ZUPLAR INVASION - GAME OVER - TOWN WIN

myusername22

myusername22

A username.
Donor
Joined
Dec 17, 2012
Messages
858
Reaction score
937
30 20 15 10 10 5 2 1
Iggish said:
Can I ask why you gave the guns to those people? I mean, I understand why you would give one to Ooglie on the first day but why Foggy after all the heat he experienced in the previous day? His allegiance to Hk made it seem like he was scummy so why would you give him a means of killing someone? Surely you would give that to someone confirmed town who could then use it on a suspected mafia.

IMO there's a chance that you are scummy (hear me out). In this bit here I'm just gonna pretend that you are confirmed mafia which is not what I actually think, just easier for the post. I think that gave the gun to Foggy either because he is your mafia teammate and wanted to give him a means of killing someone (unlikely cos why would he reveal it?) or because since you are a mafia you knew that he was most likely town (unlikely to be devil statistically). You knew he was under heat and there was a large chance of him being lynched the following day (a town) so you gave him the gun hoping he'd lash out at another town meaning that two towns would pretty much die during one day.

Now this is all just theory, I don't suspect myusername that much at all (yet, waiting on his response) but I simply don't understand why a townsided player would give a gun to Foggy considering what happened in the previous day. Could you answer this for me myuser?
Click to expand...
When I chose to gun Ooglie it was based on the somewhat meta reasoning of me feeling like he's had easier to read scum tells in the past. Oddly, I'm not seeing those in this game, but if he's smart he would've changed playstyles by now so that's no surprise there. Overall, I can't get a reading on Ooglie, but unu's claim is the only solid reason I can suggest to believe ooglie might be mafia (other than him being pretty quiet and not making a ton of posts).

However, When you make this post like this it makes me wonder if you have information I don't. When I chose to gun Foggy I had significantly less information to go on than this morning. yesterday we lynched between Vino and HKcaper for what was most likely a 50/50 shot at mafia. The result was that HKCaper was lynched, and flipped town, so if we kept assuming our scenario was correct we would see a 100% chance of vino being scum. Vino suggested this game could contain some sort of tailor role, but regardless of his role alignment he has obvious motivation to suggest that considering HKCaper had claimed his exact role down to the name and everything. Otherwise, there was no evidence to suggest a tailor role existing in the game. To just look at HKCaper flip town and assume he must've been tailored would be like having a cop get an innocent report, and so assuming said person is the godfather, or getting a guilty report from a cop and assuming the person is the miller. You can always suspect the report is wrong, and so be hesitant to lynch someone, but to play assuming HKCaper is mafia (especially at that point in the game) would be crazy. (this is where I'm wondering if you have information I don't). There still isn't a ton of evidence suggesting a tailor role in the game. The only evidence for it is mulberry's claim that Hkcaper killed Enderfive, which suggests Hkcaper was likely lying to us as a watcher wouldn't have a kill ability. If it weren't for Mulberry's claim I'd still suspect vino as mafia.

Furthermore, It's important to remember that aside from Notty's claim there was no evidence of a devil, and it sounded like something she was making up.

Initially, my first thought was to give it to notty partially because I believed a lot of players would be too afraid to use the gun and we wouldn't be able to use it to help the town. I figured I should give it to Notty, but I've had this theory going that she lied to us and is actually a mafia sided role whose existence causes death messages to be encoded (hence why she would have the code for them). It seemed all too convenient that she would happen to be roleblocked and lose her role at the time, especially since the role she was claiming could be easily circumvented. TWG has also confirmed the existence of a devil today, so maybe she would've been a safe choice, but I feared giving a gun to such a skilled player if she turned out to be scum.

I could have given it to Unusual. That'd be a safe choice, but we'd be deciding to kill someone instead of obtaining important information for the town. Again, the gun is useless in this situation.

I next thought of Vino, he seems like a skilled player who knows what he's doing. I feel like he's town telling slightly too, but I could be mis-reading him. However, as I've explained above the circumstances at the time lead me to believe he was most likely mafia.

I considered TWG since he was confirmed by vino, but that was the problem. It was a confirmation made by someone who was most likely mafia, so in my eyes this was pretty much useless.

As far as other claims went, there weren't a lot of significant things to back up the other claims, so I didn't really think it necessarily safe to believe any of them.

My next thought was that the president sounds like a pretty solid town power role. I felt like I could probably trust the President with the gun, so I thought about who I thought was most likely to be the president, and it turns out that I was wrong, but It seemed most likely to me that Foggy was the president, so I picked Foggy.

Guns aren't anonymous, so even if we gave one to scum it isn't the end of the world, especially since using it gives us evidence against them, but I still felt the best course of action was to give it to someone who was likely town sided, and whom I felt would be likely to use the gun. (since an extra kill for the town is often a powerful advantage for the town)

Can someone explain why Foggy is so suspicious? The main reasons I'm seeing against him are that he has a gun (given by me) and that he was initially against an HKCaper lynch.

