Who claimed Regular Guest(4):
Ooglie101
HypeBurst
Ltin
Cooliorules
Who claimed Ghost(1):
Sploorky
Who claimed Toymaker(1):
Notty
Who claimed Floor 7 Director(1):
Ansoro2112
Who claimed Barman(2):
GmK
Jivvi
Who claimed Swat(2):
Endersteve5
xXxFruitNinjaxXx
Who claimed Rough Sleeper(4):
77_is_The_best
Raxo2222
Unbeliever
Hunter27a1
You might notice right there in the spoiler, 4 people claimed Rough Sleeper. Which is totally funny because there can only be one. Which means, 3/4 people are scum. Which calculates to an 75% chance that we lynch a scum today.
In case you are wondering how, here is what my plan was:
I was looking through the stuff I wrote when suddenly I realised that 6/11 of the people who claimed PR were scum. Which changed into 6/10 being scum when Ansoro was un CC'd. I saw an opportunity here and claimed my own role, so that we knew for certain 6/9 people who claimed PR but no specific one were scum. Which is a 66% chance we get a non-town.
Since there were only 3 PR's that were able to be claimed[Barman, Rough Sleeper, Swat], it would mean that if we force-claimed everyone that each PR would get 2 CC's.[because 6 scum and 6 divided by 3 roles is 2] Which would still be a 66% chance we get a scum. That was originally my idea when I claimed my role. But then it got me thinking; what if I could make that chance higher.
Instead of forcing everyone to claim, I was trying to make sure the least amount of people claimed/CC'd. The reason I chose GmK to claim first was because I trust him and was pretty sure he would go along with my idea and figure out what I was doing. And instead of getting the 2 CC's that we would get if we force-claimed all PR's at once, GmK only got 1 CC. Which left for 5/7 of the people claiming PR to be scum.[With 1/2 being scum within the Barman claim]. Which is a 71% chance that we lynch a scum from the people who claimed PR but not a specific one.
Then my next step would be for Endersteve to claim. Since I though he would go along with it as easely as GmK. It didn't come to this though since he said something about this plan and not trusting that it would help the town. So instead I wanted for the Rough Sleeper to claim. Which also got changed when Raxo claimed Swat. [or so we thought]. Anyways in the end I figured that the Swat claiming was actually better than the Rough Sleeper claiming. And look, turns out Ender claimed after all! =3. So I just went with that and initiated the vote-claim round for the Swat which ended with Fruit's claim.
And thus after the Swat claims, Ender also only got 1 CC instead of the 2 that he would get if we would have forced all PR's to claim at once. Which left a total of 4/5 people who didn't claim PR to be scum. How? Well there is only 1 PR left that didn't claim yet, which is the Rough Sleeper. Besides that there is no PR left they could possibly be. So they HAVE to be scum. And 4/5 is an 80% chance we would get a scum today.
This slightly changed when Sploor claimed. But Sploor's claim was a good thing, since the Ghost is on the town's side and we can always use more people on our side. This leaves 3/4 of the people that didn't claim any PR to be scum. Which is a 75% chance we get a scum.
So in short; the plan wasn't to look at who claimed, it was to look at who didn't claim. Which worked perfectly because the non-town were either too afraid to claim when there was already 1 CC, or they just didn't think it was a good idea to CC. Which made it perfect to set them up as since eventually by not claiming they actually claimed the Rough Sleeper =D.
So that was my plan. However, besides giving us a high chance to lynch scum. This also guarantees us a few other advantages and more trouble for the Mafia/Third party. Not gonna name them all because too tired and don't want to tell the mafia how we are gonna beat them =3.
As last I would like to say this: today we lynch any of the Rough Sleeper claims. Because the 75% chance is just too great to pass along. I would suggest anyone of them but 77. 77 said that he "had an idea of my plan". And if he had any idea what my plan was, he wouldn't have claimed non-swat unless he was the actual Rough Sleeper. Ofcourse I'm not gonna trust him, but it's just a hunch and I'd rather not have him die today.
