Republic - Completed

Mooglie

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autocracy is better because the downsides are that we might be forced to NL but we also get an extra 2 kills tonight so we dont actually lose anything in the event we're forced to NL, and there's a decent chance we won't have to NL anyway
except under autocracy ender dies and we lose one of our two nightkills (and a poisoner under democracy)
 

Aqua

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autocracy is better because the downsides are that we might be forced to NL but we also get an extra 2 kills tonight so we dont actually lose anything in the event we're forced to NL, and there's a decent chance we won't have to NL anyway
We aren't gonna no lynch??????

And no it isn't, the dictator will die.
 

Unusual_Dood

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I'm a little unsure whether democracy or autocracy is best at this point. We went with autocrazy yesterday and since the dictator died instantly it only gave us the dictator kill instead of a lynch, which we would gotten if we went with democracy. I am currently leaning towards democracy as it probability wise would be more useful to get the extra dictator kills later in the game. We will also have more options later in the game, and hopefully some mafias are dead by then. I am still not completly convinced democracy is the way to go though.
 

Infected_alien8_

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I'm a little unsure whether democracy or autocracy is best at this point. We went with autocrazy yesterday and since the dictator died instantly it only gave us the dictator kill instead of a lynch, which we would gotten if we went with democracy. I am currently leaning towards democracy as it probability wise would be more useful to get the extra dictator kills later in the game. We will also have more options later in the game, and hopefully some mafias are dead by then. I am still not completly convinced democracy is the way to go though.
If we don't use our dictator kills until late-game it will be already too late most likely

With Me/Fali/Ender/Roob I'd argue that the chances Notty guessing the Dictator are a lot lower than yesterday

Unless we somehow manage to lynch the poisoner real soon, Democracy isn't gonna work out most likely, as you pointed out with your stats yesterday we're better off with Autocracy, and just because the dictator died a day early and our doctor died, that doesn't change
 

Unusual_Dood

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If we don't use our dictator kills until late-game it will be already too late most likely

With Me/Fali/Ender/Roob I'd argue that the chances Notty guessing the Dictator are a lot lower than yesterday

Unless we somehow manage to lynch the poisoner real soon, Democracy isn't gonna work out most likely, as you pointed out with your stats yesterday we're better off with Autocracy, and just because the dictator died a day early and our doctor died, that doesn't change
We currently have 14/15 townies, 1 rev and 6/7 mafias left so it's not like we 'have lost' if we go with democracy 1 day or two. Ideally Notty/rev will attempt to kill some mafias, to balance it more out (so they get more controll and have better chances winning), which they can quite easily together with our lynch. I am almost certain that we will have time to choose autocracy later, and if I am correct then the probability for killing mafias will much higher + we will have more information.
 

Unusual_Dood

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, Democracy isn't gonna work out most likely, as you pointed out with your stats yesterday we're better off with Autocracy
The stats I made yesterday was influenced by your assumption that both maf and rev always killed town. However, rev wouldnt never do this since they had essentially lose, so at some point they will have to start balancing it out, by killing mafias. Once they do that mafias have the equal ammount of kills as town + rev, and we have time to have autocrazy.
 

Infected_alien8_

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We currently have 14/15 townies, 1 rev and 6/7 mafias left so it's not like we 'have lost' if we go with democracy 1 day or two. Ideally Notty/rev will attempt to kill some mafias, to balance it more out (so they get more controll and have better chances winning), which they can quite easily together with our lynch. I am almost certain that we will have time to choose autocracy later, and if I am correct then the probability for killing mafias will much higher + we will have more information.
Notty's suspects are 2 uncc town PR and jivvi/77th, none of whom seem mafia to me, I really don't think putting hands in the town of Notty managing to kill Maf is a good idea
 
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