let's not explode [day 5 - GAME OVER (MAFIA WIN)]
- Thread starter Jivvi
- Start date
Enderfive
sarcasm incarnate
use your head pls, if what hubter is saying is true then no town roles visit anyone anymore, doc prtoect whoever he/she has been protecting so far and massclaim, lynch ccs and victory
seriously though what are you saying ltin
if you b e l i e v e sam's claim of gadget mechanics
then no one use action
then gadget can't explode everyone !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
then lynch between ccs, game's over, everyone go home, town wins probs, the end
if you b e l i e v e sam's claim of gadget mechanics
then no one use action
then gadget can't explode everyone !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
then lynch between ccs, game's over, everyone go home, town wins probs, the end
Alright it does kinda make sense.
But there isn't much room for error.
If we all claim, mafia knows exactly what every role is.
Assuming all the mafia claim civilian, we have to choose between them.
There is a chance we could get it wrong. Mafia on the other hand would get it absolutely correct.
In order to counter the gadget doc shouldn't use his action either.
There isn't much room for error.
But there isn't much room for error.
If we all claim, mafia knows exactly what every role is.
Assuming all the mafia claim civilian, we have to choose between them.
There is a chance we could get it wrong. Mafia on the other hand would get it absolutely correct.
In order to counter the gadget doc shouldn't use his action either.
There isn't much room for error.
Nottykitten
Nomnomnom kitteh!
We could always use math to find out if mass-claiming would be beneficial or not. I mean I tried it isn't 100% perfect(probs not even 50%) but whatever this is what I came up with:
With 13 living players, these are the remaining roles:
Town: Paper Boy, Drunk, Mayor, Nurse, Doctor, Civilian(x4)
Mafia: Gadget, Quack, Ringleader
Third Party: Mystery role
Again, we presume that the Mafia would claim civilian since they don't want to be in a CC situation against any of the remaining PR's. Same with the Mystery Role. This means we will have 8 civilian claims. 4 of which are anti-town, 3 of which are Mafia. If we take out Hunter as someone who is likely town, there is a 4/7 chance to lynch an anti-town if we lynch from the civilian pool, and a 3/7 chance we lynch a Mafia. Three scenarios spring from this:
So basically we lynch a Civ we'll likely lose, and if we lynch a Maf we'll likely win. However there is a way we can increase the town's odds.
We have the Mayor claim civilian aswell. The mayor should just pretend to be a civilian and that'll be great for us. Because if we do almost lynch him, he can just double vote and prove he's the Mayor and we can lynch someone else. However if the Mayor hasn't outed yet, the Mafia will have 1 more target that they think is civilian. So even if we do lynch a civilian, instead of the mafia having a 75% chance of killing a civilian during the night, they'll only have a 60% chance. And on further days the likelyhood of them killing either the Mystery Role or Mayor are getting higher, and giving us a bigger chance of winning.
Town: Paper Boy, Drunk, Mayor, Nurse, Doctor, Civilian(x4)
Mafia: Gadget, Quack, Ringleader
Third Party: Mystery role
Again, we presume that the Mafia would claim civilian since they don't want to be in a CC situation against any of the remaining PR's. Same with the Mystery Role. This means we will have 8 civilian claims. 4 of which are anti-town, 3 of which are Mafia. If we take out Hunter as someone who is likely town, there is a 4/7 chance to lynch an anti-town if we lynch from the civilian pool, and a 3/7 chance we lynch a Mafia. Three scenarios spring from this:
Shit we just lynched a civilian. 3 civilians left for the Mafia to kill. They know who they are(except for the Mystery Role), and have a 3/4 chance of killing a civilian that night. If they do hit a civilian, there will be 3 Mafia left and 2 civilians. At that point they've basically won because we can only lynch one person every day and even if we lynch right, when they kill one civilian every night, the Mafia will win because there are more Mafia than civilians.
So obviously if we lynch a civilian and do nothing we lose. So the doctor will have to protect people during the night and hope they save someone. However the gadget can kill the doctor and his two targets and it's likely that it'll be a 50/50 wether or not the doctors targets were Mafia or Civilian. I mean I'm sure theres a few more scenarios/factors but I'm pretty sure that if we lynch a civilian we're basically in a 50/50 relying on whatever the doc/gadget decide to do and who they do it on.
So obviously if we lynch a civilian and do nothing we lose. So the doctor will have to protect people during the night and hope they save someone. However the gadget can kill the doctor and his two targets and it's likely that it'll be a 50/50 wether or not the doctors targets were Mafia or Civilian. I mean I'm sure theres a few more scenarios/factors but I'm pretty sure that if we lynch a civilian we're basically in a 50/50 relying on whatever the doc/gadget decide to do and who they do it on.
We did it reddit! With 4 civilians left and only 2 Mafia, odds of us beating the Mafia are pretty high. With any luck we might have even killed the Gadget and then the Mafia is basically done for since our doctor can freely protect 2 civilians every night.
We finally find out what the Mystery role was, but it's not very helpful against the Mafia. After they kill a civilian during the night, there will be 3 Mafia and 3 Civilians. We'd have to lynch perfectly or we're done for. If we lynch a Mafia every day, we win unless there are gadget/doctor shenanigans going on. If we lynch a civilian, we pretty much lose.
So basically we lynch a Civ we'll likely lose, and if we lynch a Maf we'll likely win. However there is a way we can increase the town's odds.
We have the Mayor claim civilian aswell. The mayor should just pretend to be a civilian and that'll be great for us. Because if we do almost lynch him, he can just double vote and prove he's the Mayor and we can lynch someone else. However if the Mayor hasn't outed yet, the Mafia will have 1 more target that they think is civilian. So even if we do lynch a civilian, instead of the mafia having a 75% chance of killing a civilian during the night, they'll only have a 60% chance. And on further days the likelyhood of them killing either the Mystery Role or Mayor are getting higher, and giving us a bigger chance of winning.
TL;DR: If we do massclaim, it's basically a 50/50 wether we lynch a civilian or not. If we do the odds are against us. If we lynch a Mafia we're very likely to win. However either way the Mayor should absolutely claim civilian because that will increase our odds of winning by quite a bit.
wait wait wait
how many prs have claimed already actually
there was oak the maven
you the paper fuck
ltin the drunk
sooth died n1
so the only unclaimed are doc and nurse
also tbh the 3p could do whatever, they don't seem to be an sk
how many prs have claimed already actually
there was oak the maven
you the paper fuck
ltin the drunk
sooth died n1
so the only unclaimed are doc and nurse
also tbh the 3p could do whatever, they don't seem to be an sk
Mastersten
In Omnia Paratus
Wow okay?