Second: Swat, don't kill your CC tonight. Instead kill one of the rough sleeper claims[Not any of them, don't kill the one I'm telling the knife to kill because if both target 1 person that would be a waste of power]. The mafia might try to kill you tonight, and if they do than they automaticly show your CC to be scum. So no need to kill him if we can get someone else durnig the night and then lynch the CC during the day.
Third: Knife, kill one of the Rough Sleeper Claims. I thought long about this, and at first I would have suggested you kill Jivvi and we see which of the Barmen is the true one. But the risk would be too great and the knife would be put to better use if someone who is almost guaranteed scum dies. In fact, you should kill Unbeliever. No special reason for Unbeliever, but we can't take the chance you and the Swat both target the same person, would be a total waste. So this way if the Swat knows who you're killing then the Swat can choose someone else.
And last: Barman be smart about who you block tonight.
I think this pretty much got us the upper hand against the scum. And if we lynch the actual Rough Sleeper today, it would be really sad but also makes 4 people confirmed scum.
This would be my best guess for the 75% chance we lynch scum, but if you have any other ideas please do tell: Vote Raxo
Who claimed Regular Guest(4):
Ooglie101
HypeBurst
Ltin
Cooliorules
Who claimed Ghost(1):
Sploorky
Who claimed Toymaker(1):
Notty
Who claimed Floor 7 Director(1):
Ansoro2112
Who claimed Barman(2):
GmK
Jivvi
Who claimed Swat(2):
Endersteve5
xXxFruitNinjaxXx
Who claimed Rough Sleeper(4):
77_is_The_best
Raxo2222
Unbeliever
Hunter27a1
You might notice right there in the spoiler, 4 people claimed Rough Sleeper. Which is totally funny because there can only be one. Which means, 3/4 people are scum. Which calculates to an 75% chance that we lynch a scum today.
In case you are wondering how, here is what my plan was:
I was looking through the stuff I wrote when suddenly I realised that 6/11 of the people who claimed PR were scum. Which changed into 6/10 being scum when Ansoro was un CC'd. I saw an opportunity here and claimed my own role, so that we knew for certain 6/9 people who claimed PR but no specific one were scum. Which is a 66% chance we get a non-town.
Since there were only 3 PR's that were able to be claimed[Barman, Rough Sleeper, Swat], it would mean that if we force-claimed everyone that each PR would get 2 CC's.[because 6 scum and 6 divided by 3 roles is 2] Which would still be a 66% chance we get a scum. That was originally my idea when I claimed my role. But then it got me thinking; what if I could make that chance higher.
Instead of forcing everyone to claim, I was trying to make sure the least amount of people claimed/CC'd. The reason I chose GmK to claim first was because I trust him and was pretty sure he would go along with my idea and figure out what I was doing. And instead of getting the 2 CC's that we would get if we force-claimed all PR's at once, GmK only got 1 CC. Which left for 5/7 of the people claiming PR to be scum.[With 1/2 being scum within the Barman claim]. Which is a 71% chance that we lynch a scum from the people who claimed PR but not a specific one.
Then my next step would be for Endersteve to claim. Since I though he would go along with it as easely as GmK. It didn't come to this though since he said something about this plan and not trusting that it would help the town. So instead I wanted for the Rough Sleeper to claim. Which also got changed when Raxo claimed Swat. [or so we thought]. Anyways in the end I figured that the Swat claiming was actually better than the Rough Sleeper claiming. And look, turns out Ender claimed after all! =3. So I just went with that and initiated the vote-claim round for the Swat which ended with Fruit's claim.
And thus after the Swat claims, Ender also only got 1 CC instead of the 2 that he would get if we would have forced all PR's to claim at once. Which left a total of 4/5 people who didn't claim PR to be scum. How? Well there is only 1 PR left that didn't claim yet, which is the Rough Sleeper. Besides that there is no PR left they could possibly be. So they HAVE to be scum. And 4/5 is an 80% chance we would get a scum today.
