himself a pat on the back for 'baiting' people a couple pages ago

calling himself a walking dictionary

saying he's blowing this game wide open

what stuff sounded towny/useful

he's making an effort to search for filler content such as from hk and skele (whether he's correct or not is dependent on your own opinion there) but i do see hk and skele as more 'outside' the current arguments so i can agree with his reads there

 

[Duffie]

ive only known this to happen to notty/you tbh
maybe me once on that post i had to write out in word but i dont think so
rare bingo spot!

Also JKangaroo

 

[HKCaper]

where he gives himself a pat on the back for 'baiting' people a couple pages ago

calling himself a walking dictionary

saying he's blowing this game wide open

he's making an effort to search for filler content such as from hk and skele (whether he's correct or not is dependent on your own opinion there) but i do see hk and skele as more 'outside' the current arguments so i can agree with his reads there

what do you consider 'current arguments'

 

[Alisha]

why though, why does me being town make it any more likely that others voting mars and mars himself is scum

if you vote mars and mars is town then that's bad

people know that you go all out with a vote, so they can pile on votes on your suspect and know you will take the heat

then again that requires you still being alive for them to throw you under the bus

if you're lynched instead and are town then idk i would need to revise my opinion on mars to be more likely scum and think those extra votes are more justified

 

[Alisha]

what do you consider 'current arguments'

marskid, vibes, reaction tests, semantics

 

[Infected_alien8_]

where he gives himself a pat on the back for 'baiting' people a couple pages ago

calling himself a walking dictionary

saying he's blowing this game wide open

ah lol, i read that as just him joking more than anything, except the bait thing i think he was just pleased with himself (and i would be too if i thought i baited people - altho i dont think he did actually bait scum there since ik skele skims things anyway and doubt he was caught up enough to see mars vote him and then decide to respond right after, i think he likely just got back to his pc, skimmed to catch up and posted - and hk i think did respond because he got voted but i think he did that as a townie not scum, realizing mars had an issue with his silence so decided to stop being silent)

 

[HKCaper]

i do recal the reaction test, but thought not much of it,

how is semantics a topic of an argument?

 

[Duffie]

I finally read the posts, but Im at work and replying needs tine so work I go

 

[Infected_alien8_]

if you vote mars and mars is town then that's bad

people know that you go all out with a vote, so they can pile on votes on your suspect and know you will take the heat

but in this scenario you said mars was scum, so why would his scum buddies be trying to wagon onto him and let me take the 'heat'

 

[Alisha]

i do recal the reaction test, but thought not much of it,

how is semantics a topic of an argument?

it was a counterpoint to the vibes stuff

 

[Alisha]

but in this scenario you said mars was scum, so why would his scum buddies be trying to wagon onto him and let me take the 'heat'

i didnt say he was scum i said i would look into them more

translation: i don't have enough information to know who's the most sus right now out of the voters and mars, if i don't factor you in

 

[Alisha]

ah lol, i read that as just him joking more than anything, except the bait thing i think he was just pleased with himself (and i would be too if i thought i baited people - altho i dont think he did actually bait scum there since ik skele skims things anyway and doubt he was caught up enough to see mars vote him and then decide to respond right after, i think he likely just got back to his pc, skimmed to catch up and posted - and hk i think did respond because he got voted but i think he did that as a townie not scum, realizing mars had an issue with his silence so decided to stop being silent)

its a pattern i noticed, it came up several times

 

[Infected_alien8_]

i didnt say he was scum i said i would look into them more

translation: i don't have enough information to know who's the most sus right now out of the voters and mars, if i don't factor you in

oh ok i get it now sorry

can you give a reads list pls

 

[Alisha]

oh ok i get it now sorry

can you give a reads list pls

yeah good idea hold on

 

[MarsKid]

whos considered you a lock-in lynch though

At least Stranger, Notty, Duffie. HK implied I was panicking. Looked like a rapid consensus FMPOV, including your demeanor towards me at the time.

idk why youre so convinced im making this tunnel up and its all to fit a narrative or whatever though?

Appeared to me a lot of your read was based on a misinterpretation of my playstyle. I don't think I'm any more or less extreme than before. This is diet compared to the days of Anvil Base = peak emo Mars.

i dont really get why you keep saying this tbh, i just wanted to know why it was you only called out skele for it and not anyone else, im not saying you have to in order for me to townread you

Skel's posting pinged me the most b/c of how it came off as fencesitting/just observing. Same route took me towards HK and Duff.

can you elaborate on why not

FMPOV voting was about to get stacked on me, and a NL in that situation will get played off as a deflection.

i don't agree, the reason day 0 lynches dont work well imo is since theyre the first lynch of the game and a lot of the time lynches get better after the first lynch since you have meaty discussion to analyse

if we nl today we're just shifting the mislynch to tomorrow instead most likely, unless a PR comes forward with valuable info that incriminates someone, which barely ever happens so early and most likely shouldn't

Fair. But then I do have to go back to the age-old question of: if this is true, why does D0 always become a no-lynch? IIRC Ender used to advocate for D0 lynches being viable but my only memory of one was nitasu's blunder.

how has their entire play been lockstep with skel, what does that mean?

