EscapeRemastered Mafia: Economy of Madness [Day 3]

[Aqua]

yh im not saying it cant have increased im saying it cant have increased relative to the other possibility that theres 2 mafioso + 1 PR, cuz aqua's saying that twg being mafioso "massively supports" the idea that all of them are mafioso

but those scenarios of 3 mafioso vs 2 are both roughly equally likely right?

Well yeah and I explained why. It is multifaceted and goes beyond the obvious increase of 1/4->1/3

 

[Aqua]

are you saying that you thinking theres a 90% chance stranger/unu arent scum wont influence your read of them

and that if that 90% chance is wrong it could be bad for town

(ik youre not saying exactly 90 but still)

but if youre not convinced then thats fine i guess

90% was just hyperbole AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA I WANT OUT

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Well yeah and I explained why. It is multifaceted and goes beyond the obvious increase of 1/4->1/3

so then why are you saying that twg flipping mafioso massively increases the chance that all maf are mafioso instead of only some of them being

is that purely just a complete guess then

 

[Infected_alien8_]

90% was just hyperbole AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA I WANT OUT

i know thats why i said "(ik youre not saying exactly 90 but still)"

learn to READ

 

[Aqua]

so then why are you saying that twg flipping mafioso massively increases the chance that all maf are mafioso instead of only some of them being

is that purely just a complete guess then

NOOOOOOO

i know thats why i said "(ik youre not saying exactly 90 but still)"

learn to READ

THEN WHY BRING IT UP THEN??????

OK I'm done - I'm not responding to inf for the rest of the day HE HAS LOST THE PRIVILEGE TO TALK TO ME.

 

[Aqua]

Mooglie please u and inf are killing me just ask Tim, I beg

 

[Infected_alien8_]

NOOOOOOO




THEN WHY BRING IT UP THEN??????

OK I'm done - I'm not responding to inf for the rest of the day HE HAS LOST THE PRIVILEGE TO TALK TO ME.

because regardless whether thats 90% or 60% it will still influence your reads is my point, so it matters that we get the % right since wow you were thinking it was a lot more likely all maf were mafioso but UNU is saying we have no way to say that or not so you wouldve been going with a faulty assumption that couldve lead you to vote another player instead of one of the distributors which couldve lost us the game on faulty logic!!!!

btw Unusual_Dood why did you not want to vote twg yesterday and voted notty?

 

[Unusual_Dood]

My current theory is also that the safe is some sort of protection against an item-stealing role. That said, Unusual_Dood would you be ok with claiming your remaining two items now?

I still don't see why though.

In the interest of not dragging your feet unnecessarily - like I don't see the difference between your items getting revealed publicly through the auction or you claiming the items other than you stonewalling us about the latter for reasons(tm).

In general I'm not a fan of handing out information that is not necessarily useful for town, but can be used by mafias to coordinate their actions better.

 

[Mooglie]

?????

Just ask Tim whether the 1 coin you get is in real time or not and ask Tim what happens first donations or bidding.

For the love of god please.

TELL ME WHY
the donation/bidding priority is useful to town
also you really need to stop talking about noone else learning to read when tim posted in the thread that all money earned during the day or earned at night comes at the end of that time period, so no it doesnt come in real time

The donation box is public and Tim mentioned only valid donations are put through, so I don't see why they wouldnt confirm if donating more than you have is the 'invalid' here or they mean donations of <=0 (Infs coin amount in fact)

are you claiming

Mooglie please u and inf are killing me just ask Tim, I beg

literally die

 

[Mooglie]

are you claiming

lol sorry i was so mad at aqua for being actual human garbage

*are you claiming that i know the answer (and that its yes all your coins get sent through) and that im mafia since i dont see what youre trying to say in that post otherwise

 

[Aqua]

also you really need to stop talking about noone else learning to read when tim posted in the thread that all money earned during the day or earned at night comes at the end of that time period, so no it doesnt come in real time

Ok I'm just stupid and didn't put 2 and 2 together that, that was in reference to ur coins.

I'll give you that one.

TELL ME WHY
the donation/bidding priority is useful to town

Because oog

if ? bidding ? takes ? priority ? your ? plan ? won't ? work

it's not inherently useful to town it just prevents us from wasting our time on your plan or any other similar plans you might have in the future.

