Trouble in the West: Pirates vs Cowboys [Finished]
- Thread starter Prizyms
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I can't say I'm 100% certain about digi and storm, but I think it'd be best to keep an eye on em and start looking around a bit more, and of course ask some questions (We can bring them up later and decide what to do about them if we honestly can't find anything else today). One other thing we should do is make sure that everyone is staying semi-active and is saying something. I don't believe @JKangaroo hasn't even responded to today yet, and others have barely responded at all (I can understand being busy, but we do need to stay a little bit more active =P). We have discussed the more prominent suspicions of yesterday, but now we need to take some time and look back at the events of yesterday, and see what other information we can glean from it. Since yesterday felt so rushed (At least it felt rushed to me), there's possibly a larger chance that a Pirate slipped up yesterday, or made a poor decision that we can see today.
After looking back on yesterday myself, the first thing I can believe is that Storm and Swate were almost definitely working together in some way/were on the same team, and Swate attempted his 'claim' and of course looked to Storm to back him up. Since this was a last minute plan that likely hadn't been discussed before, Storm was confused and took it as a chance to get rid of Swate. If we believe Storm's claim about his role, then I believe he 'bussed' Swate since he hadn't chosen to make his win condition the same as Storm as of yet. The other option is that Storm was a pirate that chose to bus Swate to make him look less suspicious. For now, I'm leaning more towards that Storm is actually an alien-like role, and should be lynched if we can't find any better information on Pirates today.
This is what I have so far and I'll post again when I find something more worth posting about, or if I can think of descent questions to help keep people active.
After looking back on yesterday myself, the first thing I can believe is that Storm and Swate were almost definitely working together in some way/were on the same team, and Swate attempted his 'claim' and of course looked to Storm to back him up. Since this was a last minute plan that likely hadn't been discussed before, Storm was confused and took it as a chance to get rid of Swate. If we believe Storm's claim about his role, then I believe he 'bussed' Swate since he hadn't chosen to make his win condition the same as Storm as of yet. The other option is that Storm was a pirate that chose to bus Swate to make him look less suspicious. For now, I'm leaning more towards that Storm is actually an alien-like role, and should be lynched if we can't find any better information on Pirates today.
This is what I have so far and I'll post again when I find something more worth posting about, or if I can think of descent questions to help keep people active.
JKangaroo
Your Local, Neighborhood Marsupial
Apologies, my post must not have gone through yesterday, so I'll try to rewrite it now/add to it/whatever.
I wish I had checked the forums the previous (in-game) day before it basically came to a lynch in basically 24-hours, as I would have tried to say something, which I will say now.
At the moment, I... feel I'm probably the only player who feels Swate is innocent, or at least, innocent in some regard (at the moment, I'm not sure what the regard is entirely, I just feel he is innocent in some respect). Up until the 4-jailer, 3 nights, statement, the accusations against Swate were basically rehashing arguments, which I'm still in disagreement with from previous days, but even with the jailer claim there were still many aspects I believed in Swate's statements that led me to believe that parts of his claim were genuine, or were at least apart of his role.
Although I thought at first he was lying at first after reading the 4-jailer targets, 3 nights facet, I came to believe it to be possibly true, but thats just me.
However, in the end, I do believe Swate was the wrong decision and a bit rash, and here is my reason why.
Ooglie is not an Insane cop, at least, I believe he is not, and so, his investigations should not come up as the "opposite" of what their alignments actually are.
I believe the belief that he was "insane" was rushed and not well thought out and basically jumped on as the belief, sadly, mainly started out by Ooglie himself who pondered the same idea in his reveal post.
However, there is a key component of Ooglie's post that was thrown under the rug and left unnoticed by the masses which clearly contradicts this belief, I show you, Exhibit A!:
I would like to direct everyone's attentions to the bolded remarks.
"Delayed" certainly doesn't sound like being roleblocked to me. Now initially this was believed that the tome he received had delayed his cop investigation, however he states here as well that he DID NOT receive it, which means that the cursed tome most likely does not have these delaying properties (or at least, has the chance that it doesn't).
Alongside the delay, he received his report the day later, as well as having ANOTHER delayed report.
Suspicious, no? All of these things have a single thing in common:
THEY ARE THE EXACT SAME ASPECTS AS A SINGLE COP ROLE: The Lazy Cop
Here is a link to the information regarding what a 'lazy cop' does: http://wiki.epicmafia.com/index.php?title=Lazy_Cop
Now I know someone will probably say we shouldn't believe purely in what a wiki says... and I would agree, however so far many roles seem to be vanilla roles already in place from elsewhere, like the cop, arsonist, etc, and so I have a bigger belief that this may in fact be true. 2 investigations only for a cop instead of the normal amount (an investigation per day, which is the same even for "special" cops like the insane or paranoid ones)? Certainly seems strange imo.
