Mafia: Saints & Sinners - GAME OVER MAFIA WIN

[Good Skele]

Uh...You proving yourself would be me losing my ability...Not my ability going through...I don't understand your thought process here?

But I'm caught up, I guess I wasn't as far behind as I thought.
To make some information more accessible, claims tables, separated by sinner & saint:

Poor Sinners	Day 0	Night 1	Day 1	Night 2
Fog	Deal	Rejected	Lynched	..
Sessbessy	??	??	??	Night Killed
Timdood3	No Deal	..	Deal	Accepted
Alisha	No Deal	..	No Deal	..
BetaPanda	No Deal	..	No Deal	..

Saint	Saint Name	Ability	Night 1	Night 2
Aqua	Joseph	Bless a poor sinner to prevent them from making a deal.	Alisha	Timdood
HKCaper	Jean?	Doctor	Aqua	Forgot
Infected	Forgot	Undo a previously made deal.	??	??
Good Skele	Forgot	Choose (visit?) a player, and on death at night, reveal that player's alignment.	??	Vatumok?
Unusual_Dood	Forgot	Drags a player into a night chat.	Fog	Forgot

If someone could update me with the information I've forgotten/missed I would greatly appreciate it, as well as remind me of twg and Vat's claims. I'll leave this post at that to keep it clean.

Name - Bernadette. Night 1 - Fog, and Night 2 indeed was Vatumok.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

still down to just lynch twg or vat. yes we can let aqua check them, but seems like a hassle.

this post was originally an argument for why we shouldnt lynch any sinners today but i realised halfway through that my argument didnt make sense and actually maybe we should lynch a sinner

we have 4 unchecked sinner claims and realistically aqua's not gonna be unblocked/unkilled for more than 1 more night if hes town (the only way he's gonna be able to survive unblocked/unkilled tonight is if maf block hk and kill tim instead)

so tonight is probably our last night, if at all, we get to check another sinner

right now there's 4 left to check so the chances of us sussing out a correct lynch tomorrow (which will be mylo if we're wrong again today) based off aqua's check tonight will be better if we lynch 1 sinner today, if we assume that at least 1 of those sinner claims is mafia (which im gonna assume is the case). since if we mislynch today there's an at least 1/3 chance aqua hits scum (2/3 if theres 2 scum in the sinner pool). and there's an at most 2/3 chance he hits town, bringing the remaining sinner pool to a 50% chance of lynching scum or not.

so actually lynching sinners today is fine i think?

so sure if we cant get the votes for UNU ill vote vat and aqua can check someone else

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Uh...You proving yourself would be me losing my ability...Not my ability going through...I don't understand your thought process here?

as in, if im scum like she thinks, that will be proven tonight anyway so she can just get me tomorrow, whereas theres a chance i can prove myself town if you survive + say so, so leaving me til tomorrow is the best move

But I'm caught up, I guess I wasn't as far behind as I thought.
To make some information more accessible, claims tables, separated by sinner & saint:

Poor Sinners	Day 0	Night 1	Day 1	Night 2
Fog	Deal	Rejected	Lynched	..
Sessbessy	??	??	??	Night Killed
Timdood3	No Deal	..	Deal	Accepted
Alisha	No Deal	..	No Deal	..
BetaPanda	No Deal	..	No Deal	..

Saint	Saint Name	Ability	Night 1	Night 2
Aqua	Joseph	Bless a poor sinner to prevent them from making a deal.	Alisha	Timdood
HKCaper	Jean?	Doctor	Aqua	Forgot
Infected	Forgot	Undo a previously made deal.	??	??
Good Skele	Forgot	Choose (visit?) a player, and on death at night, reveal that player's alignment.	??	Vatumok?
Unusual_Dood	Forgot	Drags a player into a night chat.	Fog	Forgot

If someone could update me with the information I've forgotten/missed I would greatly appreciate it, as well as remind me of twg and Vat's claims. I'll leave this post at that to keep it clean.

i'm Saint Cassidy and i visited noone n1 and vat n2
hk is saint christopher
UNU is saint jean
twg and vat both claim sinner

 

[Good Skele]

My suspicion remain the same, so
Vote Vatumok

 

[Vatumok]

this post was originally an argument for why we shouldnt lynch any sinners today but i realised halfway through that my argument didnt make sense and actually maybe we should lynch a sinner

we have 4 unchecked sinner claims and realistically aqua's not gonna be unblocked/unkilled for more than 1 more night if hes town (the only way he's gonna be able to survive unblocked/unkilled tonight is if maf block hk and kill tim instead)

so tonight is probably our last night, if at all, we get to check another sinner

right now there's 4 left to check so the chances of us sussing out a correct lynch tomorrow (which will be mylo if we're wrong again today) based off aqua's check tonight will be better if we lynch 1 sinner today, if we assume that at least 1 of those sinner claims is mafia (which im gonna assume is the case). since if we mislynch today there's an at least 1/3 chance aqua hits scum (2/3 if theres 2 scum in the sinner pool). and there's an at most 2/3 chance he hits town, bringing the remaining sinner pool to a 50% chance of lynching scum or not.