Same meme-esque, observations-only style. It took a while for them to get moving on actual thoughts, and up to then it had been strictly memes in the context of more serious discussion.

why is my push disingenuous? and why can't you lynch me d0 realistically?

See: inaccurate meta read.

And someone of your activity/posting/etc. usually doesn't translate into a lynch early game, usually an NK if you're town. It's the JKangaroo effect.

flips from nights arent usually that useful in lynching scum though since scum wouldnt choose targets to kill which would incriminate them (hopefully)

and info from roles is rare d1, the most likely form of info we can get is from day 0 wagons, which can obv only happen if we lynch (or at least try to lynch) someone

Depends entirely on the scumteam in question and player activity. But I agree with this line of thought overall.

same but i also think hes panicking since he only had 3 votes yet considered himself being likely to be lynched, so he's blowing things out of proportion imo which is usually a side effect of panicking

i dont think panicking like that = scum though

I've been frustrated, not panicked. This ain't even close to full emo.

but its not is it? where?

Explained previously in this post.

how is that cherry-picking though, shes just being sarcastic about not contributing to day 0, it wasnt a point against you right?

Looked like a serious/more serious post IMO.

bold of you to assume oog isnt scum

Two to three scumreads of mine either letting the wagon go or joining it makes me think Moog was being used for consolidation. Boo was sitting here for a long while on little reasoning.

weird assumption to make as well, can you elaborate on why you think theyd remain close? relying on your scumteam to keep things even are you???

No reason to push myself close to death. As I've said, voting patterns pointed towards consolidation on me, and Moog was being kept near in second. Self-prez would have to be forced here.

nobody should, and i highly doubt a majority would, be lynching you for self-prezing, its the towniest thing to do in that moment and i think most people understand that!

Other forums I've played on view self-prez scummy. Differences in playing I guess.

as in if youre sus of someone, it should ideally be on someone whos already voting someone else? if thats what you meant, why?

I was referring specifically to wagons, not to spread-out votes. Wagon activity was sus IMO, do you think otherwise?

why do you think that

It's a blatant tell. Alisha being experienced makes me doubt they'd commit a noobslip, unless I'm getting WIFOM'd.

none of this will make it significantly more likely that we lynch mafia that day though

its incredibly unlikely a night kill choice will lead back to a mafia person as a suspect, and its incredibly unlikely that knowing there are multiple killers or a doctor or whatever will give read on any individual in the game (maybe if someone slipped that they were the second killer during a discussion of it for example but thats ofc unlikely to happen)

IMO flips are more valuable than you're giving them credit for.

why

Explained previously.

how though, shes saying its not reasonable for hip to say 'ur scum cuz you vibe me scum'

My counter was they were going vs. Alisha because of a vibe from the reaction test fiasco. Other votes/lynch options mentioned today were based on vibes, b/c vibes are usually as far as things go this early.

theres a town-who-doesnt-read-much-and-doesnt-care--that-much-who's-lynched mindset in this though, which is pretty normal for skele

This is meta I'm not aware of then. I don't like non-participation either way and their pop-in on cue is still off to me.

If I missed something lmk

 

[Mooglie]

can you give a reads list pls

ohno its starting

 

[MarsKid]

where he gives himself a pat on the back for 'baiting' people a couple pages ago

calling himself a walking dictionary

saying he's blowing this game wide open

Re: earlier posting about being emotional, I really don't know where the panic read comes from. I was frustrated, and I don't understand why that's unrealistic in the context of the wagon at the time. If I was taking these personally it'd be an AtE showcase up in here.

I got Boo to make a heel turn, Duff runs up for defense, Skel and HK only respond when voted = they've been observing but have decided not to participate. All pinged anti-town for me all at that time so I half-jokingly said things were wrapped.

Dictionary reference was a joke b/c I defined terms on an earlier page. Somewhat rude to assume I'm that egoistic ngl.