And heh, I certainly feel its more likely than a Insane Cop. Plus, I feel a Lazy Sheriff + Normal Sheriff would probably fit the theme of "Wild West" more than a Insane Sheriff, but that's just me.
Because of this idea that Ooglie was not in fact, Insane, but rather, Lazy, and thus, all of his investigations up to this point were correct.
With this in mind, I'm choosing to lynch digitalmez today and believing in Ooglie's vote yesterday.
I feel digi is pulling something similar to Sploorky last game where we will basically pass over them so they can live longer appearing as a non-threat to town when they in fact, are.
Although I've trusted digi up until now, I believe more strongly in this evidence and feel it is reasonable enough to vote digi.
Now my opinion on the Oak ordeal, and how we saw Ooglie's role (Sheriff Steve) after he died, I personally believe that Oak's role was more of a one-trick pony, essentially, it hides a single role, and that's it. Of course, there is nothing backing this belief up besides Ooglie having his role being revealed, but its a possible idea that I feel may be the actual part of his role. I feel like Prizyms wouldn't exactly leave us in the dark like that, especially since it was hinted at the idea that we have no morticians to see dead players roles:
But take all of those story things with a grain of salt I guess.
If its this theory or not, I guess we'll find out with today's lynch(or tomorrow if we no lynch by why would you do that this far into the game?)
Now if it really is a one-trick pony role like I believe it might be, then I want to look at yesterday's lynch in a different light. With the knowledge that Boneyard Brian, Old_man_oak, was dead, and that deaths would now be anonymous, there is a very likely chance that the Mafia could push to get players who are innocent but already suspicious in the eyes of many players easily without consequence, as their role would never be known and thus, leaves a lot of room for speculation.
It's a stretch of an idea, but I feel there's enough room for it to be possible that I also extend my suspicion onto the likes of tim as a possible fellow in the Mafia.
We are down to 13 players, which means that the more innocents that die (and the faster they do), then the quicker it is for the Mafia to win. I remind us that unless my belief that Swate was in fact innocent is NOT true, then we have basically not touched ANY Mafia thus far, and seeing as that there are 20 players in this roundup, then there is, on rough estimate, at least 4-5 Mafia players still alive and kicking (this estimate gathered from previous Mafia games/general ratio for most games that I have seen, since its normally common for Mafia to be at least 1/4 or 1/5 of the populace in my experience.)
Because of how low we are, and the possibility of such a high amount of anti-town left, we need to be more critical with our choices and possibilities (like the cop idea that was passed over for the Insane cop idea which may have gotten an innocent Swate lynched).
I don't think there is anything else I really want to say besides that although I'm 90% certain in believing storm's role, especially by GmK's remark from Masquerade which preluded this game:
And although I know it might not be true, or storm could easily be lying and with the knowledge of this comment from last game, found it an easy role to claim / whatever, however Alien requires MANY turns to actually win with, unless of course they are lucky and all the right players die which lets all of the living players remain be probed, which is unlikely), I feel we can take some time and focus on killing Mafia first over third-party roles like the alien... unless there's more than one alien who can also probe which seems unlikely but is a dangerous proposition making killing the alien a bigger priority.
But until then, I feel more convinced of digitalmez as Mafia, which I feel is more suspicious, and we can lynch storm another time should we have no viable leads.
That is about all I have to say for now I believe.
I Vote digitalmez
JKangaroo
Your Local, Neighborhood Marsupial
And yes, before someone brings it up, I pondered the possibility that Swate might have been Godfather, should such a role exist this round.
All of my theories/beliefs at the moment stem from the belief that Swate was actually innocent (which in my mind, he currently is), and so whatever you make of the above will be of your own interpretation should you believe otherwise.
Alongside tim, I would also lend a hand of suspicion toward whoever Ooglie's inn-partner is, as it is possible, with this delay, that to hide from being found out, Ooglie was killed. Unlikely however, seeing as that would occur should the Mafia had decided to let Ooglie, a cop, live, which seems unlikely in its own respect. But its just an idea.
All of my theories/beliefs at the moment stem from the belief that Swate was actually innocent (which in my mind, he currently is), and so whatever you make of the above will be of your own interpretation should you believe otherwise.
Alongside tim, I would also lend a hand of suspicion toward whoever Ooglie's inn-partner is, as it is possible, with this delay, that to hide from being found out, Ooglie was killed. Unlikely however, seeing as that would occur should the Mafia had decided to let Ooglie, a cop, live, which seems unlikely in its own respect. But its just an idea.
JKangaroo
Your Local, Neighborhood Marsupial
Ah, didn't notice that.
