MEDIEVAL MAFIA: INTRUSION [DAY 8]

[storm886]

Well since it seems UltimateBudgie could have been unable to respond... and he is replaced, I suppose I should remove the vote and watch Natsu.

Now to this issue at hand. I don't think that I have ever seen an argument as thorough and long as road's in the game of mafia. That being said, I can kind of understand what road is saying about him sacrificing himself for one person; it makes sense. Of course, road is very experienced just like Alpha and Sploorky, and I feel like he could be fooling us. But Hunter's arguments are not as strong in my opinion and he seems frantic to get the attention off of him, which is understandable since he is new and accumulating votes. Now here is what I think. Either:

• Hunter is mafia/sk and road is town. [-]
• Hunter is town and road is mafia/sk. [-]
• Hunter is town and road is town. [+]
• Hunter is sk and road is mafia. [-]
• Hunter is mafia and road is sk. [-]

Four of these scenarios have someone that needs to be eliminated [-], and one does not [+]. Four of these scenarios have Hunter and road on different sides. So there is an 80% chance that one of them is sk/mafia, and a 20% chance that they are both townspeople. (Btw, I don't think that both of them are mafia. It would be way too risky of a scheme.) Therefore, I think it is necessary that one of them is lynched today. And right now I am more convinced by road's argument...

Unvote
Vote Hunter27a1

 

[Ansoro2112]

Note to everyone first: If I ever sound too agressive with what I write is not because Im mad or anything. Is just the way I play. Nothing personal! Just clearing that up before someone mentions I'm taking it too serious. I love you all <3

Okay, lets get serious now.

Also, Road and Ansoro are dictating that there's a lack of evidence, meaning they can't have strong arguments, but they're also pushing for a quick lynch. Not making much sense.

Lack of evidence? I've already shown my reasons of why I found Hunter to be mafia. I've shown it already. Either you decide to go with it or not that's fine. But that's MY evidence. And in my opinion its more than enough to lynch him. It's not a quick lynch. There are evidence that can support that.

And about what I mentioned about Doomed Cruise was simply saying that is similar to right now. By that I mean that when I believe someone's mafia I'm going to go 100% for it. That's how I play. Right now I'm sure he's mafia. So I'll stick to my vote. Not trying to say like "Omg since I was right about Alpha last season then you need to vote with me because I might be right in this as well" No. That's dumb.

And yes. We can go forever with this but it would be awesome to hear from others as well.

 

[The Road to Ruin]

Of course, road is very experienced just like Alpha and Sploorky, and I feel like he could be fooling us

 

[Hunter]

My point, if I was mafia why would I burn myself to kill ONE person. The mafia are very limited in personal, so this would be like hitting on a 20 for them. Calling it circumstantial evidence is just ignoring (or burying) it while paying lip service. I welcome the chance to pick apart my argument, but denying this as a legitimate point is just scummy all over again. You acknowledge the following points

1. If I am scum than I must kill the townspeople
2. If I am scum I know you are one of the townspeople
3. If I lynch you I will probably be lynched tomorrow

Couple things about that. First Ltin is dead even with no little evidence for the lynch and you helped that bandwagon, the only thing separating what I hypothesis about you and what you hypothesis against me is that for me winning and losing are both suicide, while you have suffered no heat at all. Secondly there are some points you may not have assumed or are purposely ignoring.

1. The mafia has no way of regaining members
2. The mafia is drastically out numbered by the town
3. At a 1=1 exchange rate the mafia has literally no chance for victory.
4. If we factor in serial killer, mafia night action, and vigilante action it require three nightly town kills every night for victory to be possible.

Your calling me out because to you I have very little evidence but I'm not dealing in quotes, saying "Player X said Y analysis shows Z" I working on "Action A resulted in Outcome B so Scenario C is likely". You and me hunter, one of us is going to be lynched today. All I've tried to argue is that if your actions make the most sense as to whose mafia. Lets break it down with my ABC formula above, than maybe the rest of you can see where I'm coming from.

If we assume that hunter is mafia than I submit the following
Hunters action A (Helping to lynch Ltin) resulted in outcome B (No heat on hunter, 1 townie eliminated) therefore scenario C (Hunter has executed a successful mafia action and brought them closer to victory) seems likely? I think so

Inversely, assuming I am mafia than I submit the following
Roads action X (Pushing to lynch Hunter) resulted in outcome Y (Massive heat on road, Hunter possibly eliminated, Road certainly doomed) therefore scenario Z (Road has achieved at best Pyrrhic victory at worst cause significant harm to mafia, and the brought them further from victory) Seems likely? I would dream of it.

