The Bloody Masquerade Ball [GAME OVER]

Timdood3

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Havent read all the post because I wanted to fix everyones math here.

With 7 mafia and 18 town, the chance of lynching a mafia is not 7/18. Since we have 25 people, the chance of lynching mafia is 7 out of 25.

[xtable=skin1]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td}Amount of Players{/td}
{td}Amount of non-town[Mafia + Third party]{/td}
{td}Amount of town{/td}
{td}Chance a non-town gets lynched{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}25{/td}
{td}13{/td}
{td}12{/td}
{td}52%{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}25{/td}
{td}12{/td}
{td}13{/td}
{td}48%{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}25{/td}
{td}11{/td}
{td}14{/td}
{td}44%{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}25{/td}
{td}10{/td}
{td}15{/td}
{td}40%{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}25{/td}
{td}9{/td}
{td}16{/td}
{td}36%{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}25{/td}
{td}8{/td}
{td}17{/td}
{td}32%{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]
This being Mafia + Third party. Since we wanna lynch those probabily too right? The one I think is most likely to be happening is 10 non-town[with 6 Mafia and 4 Third Party]. Which makes for 40% chance we lynch a non-towner right now. But then again its 60% we lynch a Towny =S

Gonna read other stuff now. But here is the math! =D
Thank you, Notty, I knew the math was wrong, but I didn't have the time to correct it ^-^
 

Nottykitten

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Alright, what are the questions im supposed to answer? -_-
Who do you think has the nicest mask right now?
Are you town-sided?
What do you think is the best way for a player to help the town?
Do you have a plan/strategy for catching scum laid out?


You don't have to answer the first two if you don't want to since they are not neccesairy. But whynot? x)
 

std1997

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This question is not more of having people reveal their plan. It's just a clearly visible attempt to make scum slip up. The chance is small. But it MIGHT succeed. We need to take all the chances we have to try and get scum slip-up.

If You're pro-town you shouldn't have much trouble answering this question :3
Scum might slip-up or make vague or hesitant answers :3

Don't take it too serious
I have no problem answering any question. I just found it a bit odd that you asked multiple questions on what we as the town plan to do in figuring out who's mafia.
 

Enderfive

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Greetings, whoever you are, reading my diary. These may be my final hours in this world, so I will write my accounts of what has happened here during the days of the Masquerade. I will start from the beginning, for you to be able to better understand what has happened.

It started on the first day of the Masquerade. Even though spirits were high, there were whispers on the streets. Whispers of evil, of a powerful and real threat to the citizens. Machiavelli. No one actually believed that Machiavelli, an agent of some unknown enemy of Venice, would strike during the Masquerade. Still, people love to gossip and because of that, the crowded streets were filled with rumours.

I arrived in the town on the Sunday before the Masquerade. As a man from a relatively wealthy family, yet with a humble personality, I decided I would not burden the maids of fancy guestshouses or those of my friends's in town. Because of this, I decided that a logical course of action would be to rent a room for the week in a local inn of some sorts. I've always been curious of how things work and that curiousity extends everywhere, even to the lowest pits of mankind. I decided that I would not spend the week in the gutter, though, and managed to locate a relatively polite looking inn.

A low, yet friendly voice greeted me when I pushed the door open and set my foot in the house which would be my home for the duration of the Masquerade.

"Welcome, stranger. What can I get you?"

The voice belonged to the man behind the bartable. A strong man judging by the first impression, he could've beaten me in a fight.

"I'm looking for accomodation, if that is possible."

"Yes, certainly. You are a lucky man, we only have 2 rooms available at the moment. The Masquerade brings visitors from far away. I suppose you are here for this occasion as well?"

"I am indeed. Which rooms do you have available?"

"2 rooms on the second floor. I can show you to them, if you'd like."

"Please do."

The man took a step towards the staircase, before turning around for a moment and taking a look straight into my eyes.

"How should I call you, signore?"

"I would prefer to remain unnamed. Although, a name to associate with a face can never hurt. You may call me Lorenzo if you will."

"Very well, signor Lorenzo. This way."

