The Red Scare [Game Over]

[Infected_alien8_]

And I'm convinced that this is what's happening right now unless ltin tells me there's been a mix up

 

[Infected_alien8_]

She's already convinced that fog is maf (see: yesterday) so made up a story to get us to lynch fog to make it seem like she was telling the truth about ooglie being the cult leader so that the vigilante kills the cult leader and she wins the game

And by this I mean that when foggy flips maf (like she hopes), her story about her seeing oog trying to convert foggy and her seeing foggy as mafia will be proven true, therefor oog will be killed

And the reason she wasn't just honest was because just saying "oog is cult leader" wouldn't prove anything

 

[Nottykitten]

And by this I mean that when foggy flips maf (like she hopes), her story about her seeing oog trying to convert foggy and her seeing foggy as mafia will be proven true, therefor oog will be killed

And the reason she wasn't just honest was because just saying "oog is cult leader" wouldn't prove anything

Thats two people talking to themselves right now. The vig doesn't have to kill Oog when Foggy flips maf, I just really hope that they do so that there will be less infighting between all of us.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I just really hope that they do so that there will be less infighting between all of us.

And you will have more chance at winning the game!

 

[Nottykitten]

And you will have more chance at winning the game!

I kinda need it when I'm already behind 1 person. Atleast I have the comfort that most people(including me) think you're town which makes you a prime Mafia target for tonight <3

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Anyway from my perspective foggy is not proven mafia

SO ON WITH MY SUSPICIONS AND STUFF

I'm naturally suspicious of Ender for defending Aqua, especially when he said:

I never said you're voting him, but the fact you suddenly announce him as suspicious when the game changed to a point where as a Mafia member you'd benefit from being able to quickly switch to TWG, and suddenly you're setting up the situation that you've always been suspicious of TWG so if you do happen to switch to him to ensure your surival, don't worry guys it's no suspicious, Aqua was suspecting him all along!!! The reason I think you did this and aren't being truthful about being suspicious of him all along is because never did you say than you had any suspicions on TWG before, and as a townie, you have no reason to not out your suspicion. If you were townie, I imagine that either you would have outed your suspicion on TWG before, or if you never were suspicious of him, you'd at least be honest about your read of TWG in case you do die today and people look back and see what you thought of him and that influences the game tomorrow.


And he has stuck with his suspicion on me, but he's also outed one on TWG too, which makes me suspicious because of the above.

you misunderstand, what i meant was that it would've been easier for him to stick to just you as to avoid pulling attention on himself

Because to me that just didn't make any sense (because of what I said above) and felt like a desperate attempt at defending Aqua, and that combined with my point before about how aqua was basically acting a bit buddy-buddy with Ender kinda makes me suspicious, but Ender is apparently making a magical post which explains this so I'll wait for that.

I'm also a bit suspicious of Iggish because he's talked about narrowing down the PR twice now, and if we're assuming he's mafia, the first time he did it wasn't actually him genuinly doing it, which is probably/possibly why he forgot he got told off for it and did it again today but that's just a conspiracy theory. But his voting patterns have been a bit odd, as others pointed out, and also he went for TWG over aqua when in my eyes aqua had done more scummy things, especially at the end of the day, so naturally I'm a bit suspicious of anyone who voted TWG over aqua (but obviously mafia could have bussed aqua too just like mulb did and I understand the suspicion on TWG, and townies could very well have voted him just like caff did)

Whilst Aqua went after TWG at the end of yesterday, that doesn't prove TWG to be innocent in my opinion, since Aqua would have easily tried to either bus his partner to survive, or throw shade on them so they look innocent when aqua flips mafia, and the points about TWG being suspicious do still stand (like when he said he was happy to lynch me just so he could prove I was innocent so we could lynch iggish, and he's made some statements that come with a certain certainty (ha) to them, like how aqua was for sure mafia. Some people also think his points against me had too much certainty but honestly I disagree because the points on me were trash and made no sense.

I still have a bit of suspicion on HK from my vibes, and also his weird defence of iggish a moment ago kind of stuck out to me, and also he voted TWG over Aqua and trusted aqua despite all the many many scummy things he did, but again, townies could have preffered a TWG lynch over aqua just like caff did so this isn't really much of a point against him.

Oak is also slightly suspicious to me for 1) voting me for no reason when there was a bandwagon starting and 2) voting TWG over aqua (he said it was because of Ender's essay - Oak63 which essay?

I'm also still suspicious of foggy for pushing on me for 0 reason and have a feeling that him and aqua tried to push for an easy inf lynch together.

