Mafia: Saints & Sinners - GAME OVER MAFIA WIN

[sessybessy]

I'd rather see you, Aqua or Sessy lynched. But I'd be open

Sessy - Her vote on Beta rubbed me the wrong way - dunno if it was a joke but something seemed off

Hi sorry I'm here I kinda forgot to check forums for a while.

I voted Beta because of the last minute claim and the fact that he was like "If I tell you it will reveal something about me" it just seemed so...weird.

This whole claim just seems so weird like now we have 4 sinner claims (I think it's 4) it just seems that, how the roles are described as being able to make a deal with the devil, there wouldn't be that many? Then saying that you claimed under pressure from everyone, what pressure? No one suspected you that much until now, I'd expect Aqua or even Vat to claim at this point since there's been a lot of spotlight on them. I feel like people are just claiming the sinner role for the fun of it now because people are starting to see Alisha as a town member more (at least I am), her claim seems more 'normal' now that we see everyone else scrambling to claim sinner.

Have we been told what the devil can give sinners in return, do you 'sinners' know?

 

[Alisha]

I feel like people are just claiming the sinner role for the fun of it now because people are starting to see Alisha as a town member more (at least I am), her claim seems more 'normal' now that we see everyone else scrambling to claim sinner.

is this the start of the greatest comeback story of all time?


yes, yes it is!

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Fog could have lied and say I “did get the ability let me live another night“ and get one of his mafia buddies to corroborate his claim, but didn't take that route.

problem is his maf buddies are all in the spotlight so he'd not be able to get them to fake prove his claim without people suspecting that that's exactly what happened so this plan would've failed

even if that's somehow not true, and you/beta are town, fog could've easily just not thought it was worth making another of his buddies seem scum if fog did end up getting lynched in the future and revealing he wasnt a sinner all along

you could say he could've told us he'd prove his mail, but then not done, and save himself for one night, but that'd be confirming his lynch in one day's time, when it was still possible he wasn't going to be lynched by the time he claimed. if he thought he could live for longer than a day then claiming to be able to send mail and knowing he was going to fall short and thus be lynched tomorrow would've been ending his life earlier than necessary if he still had hope of surviving longer, which he easily could've done at that point

(and even if Devil is acting alone, I imagine there would be some way of preventing this issue through alignment changes or whatnot)

what does this mean?

I think Inf is the mastermind behind these actions as he's been calculated and only picking fights that he can easily win, not fights that he genuinely thinks should help town.

vote Infected_Alien8_

so what fights have i avoided getting into? if you think i'm selectively picking fights then surely that means you've seen potential fights that i ignored and only went with ones you think i'd think would be easy to win?

He's also clever enough to nokill and reject a Mail request, so away my vote goes;

vote Infected_Alien8_

why would i nokill if i was mafia? if i need majority to be gone then nokilling is the opposite of helping me do that

Inf is scum so he can't nightkill himself! You're also heavily pushing the current suspects so you're a vote in scum's favor right now!

but still, even if we assume you, beta and fog are all town, it'd be better for mafia to nightkill someone, anyone other than you guys, because why would that directly decrease focus on you guys, and it'd get them one step closer to a majority

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Timdood3 do you think alisha/fog's claims are legit? why/why not?

 

[Fog]

but traditionally isn't someone who's made a deal with the devil allowed to live the rest of their life before joining the devil in hell? Obviously nothing stops the devil from killing them prematurely, but that's neither here nor there.

Reading this made me wonder, what happens if the devil is unable to vote for the souls he has claimed? Hence a reason to reject the deal?

But I want to hear more about Fog's night chat. You know who you were talking to, right? It wasn't anonymous? And was it a one night thing or do you still/will you continue to have access to it?

I know who, we spoke to each other directly, the chat was open for one night only.

you could say he could've told us he'd prove his mail, but then not done

I would like to argue that I could have sent a letter to a mafia player who refused to admit that I had delivered it. Which again confuses me as to why the deal was rejected.