 

[Nottykitten]

Assuming the way of determining whether a role was mafioso or maf PR was completly random.

Then we initially had the combinations:
- 3 maf PR
- 2 maf PR, 1 mafioso
- 1 maf PR, 2 mafioso
- 3 mafiosos

When now knowing 1 is mafioso we have the combinations:
- 2 maf PR, 1 mafioso
- 1 maf PR, 2 mafioso
- 3 mafiosos

Basically, the 3 maf PR possibility is gone, regardless what the ratio is between the possibilities. So the 3 mafiosos possibility has increased, and likewise the 2 maf PR+1 mafioso and 1 maf PR + 2 mafioso has increased.

I don't think thats how it works, isn't it just like a 4-door version of the monty hall problem?

 

[Mooglie]

Because oog

if ? bidding ? takes ? priority ? your ? plan ? won't ? work

it's not inherently useful to town it just prevents us from wasting our time on your plan or any other similar plans you might have in the future.

wasting time???
in our 3.5 day deadline???
to type 1 line???

and either way the plan forces the mafia to donate at least the amount of money to meet the donation theyre meant to give, which causes them to waste money, which is inherently good for the town

there is literally 0 reason to not do the plan if youre town and the fact youre arguing so much against it makes me quite suspicious of you

i just do not see a reason this needs to be cleared up at all and it will cause the mafia more confusion to leave it unknown
the only point you have is that the knowledge may help on a future day's plan, but literally the question can be asked then

but tbh i am gonna ask just so i can have the knowledge to myself and im not gonna share it here so you can SUFFER

but tbh v2 maybe i am the stupid one so

Infected_alien8_ Nottykitten my trusted consults do you think its worth asking whether bidding or donation takes priority

 

[Aqua]

I don't think thats how it works, isn't it just like a 4-door version of the monty hall problem?

I'm not familiar with the monty hall problem but if you include intuition into the equation I don't see how it's not a >1/4 to a >1/3?

 

[Infected_alien8_]

wasting time???
in our 3.5 day deadline???
to type 1 line???

and either way the plan forces the mafia to donate at least the amount of money to meet the donation theyre meant to give, which causes them to waste money, which is inherently good for the town

there is literally 0 reason to not do the plan if youre town and the fact youre arguing so much against it makes me quite suspicious of you

i just do not see a reason this needs to be cleared up at all and it will cause the mafia more confusion to leave it unknown
the only point you have is that the knowledge may help on a future day's plan, but literally the question can be asked then

but tbh i am gonna ask just so i can have the knowledge to myself and im not gonna share it here so you can SUFFER

but tbh v2 maybe i am the stupid one so

Infected_alien8_ Nottykitten my trusted consults do you think its worth asking whether bidding or donation takes priority

idk since i dont really understand the plan because im bad with numbers

but i trust your opinion!!

 

[Infected_alien8_]

from what ive gathered though

either it wont work cuz of the bidding in which case oh well we didnt lose anything by trying

or it will work despite the bidding in which case its better than bidding?

 

[Nottykitten]

I'm not familiar with the monty hall problem but if you include intuition into the equation I don't see how it's not a >1/4 to a >1/3?

How about you learn some statistics nerd

Infected_alien8_ Nottykitten my trusted consults do you think its worth asking whether bidding or donation takes priority

Not particularly

 

[Mooglie]

suck on those eggs aqua

 

[Mooglie]

tbh im not even gonna ask for myself incase the answer gets put in the thread since i genuinely think it serves no good purpose for this information to be public at all

 

[Aqua]

How about you learn some statistics nerd

I looked it up and I have seen that before - not entirely sure how that's applicable here tho because we don't know the determined outcome

 

[Infected_alien8_]

lets all sing Kumbaya with sessy as we lynch lynch aqua for the fun of it

 

[Infected_alien8_]

lynch lynch

ok brain

 

[Unusual_Dood]

I don't think thats how it works, isn't it just like a 4-door version of the monty hall problem?

not sure what that is

 

[Aqua]

not sure what that is

I'm by no means a statistician but I don't think this is relevant here

 

[Nottykitten]

I'm by no means a statistician but I don't think this is relevant here

I've 0 idea if it's relevant to whatever nonsense you and Inf are talking about, I was just talking about what Unu said