I'm sorry I haven't written this before, I couldn't find the words before. I don't work with quotes and exact words, its not my style and I'm not good with that stuff so I avoid it. I have put my reasoning here, judge me on it how you will.

You're breaking down my arguments into minor points and implying that I'm "suffering no heat".
Just look at today's posts.
You're picking only evidence that supports your own argument, claiming the situation where you're mafia is unlikely as your strategy would be stupid, and holding that one of us HAS to be mafia. Hell, we could both be villagers throwing rocks at each other while the mafia looks on and laughs. Conversely, we could both be mafia and this could be a major bus attempt to throw suspicion off of others, regardless of who gets lynched.
Whether or not me or road gets lynched, WIFOM will come back and haunt us.

 

[myusername22]

And to those that are voting for me, I realize I must be coming off pretty hot. But if you think I'm scum because I'm pushing a vote on hunter than remember I've played more than a couple games of mafia. I hosted a season with a very successful mafia so I know who a good mafia runs, if I were in a the mafia would I so easily throw my life away on one kill. ONE KILL I would know would turn up damning? Maybe later in the game but never this soon. It does not make sense to kamikaze this early in the game. So if you don't think I'm right fine, but ask yourself this "If I was mafia would this make sense to me"? I think you'll find this is a really bad tactic if you knew it would kill you, especially if you weren't sure you could get the kill.

first off I'd like to point out that most people realize it's possible for a towny to be wrong, Because of this it isn't even true that you'll automatically be killed If hunter were innocent, sure you'd be more suspicious but that doesn't automatically mean the end of your life.

Ofcourse one would say that a mafia member would never do such a move because it would make them suspicious. And therefor a mafia member could do it in order to seem town-like.

Notty originally use this argument on Jivvi but i feel it's more relevant here.

WHY?

Because here you are using it for the exact reason of claiming you can't be mafia when you Just as easily could. This could be an attempt to make you seem innocent.

1. Hmm, everyone posting hypothetical about last night.
2. Ltins suggestion is kinda weird but oh well.
3. Really he's getting votes for a suggested hypothetical, no way this will get out of hand.
4. I get back this game tomorrow.
5. NO WAY! There will be hell to pay tomorrow alpha!
6. Oh he died, well who else pushed that ridiculous bandwagon.

you've admitted you're only looking for blood, which isn't the way mafia really get found. townspeople need to keep calm and level-headed otherwise the mafia will use this to their advantage. I find this suspicious also because you're experienced here and i feel you should know better. It's an easy excuse to claim but I'm unsure why you think revenge is so beneficial. townspeople are wrong about lynches all the time it doesn't automatically make them mafia, heck i remember in doomed cruise when me and notty were trying to get each other lynched and we both showed up as innocent (although notty wasn't actually)

 

[Natsu]

Right, I've been asleep while this all happened. XD

Anyway, hey everyone c:

 

[myusername22]

Right, I've been asleep while this all happened. XD

Anyway, hey everyone c:

hello natsu welcome to the game! you may wish to go back and read through quite a few pages to catch up xD

 

[Natsu]

Thanks, I already read through some of the thread and I think I'm up to date. x3

 

[Hunter]

That's good; glad to have another active member.

 

[Hunter]

Have a fos yet?

 

[The Road to Ruin]

My point, if I was mafia why would I burn myself to kill ONE person. The mafia are very limited in personal, so this would be like hitting on a 20 for them. Calling it circumstantial evidence is just ignoring (or burying) it while paying lip service. I welcome the chance to pick apart my argument, but denying this as a legitimate point is just scummy all over again. You acknowledge the following points

1. If I am scum than I must kill the townspeople
2. If I am scum I know you are one of the townspeople
3. If I lynch you I will probably be lynched tomorrow

Couple things about that. First Ltin is dead even with no little evidence for the lynch and you helped that bandwagon, the only thing separating what I hypothesis about you and what you hypothesis against me is that for me winning and losing are both suicide, while you have suffered no heat at all. Secondly there are some points you may not have assumed or are purposely ignoring.