The man led me up the stairs to the second floor. He showed me two identical rooms which were still available. I picked the one on the right. As he stepped out the door, I started unpacking my belongings from the small bag I carried with me. It was late at this point, and I was hungry and thirsty from my travels to reach the city in time, so after setting everything in place, I walked down the stairs and ordered a fine dinner. I noticed some more people in the inn, but since they did not make contact with me, I decided against it myself.

I plan to post one of these for every day I'm alive, and then end it when I die or the game ends. With @GmK's permission, if he grants it to me, I intend to write an ending story which he will post along with the message of my death, if that is possible.
 

Ltin

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Who do you think has the nicest mask right now?

The guy who had music notes on it....
Are you town-sided?

Yes? Stupid question.
What do you think is the best way for a player to help the town?
Be active, and point out discrepancies in posts and such, and use common sense. Do Not Lie About Your Role. Please.
Do you have a plan/strategy for catching scum laid out?

No, alas, I do not.
 

Nottykitten

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Do you have a plan/strategy for catching scum laid out?
Nope, I usually just try an idea when I see an opportunity. Like last game with the claiming thing. I saw an opportunity to make the mafia have lots of trouble and give the town more chance, and it worked[sort of but then Raxo got lynched and ohgod]

Besides getting random ideas at moments, I usually just question people about suspicious things and see their reaction. Like what I am gonna do right now!

It seems that lynching on the first day seems to increase the mafia's chances of winning considering we usually hit a townie/third-party so for now until something happens. I'll be remaining with my plan of No Lynch.
So you're saying that we shouldn't lynch because we could possibly hit a Third-Party?
 

Ltin

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The man known only as Ltin was a mysterious man, nobody ever saw his face or knew his name. All they know is he made a fortune off his fleet of fishing ships.

He very quickly spent a few minutes outside finishing up decorating, than went to the docks to meet his cousin, coming into the city from France. But he was dismayed when a courier came to him with a letter from his cousin, saying his ship was delayed and wasnt due to arrive for nearly a week.
 

Fiestaguy

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Do you have a plan/strategy for catching scum laid out? Nope. I make plans on the fly, and I only try to execute them if I have something to go off of.
This question is not more of having people reveal their plan. It's just a clearly visible attempt to make scum slip up. The chance is small. But it MIGHT succeed. We need to take all the chances we have to try and get scum slip-up.
If You're pro-town you shouldn't have much trouble answering this question :3
Scum might slip-up or make vague or hesitant answers :3
Click to expand...
Well if you say that, then doesn't that sort of ruin the original intention of the plan ?
Sadly. Timdood3 asked too many questions x3 Oh well. There's still a small chance
 

myusername22

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Who do you think has the nicest mask right now? I thought sploorkys mask was the most interesting
Are you town-sided? I was actually hoping for an exciting role this time but sadly yes I am.
What do you think is the best way for a player to help the town? the biggest thing a player can do is stay active and share there suspicions as the game is running. The easiest place for mafia to hide is in the silence.
Do you have a plan/strategy/TRAP for catching scum laid out? no, generally I just develop theories as the game goes on and try to run with those ideas. I don't usually try to lay traps this early on.
 

Fiestaguy

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I sit in the in inn slowly sipping some expensive wine as I watch the new man, "Lorenzo" I believe he's called eating. I simply look around slightly before taking another sip of mu wine. I order a nice big cow steak and a glass of milk and start eating . Sometimes glancimg over at the other people shortly. "It's gonna be a long shift..." I say.
 

myusername22

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currently as it stands on the lynch/no lynch thing I'm also going to say it's unrealistic for us to get a lynch unless we pick someone completely at random and try to lynch them now. I don't think it's a good idea for us to lynch recklessly even though i'd rather see a lynch than not in most cases the current deadline barely gives us enough time to find someone suspicious. my suggestion is we just talk and if we find someone suspicious we can try to lynch them, though we should acknowledge the fact the most probable outcome is that the deadline will run out before then and we should be okay with that.
 

digi

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I'm not sure if you understand how chance works. It's m/n, where m is the number of possibilities you want to know the chance of happening and n is the number of all possibilities.

