Trouble in the West: Pirates vs Cowboys [Finished]

[Fiestaguy]

Why a Lynch at Day 0 is preferrable
a speech by Endersteve5 regarding a lynch or a No Lynch at Day 0 in "Trouble in the West: Pirates vs Cowboys"​

Day 0 is always a time when there is very little to go off, there are practically no leads and power roles usually don't have any information or possibility to use their powers either. Many might feel that a No Lynch would be a much more reasonable option and that is what usually happens. And they have a point. A No Lynch is the safe option, with no possibility of lynching a town member right at the start.

But should we always No Lynch? After all, that is the safe option!

No. We shouldn't. And we won't. On any given day, any reasonable townie would support a lynch, except if it's Day 0. Why? Because the town can't win if they don't kill off the mafia.

So I ask you, why is Day 0 so much different? The only difference is that there are hardly any leads to go off. But as you may be well aware, leads don't always point to the right person. There is always the possibility of lynching a townie, doesn't matter if it's Day 0 or Day 6.

More so, in this particular game, people already have strong suspicions about who might be scum, which lessens the "No leads" argument. Yes, we don't have evidence. However, people rarely have any concrete evidence even in the later days. Waiting for evidence to pop up is suicide by inaction. Not if done only on Day 0, but if the policy carries over to the other days, then it is. And if the policy doesn't carry over, then it's a flawed policy, due to which it should be abandoned.


Now, I've talked about why Day 0 shouldn't be much different from the rest of the days. However, I haven't brought any points supporting a lynch on Day 0 in particular. So that's exactly what I am going to do now.

A No Lynch on any day, even Day 0, is a free ticket for the mafia to kill a townie.

Pretty self-explanatory, if you think about it. If we No Lynch, we are simply sitting here, doing nothing, waiting for the clock to tick to midnight and letting the mafia kill one of our own without fighting back. There is only one situation where this is justified for the town, and that is a MyLo. I strongly doubt we are in a MyLo at this moment. We fight back on any other day, why not give ourselves a headstart and take the first kill for ourselves? Yes, the possibility of lynching scum right away is low, but I'll take low chance over no chance every day.

The mafia cannot influence our votes right now, as they could on any other day.

Ok, I'll admit, this is based mostly on speculation, but I feel that it is more likely than not that the mafia don't know who the other mafia are at this moment. That means they can't influence the vote. Let me explain: on any other day, the mafia know who the other mafia are. That means they are not going to start a vote on their fellow mafia members, and they're less likely to join in on the wagon as well, which lowers the chances of a successful lynch. However, we probably don't have that issue to deal with at the moment, which means that we might actually have a better chance of lynching a mafia member today than we do in the following few days. I don't know about you, but I'm very willing to go even for a random lynch today, because today we're all equal. Tomorrow they will have an advantage over us, and I'd like to use that equality on the one day that we have it.

The math, baby, the math!

Let's assume that we lynch a townie today, because if we decide to lynch, that's the most likely option. If that happens, then we actually have a better chance of lynching a non-townie tomorrow. It narrows down the list of suspects, meaning that we have less townies to lynch possibly, while still having the same amount of scum in the game, which means we have a better chance of lynching a non-town.
And in case we don't lynch a townie today... I don't feel like I need to explain why this would be good.


So there you have it, the reasons why I would very much prefer a lynch as opposed to a No Lynch. And due to that, I'll cast my vote.

Explanation: as I said, I'm even willing to lynch randomly at this point, because the benefits of lynching someone weigh up the risks in my opinion. And since Sploorky found a really nice slip by OMO, then that's what I'm going to go with. He is 100% certain that the mafia don't know who the other mafia are, while we only have speculations and theories, nothing concrete pointing towards the mafia not knowing their fellow mafia.

vote Old_Man_Oak_63

Edersteve we're not giving the mafia a ticket to kill, We're risking to give the mafia a bigger headstart they might already have. The risks are too high imo.

 

[Fiestaguy]

Also why has nobody accused me yet :c I feel unloved.

Start voting nottykitten and yell "IMA MAFIA LOLOLO". That'll help

 

[Fiestaguy]

I'm going on my last shift (already). I'll be back in another 45 minutes.

 

[Nottykitten]

Edersteve we're not giving the mafia a ticket to kill, We're risking to give the mafia a bigger headstart they might already have. The risks are too high imo.

You can't kill the mafia if you don't even try.

And yes, we are giving the mafia a free ticket to kill. Because if we No Lynch then we are not even doing anything to try and stop them. The risks are just as high tomorrow if we mislynch. So it should not stop us now.

 

[cooliorules]

Okay so I think I've caught up unless anyone has said anything else.

Generally on first day I don't vote bc everything is still starting up. I don't really have an opinion, either, until after that.
Anywho, I shall keep watch.