1. The mafia has no way of regaining members
2. The mafia is drastically out numbered by the town
3. At a 1=1 exchange rate the mafia has literally no chance for victory.
4. If we factor in serial killer, mafia night action, and vigilante action it require three nightly town kills every night for victory to be possible.

Your calling me out because to you I have very little evidence but I'm not dealing in quotes, saying "Player X said Y analysis shows Z" I working on "Action A resulted in Outcome B so Scenario C is likely". You and me hunter, one of us is going to be lynched today. All I've tried to argue is that if your actions make the most sense as to whose mafia. Lets break it down with my ABC formula above, than maybe the rest of you can see where I'm coming from.

If we assume that hunter is mafia than I submit the following
Hunters action A (Helping to lynch Ltin) resulted in outcome B (No heat on hunter, 1 townie eliminated) therefore scenario C (Hunter has executed a successful mafia action and brought them closer to victory) seems likely? I think so

Inversely, assuming I am mafia than I submit the following
Roads action X (Pushing to lynch Hunter) resulted in outcome Y (Massive heat on road, Hunter possibly eliminated, Road certainly doomed) therefore scenario Z (Road has achieved at best Pyrrhic victory at worst cause significant harm to mafia, and the brought them further from victory) Seems likely? I would dream of it.

I'm sorry I haven't written this before, I couldn't find the words before. I don't work with quotes and exact words, its not my style and I'm not good with that stuff so I avoid it. I have put my reasoning here, judge me on it how you will.

You're breaking down my arguments into minor points and implying that I'm "suffering no heat".
Just look at today's posts.
You're picking only evidence that supports your own argument, claiming the situation where you're mafia is unlikely as your strategy would be stupid, and holding that one of us HAS to be mafia. Hell, we could both be villagers throwing rocks at each other while the mafia looks on and laughs. Conversely, we could both be mafia and this could be a major bus attempt to throw suspicion off of others, regardless of who gets lynched.
Whether or not me or road gets lynched, WIFOM will come back and haunt us.

Use all the fancy info tags and diagrams you want I know I'm right and your argument is slipping with every additional ounce of pressure.

First off I fail to see how I am cherry picking, rather that's what your argument against me boils down to now that I've expressed my evidence. Everytime I cite what about your actions I find scummy we get something along the lines of this

I truly believe hunter is mafia. He pushed a vote on Ltin with very little evidence, and honestly I find it hard to believe so little people are talking about it!

The same could be said of you. Just replace the names with the current scenario.

I truly believe road is mafia. He pushed a vote on hunter with very little evidence, and honestly I find it hard to believe so little people are talking about it!

Interesting how the accuser's arguments can be effectively used against himself.

You say my arguments are bad, yet they are the same arguments I saw yesterday- from you- against someone confirmed innocent. Also as I posted the preceding point to my main argument you called it anecdotal. That may be a perfect example of cherry picking.

If I'm guilty of false dilemma, and you find that bad than why have you not only excersied that but embraced it. Through today when ever I accused you, I would separate why I think your guilty and my personal plea of innocence because I consider them two different arguements (go ahead check I'll wait) yet every attack from you seems to combine that assumption that your innocent and I'm scum, which are somehow related. It's circular logic at its most base.

Further more I would just say points 3-5 fold back into your own cherry picking, I've pointed holes in your argument and patched holes in my own yet you would call that skewing everything? Is it making a straw man of your evidence to point out the contradictions? I feel right now is a perfect example of a little logic tool I call Occams razor, a simple argument is more likely true than a complex argument. I propose that the evidence against me is rather flimsy, and because you fused those arguments with those of your defense, you (by the transitive property) are guilty.

Side note

And to those that are voting for me, I realize I must be coming off pretty hot. But if you think I'm scum because I'm pushing a vote on hunter than remember I've played more than a couple games of mafia. I hosted a season with a very successful mafia so I know who a good mafia runs, if I were in a the mafia would I so easily throw my life away on one kill. ONE KILL I would know would turn up damning? Maybe later in the game but never this soon. It does not make sense to kamikaze this early in the game. So if you don't think I'm right fine, but ask yourself this "If I was mafia would this make sense to me"? I think you'll find this is a really bad tactic if you knew it would kill you, especially if you weren't sure you could get the kill.

first off I'd like to point out that most people realize it's possible for a towny to be wrong, Because of this it isn't even true that you'll automatically be killed If hunter were innocent, sure you'd be more suspicious but that doesn't automatically mean the end of your life.

