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Enderfive
sarcasm incarnate
Okay then, let's dance.
I am a Zombie. Before you all lynch me, however, consider the following:
* I am not the Zombie Leader. Don't ask for proof, I won't give it to you. Reasons will be explained shortly, but before that, let's get the other facts out of the way as well.
--> There are two zombies alive at this point, myself included.
* The Zombie Leader is either Inffy or Ooglie.
--> Our action was not blocked tonight.
--> There will be a third zombie by nightfall.
--> If no zombies die during the dayphase, the zombies will win. (Thanks for hinting at it in the thread title, Samlen.)
* The player that was infected is either Ltin, Inffy or Ooglie.
And here comes the fun part, the part which you will probably especially enjoy:
* Jk was the Lone Survivor prior to being converted.
--> You're lying.
Why I won't offer proof that I am not the Zombie Leader: when it comes time to hardclaim, Inffy will pick one out of the Blacksmith and the Samurai and Ooglie will pick another. My Leader will inevitably make a false claim and will claim what I was before being turned. For that reason, I will not undermine my Leader's claim prematurely by claiming it myself.
Now, Ltin, Inffy and Ooglie all have a choice to make. One of them is the Zombie Leader, but I highly doubt he's going to want to out himself by being the first to do as I say. Or maybe he will, now that I've brought the possibility up. Who knows.
For the other two there is a considerable risk either way you vote, so let me bring in a reason to vote with me, rather than against me. If you both follow my lead, one of you will win right there and then. If you don't, then regardless of whether or not the other one and the third guy did vote as I led, no one will win and the game will go on with six players alive.
Now, what happens then? Well, you can bet that the mafia will try and kill a zombie. They'll most likely hit either Inffy or Ooglie, since they have the added bonus of possibly being the Zombie Leader. The target may be either the leftover townie, the recently converted, or the Zombie Leader himself, but in any case, one of the two of them will most likely die. And you can bet your ass that the Zombie Leader will then go after the last townie who's not Fali to infect them. Maybe you'll get lucky and our target and mafia's target happens to be the same person. In that case the day will begin with five players and only one of them a townie, with the endgame ending up between the two mafia and two zombies. If, however, our targets aren't the same, then the game will be decided by who's hitting who, with mafia claiming the victory if they hit us and us claiming victory if we hit them. There are, of course, some certain wildcards, but they are so reliant on chance and luck and could very well turn out to be detrimental to the town's cause instead.
Bottom line is, it's nearly impossible to win as a townie at this point, so you might as well bet on the side that stands at least some hope.
So, moving on to who I propose we lynch - Vatumok. The Mafia Scout.
I still stand firmly by my theory that JK was the Lone Survivor. In fact, I stand behind it firmer than ever, because last night, after he'd been notified that he'd turned into a zombie, he revealed in our factionchat that he was indeed the Lone Survivor. I obviously cannot offer any conclusive proof of this, but all the arguments I've made so far in the main thread on this topic still stand, as they were made based on logic and intuition, not actual knowledge of the role. Remember, that last part only came last night.
That presents Vatumok with a slight problem, however. Namely, he's lying. It's quite simple, really, the claimable roles were starting to run out and he needed to act fast, lest he be branded as mafia. So he picked the one non-town role that he could very easily claim, since it involved no actions that would leave traces to other players, that would not be a threat to the town or the zombies. Except that he accidentally picked a role that we, the zombies, already know is by this point dead.
Now, why do I think that Vatumok is the Scout? This is more a gut feeling than anything, but considering how accurate gut feelings seem to be in this game, I'm willing to roll with it. Remember how in Day 1 Vatumok was trusting of me through the entire day? No? Well, I do, you can check back if you'd like. Remember how he switched that position right as Day 2 rolled around? Still no? I assure you though, this is how it happened. Or at least I think that's how it happened. I might have to check back myself.
Anyway, my theory is that Vatumok scouted me on Night 2, found out that I was a zombie and wanted to take me out without bringing too much attention to himself. Congratulations, Infected believed you enough to see "panic" in my tone (even though the conclusion you drew from your observations was ultimately correct, Inf, I still maintain that the observations themselves weren't as the whole process on my end was exactly how I described it on Day 2. That was probably what made it so frustrating) and then push on me, hard. You didn't quite get me that day, but you planted enough doubt in their heads that by the time night rolled around it seemed to me like you had successfully turned public opinion against me. Well played, that.