 

[Alisha]

problem is his maf buddies are all in the spotlight so he'd not be able to get them to fake prove his claim without people suspecting that that's exactly what happened so this plan would've failed

even if that's somehow not true, and you/beta are town, fog could've easily just not thought it was worth making another of his buddies seem scum if fog did end up getting lynched in the future and revealing he wasnt a sinner all along

you could say he could've told us he'd prove his mail, but then not done, and save himself for one night, but that'd be confirming his lynch in one day's time, when it was still possible he wasn't going to be lynched by the time he claimed. if he thought he could live for longer than a day then claiming to be able to send mail and knowing he was going to fall short and thus be lynched tomorrow would've been ending his life earlier than necessary if he still had hope of surviving longer, which he easily could've done at that point

The strategy would still make a single mislynch more likely, and getting lynched one day from now instead of today is universally good for scum.

what does this mean?

if devil is the only scum around then they definitely can recruit people - i don't think Fog would be recruited in this instance

so what fights have i avoided getting into? if you think i'm selectively picking fights then surely that means you've seen potential fights that i ignored and only went with ones you think i'd think would be easy to win?

you chose not to engage me at first and I think town inf would still try to tunnel me in that instance.

you initially seemed apprehensive of aqua but now appear to be on the same wavelength as him somehow.

why would i nokill if i was mafia? if i need majority to be gone then nokilling is the opposite of helping me do that

not if it guarantees town mislynches!

but still, even if we assume you, beta and fog are all town, it'd be better for mafia to nightkill someone, anyone other than you guys, because why would that directly decrease focus on you guys, and it'd get them one step closer to a majority

then we'd be able to scratch our heads and go 'why would they target this person'

 

[Fog]

Would like to point out it is not out of the question that Doc saved the mafia target. So it may have been a no lynch or somebody may know some info.

 

[Timdood3]

Timdood3 do you think alisha/fog's claims are legit? why/why not?

Concerning Alisha, she's definitely a sinner. I do believe that at least one sinner is mafia, though.
I want to believe Fog's claim on the basis that if it's true it helps us glean information of what the consequences of deals are. But thinking too hard about why his deal got rejected can get pretty wifomy.

not if it guarantees town mislynches!

a 100% (minus whatever for docs) chance of killing a townie at night + X% chance of mislynch during the day is still better than 0% of a nightkill +X% of a mislynch.
The same statement without the words:
100% + X% > 0% + (>X%)

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I would like to argue that I could have sent a letter to a mafia player who refused to admit that I had delivered it. Which again confuses me as to why the deal was rejected.

yeah but that could easily not be believed and still result in your death and not be any better than just not lying about having the mail

The strategy would still make a single mislynch more likely, and getting lynched one day from now instead of today is universally good for scum.

i wouldnt say fog was that likely to be lynched today, or that he had reason to think he was, so yeah while getting lynched a day from now instead of today is better, there was no real reason to be that concerned about dying today that you decide to lock in your death for tomorrow instead, when he could've lasted even longer than that. i dont agree that fog claiming would've made a single mislynch more likely because as of the end of yesterday you were the most scumread and there was no reason to believe that was any different today i dont think, and fog claiming wouldn't change that. so regardless of whether youre scum or town it'd still probably result in you being lynched, so claiming wouldn't have resulted in no significant change of likelihood of a mislynch, and i dont see why fog would disagree with that at the time when he claimed

you chose not to engage me at first and I think town inf would still try to tunnel me in that instance.

you said yourself it made logical sense for me to back down. the sole reason i suspected you was since i thought you said 'misinterpreted', i realized i misread it. are you saying as town id have continued to think you were scum despite having no reason to believe that anymore?

you initially seemed apprehensive of aqua but now appear to be on the same wavelength as him somehow.

i was initially neutral of aqua since nothing he was doing was indicative of alignment. now we both agree on the same suspects so yeah we are on the same wavelength

not if it guarantees town mislynches!

but surely killing someone else like skele or mars or aqua or anyone other than you wouldn't have changed people being suspicious of you compared to if i nokilled

then we'd be able to scratch our heads and go 'why would they target this person'

do you really think that'd save you? say if skele was nightkilled, do you think town would go 'huh weird skele died, maybe alisha's innocent after all'

people could easily think 'i guess maybe they didn't target aqua/inf because they feared that would confirm aqua and inf were on the right track so they targeted someone else and hoped it'd put people off the lynch' and continue being suspicious of you, and i couldve easily killed a threatening PR night 1 simultaneously

 

[Timdood3]

Reading this made me wonder, what happens if the devil is unable to vote for the souls he has claimed? Hence a reason to reject the deal?