After all the passion of my arguments I'm rather unconvinced I've any choice other than glory or gallows. I'll be the first to vote road if this hunter situation goes south.

 

[The Road to Ruin]

BTW Could we get a vote count please?

 

[myusername22]

After all the passion of my arguments I'm rather unconvinced I've any choice other than glory or gallows. I'll be the first to vote road if this hunter situation goes south.

Please don't. I want a good and well played game here.

though it's a game where my objective is to defeat the mafia i still expect the mafia to give their full attempt and not give up. having someone to vs against is part of what makes this game fun.

If you are town you're not doing any good by supporting a lynch on yourself (you're not only killing off a towny(yourself) you're also wasting a day to lynch as well)

unless it's some insanely clever ploy I really don't think there is a situation in mafia where one should strategically vote for themself.

 

[The Road to Ruin]

[/quote]

Ofcourse one would say that a mafia member would never do such a move because it would make them suspicious. And therefor a mafia member could do it in order to seem town-like.

Notty originally use this argument on Jivvi but i feel it's more relevant here.

WHY?

Because here you are using it for the exact reason of claiming you can't be mafia when you Just as easily could. This could be an attempt to make you seem innocent.

1. Hmm, everyone posting hypothetical about last night.
2. Ltins suggestion is kinda weird but oh well.
3. Really he's getting votes for a suggested hypothetical, no way this will get out of hand.
4. I get back this game tomorrow.
5. NO WAY! There will be hell to pay tomorrow alpha!
6. Oh he died, well who else pushed that ridiculous bandwagon.

you've admitted you're only looking for blood, which isn't the way mafia really get found. townspeople need to keep calm and level-headed otherwise the mafia will use this to their advantage. I find this suspicious also because you're experienced here and i feel you should know better. It's an easy excuse to claim but I'm unsure why you think revenge is so beneficial. townspeople are wrong about lynches all the time it doesn't automatically make them mafia, heck i remember in doomed cruise when me and notty were trying to get each other lynched and we both showed up as innocent (although notty wasn't actually)


[/quote]

Let me clear this up, I've more than shared my opinion on Ltins lynch. I thought it was totally brash of Alpha to start the wagon going, I found very audacious and I was convinced he was scum. We will never know where alpha stood until the game is over but it was more than damning for me. I didn't mean there would be hell to pay in an angry scream of vengeance, I thought he was a dead man (I was kinda right) for being so blatant. But really back to your main point of neon camo tactics- it might have worked but no way now, with everyone not totally convinced of who to back and the polls rather even there is no way I'm wrong and alive two days from now. Just putting it out there I know I'm not scum, but I know how to examine theories from every angle, to find out who profits from what and as I previously proved for me to be scum in this scenario does not make sense.

 

[The Road to Ruin]

After all the passion of my arguments I'm rather unconvinced I've any choice other than glory or gallows. I'll be the first to vote road if this hunter situation goes south.

Please don't. I want a good and well played game here.

though it's a game where my objective is to defeat the mafia i still expect the mafia to give their full attempt and not give up. having someone to vs against is part of what makes this game fun.

If you are town you're not doing any good by supporting a lynch on yourself (you're not only killing off a towny(yourself) you're also wasting a day to lynch as well)

unless it's some insanely clever ploy I really don't think there is a situation in mafia where one should strategically vote for themself.

Not a strategy, an analogy (if I'm using that word correctly). As far I as can predict if I'm wrong I couldn't sell it to myself I'm innocent so how could I sell it to anyone else, a more apart simile might be jumping out of a burning skyscraper. I don't plan to vote for myself in a give up way, I just don't see myself walking away from this without being right. I'm really confident I'm right so I doubt it would come to that but that's what I see my situation as, glory or gallows.

 

[myusername22]

One other thing that's bothering me. You're starting a lynch on hunter then claiming you can't be mafia because a Mafia wouldn't start a lynch since it would attract attention.

However wouldn't this logic also apply to both hunter and alpha? I hate it when people use wifom loops only when it is advantageous for them.

