Okay so I guess I'll just claim right away since I don't think it really matters TOO much because of reasons below and hopefully a doctor exists and can protect me if everything goes smoothly - I'm Agent #1 and I'm basically a weak cop role I guess. Every night I choose two people to "recommend" to my superior about who to investigate, and then in the morning I get a result (I'm not sure if this superior is another person's role or not, and if they are, I don't know if they get the result too or not). But there's a twist - I got told my communication device is broken and so the results I receive has 50% chance of being incorrect (as in the results are scrambled to show a random alignment). Last night I recommended Oak and Jk, and this morning I got Oak back as "other" and Jk as "terror" (which I'm presuming means terrorist/mafia team). Since Oak is third party if we can trust the deaths, that means it's likely that the results I got were accurate, meaning Jk is evil and should be lynched!
To further confirm this was the fact that I was already, and still am, suspicious of Jk (hence why I chose him last night). I'll quote some of his posts and explain why:
#VoteMei2016
Eh... Even then there won't be much to go on. We've only hit page 2 and since it's day 0, almost nothing worthwhile comes out of Day 0 (besides epic memeage) unless something
really dumb happens.
...Or theres a debate between no lynching and lynching
...Or anything else.
I usually just consider this time to be a short break time before the game starts to see if everyone has checked in already.
At most I guess we could consider
ze' ~Artist~ and
[The Stock Broker] to be potential real roles but eh, too soon to tell right?
Also:
Vote No Lynch because I always vote nolynch Day 0's.
Nice job everyone, that's probably one of the best first days in Topian Mafia history.
Now we just have to make the cop doesn't die on the very first day and it'll be a new record for us!
Fantastic job.
But really, this is great.
This is actually a great time to take a look and make a guess at what
could be expected, just based off of how the Mafia/Town ratio seems to trend in a lot of these games.
So here's the current players and our dead amigo's:
(shamelessly stolen from Ltin's first post on page 1)
------------------------------------------------
PLAYERS:
1. Dessern5
2. CaffeinatedKitty
3. Wimali
4. Timdood3
5. Samlen - Terrorist(Generic Mafia)
6. Jkangaroo
7. Ooglie101
8. Oak63 - Investor
9. Nottykitten
10. Mulbery - Terrorist(Generic Mafia)
11. Infected_alien8_
12. Vatumok
13. Marskid
14. hipman500
15. webpaige
-----------------------------------------------
So let's take a look at our two dead Mafioso's.
Now I'm guessing that by "generic mafia" that just means they were vanilla mafia members that really didn't have any special PR abilities--- but I guess "generic" could also mean its the generic mafia faction and there could be another? Doubtful since we're in a bit of a low player count game so I'm just gonna disregard that idea for now.
But I guess usually, Mafia groups tend to be around 3-5 people proportional/depending on the size of the starting player count(or more if there's a 2nd faction):
If there were 3 mafia that would be 1/5th of the town, which to me feels too low.
So there's probably either 4 or 5, I'm betting on 4 since having it be 1/3rd of the total players feels a bit too big x).
And with (im guessing(?)) third party down with Oak, it's likely there's only 1 or 2 other third-parties, unless this ends up being a pretty third-party heavy game like TBD was (but I don't think it'll get to that level x] )
Even though Oak was third party his role doesnt seem to really make him evil/against town just loyal to his bets, so I guess he could still win if his guesses win! (im guessing separate from a mafia/town win)
And so I guess that leaves probably a serial killer for another third-party role we can guess exists based on who died.
So I guess a ratio of 9 town/2 third-parties/4 Mafia's is a good bet to go on?
And as much as I think a no-lynch sounds appealing, I feel like we should try to lynch someone, or at least make the most of our day.
Like, did anything happen to a power role last night that might give us a clue into potential mafia/third parties, like maybe if a watcher exists, and they saw someone visit someone/etc.
I dont know.
I bet the new Fence put him up to it!
It's all a conspiracy to get me killed! *shakes fist*
Oh, and what would that reasoning be might I ask?
There must be a reason, I'm sure its just not just because you love me so much that you don't want me to witness the cruelty of the upcoming days.
(but it totally is right? Oh, my hero!)
I'm guessing it has to be something that happened last night, since I doubt I've(well, everyone really, where is everyone?) talked enough to really have said anything suspicious. I have-- what, 3, 4 messages top?
Being so vague certainly doesn't help us understand your reasoning; I certainly am not convinced, I mean, I'm pretty non-suspect in my opinion.
Wow. </3
I didn't know you all considered
murder such a happy affair.
I'm shocked! Shocked I say! I thought I knew you all better. *dramatic/teary flourish*
I definitely think you should at least provide
some reasoning. Just saying "hopefully hes not innocent" doesn't really help anyone; it doesn't give anything for the town to stand on to make a good, educated guess in taking off the town. Randomly lynching without at least
some basis, especially if there
could be an explanation available, which there could be if you gave people a reason.
Lynching based off a gut feeling can be good, but usually gut feelings have a source, even the smallest detail, to back it up.