Also as a side note (I will say as well later on) but next weekend I won't be posting as much (but still trying to post) because all the birthday shit will be happening and people will want to see me and I will be all like "nooo let me have no life" but yeah. So from Saturday morning until Sunday night (Australian time. Friday night until Sunday morning American. Midnight-ish Friday until Mid-day-ish Sunday European). So don't you go after me because I will slap someone if you go all like "omg no post maf *boomboom*" and then I'm dead

 

[cooliorules]

I can see both sides to the lynch/no-lynch debate. Sure voting will be good because then we have less players (that sounds bad, but it's good statistically speaking) so then the next time we lynch, the percentage of hitting mafia/3-rd party will be higher.
If we nolynch then the mafia can just go out and kill someone like *boom boom* without losing one of their own.

Now, if there's a vigilante type role, don't kill this night. There's nowhere near enough information to kill someone. Doctor feel free to protect anyone you would like to (assuming there is one). That's about it from me for now.

 

[cooliorules]

Also kcrimp bc I'm assuming I was supposed to have that in my role pm since everyone is saying it but it wasn't in mine so gg Priz. I FEEL LOVED.

 

[Prizyms]

Also kcrimp bc I'm assuming I was supposed to have that in my role pm since everyone is saying it but it wasn't in mine so gg Priz. I FEEL LOVED.

To confirm your PM: Please include the word 'kcrimp' with your first message.

 

[cooliorules]

Wait wtf where o_o I've read every single post um I've missed something already oops

 

[cooliorules]

Okay yeah that was a derp on my part idek how I didn't see that oops

 

[Swate]

Going to bed now, will probably spend tomorrow's Physics lesson or something reading up on the new pages.. anyway, I'll probably end up subconsciously lurking this thread for a little more in a half-asleep state but night ^^ I'll be back probably about 9 hours from this message.

 

[cooliorules]

Same as Swate, sleep time for me.
I'll attempt to catch up tomorrow morning before school but idk if I can so then if not then I'll just read up at lunch or something idk then yeah. I'll be back either in about.. 9 hours, 12.5 hours or in about 20 hours. #sorrynotsorry

 

[Nottykitten]

I feel like throwing in math now Fiesta brought up his side of the math. You call lynching risky, but this is just as risky for the mafia as for us.

Let's say that 5 out of the 20 people are Mafia. Since if the Mafia does not know who their partners are, each mafia member will have a 21% chance that they lynch their fellow mafia member without knowing. Losing this member will also cost them 20% of their people(1/5), and every Mafia member counts.

Now for the town, each one of us has a 26% chance to lynch a mafia and a 74% chance to lynch a towny. However, if we lose a towny, we will only lose 7% of our population(1/15).


So while the chance to lynch a towny is 3 times higher than lynching a Mafia, the amount of people the town would lose is 3 times lower than the Mafia would lose.

So in my eyes they have just as much to lose as we do.

 

[Enderfive]

I feel like throwing in math now Fiesta brought up his side of the math. You call lynching risky, but this is just as risky for the mafia as for us.

Let's say that 5 out of the 20 people are Mafia. Since if the Mafia does not know who their partners are, each mafia member will have a 21% chance that they lynch their fellow mafia member without knowing. Losing this member will also cost them 20% of their people(1/5), and every Mafia member counts.

Now for the town, each one of us has a 26% chance to lynch a mafia and a 74% chance to lynch a towny. However, if we lose a towny, we will only lose 7% of our population(1/15).


So while the chance to lynch a towny is 3 times higher than lynching a Mafia, the amount of people the town would lose is 3 times lower than the Mafia would lose.

So in my eyes they have just as much to lose as we do.

Not to mention that if we do lose a towny, the chance of not losing one on the next day goes up.

 

[Enderfive]

Not to mention that if we do lose a towny, the chance of not losing one on the next day goes up.

Poor wording. What I meant was that if we decide to lynch, we're less likely to lynch a townie and more likely to lynch scum, if we lose a townie today.

 

[Fiestaguy]

I feel like throwing in math now Fiesta brought up his side of the math. You call lynching risky, but this is just as risky for the mafia as for us.

Let's say that 5 out of the 20 people are Mafia. Since if the Mafia does not know who their partners are, each mafia member will have a 21% chance that they lynch their fellow mafia member without knowing. Losing this member will also cost them 20% of their people(1/5), and every Mafia member counts.

Now for the town, each one of us has a 26% chance to lynch a mafia and a 74% chance to lynch a towny. However, if we lose a towny, we will only lose 7% of our population(1/15).


So while the chance to lynch a towny is 3 times higher than lynching a Mafia, the amount of people the town would lose is 3 times lower than the Mafia would lose.

So in my eyes they have just as much to lose as we do.

Still we're not sure if the mafia knows who their partners are. It could still be flavored text to enhance the story. But it could be the mafia REALLY doesn't know.

Sadly i have never been Mafia once so i do not know if your mafia partners are mentioned in the Role PM or not.