You claim you've proven you can't be mafia but you really haven't "proven" anything. You could be mafia just as easily as anyone else sure it's a "less likely" tactic but I feel if there were ever a more convenient timing to use such tactics they would be now. One of the main problems with someone attacking someone else to seem mafia is that it draws attention from power roles. The problem is: nobody knows if any town investigative roles are still alive. Since we have two unknown deaths we can't assume they are alive. Therefore we must act as if they aren't in play and since the game has reached a point where many are side tracked by hunter, fewer are likely to question you making this an ideal time to use such tactics

 

[The Road to Ruin]

One other thing that's bothering me. You're starting a lynch on hunter then claiming you can't be mafia because a Mafia wouldn't start a lynch since it would attract attention.

However wouldn't this logic also apply to both hunter and alpha? I hate it when people use wifom loops only when it is advantageous for them.

You claim you've proven you can't be mafia but you really haven't "proven" anything. You could be mafia just as easily as anyone else sure it's a "less likely" tactic but I feel if there were ever a more convenient timing to use such tactics they would be now. One of the main problems with someone attacking someone else to seem mafia is that it draws attention from power roles. The problem is: nobody knows if any town investigative roles are still alive. Since we have two unknown deaths we can't assume they are alive. Therefore we must act as if they aren't in play and since the game has reached a point where many are side tracked by hunter, fewer are likely to question you making this an ideal time to use such tactics

A good point and very worth while to consider, but as hunter has proven he is ready to defend himself. I've picked apart his logic but it has forced me to go all in. Besides Annso and a bit of naughtykitten, I haven't seen anyone step up to the plate, so it might have been as I predicted if wasn't willing to keep my foot in the door, and I've yet to hear any arguments from anyone else on other leads other than a couple murmurs about lynching inactives. Alpha died last night so and I would have used a totally different argument against him. I would also ask if you have a better idea of who to lynch than please tell us.

I also wouldn't delude myself and say I'm proven not mafia, even for the time being. I've just reached the conclusion we have four options and I consider it to our only four for the time being.

1. No lynch
2. Vote Road
3. Vote Hunter
4. Scrape up new evidence, accuse and lynch someone else.

I wouldn't count on option 4, and option 1 is just dumb. As I've said before, I could be scum, but my play style is inconsistent. Its the very principal of glory or gallows, I have invested all of my reputation on this vote. If I am scum and hunter is innocent than I'm dead and I would be taking that risk knowing it would kill me, and without guarantee I would be able to lynch him. People are too divided for me to claim oops I was wrong, and as my main defensive argument says, its a risky gamble with little pay off assuming I'm scum.

 

[cooliorules]

We don't always have mountains of evidence, and with last nights spy visit I'm hard pressed to think of any day in all of blocktopia mafia history which applies more than today. But here is what I thought when I read our last day

1. Hmm, everyone posting hypothetical about last night.
2. Ltins suggestion is kinda weird but oh well.
3. Really he's getting votes for a suggested hypothetical, no way this will get out of hand.
4. I get back this game tomorrow.
5. NO WAY! There will be hell to pay tomorrow alpha!
6. Oh he died, well who else pushed that ridiculous bandwagon.

Than a that after all that we drew a blank! Seriously no discussion after that fiasco?!? So yeah, I'll stick with my gut. If no one is gonna say anything about that vote than I will! I think hunter is partially responsible and I'm gonna vote him for it.

And to those that are voting for me, I realize I must be coming off pretty hot. But if you think I'm scum because I'm pushing a vote on hunter than remember I've played more than a couple games of mafia. I hosted a season with a very successful mafia so I know who a good mafia runs, if I were in a the mafia would I so easily throw my life away on one kill. ONE KILL I would know would turn up damning? Maybe later in the game but never this soon. It does not make sense to kamikaze this early in the game. So if you don't think I'm right fine, but ask yourself this "If I was mafia would this make sense to me"? I think you'll find this is a really bad tactic if you knew it would kill you, especially if you weren't sure you could get the kill.

That's what we think, and you would know that, and would assume that's what we're thinking, so then we'd think that you are mafia trying to play our heads in and bam WIFOM loop.
Reading through stuff

 

[Nottykitten]

One other thing that's bothering me. You're starting a lynch on hunter then claiming you can't be mafia because a Mafia wouldn't start a lynch since it would attract attention.

However wouldn't this logic also apply to both hunter and alpha? I hate it when people use wifom loops only when it is advantageous for them.

Wifom loops are wifom loops. There is no way of knowing which side of the loop is happening. So people will have to decide wether to believe one side of the wifom loop is happening or another. So I think you can use wifom loops in your arguments. It's all about what side of the wifom loop you think is happening.