(Like how say, isn't it weirdly funny how Samlen is almost always Mafia in our games? x) He was even Mafia this game if we trust that death. It seems like that persona clings to him)
But still, just hoping I get lynched is--- that's so little to go on, especially if I can prove/show that I'm innocent.
I can't exactly do that now since I don't really know
why I need to defend myself since I don't think I've done anything wrong this game.
Now, if I were a conspiracy theorist I would say that all the recent talk of the deaths last night being a potential janitoring/messing to throw off the town could hold some water, and if I get lynched and do show up as anti-town (which Im not mind you), then the town would gain your trust when in actuality, you were tricking them the whole time being anti-town yourself!
...But I'm not a conspiracy theorist(or am I?!?
That was totally a role in a past Mafia game iirc) so I don't think that silly idea holds water.
Ew, murder was supposed to be in red, like blood.
Who things of murder and things orange.
The atmosphere is now ruined!
So the thing that stood out to me here, and what got my gut saying he's mafia immediately I think, is where he says, "
Vote No Lynch because I always vote nolynch Day 0's.". Idk, this just jumped out at me as a "vote no lynch but to not be suspicious for voting anything I'll say it's because that's what I always do!". Also, his whole post just reeked of "trying to appear thoughtfully thinking about our options and seeming townlike even though I'm not". I noticed in Priz's game that Kj's posts were often like this - usually large, thoughtful posts, usually never giving an actual opinion but just letting everyone know what's going on, what could be going on, what our options are, etc. Like he's trying to appear town by trying to appear as helpful as possible, but he's not town. I was suspicious of him because of this waaay back then, and I am now too (and he turned out to be mafia that game.
Then today, his large post where he helpfully gives us a big breakdown of what just happened, along with a big list of everyone who has died, and thoughtfully considers what may have happened, all in one big post, idk, I can't give a reason as to WHY it makes me think he's mafia, it's just a vibe thing, his posts, to me, just STINK of mafia trying to be town, trying not to seem suspicious at ALL TIMES. He also seems wary of pushing his opinion out there because he doesn't want to attract attention - he finishes his post with "I don't know."
When I decided to vote on him to see his reaction, he didn't react like I'd expect a town role to act. He made it into a joke, saying "Love you too </3" - someone had just voted him, a town person would likely at least question why, but Kj didn't do that because he knew very well why someone might vote for him, because he's mafia and he got investigated last night or something, and so to not appear like he's too freaked out by being voted he made the little jokey comment. He also then proceeds to make another jokey comment about the fence telling me to. Of course this could have been him perceiving my joke as a vote, but his posts after that stunk of suspicion too.
Here's a quote of what he said, along with my annotations on it in bold:
There must be a reason, I'm sure its just not just because you love me so much that you don't want me to witness the cruelty of the upcoming days. (but it totally is right? Oh, my hero!) (trying to make it into a joke to play it cool and not get too worked up about being voted)
I'm guessing it has to be something that happened last night, since I doubt I've(well, everyone really, where is everyone?) talked enough to really have said anything suspicious. I have-- what, 3, 4 messages top?
Being so vague certainly doesn't help us understand your reasoning (he's just been voted by someone claiming they are confident he's mafia, and what does he do? Rather than defending himself, and asserting the fact that he knows he's not mafia and so my information/gut feeling/whatever has to be wrong, he VERY HELPFULLY gives me tips on how to be more beneficial for the town. "do this to help us, we, as a town, all of us town people, yeah me included, we need you to be more clear so it helps us!!! *looking round to make sure everyone's watching him be this cool totally-town guy*); I certainly am not convinced, I mean, I'm pretty non-suspect in my opinion.
(another joke to play it off as cool and casual. No accusations towards me, no assertions that whatever information I have must be false or wrongly used because he knows for a fact he's town, just a very careful prod at me to find out why I think he's suspicious so he can plan how to respond next, all while looking as townie as he possibly can, despite the fact that a real townie probably wouldn't be so concerned with that in his circumstance - they'd be concerned with the guy telling everyone they're mafia.
--
Then his next post, which as said before, very much fits the format of "trying to appear as helpful and townie as possible even though a real townie probably wouldn't be trying this hard")
Wow. </3
I didn't know you all considered murder such a happy affair.
I'm shocked! Shocked I say! I thought I knew you all better. *dramatic/teary flourish* (joke to make it seem like he doesn't really care that much coz he's just an insignificant town role!)
I definitely think you should at least provide some reasoning. Just saying "hopefully hes not innocent" doesn't really help anyone; it doesn't give anything for the town to stand on to make a good, educated guess in taking off the town. (I've just said I'm confident he's mafia and he's helping me persuade people of it by telling me that to be more helpful to the town, "THE SIDE IM ON BTW GUYS", I need to give a more detailed reason. I'm accusing him of being evil and he's saying "you need to give more reasons so we can know whether or not to lynch me" - whaaat? Why would a town person say that at all? They'd defend themselves and tell me I'm wrong, not submerge their post in "hey guys just a reminder that I'm constantly trying to help town!") Randomly lynching without at least some basis, especially if there could be an explanation available, which there could be if you gave people a reason.