Meanwhile Samlen is hopefully going to get a replacement but my gut told me he was mafia at the start of the game, and my gut told me notty was cult so dundundun!

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I'm also a bit suspicious of Iggish because he's talked about narrowing down the PR twice now, and if we're assuming he's mafia, the first time he did it wasn't actually him genuinly doing it

(because he did it to aqua whom he'd know were not in fact the vigilante, if we assume igg is mafia)

 

[Iggish]

vote Iggish

Is this just some bs strategy to take attention away from the fact that you the one buddying up to aqua in day 1?

aha, was wondering when someone would bring up that argument

if you want a substantial answer to that, you'll have to give me more time to formulate an answer, but right now i have every reason to believe that aqua was deliberately trying to make it look like we were teaming so i'd be easier to lynch during the day

What? This sounds kinda far fetched. Also, another thing you did on day 1 was kill aqua to again bring the suspicion off you that you and aqua were teaming. This could be because you knew that Aqua was mafia (because you yourself may be mafia) and was going to be lynched and so you did not want to associate yourself with Aqua, consequently killing them off

yeah okay nobody's going to change their vote, might as well make it official now so we can get on with the game

unvote
vote Aqua

Also with only less then one hour left until the deadline, why would you vote Aqua unless it would benefit you somehow? Makign the day 40 minutes or so shorter us a pretty shitty excuse.

and could you give me a reason for your vote against me.

what happens if i don't?

I mean, you'd look scummy by not being able to justify a vote at all. Idk if you just said that to shitpost but please give me your reasons.

 

[Nottykitten]

Actually looking back, it is indeed weird that Mulb would vote for Aqua at a stage where Weak could of easely have gotten his vote without gaining any suspicion.

The more I think about it, Mul, Foggy and Aqua the more it seems like we were voting between two Mafia members yesterday. So yeah my suspicion for the fourth Mafia member definately goes out to Weak right now.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Also with only less then one hour left until the deadline, why would you vote Aqua unless it would benefit you somehow? Makign the day 40 minutes or so shorter us a pretty shitty excuse.

(oh yeah this is also something I thought - it seemed a bit odd that Ender chose to switch to aqua just to save us like an hour or something. If he was so convinced TWG was mafia, it seems odd to me that he'd not wait for the possibility of someone changing their mind, and I can't help but think that he did that so that people would think "if he were mafia buddies with aqua he'd wait and see if someone changed their mind". Plus saving us like an hour didn't really do much)

 

[Unusual_Dood]

Also with only less then one hour left until the deadline, why would you vote Aqua unless it would benefit you somehow? Makign the day 40 minutes or so shorter us a pretty shitty excuse.

Honestly, it isn't. I think most people were curious if Aqua was mafia after all, and with so much action, waiting 2 hours where about nothing happened was a pain, at least for me. If Aqua flipped non-town, it would be very suspicious. However, I do however find it odd that Ender was willing to risk that.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Oak is also slightly suspicious to me for 1) voting me for no reason when there was a bandwagon starting and 2) voting TWG over aqua (he said it was because of Ender's essay - Oak63 which essay?

 

[Infected_alien8_]

(fixed, idk why I said slightly, but I feel like my attention is going elsewhere and he's slipping under my radar which I do not like. Oak63)

 

[Unusual_Dood]

I think he meant this

Before I begin, the beginning of the post is more or less copy-pasted from the unfinished draft that I accidentally posted. Also, there are loads of occasions where I could've quoted, but chose not to, because I'm on mobile right now and the time I've spent on this post would've been an hour longer.

I'm definitely townreading Caff right now. Ooglie seems to be acting like I'd expect him to as a townie as well.

I have no opinion whatsoever about Oak, Samlen and Aqua. Samlen and Oak because they haven't been active at all, Aqua because he acts like a moron, which is what he always does, regardless of allegiance. Because of that, I don't think one way or the other about them, and I'll have to see more of them to come to any conclusion regarding them.

Now that we've got those five out of the way, things get interesting. Regarding HK, Foggy and Iggish, I'm having a hard time understanding their points sometimes, and at other times I can definitely agree with some others about them not making any sense at all. However, I'm unsure if this is because they're new to the game, can't express themselves very well or if it's because they're mafia. In my experience, the people that are barely making any sense, but are aggressive as players, aren't always mafia, especially when they're newer players. Due to that, I'd withhold judgement on them right now and see how they play in the following days.