 

[The Road to Ruin]

We don't always have mountains of evidence, and with last nights spy visit I'm hard pressed to think of any day in all of blocktopia mafia history which applies more than today. But here is what I thought when I read our last day

1. Hmm, everyone posting hypothetical about last night.
2. Ltins suggestion is kinda weird but oh well.
3. Really he's getting votes for a suggested hypothetical, no way this will get out of hand.
4. I get back this game tomorrow.
5. NO WAY! There will be hell to pay tomorrow alpha!
6. Oh he died, well who else pushed that ridiculous bandwagon.

Than a that after all that we drew a blank! Seriously no discussion after that fiasco?!? So yeah, I'll stick with my gut. If no one is gonna say anything about that vote than I will! I think hunter is partially responsible and I'm gonna vote him for it.

And to those that are voting for me, I realize I must be coming off pretty hot. But if you think I'm scum because I'm pushing a vote on hunter than remember I've played more than a couple games of mafia. I hosted a season with a very successful mafia so I know who a good mafia runs, if I were in a the mafia would I so easily throw my life away on one kill. ONE KILL I would know would turn up damning? Maybe later in the game but never this soon. It does not make sense to kamikaze this early in the game. So if you don't think I'm right fine, but ask yourself this "If I was mafia would this make sense to me"? I think you'll find this is a really bad tactic if you knew it would kill you, especially if you weren't sure you could get the kill.

That's what we think, and you would know that, and would assume that's what we're thinking, so then we'd think that you are mafia trying to play our heads in and bam WIFOM loop.
Reading through stuff

Again, Neon camo + Glory or gallows = Unlikely

This might have worked but more than enough people have picked up the possibility and far too few people are on board for that to work. I'm dead if this doesn't work, your comment is in a way evidence I'm not attempting any logic loops.

 

[GmK]

Amazing WIFOM!

Road, you asked us that had already voted if we wanted to change or stick with our vote. I will stick with my vote, I still feel that the sudden push on hunter, that at first wasn't justified with any reasoning, ended up being more scummy in my eyes than anything hunter has done before that. The WIFOM is now only repeating the same basic logic arguments, that don't change the initial actions.

At the end of the day, probably both of you are town and the actual scum is laughing their asses off behind our backs...

 

[Jivvi]

I hope you all are reading these; these are a perfect breakdown of the situation

 

[Jivvi]

Amazing WIFOM!

Road, you asked us that had already voted if we wanted to change or stick with our vote. I will stick with my vote, I still feel that the sudden push on hunter, that at first wasn't justified with any reasoning, ended up being more scummy in my eyes than anything hunter has done before that. The WIFOM is now only repeating the same basic logic arguments, that don't change the initial actions.

At the end of the day, probably both of you are town and the actual scum is laughing their asses off behind our backs...

I'm glad I'm not the only one who saw it

 

[Jivvi]

One other thing that's bothering me. You're starting a lynch on hunter then claiming you can't be mafia because a Mafia wouldn't start a lynch since it would attract attention.

However wouldn't this logic also apply to both hunter and alpha? I hate it when people use wifom loops only when it is advantageous for them.

Wifom loops are wifom loops. There is no way of knowing which side of the loop is happening. So people will have to decide wether to believe one side of the wifom loop is happening or another. So I think you can use wifom loops in your arguments. It's all about what side of the wifom loop you think is happening.

Also, as my third fragmented post, WIFOM loops have no place in any argument, unless you're trying to cause confusion through them. Like Notty said, there's no way of knowing which side of the loop's happening, so the best you can do it forget the loop entirely and find other pieces of evidence to work off.

 

[Nottykitten]

One other thing that's bothering me. You're starting a lynch on hunter then claiming you can't be mafia because a Mafia wouldn't start a lynch since it would attract attention.

However wouldn't this logic also apply to both hunter and alpha? I hate it when people use wifom loops only when it is advantageous for them.

Wifom loops are wifom loops. There is no way of knowing which side of the loop is happening. So people will have to decide wether to believe one side of the wifom loop is happening or another. So I think you can use wifom loops in your arguments. It's all about what side of the wifom loop you think is happening.

Also, as my third fragmented post, WIFOM loops have no place in any argument, unless you're trying to cause confusion through them. Like Notty said, there's no way of knowing which side of the loop's happening, so the best you can do it forget the loop entirely and find other pieces of evidence to work off.

But you can have an idea what is happening, and follow up on that.