Lynching based off a gut feeling can be good, but usually gut feelings have a source, even the smallest detail, to back it up. (Like how say, isn't it weirdly funny how Samlen is almost always Mafia in our games? x) He was even Mafia this game if we trust that death. It seems like that persona clings to him) (again, just filling his post with a guide to how to help the town)
But still, just hoping I get lynched is--- that's so little to go on, especially if I can prove/show that I'm innocent. (someone who is observing this situation would likely say something like this. "wanting us to lynch this guy because you hope for it, with no evidence, isn't very convincing, so I'm unsure." but the guy being accused of being mafia, why would he concern himself with this in his post? If you're town and some guy is yelling that we need to kill you, you wouldn't react to that by saying "well idk, that's so little to go on, you need to give more reasoning!". It doesn't make sense to me. I think he's trying his absolute best to keep a cool face and try not to reveal how much he's scared of being lynched, and at the same time trying to appear as townie as possible.)
I can't exactly do that now since I don't really know why I need to defend myself since I don't think I've done anything wrong this game. (OH YOU "DON'T THINK" YOU'VE DONE ANYTHING WRONG THIS GAME DO YOU OKAY! So what he means here, is that he doesn't think he's done something suspicious enough to be investigated and he couldn't have been watchered because he didn't do the kill, so he needs me to tell him WHY I find him suspicious so he can plan how to respond. As a town role he'd KNOW he hasn't done anything wrong this game! Also he says wrong, not "suspicious", which I consider a slip, like his consciousness leaking out in his text - he isn't saying he doesn't think he's done anything suspicious, he's saying he doesn't think anyone should know about the bad/"wrong" things he's done!!!)
Now, if I were a conspiracy theorist I would say that all the recent talk of the deaths last night being a potential janitoring/messing to throw off the town could hold some water, and if I get lynched and do show up as anti-town (which Im not mind you), then the town would gain your trust when in actuality, you were tricking them the whole time being anti-town yourself! (little performance for us all - "Aha, you could be trying to frame me and when I do appear anti town the townsfolk gain your trust!!!", which means "ppsssttttt, this ain't gonna work because now I've said this the town might still not believe you to be innocent so stop trying to get me lynched!" This is the ONLY time he concerns himself with defending himself properly rather than the focus being on appearing calm and townie, and even here it's such a tiny defense/attack on me. He even says at the end that despite typing all that idea out, he doesn't think it holds any water (which is him saying "but I don't want to get even more suspicious to you inf because if it's just a gut feeling I'd make it worse, so I'm not going to attack you properly, just a jokey conspiracy theorist thing)
...But I'm not a conspiracy theorist(or am I?!? That was totally a role in a past Mafia game iirc) (little side comment thing to give off calm vibes) so I don't think that silly idea holds water.
And then he makes another jokey "calm vibes, dw guys I'm chill, not a big deal going on right now, joking about the colours of my text haha!"
Also his use of emoticons is weird. It's like his just peppering his text with little signs of "I'M NOT TAKING THIS SERIOUSLY GUYS BECAUSE I'M A CHILLED TOWN ROLE".
I've probably missed some stuff (when I got mafia vibes from him it was just a kind of vague thing - I didn't know exactly
what made it that way so I've just gone back and picked the details out that I think stood out to me).
And I'll finish this post off by saying that:
First game of mafia, Russian Mafia, gut told me jolt was mafia on day 0 (and he was), and told me caff was mafia (which lead to my death, and turns out she was mafia), and jk was mafia (and he was). (but it also told me myusername was mafia on day 0 but then he claimed doc and I believed him so that guy feeling went away and turns out he was doc)
Second game, Let's Not Explode, gut told me Hunter was 3p (he was)
Last game, gut told me caff and dess were mafia (this was before raxo told me - and they were)
And on epicmafia I'm always getting things right so I TRUST MY GUT AND WANT THIS MAN LYNCHED!
Hopefully claiming hasn't been a terrible idea - hopefully a doc can protect me, and I have a feeling I'm not the only agent since I'm called #1, so if I die I think an other agent just takes over maybe? That's my theory after analyzing my PM, since it kind of hints to something like that.
So yeah hopefully I've convinced you guys to vote Jk, and if he does turn out to be town then I SINCERELY APOLOGIZE, VIGILANTE FEEL FREE TO KILL ME IN THE NIGHT IF YOU WANT, but I'm confident he's not! I understand if you guys wanna wait til tomorrow to kill him but we got three deaths this morning - maybe killing kj could prevent one or even two of those deaths somehow, and maybe save some powerful role, so I think we should lynch him now. Besides, he's so chill about being voted he clearly isn't a town pr anyway, right?!
Oh and also, if there's some kind of like, technology fixing role out there or something, maybe you can fix my communication device! I don't know if that's a thing or if it's just a bit of story to explain my role, but yeah.