HOWEVER. All three of them jumped pretty quickly on Inf after the day start. It was almost peculiar to read back and see how they (and Aqua, but behaviour like that is par for the course for him, as I already said) attacked Inf almost immediately after day start, bringing the whole Hipman kill thing as their argument. I believe I explained my thoughts on the matter, but to reiterate, if I was Inf, I'd have stayed the fuck away from Hip, because the connection would've been too obvious and the easiest thing for any mafia to do in regards to the nightkills is to try and go for the ones that don't have any obvious grievances against them. I'll touch on the Hip nightkill later on when I share my thoughts on Inf, but as far as I'm concerned, the most likely thing that could've happened with the nightkill is that it was the mafia kill, which makes Inf less likely to be the culprit in my opinion. It definitely feels like the three of them are biased against Inf, but whether that is because they are mafia buddies that wanted to take Inf out for being an active townie or because they feel more inclined to attack him based on previous acquaintance, I'm not sure.

Anyway, moving on to Mulb. Most of what I feel about him I've already said. Don't really have anything definitive against him, but most of what he's said over the course of the game (which isn't a lot, honestly), feels exactly like it came from a not-so-experienced mafioso who's trying to make it look like they're useful while still contributing only the bare minimum. Because of that, Mulb is a certain FoS for me.

And this is where things turn into a full-blown, Flat Earth-tier, Illuminati levels of shady conspiracy theory. It's very hard to find anything incriminating between TWG, Unu, Notty and Inf, since they've all done a great job at deflecting suspicions and generally making themselves look sane, as opposed to Iggish, Foggy and HK (no offence). The thing that really got my attention was not how they acted when it came to suspicions on themselves, the thing that really got my attention was how they banded together and defended Inf after he started getting some heat. Notty responded to the initial push on Inf right after day start, going with a nice mocking tone against the push and throwing suspicion on Foggy instead. Then they all (with the exception of Inf) sort of calmed down, with Notty and TWG not making any posts at all and Unu just sort of keeping it in our minds that he has a bigger post coming up. There was one single post from Notty between her initial reaction to the Inf push and the big post that Unu made on page 17, but seeing how that was just her telling Inf to get help after he had ideas after eating sausages (or something like that), I didn't really count that as game-related.

Then Unu came with his big post, essentially making points in defense of Inf and throwing suspicion in Iggish's way. As I noted before, Iggish was one of the three people that were pushing Inf at that time. One last thing Unu did was to state he was townreading Notty. And right after that, Inf mentioned in his response how he considered Unu a strong player due to that post, implying he supported his points. TWG then made a post in support of Unu's points against Iggish.

Call me crazy, but I'm starting to see some real connections here.

And then I put my vote on Inf and things got so confusing I'm only now starting to understand what some people were saying.

Unu responded to my post, reinforcing his suspicion on Iggish, but adding me to that list as well. The reasons for suspecting me were flimsy at best, if I'm being honest and looking back it kind of feels like he was first and foremost wanting to throw suspicion on me after I voted Inf and only thought of the reasons after. Next substantial post from the trio of Notty, Unu and TWG came from the latter, and what do you know, the suspects were me, Aqua, HK, Foggy and Iggish, in other words, all the people that were pushing Inf. Meanwhile, TWG also expressed the opinion that Inf was innocent. One outlier from his post was him being suspicious of Unu, but that wasn't expressed as firmly as the other suspicions, so it's entirely possible in my opinion that this was there just for show.

Notty then posted with a vote on Aqua, Unu still kept defending Inf and throwing shade on me, although after my megapost that answered all of his grievances, he didn't really have much ammo left. Notty made a few short posts essentially ridiculing the people voting Inf and a few longer posts arguing against Foggy, before getting strangely hung up on wording issues for a bit. The argument with Foggy itself was fine, actually, but the wording thing really felt like Notty wanted to take every possible reason, no matter how small, to defend Inf and put suspicion on those pushing him. After the idea of compromising to vote TWG popped up, Notty slightly defended TWG, saying she'd rather lynch Aqua than TWG, and then saying the same about Foggy and TWG in a follow-up.

There may be more examples of this whole #defendinf2k17 phenomenon that I missed, and I'm not saying it's confined to these four. And the beauty of it all is that a lot of the reasons for voting Inf that cropped up were fairly weak. Valid, perhaps, but weak nonetheless, so it's not unthinkable for a townie to defend Inf. Caff, for example, who I'm townreading, has also been defending him. The thing that really made Notty, TWG and Unu stand out for me was the way they really started posting things only after Inf started getting heat, and the way that defending Inf is pretty much all they've done all day, with other matters getting much less attention. But again, this can be simply because that's what most of the day has been focused on, which is why it's such a good play from them, if they do turn out to be mafia. What really puts them above suspicious for me to the status as a potential team is the way they've been bouncing their arguments off each other, attacking all the same people and reinforcing each other at the same time. It's a bold strategy for a mafia to take and I'm sure their response is going to (or maybe not, since I'm already mentioning this before they have a chance to bring it up themselves) point out the fact that it would be dumb or dangerous for mafiosi to be collaborating and teaming so brazenly, but that's part of the reason why it would actually be a smart strategy for a mafia team to utilise, not to mention what I've already mentioned about defending Inf being possible for townies as well.