What do you mean by being unable to vote for them?
Like if you make a deal with the devil he can't vote for you?
That just seems like straight upside for the sinner and the opposite of what we should expect.
I don't think that the rejection is anything more than "This side of the deal is not beneficial to me right now."

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Concerning Alisha, she's definitely a sinner. I do believe that at least one sinner is mafia, though.

so don't you think maf could've just been given the sinner role info and alisha claimed it even though she's the devil or something?

 

[BetaPanda]

Hello

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Hello

hi

did you make a deal with the devil yesterday?

 

[Aqua]

This could be support for a form of Aqua's "eliminate sinners" theory as a wincon, but if the goal is to kill sinners after they've made a deal, why would he reject one? Much less a mail deal. Imo mail is the worst option we have to choose from.

My theory isn't to eliminate sinners per se but to get all their souls either that be by killing them or by making deals with them. If my hypnosis hypothesis is correct, I wouldn't be surprised if making deals was the ONLY mafia wincon - which definitely would explain why there was no nightkill.

Fog being proven innocent would remove a suspicious townie from the potential mislynch pool, Fog is not a random townie.

So you think mafia didn't nightkill or accept fogs DWTD which I think is safe to assume would benefit them in some way just so we might lynch him today...? That seems like such a stretch Alisha ur tinfoil hatting real hard right now.

It would be far more reasonable for them, at the very least, to nightkill a randomer assuming inf and I are mafia so that they gain some benefit from the night.

And why would fog being removed from the mislynch pool have any concurrent effect on today's vote. Assuming you're innocent, fog being proven doesn't help you as his lack of hammering could easily be explained by his ignorance. You would still as likely be scum.

are you saying as town id have continued to think you were scum despite having no reason to believe that anymore?

What if you were emotional? :^)

What do you mean by being unable to vote for them?
Like if you make a deal with the devil he can't vote for you?
That just seems like straight upside for the sinner and the opposite of what we should expect.
I don't think that the rejection is anything more than "This side of the deal is not beneficial to me right now."

He's just spouting nonsense theorycrafting to try and appeal to town ignore him

 

[Aqua]

Timdood3 Alisha thoughts on my only one DWTD can be made per night theory?

 

[BetaPanda]

hi

did you make a deal with the devil yesterday?

nope

 

[Alisha]

Timdood3 Alisha thoughts on my only one DWTD can be made per night theory?

that means there's more than 4 sinners or someone is lying about not taking a deal rn

 

[Aqua]

that means there's more than 4 sinners or someone is lying about not taking a deal rn

I mean a) not everyone who claimed here is a sinner so it's not as if there can't be more unclaimed sinners in the game
b) hypnotist theory

 

[Alisha]

also where the fuck is marskid at he's not short of opinions

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I mean a) not everyone who claimed here is a sinner so it's not as if there can't be more unclaimed sinners in the game
b) hypnotist theory

i mean with b) wouldn't they get told if they were hypnotised since they'd gain an ability

 

[Aqua]

i mean with b) wouldn't they get told if they were hypnotised since they'd gain an ability

They'd get it tonight, right Alisha?

 

[Aqua]

also where the fuck is marskid at he's not short of opinions

You know Mars is gonna be pro fog lynch, it's the most reasonable position to take rn
(unless ofc something else comes up - via town pr)

 

[Alisha]

They'd get it tonight, right Alisha?

sure?

 

[Aqua]

sure?

Wdym "sure?", I'm trying to reaffirm how your convoluted DWTD works - ur the one who supposedly has the role ?

 

[Infected_alien8_]

sure?

is that a yes or an i dont know