 

[Alisha]

NOT - scum - votes for no reason which even though sometimes its notty behavior, notty's few serious posts aren't reinforced and it feels like notty is going for a subtle approach this game which isnt behavior im used to
MOO - town - actually admitted to being wrong about the vibes thing long after the argument, at worst got sarcastic about it but has been a consistent voice of reason
STR - town - voice of reason for
INF - neutral - seems to be tunneling a lot but trying to back off of mars, feels genuine but at the moment im holding out for
HIP - neutral complicated - seems to be invested in the game which points to him being town but has said he's been lazy sometimes? - i haven't played with him enough to develop a meta read on him besides the investment in the current game
HKC - scum - lurking and being opportunistic about when to inject their opinions, i know hk lurks sometimes but it feels he's trying to stay off the radar for now
MAR - town or 3p, feels earnest in trying to find inconsistencies but i can't work out if he's just working with town and wants credit or is independent from the town
TIM - neutral - none of his posts have jumped out at me as memorable
ALI - best point getter in the neighborhood
OKX - neutral - inactive
BOO - neutral - boo does what boo does, but is jumping on everything and is using a lot of illogical conclusions...which isn't necessarily out of the ordinary from her, and i get the impression she is trying to contribute. dunno yet
GOO - neutral - well he's more active than last time he did a forum game, and his attitude is consistent with how he plays on LCN...i agree with mars that he needs to contribute meaningfully more
DUF - neutral - has been surprisingly active since the last time i commented on her posts, and even though jokes are still there duffie isn't afraid to act for controversal opinions and display her own a couple times
SKO - town - feels like a new person trying to fit in but not knowing how

 

[Mooglie]

MOO - town - actually admitted to being wrong about the vibes thing long after the argument,

did i

 

[HKCaper]

I really don't know where the panic read comes from. I was frustrated, and I don't understand why that's unrealistic in the context of the wagon at the time.

well there you have it. you were frustrated and to me that showed in your posts. its debatable if you were being full on wagoned, but nonetheles i can see where you are coming from. if panic is the best word to describe i dont know, i guess thats the semantics alisha was on about.

 

[Alisha]

Re: earlier posting about being emotional, I really don't know where the panic read comes from. I was frustrated, and I don't understand why that's unrealistic in the context of the wagon at the time. If I was taking these personally it'd be an AtE showcase up in here.

I got Boo to make a heel turn, Duff runs up for defense, Skel and HK only respond when voted = they've been observing but have decided not to participate. All pinged anti-town for me all at that time so I half-jokingly said things were wrapped.

Dictionary reference was a joke b/c I defined terms on an earlier page. Somewhat rude to assume I'm that egoistic ngl.

i never said you were egotistical, i said you took things personally in both directions

are you trying to get in a fight with every single person in the game

 

[Alisha]

did i

yes you said you were watching the show crazy ex girlfriend and after you stopped watching the next day you realized the direction i was coming from

 

[Skoomaeater]

I'm trying to get a read on people, but with zero history on everyone, and everyone referencing previous games, it's a little difficult.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

At least Stranger, Notty, Duffie. HK implied I was panicking. Looked like a rapid consensus FMPOV, including your demeanor towards me at the time.

what do you mean by lock-in lynch then? since duffie was never advocating for your lynch, or any lynch, you wanted a NL. notty voted you without a reason, presumably a reaction test if shes town, but gave no indication she was locked in on lynching only you. stranger i dont remember. hk implying youre panicking doesnt mean they want to lynch you though? i can understand my demeanor seeming like i wanted you dead and had made up my mind though

Appeared to me a lot of your read was based on a misinterpretation of my playstyle. I don't think I'm any more or less extreme than before. This is diet compared to the days of Anvil Base = peak emo Mars.

but why do you lean towards me purposefully misrepresenting it instead of genuinely misremembering?

Fair. But then I do have to go back to the age-old question of: if this is true, why does D0 always become a no-lynch? IIRC Ender used to advocate for D0 lynches being viable but my only memory of one was nitasu's blunder.

since most people cant make up their mind on a lynch or are too worried about mislynching so they vote no lynch

No reason to push myself close to death. As I've said, voting patterns pointed towards consolidation on me, and Moog was being kept near in second. Self-prez would have to be forced here.

but if most people voted you, oog wouldnt have to be anywhere near you anymore, since for example the votecount might be mars - 6, oog - 3, so why do you think theyd remain closer, who do you think would vote oog with you?

I was referring specifically to wagons, not to spread-out votes. Wagon activity was sus IMO, do you think otherwise?

oh ok

i didnt find anyones votes sus yet no, i thought nottys was just a reaction test, think boo just plays this way as town anyway, thought skele does as well

It's a blatant tell. Alisha being experienced makes me doubt they'd commit a noobslip, unless I'm getting WIFOM'd.

i dont think its a blatant tell personally, plenty townies change their mind lots with their votes, and i think alisha would feel fine doing it as scum

IMO flips are more valuable than you're giving them credit for.

how though

My counter was they were going vs. Alisha because of a vibe from the reaction test fiasco. Other votes/lynch options mentioned today were based on vibes, b/c vibes are usually as far as things go this early.

im still confused - you said that she contradicted herself since she sussed hip on vibes but took issue with hip calling her scum because she vibed him as scum, why was that, and what does that have to do with her opinion on alisha or anything (tbh you dont need to answer this since i dont think it will be relevant to your alignment i was just confused what you were saying)