So... the table should look like this:


[xtable=skin1]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td}Mafia{/td}
{td}Town{/td}
{td}Chance of lynching mafia{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}7{/td}
{td}18{/td}
{td}39%{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}6{/td}
{td}19{/td}
{td}31.6%{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}5{/td}
{td}20{/td}
{td}25%{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}4{/td}
{td}21{/td}
{td}19%{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}3{/td}
{td}22{/td}
{td}13,6%{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]
Bear in mind, this is when lynching completely blind.
How do you guys come up with these figures? Is it legitimate math? Probability? Theory? It seems like guess work and numbers like this make me skeptical.
 

std1997

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Do you have a plan/strategy for catching scum laid out?
Nope, I usually just try an idea when I see an opportunity. Like last game with the claiming thing. I saw an opportunity to make the mafia have lots of trouble and give the town more chance, and it worked[sort of but then Raxo got lynched and ohgod]

Besides getting random ideas at moments, I usually just question people about suspicious things and see their reaction. Like what I am gonna do right now!


So you're saying that we shouldn't lynch because we could possibly hit a Third-Party?
I'm saying we shouldn't lynch cause it'd help the Mafia. I also said we have a tendency (from what I've seen from previous games) to hit third-party/townies when we lynch first day so I will be remaining with my plan of a No Lynch.
 

JKangaroo

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Mercutio de Citci

The "Eyes of the Raven" has been in my family for generations, and now it shall take flight once more in this Masquerade. Though these old bones of mine seek release, it would be shameful to lock oneself up from such splendor an occassion. What is that?... It has begun! The night is young, and too am I this night.
It is time or Mercutio to once again take to the stage...

Who do you think has the nicest mask right now? My favourite is @UltimateBudgie, I like the simplicitly yet subtle designs on it.
Are you town-sided? Why would anyone say anything but yes to this question?
What do you think is the best way for a player to help the town? Well, for the most part, everything has already been said in regard to this: Most Mafia games tend to slow down and start to loose interest once everyone stops talking and/or remains quiet/at a stalemate, and so we will ALWAYS need at least some line of discussion or another to continue on. Because of this, everyone should continue to participate, even if its just small / short sentences, even if your participation causes others to become suspicious of you, you have to push through it to make yourself heard (especially if you are indeed town). Opinions matter.
(Also don't bandwagon)
Do you have a plan/strategy/TRAP for catching scum laid out? No, I never have a "plan" really going into any Mafia game. For the most part I feel it ruins and takes away from interesting debate, and more often than not leads to confusion (though that may not necessarily be true); I distinctively recall in a previously hosted season where there was confusion of... the doctor? between Notty and Defiant I believe (can't find the specific instance atm).

I simply follow the game closely, and try to push on anything I find suspicious or unhelpful, which I feel is a more honest and better approach then trying to set up some "trap." Besides, a good player probably wouldn't fall into said trap anyways (and I feel it kind of biases you as you "think" someone fell into said trap when really you just want to believe they did)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------​
Now besides the questions... we should probably adress the idea of "lynching" today.
Now, for the most part, I have always held steadfast to keeping a "No Lynch" policy on Day 1's (Day 0 in this case) when virtually nothing has happened. More often than not its simply a shot in the dark, and dooesn't help anyone besides Mafia in giving them 1 less townsperson to worry / theorize about.

...However, this game is slightly different from any previous Mafia games I have played prior to this:
Simply, we have no idea how many Mafia, how many town, and we have no idea on what roles currently exist at all in the game currently.
Do we have a Venetian-styled Doctor? Detective? Serial Killer?, we really couldn't say. In fact, there might not even be any of these roles due to all roles being hidden behind our masks. An in fact, it'll stay that way for the whole game (I'm not sure we will even get role-announcements when a person dies @GmK)

Because of this peculiar situation, I feel it is more useful to actually lynch instead of simply waiting and twidling our thumbs. We won't get anywhere without taking a chance, and I believe this game will require us to take a lot of chances in order to really make any headway.

I don't doubt that a majority will probably decide no-lynch will be the better of the two; even moreso as even if you should want a lynch tonight, there is no information on anyone, and really you can't make an educated guess / hunch to really lynch anyone off (I'm also having a problem with that). But even so, I feel we should at least think about the possibilities presented to us. If we do get information on deaths at the end/start of a day, I wouldn't mind no-lynching tonight, but I still think we should keep the possibility of lynching open.
 