so actually lynching sinners today is fine i think?

so sure if we cant get the votes for UNU ill vote vat and aqua can check someone else

Only 3 right? Beta, Weak and me.
You are correct that killing a sinner is not a bad idea as night actions will give us information regarding saints. Either one of them dies or Aqua can clear me another sinner. I still think that 2 out of the saints are lying about their role and only 1 sinner is lying which is probably Weak though I do consider Beta as a possible option.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Only 3 right? Beta, Weak and me.
You are correct that killing a sinner is not a bad idea as night actions will give us information regarding saints. Either one of them dies or Aqua can clear me another sinner. I still think that 2 out of the saints are lying about their role and only 1 sinner is lying which is probably Weak though I do consider Beta as a possible option.

oh right its just 3 yeah

why do you think 2 saints are lying

 

[Vatumok]

oh right its just 3 yeah

why do you think 2 saints are lying

I guess mostly because assuming Aqua speaks the truth, Tim and Alisha can be cleared. I myself am obviously town. Beta I guess could be sinner scum together with Weak but I feel like he's trustworthy. There being 3 scum is only an assumption but generally in games about 1/4 is mafia and 1/4 is PR from modes I've played. This means that the other 2 scum essentially have to be in saints, plus I think a lot of the claims are not super solid from them.

 

[Vatumok]

And considering the case Aqua is lying, then HK essentially has to be in on it. That means that already 2 saints are scum even though alisha and tim cannot be cleared. If it wasn't for HK backing Aqua up I probably would've continued pushing him as I still think his behaviour this game has been weird.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I guess mostly because assuming Aqua speaks the truth, Tim and Alisha can be cleared. I myself am obviously town. Beta I guess could be sinner scum together with Weak but I feel like he's trustworthy. There being 3 scum is only an assumption but generally in games about 1/4 is mafia and 1/4 is PR from modes I've played. This means that the other 2 scum essentially have to be in saints, plus I think a lot of the claims are not super solid from them.

i guess this makes sense from your pov

from my pov you could easily be scum, and then beta/twg both could be as well

whats your opinion of lynching UNU then instead of skele? why have you been completely silent about it?

 

[Timdood3]

So my thoughts on Aqua vs Inf. Unless there's something I'm missing, their roles appear to be pretty much the same thing. Thinking about it, I'm having flashbacks to last game when inf & I had similar roles and Aqua had to parse us out. I can't imagine both roles being fake, and both seem to indicate deals are bad since why else would a role exist that remove's a sinner's agency? Well, the obvious answer to that is "because that role isn't town" but I severely doubt that both roles would belong to anti-town.

From a non-mechanical standpoint, I've townread Aqua pretty much all game and I will continue to stand by that.
To be quite honest, I don't think inf is telling the truth about his role at all, I don't see room for it in the game. I actually think that his claim makes sense to be a mafia roleblocker cover, because he can still "undo a deal" in that the sinner's ability doesn't happen. And if he were to be tracked, he wouldn't really be caught out as a roleblocker because he was expected to visit them. By this logic, I don't trust inf to let him visit me tonight because I don't actually believe that it undoes the consequences. The phrase "a deal's a deal" comes to mind. Thematically, I can't think of a way for it to make sense.

@inf what is the flavor of your role, by what means is the deal undone?

 

[Vatumok]

i guess this makes sense from your pov

from my pov you could easily be scum, and then beta/twg both could be as well

whats your opinion of lynching UNU then instead of skele? why have you been completely silent about it?

I'm not sure about unu, I'd be okay with lynching him but my preference is still with Skele for being defensive and his claim being very easy to fake. WeakGuy is also still an alternative I prefer to Unu, that's why I guess i haven't talked much about it.

Also Good Skele why did you choose to visit Fog n1, it seems a bit random looking that you suspected me from the start and Fog wasn't in the spotlight yet.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

So my thoughts on Aqua vs Inf. Unless there's something I'm missing, their roles appear to be pretty much the same thing. Thinking about it, I'm having flashbacks to last game when inf & I had similar roles and Aqua had to parse us out. I can't imagine both roles being fake, and both seem to indicate deals are bad since why else would a role exist that remove's a sinner's agency? Well, the obvious answer to that is "because that role isn't town" but I severely doubt that both roles would belong to anti-town.

what do you think of my arguments here:

however, if i entertain the thought of aqua being town, i then have to explain why his and my role both exist. i can think of two ways we would both exist though.

the first is that 1) there are scum deal-makers, 2) the anti-town-sided consequences of scum's deals are such that if i cancel the deal the next night, that action helps town, and 3) the anti-town consequences of town sinner's deals are such that cancelling the deal the next night is pointless because the damage is already done. this would mean that my role is ineffective if i target townies, and only effective if i target scum deal-makers - and aqua's role would be the exact opposite, being effective only against townies, and not against scum. this would be reason for us both to exist - we both hit blind spots of each other.