There are other things I could say here but Vatumok is actually a very, very good player and has been way more successful than I gave him credit for at avoiding saying anything irreversibly incriminating, balancing on the fence quite masterfully, just as Jk noted while he was still playing the Survivor, so the other things are just going to sound silly and by the time you ask me about them anyway, I've probably forgotten.
In any case, my gut says that Geek is the Godfather, since she's pretty much the only option left and both she and her predecessor have been extremely silent during the game, which is a common thing for newer players to do in a scum role.
So, I've made my gambit. You can reply, of course, ask me questions and whatnot, but bear in mind that if I see even the slightest possibility of how my answering them could jeopardize our plans, I'm obviously not going to answer them. The only reason I'm even doing this whole thing is because I was obviously in the suspicion spotlight without a credible claim to my name and this way I can at least benefit my own team while not tangling myself pointlessly in ever growing threads of lies.
Note that at the time of making this post, I've been up for 32 hours straight because I'm attempting to reset my horribly fucked up sleeping schedule and any glaring errors in logic, changes in tone or whatever other slights you might perceive in this post can probably entirely be chalked up to that.
Infected_alien8_
Garry's Mod Admin
Wow.
So basically you're saying that one out of me and ltin is infected so one of us should win the game with you if we vote Vat with you now, and the other will lose with Fali on the losing town side?
So basically you're saying that one out of me and ltin is infected so one of us should win the game with you if we vote Vat with you now, and the other will lose with Fali on the losing town side?
Infected_alien8_
Garry's Mod Admin
Okay.
I kinda believe you but at the same time this could be a super plan by you as the Zombie Leader, who was blocked and thus infected nobody, to get me, ltin and oog (your zombie pet) to vote Vat off to get you to win so I'm not really sure what to do right nowwwwww
I kinda believe you but at the same time this could be a super plan by you as the Zombie Leader, who was blocked and thus infected nobody, to get me, ltin and oog (your zombie pet) to vote Vat off to get you to win so I'm not really sure what to do right nowwwwww
Infected_alien8_
Garry's Mod Admin
Also sorry my observations were wrong, tbh whenever I get a gut feeling or vibe against someone it's a guessing game as to where exactly they came from for myself, so I just tried to analyze your posts and try to get the reasons as to why my gut thought you were a zombie, which I guess I'm NOT VERY GOOD AT. But ya sorry if it was frustrating <3
Enderfive
sarcasm incarnate
of course it would, so in the end it comes down to whether or not you trust me enough
right now i'm taking a huge risk sticking my neck out there like that, i could've just gone with cc'ing vatu and fought myself into a stalemate, but that would've meant risking the win when we've basically already got it
This sounds a bit fishy.
The way I see it, if all is as you say it is, I have three possibilities.
If am infected
-I can go with you (and according to you, win)
- I can not go with you (and still have a chance of winning)
If I am not infected
-I lose
Is this correct?
I'm a big fan of interesting plays Ender, shame that you are bluffing though.
If you look at the progress of the nights I don't know how there can still be 2 zombies assuming the zombie hunter and samurai haven't been overly reckless.
Day 0: just a zombie leader (???)
Night 1: I think our cop got killed by Samurai and the Mad Scientist by the mafia, it makes sense you infected someone tonight.
Day 1: there is a zombie leader (???) + 1 zombie (???)
Night 2: There are 3 kills on the Oracle, Doctor and the Detective. The only way there would be an infection is if doctor got killed by the suspicious samurai and either the oracle or detective got shot by the zombie hunter. I see no reason for our zombie hunter to randomly shoot the detective and then not kill on night 3.
Day 2: there is a zombie leader (???) + 1 zombie (???)
Night 3: It's revealed that the one turned zombie is JK.
Ender wouldn't know he is a zombie if he got infected this night so I can only conclude that he was the zombie leader.
I think this is a last effort play from Ender to try to save the zombies because he knows if he get lynched now they have lost. I think he legitimately was looking for Mafia, though I am not one, because he would be able to make a comeback as zombie leader. There's a good chance he's right about Geek being godfather, with the other mafia being probably oogle and -maybe- Inffy.
If you look at the progress of the nights I don't know how there can still be 2 zombies assuming the zombie hunter and samurai haven't been overly reckless.
Day 0: just a zombie leader (???)
Night 1: I think our cop got killed by Samurai and the Mad Scientist by the mafia, it makes sense you infected someone tonight.