It IS true we might get a bigger percentage to lynch a mafia thomorrow but... What if we lynch a power role? What if we lynch our only doctor? What if we lynch a cop? That's even MORE benificial for the Mafia.

Second of all. There IS more to go off tomorrow. You can get a lot of info from night kills. Or whispers. Or a Cop is overconfident and reveals his info. Or someone visits a rough sleeper and he dies. Enough possible leads can appear if we wait.

 

[Nottykitten]

Still we're not sure if the mafia knows who their partners are. It could still be flavored text to enhance the story. But it could be the mafia REALLY doesn't know.

Sadly i have never been Mafia once so i do not know if your mafia partners are mentioned in the Role PM or not.

It IS true we might get a bigger percentage to lynch a mafia thomorrow but... What if we lynch a power role? What if we lynch our only doctor? What if we lynch a cop? That's even MORE benificial for the Mafia.

Second of all. There IS more to go off tomorrow. You can get a lot of info from night kills. Or whispers. Or a Cop is overconfident and reveals his info. Or someone visits a rough sleeper and he dies. Enough possible leads can appear if we wait.

What if we lynch a Mafia? Thats even MORE benificial for the town.

You look at things like every good outcome also has a possible bad outcome. While I'm seeing every bad outcome have a possible good outcome. It's how you look at things I guess.

Lynching is better though ^-^

 

[Enderfive]

Still we're not sure if the mafia knows who their partners are. It could still be flavored text to enhance the story. But it could be the mafia REALLY doesn't know.

Sadly i have never been Mafia once so i do not know if your mafia partners are mentioned in the Role PM or not.

It IS true we might get a bigger percentage to lynch a mafia thomorrow but... What if we lynch a power role? What if we lynch our only doctor? What if we lynch a cop? That's even MORE benificial for the Mafia.

Second of all. There IS more to go off tomorrow. You can get a lot of info from night kills. Or whispers. Or a Cop is overconfident and reveals his info. Or someone visits a rough sleeper and he dies. Enough possible leads can appear if we wait.

If it gets to lynching a town PR, that town PR should claim, regardless of whether it's Day 0 or Day 4.

In some games the mafia knows other mafia right from the start, in some they don't.

And yes, there is more to go off tomorrow, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't lynch today.

 

[Alisha]

Votecount V - The one where Alpha's afraid of how high the roman numerals could get

Nottykitten (2) - Old_Man_Oak_63, 77_is_the_best [9 to lynch]
Swate (4) - GmK, HypeBurst, Ooglie101, Nottykitten [7 to lynch]
Old_Man_Oak_63 (2) - Sploorky, endersteve5 [9 to lynch]

No Lynch (4) - Duffie, JKangaroo, Swate, Fiestaguy [6 to NL]

DEADLINE: 2014-05-19 / 19:00:00 [Defaults to NL]

 

[Fiestaguy]

If it gets to lynching a town PR, that town PR should claim, regardless of whether it's Day 0 or Day 4.

That's forcing town PR's into a corner and having 'em claim on Day 1 (0 in this case) wich is already very benificial for the mafia...

 

[Fiestaguy]

Votecount V - The one where Alpha's afraid of how high the roman numerals could get

Nottykitten (2) - Old_Man_Oak_63, 77_is_the_best [9 to lynch]
Swate (4) - GmK, HypeBurst, Ooglie101, Nottykitten [7 to lynch]
Old_Man_Oak_63 (2) - Sploorky, endersteve5 [9 to lynch]

No Lynch (4) - Duffie, JKangaroo, Swate, Fiestaguy [6 to NL]

DEADLINE: 2014-05-19 / 19:00:00 [Defaults to NL]

Lemme help you there
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
XIII
XIV
XV
XVI
XVII
XVIII
XIX
XX
That's 6-20 for ya

 

[Nottykitten]

That's forcing town PR's into a corner and having 'em claim on Day 1 (0 in this case) wich is already very benificial for the mafia...

Then what do you suppose we do? No Lynch untill none of us are left?

You know, not trying to get rid of the mafia is very benificial for the mafia...

 

[Fiestaguy]

Gathering info and making a bigger post.
Also i'm interested in hearing other peoples' opinions.

 

[Fiestaguy]

Gathering info and making a bigger post.
Also i'm interested in hearing other peoples' opinions.

Wait. Not a bigger post coming up.

I predict that this debate will just end in a stalemate so i'm going to stop here before we get too... agressive.

I stand by my vote, You stand by yours. Let's just end it there then.

 

[Timdood3]

BAH
I sleep in and this happens.
And....I quoted posts to respond to anyway....but they disappeared wat? o-o
The gist of it was: "Wat? I'm being wagoned for using the word fun? Wat? That's the silliest thing I've ever heard pfffahahaha"

Thanks for not posting for the last two hours, it helped me in catching up ^-^​

So...That does kind of seem like a slip from OMO, and I'm not really certain where I stand on the lynch/no-lynch argument....But seeing as how nothing will probably come from this...

Vote Old_Man_Oak_63