Though I still think it might be possible seeing as he did not receive the cursed tomb the second time, unless it has a lasting effect, which would suck if it kept getting passed from person to person.
GmK
International Man Of Cake
Very great post JKang, and actually gosh I feel stupid for not thinking of a lazy cop, since that is amongst one of the most basic variations of the cop role. If following your theory and deeming him lazy, what could be is that he wasn't lazy immediately, but that the death of a certain role triggered it. This game seems to have some modificators that depend on who dies, and maybe the laziness was one of them. E.g. Jivvi dying made Ooglie lazy, since his cop partner was missing, or so (this is assuming he was indeed lazy at the end and not delayed due to the tome, which workings I am still very much unclear about).
Let me just clarify about the quote above: When I wrote that in an RP way at the end of masquerade, I had in my mind that this game is called "Cowboys and Aliens" due to the movie, and not "Cowboys and Pirates", that was the sole reason I wrote that Alien thing.
GmK
International Man Of Cake
Bolding by me.
@JKangaroo
This suggest heavily that Ooglie was delayed not due to the tome, but due to the death of Donut Dan. Also, since Ooglie seems to have handed off the tome, it should not still have delayed him (if the tome would be a delay inducing object).
This does really suggest Ooglie was a lazy cop - but we don't know if he was also insane, but that would be a bit much, no?
Enderfive
sarcasm incarnate
Good find.
I still believe digi is who she says she is. I am, however, beginning to doubt my own push against Swate, his actions were incredibly scummy in my opinion, but due to the investigation by Ooglie (which I overlooked in favour of Swate's own actions during the day) I'm beginning to doubt if it was the right call at this point. :L
Look--
It makes sense to lynch me. I can't dispute it anymore. If Ooglie outed anyone else I'd be the first to vote out that investigated person.
So, come the given deadline, if there are no other suspicions then feel free to lynch me, to give you clarity of mind.
It makes sense to lynch me. I can't dispute it anymore. If Ooglie outed anyone else I'd be the first to vote out that investigated person.
So, come the given deadline, if there are no other suspicions then feel free to lynch me, to give you clarity of mind.
My push on Swate was not even originally intended. My intent was to reacquaint myself with earlier happenings, and reevaluate them. However, when it turned out to be 25 pages of Swate being extremely suspicious, I simply didn't feel as if I could let it slide any longer. I would also just like to say that anyone pushing for a lynch when roles would not be revealed would be deemed suspicious, no matter the alignment of the target. I pushed on someone I felt was mafia, the timing just happened to be against me with the death of OMO hiding Swate's alignment. While it does make sense that a mafia would capitalize on the scummy looking mistakes of an innocent, this is not what has happened. I will simply refer you to my above statement how anyone trying to lynch anyone could be deemed suspicious for that reason. I mean, feel free to question me all you like, but I don't think it will get us anywhere in the end.
The arguments around Swate/Digi/Storm all seem to have at least semi-decent ideas to back them up, but consider this; out of these people, they are only 2/13 of the people left in the game. There is an extremely likely chance that around 2-3 Pirates (maybe more) are out hiding among the other 11, and hiding extremely well. From my point of view, Storm isn't someone we really need to focus on right now, his claim is fairly believable and we need to find Pirates to lynch. Digi does look suspicious, there's quite a bit of evidence to say that Digi's guilty, from cop investigations to the way Digi's acted. But even if we assume that both Digi and Swate are/were Pirates, there are probably 2-3 other pirates out among the other 11 of us, and we have no other leads right now. It's all good to follow on our only lead right now, but we need to find other leads soon, and I doubt we have any investigative roles anymore to give us those leads. To start off with those leads, we need to look back at people and go forward with some questions. I'll start off with this question, which some of you have pretty much already answered, but now We can try and make sure everyone answers it.
What do you think are the general roles/alignments of Swate/Storm/Digitalmez?
+Storm: I think this one I can believe in the most so far, I think he is what he says he is; basically an Alien out to probe us all.
+Digitalmez: Not completely sure, at first I thought that Ooglie was insane and proved digi's innocence and Swate's guilt, but in light of recent evidence being shown, it makes sense that Ooglie might have become a lazy cop after loosing his donuts (Donut Dan died), or the Cursed Tome had something to do with delaying his results. I'm looking around more today, but seems to be leaning towards guilty from my point of view.