This slightly changed when Sploor claimed. But Sploor's claim was a good thing, since the Ghost is on the town's side and we can always use more people on our side. This leaves 3/4 of the people that didn't claim any PR to be scum. Which is a 75% chance we get a scum.
So in short; the plan wasn't to look at who claimed, it was to look at who didn't claim. Which worked perfectly because the non-town were either too afraid to claim when there was already 1 CC, or they just didn't think it was a good idea to CC. Which made it perfect to set them up as since eventually by not claiming they actually claimed the Rough Sleeper =D.
So that was my plan. However, besides giving us a high chance to lynch scum. This also guarantees us a few other advantages and more trouble for the Mafia/Third party. Not gonna name them all because too tired and don't want to tell the mafia how we are gonna beat them =3.
As last I would like to say this: today we lynch any of the Rough Sleeper claims. Because the 75% chance is just too great to pass along. I would suggest anyone of them but 77. 77 said that he "had an idea of my plan". And if he had any idea what my plan was, he wouldn't have claimed non-swat unless he was the actual Rough Sleeper. Ofcourse I'm not gonna trust him, but it's just a hunch and I'd rather not have him die today.
Second: Swat, don't kill your CC tonight. Instead kill one of the rough sleeper claims[Not any of them, don't kill the one I'm telling the knife to kill because if both target 1 person that would be a waste of power]. The mafia might try to kill you tonight, and if they do than they automaticly show your CC to be scum. So no need to kill him if we can get someone else durnig the night and then lynch the CC during the day.
Third: Knife, kill one of the Rough Sleeper Claims. I thought long about this, and at first I would have suggested you kill Jivvi and we see which of the Barmen is the true one. But the risk would be too great and the knife would be put to better use if someone who is almost guaranteed scum dies. In fact, you should kill Unbeliever. No special reason for Unbeliever, but we can't take the chance you and the Swat both target the same person, would be a total waste. So this way if the Swat knows who you're killing then the Swat can choose someone else.
And last: Barman be smart about who you block tonight.
I think this pretty much got us the upper hand against the scum. And if we lynch the actual Rough Sleeper today, it would be really sad but also makes 4 people confirmed scum.
This would be my best guess for the 75% chance we lynch scum, but if you have any other ideas please do tell: Vote Raxo
Yeah that is what I thought you would do. My vote still stands on raxo because he can't even be the rough sleeper because both CC'd barmen have targetted him in the previous nights.
I figured it out as well, although it took me some time lel. Anyway, it's a mighty good plan, actually, so I'm gonna go with that.
Of the four, raxo has already been the most suspicious to me so far and since people are voting for him anyway, I'm just gonna hop on the train. At the moment replying to Fruit seems unnecessary (gonna hope he goes along with the plan as well) and because of that, I'm gonna save my explanations and defenses for another time.
UGH I counter claimed to hide myself from mafia. So either i'm getting by Mafia or by Town. Apparently its not vorking.
So to make it even funnier I Claim SWAT!
Here are my targets:
N0: no visits because no suspicions.
N1: Nottykitten, because his strategy seemed to be suspicious. I was blocked.
N2: GmK, this time he was most suspicious. I was blocked yet again.
OKAY SO BOTH THE SWAT AND ROUGH SLEEPER HAVE 3 CLAIMS, SO IT'S A 66% CHANCE OF GETTING SCUM IN THOSE ONES, BUT THEN WHO DOES THE REAL SWAT KILL AND WHO SHOULD THE PERSON WHO GETS NOTTY'S KNIFE KILL, THIS GAME IS SO EXCITING AAAAH.
I'm keeping my vote. I made it perfectly clear towards Raxo that he would be lynched if he lied.
"Answer this question, are you the SWAT or not. I will take your word for the next answer that you bold. If you change it after that I will probabily lynch you. So please don't lie on this answer."
If he is the actual Swat, then he just doomed the town. But I will not believe him. This is probabily just Raxo trying to make us unvote.