JKangaroo

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Also guys, I would say that, at least according to a statement by GmK in the Rule/Sign-up thread:
This is a closed setup game (!!!) That means you will not know which roles exist, and how many of each. I would say that 80% of roles are common and normal,
And due to there being only 25 of us (+1 as a replacement in Jeercrul), I would say this rough 80% would lead us to believe there is a more-then likely 4-5 Mafia, or 4-6 players that are a mix of some Machiavellies(Mafia) and third-party.

So roughly 20% of a chance that one of us were apart of this group of players is a reasonable possibility.
This isn't that bad in terms of probability imo.
 

Timdood3

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And due to there being only 25 of us (+1 as a replacement in Jeercrul), I would say this rough 80% would lead us to believe there is a more-then likely 4-5 Mafia, or 4-6 players that are a mix of some Machiavellies(Mafia) and third-party.
I thank that Machiavelli is just a term for the godfather. Others would just be tpyical mafia.
 

Alisha

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Do you have a plan/strategy/TRAP for catching scum laid out?
Mm, I'm the opposite of JKangaroo. I tend to think up of a lot of plans, simply because it's fun to analyze things. Admittedly I've lost sleep because of it a couple times. Generally none of my plans come to fruition because the game constantly evolves, which is a lot of fun to take part of. However, if I am able to execute a plan, it generally goes off reasonably well.

For the current game, I admit that I've made plans already. I'm sure none of them will be required and that I'm totally overthinking everything, but if something does happen in the right way, I'll be ready to catch the mafia.
 

JKangaroo

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I thank that Machiavelli is just a term for the godfather. Others would just be tpyical mafia.
I know, but it could also be a family name, so the Mafia are in a sense like a Venetian family/noble house/whatnot.

But that's just speculation. Just used the term from GmK's earlier post for themeing purposes. ^-^
 

GmK

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(I'm not sure we will even get role-announcements when a person dies @GmK)​
It is planned that when someone dies their name / gender and a link to the role that inspired their character (from one of the Mafia Wikis) will be posted. This is also the reason I asked for people that are experienced, since they will know what "Sarah Jessica Parker, AltNight 1-Shot Hidden Flippflapp" means ;)
Also guys, I would say that, at least according to a statement by GmK in the Rule/Sign-up thread:
Just to clarify: By saying "80% are normal and common" I am basing that on all the roles that are available on e.g. Mafiascum, Epicmafia, SC2 Mafia. They might themselves still be rather unique, but can be generally found in a list of mafia roles. 20% are made up roles you would generally not find anywhere. These percentages are rough estimates and do not reflect the actual amounts.

---

Clarification

Since some people are confused by the deadline for Day 0: I wanted to give everyone a chance to play. Usually I prefer a Night-Start, but then you always have someone sad that they didn't have a single chance to play at all. This is why we have a Day 0 with deadline: Everybody has a chance to play a little, even maybe a lynch thrown in, and nobody will be say they got left out if they are killed Night 1.


---

The above info has been posted in the News / Update post on page 1 as well.
 

Nottykitten

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I'm saying we shouldn't lynch cause it'd help the Mafia. I also said we have a tendency (from what I've seen from previous games) to hit third-party/townies when we lynch first day so I will be remaining with my plan of a No Lynch.
Ofcourse lynching a Third-party helps the mafia since we didn't lynch one of them, but the town needs to lynch most Third-Parties to win. And therefor lynching a Third-Party is nothing bad at all. It's actually quite good for as as Third parties can be dangerous. So you saying that we shouldn't lynch because we could hit a Third Party is pretty suspicious.

How do you guys come up with these figures? Is it legitimate math? Probability? Theory? It seems like guess work and numbers like this make me skeptical.
Its math yeah. If there are 10 non-towns, the chance of us lynching one of them is 10/25 = 40%. Ofcourse we don't know how many non-towns there are, thats why we made a range between 8 and 13 non-town since it's most likely between those numbers. So the chance of lynching a non town varies between 32% and 52%.
 
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