I don't see a reason why having a gun would be suspicious. My role is basically a gunsmith, which is almost always town, so whether or not he receives a gun shouldn't be suspicion on him, but on me because people should be asking my reasoning for giving away the guns (I hope everything said above is adequate)

As far as being against the HKCaper lynch it was between vino and HKCaper, and it looks like vino is just suspecting him for believing it could be vino instead of HK. As far as I'm concerned I still don't know what HK's role actually was. All I know is that Mulberry's claim gives us reason to doubt his flip, so Vino can likely be viewed as innocent.

When I voted HK yesterday I did it based purely on reads, and people can disagree about what they find suspicious, so I don't see a reason why suspecting vino should necessarily make him scum unless he was overlooking major evidence or there were suspicious gaps in his reasoning. (Though, we should definitely keep track of voting patterns as those are helpful in the long run)
 
Iggish

Iggish

Member
Joined
May 31, 2014
Messages
359
Reaction score
827
30 20 15 10 5 10 2 1
myusername22 said:
When I chose to gun Ooglie it was based on the somewhat meta reasoning of me feeling like he's had easier to read scum tells in the past. Oddly, I'm not seeing those in this game, but if he's smart he would've changed playstyles by now so that's no surprise there. Overall, I can't get a reading on Ooglie, but unu's claim is the only solid reason I can suggest to believe ooglie might be mafia (other than him being pretty quiet and not making a ton of posts).

However, When you make this post like this it makes me wonder if you have information I don't. When I chose to gun Foggy I had significantly less information to go on than this morning. yesterday we lynched between Vino and HKcaper for what was most likely a 50/50 shot at mafia. The result was that HKCaper was lynched, and flipped town, so if we kept assuming our scenario was correct we would see a 100% chance of vino being scum. Vino suggested this game could contain some sort of tailor role, but regardless of his role alignment he has obvious motivation to suggest that considering HKCaper had claimed his exact role down to the name and everything. Otherwise, there was no evidence to suggest a tailor role existing in the game. To just look at HKCaper flip town and assume he must've been tailored would be like having a cop get an innocent report, and so assuming said person is the godfather, or getting a guilty report from a cop and assuming the person is the miller. You can always suspect the report is wrong, and so be hesitant to lynch someone, but to play assuming HKCaper is mafia (especially at that point in the game) would be crazy. (this is where I'm wondering if you have information I don't). There still isn't a ton of evidence suggesting a tailor role in the game. The only evidence for it is mulberry's claim that Hkcaper killed Enderfive, which suggests Hkcaper was likely lying to us as a watcher wouldn't have a kill ability. If it weren't for Mulberry's claim I'd still suspect vino as mafia.

Furthermore, It's important to remember that aside from Notty's claim there was no evidence of a devil, and it sounded like something she was making up.

Initially, my first thought was to give it to notty partially because I believed a lot of players would be too afraid to use the gun and we wouldn't be able to use it to help the town. I figured I should give it to Notty, but I've had this theory going that she lied to us and is actually a mafia sided role whose existence causes death messages to be encoded (hence why she would have the code for them). It seemed all too convenient that she would happen to be roleblocked and lose her role at the time, especially since the role she was claiming could be easily circumvented. TWG has also confirmed the existence of a devil today, so maybe she would've been a safe choice, but I feared giving a gun to such a skilled player if she turned out to be scum.

I could have given it to Unusual. That'd be a safe choice, but we'd be deciding to kill someone instead of obtaining important information for the town. Again, the gun is useless in this situation.

I next thought of Vino, he seems like a skilled player who knows what he's doing. I feel like he's town telling slightly too, but I could be mis-reading him. However, as I've explained above the circumstances at the time lead me to believe he was most likely mafia.

I considered TWG since he was confirmed by vino, but that was the problem. It was a confirmation made by someone who was most likely mafia, so in my eyes this was pretty much useless.

As far as other claims went, there weren't a lot of significant things to back up the other claims, so I didn't really think it necessarily safe to believe any of them.

My next thought was that the president sounds like a pretty solid town power role. I felt like I could probably trust the President with the gun, so I thought about who I thought was most likely to be the president, and it turns out that I was wrong, but It seemed most likely to me that Foggy was the president, so I picked Foggy.

Guns aren't anonymous, so even if we gave one to scum it isn't the end of the world, especially since using it gives us evidence against them, but I still felt the best course of action was to give it to someone who was likely town sided, and whom I felt would be likely to use the gun. (since an extra kill for the town is often a powerful advantage for the town)

Can someone explain why Foggy is so suspicious? The main reasons I'm seeing against him are that he has a gun (given by me) and that he was initially against an HKCaper lynch.

I don't see a reason why having a gun would be suspicious. My role is basically a gunsmith, which is almost always town, so whether or not he receives a gun shouldn't be suspicion on him, but on me because people should be asking my reasoning for giving away the guns (I hope everything said above is adequate)

As far as being against the HKCaper lynch it was between vino and HKCaper, and it looks like vino is just suspecting him for believing it could be vino instead of HK. As far as I'm concerned I still don't know what HK's role actually was. All I know is that Mulberry's claim gives us reason to doubt his flip, so Vino can likely be viewed as innocent.