Do note that all of this suggests that they're a team, and since there's only one team with more than two members that all know each other, then that's the team I'm assuming it is, namely, the mafia. If one of them flips innocent, then the likelihood of being mafia goes down for all of the remaining members of this hypothetical team. Quick note about Iggish, Foggy and HK at this point, since the argument could be made that they're teaming too, against Inf: well, not really. They've been just as eager to throw suspicion on other people and each other, whereas between Notty, Inf, TWG and Unu, I've mostly only noticed them placing suspicion on the people that attacked Inf.

As for Inf himself, there are a couple of other little things that make me raise eyebrows in addition to the whole teaming with Notty, TWG and Unu bit. First, I do still feel just a tiny bit off about his playstyle, second, the way he's constantly been placing omgus foses and votes suggests that he's biased against those who put suspicion on him, although whether that is because he's simply frustrated or because he's scum, is anyone's guess. While I don't think it too likely that he would've killed Hip as a mafioso, then I did notice how he was relatively certain that it wasn't the mafia who killed Hip at all, and instead the Vig might have killed him. Considering how a mafia kill would be a lot more likely, I can't help but wonder if he knows more about this than we do and was able to make a more educated guess. And yes, it is also possible that Inf is a mafia and did kill Hip, purely so he could claim it as too obvious and thus make himself look more innocent, since, honestly, the whole framing thing was the first thing on his mind while I didn't really think of it before he mentioned it on the thread, which might suggest a defense prepared ahead of the night results, but that's getting a bit complicated and I've always figured that the simplest explanation is usually the true one.

In conclusion, I'm willing to go with the TWG lynch for now seeing how I find him suspicious anyway, but I'm definitely FoSing Mulb, Notty, Unu and Inf right noe as well. If TWG or any of the other three should flip town, I'll be less inclined to believe the rest are mafia, if any of them flips maf, I'll be more inclined.

For now, though:
vote TWG

 

[Iggish]

Honestly, it isn't. I think most people were curious if Aqua was mafia after all, and with so much action, waiting 2 hours where about nothing happened was a pain, at least for me. If Aqua flipped non-town, it would be very suspicious. However, I do however find it odd that Ender was willing to risk that.

If what you're saying it right, then the reason he'd be willing to risk it is that it'd benefit him. If he is mafia, he knew that he had to distance himself from aqua. Even if he's town and he suspected of aqua of being mafia, he'd vote for the same reason.
As inf said, if ender was so sure, he could've tried to wait but instead, tried to take the suspicion that he knew would come the next day off him.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Meanwhile I realize I'm basically suspicious of everyone apart from unusual_dood (and notty and oog because they seem to be cultists)

 

[Iggish]

Meanwhile I realize I'm basically suspicious of everyone apart from unusual_dood (and notty and oog because they seem to be cultists)

Mhm, after day one, the only person who I town read was caff and even then I was a teeny bit suspicious.

 

[Iggish]

Ohi Mulb, I see you're viewing this thread rn

 

[Infected_alien8_]

So igg why'd you talk about the vigilante again?

 

[Unusual_Dood]

I think Caffe was killed because most people town-read her. Even if they didn't they would have voted for someone else.

 

[Enderfive]

unless Ender/Aqua set him up to this, since they were the ones to point out the mistake Iggish made, but that is too much of a conspiracy theory to actually be possible I think :/

i'm confused as to what this "strat" would be supposed to accomplish

as for me making a magic post that explains away all your suspicions, lol, no, i'm not that good

i guess i can try and explain why i think aqua was trying to set me up in case he died, but that would take another long post and i won't deliver that today, so if you want that, wait until tomorrow or so

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Also Ender are you notty's communist person?

 

[Infected_alien8_]

wait would that make sense idk i'm tired

 

[Enderfive]

I think they're Mafia since they had their vote on Weak when the day ended

Also Ender are you notty's communist person?

darn that's the second time i've been found out during this game

i really suck at this game

 

[Infected_alien8_]

tbh i don't think notty has a communist buddy