the second is that, for balance purposes, stranger decided that having only 1 town role that could, each night, either stop scum from making a deal OR stop town from being forced into it, wouldnt be town favoured enough for whatever reason (and the reasons would involve what the deals actually do), and wanted town to have a bit more chance against deals, and since having 2 roles able to stop mafia deals seemed too town favoured, she chose instead to make another role who was able to only prevent town sided deals, but was still powerful in its own right due to the mini-cop aspect.

both those scenarios are imo fairly reasonable/realistic and i could easily see one being the case, so coupled with my town read on aqua,
after working through it all in my head, i do think its realistically possible that we both co exist, i dont have enough reason to believe otherwise, and i dont want to lynch based off it.

To be quite honest, I don't think inf is telling the truth about his role at all, I don't see room for it in the game. I actually think that his claim makes sense to be a mafia roleblocker cover, because he can still "undo a deal" in that the sinner's ability doesn't happen. And if he were to be tracked, he wouldn't really be caught out as a roleblocker because he was expected to visit them. By this logic, I don't trust inf to let him visit me tonight because I don't actually believe that it undoes the consequences. The phrase "a deal's a deal" comes to mind. Thematically, I can't think of a way for it to make sense.

if i were a blocker that wouldn't cover my role since you'd still be able to use the ability on another night. my claim is that i revoke your ability completely, meaning you wont be able to use it on another night. so if im a blocker, my claim wouldnt save me, itd prove me to be scum if i was lying

@inf what is the flavor of your role, by what means is the deal undone?

i dont have any, and this point i cant really refute, i know its strange/suspicious, thats why i said 'sue me' when i first claimed

im Saint Cassidy. i visit someone at night and if they've dealt with the devil the previous night, i undo the deal and any consequences resulting from it cancel (no i dont have any flavour of how this works, sue me)

 

[Infected_alien8_]

if i were a blocker that wouldn't cover my role since you'd still be able to use the ability on another night. my claim is that i revoke your ability completely, meaning you wont be able to use it on another night. so if im a blocker, my claim wouldnt save me, itd prove me to be scum if i was lying

like, you'd still have the ability if i were lying. if im telling the truth you lose it and you get told your deal has been undone so you'll know for sure im lying either way

 

[Aqua]

AquaJosephBless a poor sinner to prevent them from making a deal.AlishaTimdood

That quote probably hasn't worked but I visited you n1 and alisha n2

 

[Infected_alien8_]

That quote probably hasn't worked but I visited you n1 and alisha n2

vote UNU or vat?

 

[Vatumok]

vote UNU or vat?

You blame me for not talkign about unu but why are you not considering to lynch Weak?

 

[Good Skele]

Also @Good Skele why did you choose to visit Fog n1, it seems a bit random looking that you suspected me from the start and Fog wasn't in the spotlight yet.

At the beginning I had quite a weird feeling about him.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

You blame me for not talkign about unu but why are you not considering to lynch Weak?

since twg and i have a complete null read on them, so if we're open to lynching sinners now id much rather go for you since im actually sus of you

 

[Infected_alien8_]

since twg and

since twg is afk* is what i wrote but idk where it went

 

[Infected_alien8_]

and also you called twg out for having a bad claim so i kinda doubt he's your partner too, like with skele, if im right about you

 

[Vatumok]

and also you called twg out for having a bad claim so i kinda doubt he's your partner too, like with skele, if im right about you

Then with your theory if I am bad, who else would be on my team? Unu and Beta?

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Then with your theory if I am bad, who else would be on my team? Unu and Beta?

yeah although i just looked back and you werent as harsh/pushy on job being scummy as i was remembering so i could see him being scum with you too actually

 

[Aqua]

vote UNU or vat?

Could go either or for who's actually scum, unu has been pretty absent this game where as vat is here but from how he's played so far I'd be concerned whether he'd have a positive impact on town after we're gone.

So probably vat I guess.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

i think vat/UNU/beta/twg has the scumteam in it

even if im wrong about vat i think skele is town tbh, my gut was pretty strong that we were about to mislynch him, and all game he's been a slight townread of mine and i shouldnt ignore that

so lynching 1 of vat/unu/beta/twg today and 1 tomorrow imo is very likely to guarantee us a successful lynch on one of those lynches

and i propose we lynch UNU first just since aqua, if he lives, can prove me wrong on all the other people, but if UNU doesnt get enough votes im fine lynching vat instead

 

[Vatumok]

yeah although i just looked back and you werent as harsh/pushy on job being scummy as i was remembering so i could see him being scum with you too actually

I'd be fine with voting either but I would pref Weak cuz I have a feeling like he is more scummy than Beta. Regardless I doubt that all mafia are hiding between saints so we should guarantee a scum lynch today or tomorrow using Aqua's checking ability (or find out that he's lying). That should save us 2 days to see what mafia does with night actions and who of saints can be trusted.