When I voted HK yesterday I did it based purely on reads, and people can disagree about what they find suspicious, so I don't see a reason why suspecting vino should necessarily make him scum unless he was overlooking major evidence or there were suspicious gaps in his reasoning. (Though, we should definitely keep track of voting patterns as those are helpful in the long run)
Click to expand...
So despite all of the people that you pretty much knew to be town you guessed at someone you thought would be town and who had a role you knew nothing about?
I find it very difficult to follow your reasoning here? You also said yourself there that it was a 50-50 between vino and Hk and foggy was blatantly siding with Hk, leading us to think that Foggy and Hk were working together. While we also thought that notty and vino may be working together I still don't understand taking that risk?

IMO there has been sufficient evidence to suggest the existence of a tailor role. They both counter claimed each other with Vino bringing up the possible tailor role. If don't believe in the existence of the role, then why haven't you voted for Vino? Since Hk flipped town (allegedly, probs not IMO as I think he was a tailor), why didn't you automatically vote Vino as they counterclaimed each other? It's also extremely unlikely that they shared the same role as they claimed the exact same name, Johnathan May (iirc).
myusername22 said:
Right now I am suspicious of three people. Ooglie, Notty, and Iggish.

Ooglie based only on the roleblock, but Notty and Iggish are just gut feelings.
Click to expand...
You posted this earlier in this day with no mention of Vino whatsoever, why? Surely you'd be really suspicious of him? Idk, your points just don't add up for me. Your suspicions don't match your large post and your choice of foggy doesn't make a lot of sense at all.
 
myusername22

myusername22

A username.
Donor
Joined
Dec 17, 2012
Messages
858
Reaction score
937
30 20 15 10 10 5 2 1
Iggish said:
So despite all of the people that you pretty much knew to be town you guessed at someone you thought would be town and who had a role you knew nothing about?
Click to expand...
What are you talking about? My entire post above explains a list of people I had been considering, and reasoning as to why I couldn't trust they were town.
Iggish said:
You also said yourself there that it was a 50-50 between vino and Hk and foggy was blatantly siding with Hk, leading us to think that Foggy and Hk were working together.
Click to expand...
Here you are intentionally twisting my words to make me look bad. I never once said that Foggy was siding with HK, I only said that Foggy found Vino to be more suspicious of HK. Why should believing a different counter claim of a different person be reason to suspect you are siding with the one you find more legit? I believed Vino's claim and found HK more suspicious yesterday, but by your logic that would mean I'm teaming with Vino? Cool, I guess me and vino are mafia buddies now according to you.

Iggish said:
IMO there has been sufficient evidence to suggest the existence of a tailor role. They both counter claimed each other with Vino bringing up the possible tailor role. If don't believe in the existence of the role, then why haven't you voted for Vino? Since Hk flipped town (allegedly, probs not IMO as I think he was a tailor), why didn't you automatically vote Vino as they counterclaimed each other?
Click to expand...
I count two pieces of evidence suggesting the possibility of a tailor role. One of them is mulberry's claim, which occurred today, and is therefore not relevant to the information that was available last night. This leaves only the second which is that Vino claimed the same name and role as HK. But the problem here is that Vino could have easily been lying, and since he claimed second would not require a tailor role. at that point in time if vino were lying he didn't actually need any information about the role, (In fact, I don't think he provided any) He simply copied what HK had said when doing his counter claim, at no point does this require there to be a tailor. So the only proof of a tailor role or some similar role existing is Vino's innocence, which was at that point unproven unless you take the fact that vino's claim suggested a tailor role could exist as evidence of Vino's evidence, but that's some pretty extreme circular reasoning as it would be saying vino is innocent because Hk must be a tailor because Vino is innocent.

Iggish said:
why didn't you automatically vote Vino as they counterclaimed each other? It's also extremely unlikely that they shared the same role as they claimed the exact same name, Johnathan May (iirc).
You posted this earlier in this day with no mention of Vino whatsoever, why?
Click to expand...
You're maliciously taking events out of order. Mulberry's claim today suggests that HK was lying yesterday, which does suggest that a tailor role could exist, and thus gives us reason to believe vino might not be lying. It doesn't prove 100% vino isn't mafia, but it shows it's no longer a 50/50 between vino and HK where vino is confirmed mafia. Several people were suspicious of Vino this morning, but nobody pursued it after mulberry's claim.

The post you're referring to was made after Mulberry had claimed, which doesn't directly prove Vino is innocent, but it definitely says there is more to the story we aren't seeing, and that a lynch on vino isn't necessarily the best choice today.

I was supicious of you because you only seem to make short posts occasionally without any major contributions to the game, but it looks like you're intentionally trying to tunnel on me without decent reasoning, so I've become convinced you probably aren't a town player.

Vote Iggish
 
D

Deleted member 4601

Guest
Also it would be best to vote for hip now I guess unless there's anything that would suggest otherwise so-

vote hipman500

Also I wonder if it would be detrimental to town for TheWeakGuy48_ to tell us what role he had before the devil visited him, woof.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top