+Swate: I felt that he acted suspicious throughout most of the game, and I figured Ooglie was insane since our other cop seemed sane (I actually don't remember now if we have proof that our other cop was sane?), which confirmed Swate's guilt. I look back at the events of the game so far, and I think Swate's claim makes more sense so far. We've had one death each night so far, which is probably the normal Pirate killing every night. There'd usually be a second death each night from a serial-killer like role, but we all know how we've now killed off the arsonist, so we don't need to worry about that. But what about our Vigilante like role? I thought maybe our Vigilante was just too uncertain of whom to kill, or got roleblocked a few times, but I think that Swate could of possibly been our Vigilante, and a more powerful version of one to boot (He could question the person anonymously, which would help him determine guilt of said person), which in the resulting confusion of yesterday, snowballed into us lynching him and not even knowing what he was for certain =S. The only thing that makes me pause about saying he's innocent is what he said about questioning storm, and storm basically denying it. So before I decide about Swate, I want to hear from @storm886 . I want to double check this, were you questioned at night in a situation similar to what Swate described? You said no, but I'm wondering why you would bus your only partner, and not try to help him in some way?
-I just though of this, we probably would have only one vigilante-like role, so if there was another vigilante role out there, that'd confirm Swate's guilt in my mind. Note: If you are a Vigilante out there, DON'T CLAIM. If we do have a doctor, they haven't seem to have tried to protect anyone that claims an important role, or they keep getting roleblocked. The other possibility is that we don't even have a doctor, but we don't know that for sure. Like I said, don't claim if you're a vigilante, I'm just throwing this out there as an idea.
On a sidenote, could we get an update from the inns? Like how many people are left in each inn, and out the people whom have died, which of them were in inns and which ones?
What do you think are the general roles/alignments of Swate/Storm/Digitalmez?
+Storm: I think this one I can believe in the most so far, I think he is what he says he is; basically an Alien out to probe us all.
+Digitalmez: Not completely sure, at first I thought that Ooglie was insane and proved digi's innocence and Swate's guilt, but in light of recent evidence being shown, it makes sense that Ooglie might have become a lazy cop after loosing his donuts (Donut Dan died), or the Cursed Tome had something to do with delaying his results. I'm looking around more today, but seems to be leaning towards guilty from my point of view.
+Swate: I felt that he acted suspicious throughout most of the game, and I figured Ooglie was insane since our other cop seemed sane (I actually don't remember now if we have proof that our other cop was sane?), which confirmed Swate's guilt. I look back at the events of the game so far, and I think Swate's claim makes more sense so far. We've had one death each night so far, which is probably the normal Pirate killing every night. There'd usually be a second death each night from a serial-killer like role, but we all know how we've now killed off the arsonist, so we don't need to worry about that. But what about our Vigilante like role? I thought maybe our Vigilante was just too uncertain of whom to kill, or got roleblocked a few times, but I think that Swate could of possibly been our Vigilante, and a more powerful version of one to boot (He could question the person anonymously, which would help him determine guilt of said person), which in the resulting confusion of yesterday, snowballed into us lynching him and not even knowing what he was for certain =S. The only thing that makes me pause about saying he's innocent is what he said about questioning storm, and storm basically denying it. So before I decide about Swate, I want to hear from @storm886 . I want to double check this, were you questioned at night in a situation similar to what Swate described? You said no, but I'm wondering why you would bus your only partner, and not try to help him in some way?
-I just though of this, we probably would have only one vigilante-like role, so if there was another vigilante role out there, that'd confirm Swate's guilt in my mind. Note: If you are a Vigilante out there, DON'T CLAIM. If we do have a doctor, they haven't seem to have tried to protect anyone that claims an important role, or they keep getting roleblocked. The other possibility is that we don't even have a doctor, but we don't know that for sure. Like I said, don't claim if you're a vigilante, I'm just throwing this out there as an idea.
On a sidenote, could we get an update from the inns? Like how many people are left in each inn, and out the people whom have died, which of them were in inns and which ones?
Enderfive
sarcasm incarnate
I'm in an inn with storm and one other, who I'm fairly certain is a townie. Following that logic, and assuming mafia had an agent in every inn as they usually do in BT games, I'm fairly certain Swate was the one from our inn and that there are were four mafia in total, one for each inn. The remaining member from our inn can out themself if they feel like it.
So we know that there are 7/13 people in inns still, plus a few more from the last inn. If this does follow a similar pattern, then there's probably one Pirate and one Third-Party per inn, with the fourth/fifth Pirate being outside of an inn (Since I believe there are only 3 inns). We don't know how likely it is that the pattern will follow, but it does seem to keep a similar pattern each game. Depending on how many people are alive in the last inn, we can start seeing if/what patterns there are.
No, I was not questioned at night in a situation similar to what Swate described. He wasn't really "my partner." He had the ability to become my partner, but he was choosing not to for some reason. I thought it would be better for me to let him go and claim than lie in order to save him when I didn't even know if he would join me. Even if he did end up joining me, I don't think it would've worked out due to his actions from the previous day.
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