Day 1: there is a zombie leader (???) + 1 zombie (???)
Night 2: There are 3 kills on the Oracle, Doctor and the Detective. The only way there would be an infection is if doctor got killed by the suspicious samurai and either the oracle or detective got shot by the zombie hunter. I see no reason for our zombie hunter to randomly shoot the detective and then not kill on night 3.
Day 2: there is a zombie leader (???) + 1 zombie (???)
Night 3: It's revealed that the one turned zombie is JK.
Ender wouldn't know he is a zombie if he got infected this night so I can only conclude that he was the zombie leader.
I think this is a last effort play from Ender to try to save the zombies because he knows if he get lynched now they have lost. I think he legitimately was looking for Mafia, though I am not one, because he would be able to make a comeback as zombie leader. There's a good chance he's right about Geek being godfather, with the other mafia being probably oogle and -maybe- Inffy.
Enderfive
sarcasm incarnate
if you're infected and all three of you vote with me, then we win
if you're infected, but at least one of you decides to vote against me with fali and the mafia, then you have a reasonable shot at winning
if you're not infected and you all vote with me, you lose
if you're not infected and don't vote with me, you have a chance to win still, but by my (admittedly biased) calculations it will be considerably smaller than the infected counterpart
if that makes any sense
I'm not saying it's impossible that there are 2 zombies left, I just think it's very unlikely given the circumstances. We have no clue if the oracle has a visit power and if 2 people got killed by the Samurai. Thinking about what town roles there are left there aren't much options to infect either. I am just choosing the option with the least assumptions, I think it's a much, much larger chance you are using your only play left to recover the game than that what you're saying is true.
Enderfive
sarcasm incarnate
for the sake of my own amusement and further convincing why you should vote with me, let's look at this situation as if it were the way vatu is describing it: i'm last zombie, i was blocked last night, no new zombies coming in, he's the lone survivor
if that would be the case, then optimal play for any town would be to join me and take the mafia down to one, let either fali or the mafia shoot me during the next night and hope that instead of infecting, i kill, bringing the player count down to 4 or 3 depending on how the night goes, allowing the remaining two townies (one of them can be the supposed lone survivor, i suppose) to eliminate the remaining mafioso
if you were to kill me today, then you have two mafioso who bring the playercount down to five by the start of the next day, sparing the lone survivor and allowing the survivor team with the mafia for a win
there would literally be no reason for the survivor not to betray town in that situation
if that would be the case, then optimal play for any town would be to join me and take the mafia down to one, let either fali or the mafia shoot me during the next night and hope that instead of infecting, i kill, bringing the player count down to 4 or 3 depending on how the night goes, allowing the remaining two townies (one of them can be the supposed lone survivor, i suppose) to eliminate the remaining mafioso
if you were to kill me today, then you have two mafioso who bring the playercount down to five by the start of the next day, sparing the lone survivor and allowing the survivor team with the mafia for a win
there would literally be no reason for the survivor not to betray town in that situation
Infected_alien8_
Garry's Mod Admin
I tried to do a thing where I wrote down all the many many possible outcomes but my head hurts and I can't do it anymore 
What I did find out though is that Town is pretty screwed so that's nice
What I did find out though is that Town is pretty screwed so that's nice
Enderfive
sarcasm incarnate
that depends on whether you're a (unknowing or not, doesn't matter) zombie or not
because let's face it, if you're the one we haven't touched, then i couldn't know, i can only guess that geek is more scummy than you in that situation
Town is not really screwed, the zombies (just ender now) have to be killed off and Faliara shoots one of the mafia. I will then support the 2 remaining town members to vote out the last remaining mafia so I win with town.I tried to do a thing where I wrote down all the many many possible outcomes but my head hurts and I can't do it anymore
What I did find out though is that Town is pretty screwed so that's nice
I think Ender said a bit too much with his last post (before yours). He describes the ideal situation for mafia but he forgets that Faliara has a very good chance to hit a mafia and that mafia can still hit the samurai. Because I feel that the town roles are pretty well known with all the claims it's too dangerous for town to let Ender live. He can infect me or a town and it will probably come down to either zombies or mafia winning.
To be honest, if Ender dies now I've likely already won as survivor, the faction with which I win just depends. If Faliara shoots mafia I win with town and if she shoots town I win with the mafia. I think I know who the remaining 2 mafia are, Ender even kinda of agrees with them as a zombie, and I am more than happy to win with town if you help me lynch Ender.
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