TBD [Status: GAME OVER]
- Thread starter GmK
- Start date
Well so long as I get my target (assuming I haven't already) that's not important to me. I can still hope I get lie detected.
On the subject of anti-town approximation, this is about ho w my thought process went:
We started with 24 people and what seems to be 2 mafia teams. Bloody Masquerade also had 2 mafia teams and 25 people, with 4 per team. So logically, I figure that the mafia teams likely started with 4 each, which if that's true, then there are a total of 6 mafia members left, 3 per team, as one from each team has died so far.
Then there's the cult. With our third odd night so far, the max number of recruited cultists would be 3. Since the cult had to have started with one or two people and one cultist died, then there's a potential maximum of 3-4 cultists out there too. Though this number is much less certain, for there could of been roleblocking, their target may have died the same night, and so on, so the only 'certain' thing is that I think there's at least one alive, unless Duffie had managed to get roleblocked n1 and was the only original cultist (which noone has mentioned roleblocking Duffie in this game, so I'm assuming that didn't happen).
So long story short, I believe that we likely have a minimum of 7 anti-town members alive (6 if one of the mafia is the only cult member alive, but this is, statistically, highly unlikely). Which means that we are witnessing a battle between 3 different anti-town factions that probably outnumber us already =/
Now, onto random thoughts/a theory about Jolt.
I'll start with Jolt, since he is the first one on my mind. If I read correctly, he has basically claimed third-party with the ability to guarantee a kill every 5th night (4 prep, one kill, correct?). So how does this make any sense? A serial killer role wouldn't make sense, he can't kill often enough to secure victory easily enough. Maybe a tweaked survivor role (If he really is third-party, this would be my best bet), but what if he was not third party? Remember how Jkang had originally claimed to be protective of third-party since he 'needed' them alive to win? (Which apparently isn't true) Well what if he claimed third-party to try and get support from more people? A 3p role that kills this slowly doesn't make a lot of sense to me, unless it's a mafia-role trying to hide as third-party. It is just a theory for right now, and I'm throwing it out there to see what you guys think of it. Also, I don't think I've seen anything about whom Jolt tried to kill last night? Unless I've missed something, why would a pro-town person not tell us this by now?
I was originally going more thoughts after this about other people, but I have to go work on other stuff.
We started with 24 people and what seems to be 2 mafia teams. Bloody Masquerade also had 2 mafia teams and 25 people, with 4 per team. So logically, I figure that the mafia teams likely started with 4 each, which if that's true, then there are a total of 6 mafia members left, 3 per team, as one from each team has died so far.
Then there's the cult. With our third odd night so far, the max number of recruited cultists would be 3. Since the cult had to have started with one or two people and one cultist died, then there's a potential maximum of 3-4 cultists out there too. Though this number is much less certain, for there could of been roleblocking, their target may have died the same night, and so on, so the only 'certain' thing is that I think there's at least one alive, unless Duffie had managed to get roleblocked n1 and was the only original cultist (which noone has mentioned roleblocking Duffie in this game, so I'm assuming that didn't happen).
So long story short, I believe that we likely have a minimum of 7 anti-town members alive (6 if one of the mafia is the only cult member alive, but this is, statistically, highly unlikely). Which means that we are witnessing a battle between 3 different anti-town factions that probably outnumber us already =/
Now, onto random thoughts/a theory about Jolt.
I'll start with Jolt, since he is the first one on my mind. If I read correctly, he has basically claimed third-party with the ability to guarantee a kill every 5th night (4 prep, one kill, correct?). So how does this make any sense? A serial killer role wouldn't make sense, he can't kill often enough to secure victory easily enough. Maybe a tweaked survivor role (If he really is third-party, this would be my best bet), but what if he was not third party? Remember how Jkang had originally claimed to be protective of third-party since he 'needed' them alive to win? (Which apparently isn't true) Well what if he claimed third-party to try and get support from more people? A 3p role that kills this slowly doesn't make a lot of sense to me, unless it's a mafia-role trying to hide as third-party. It is just a theory for right now, and I'm throwing it out there to see what you guys think of it. Also, I don't think I've seen anything about whom Jolt tried to kill last night? Unless I've missed something, why would a pro-town person not tell us this by now?
I was originally going more thoughts after this about other people, but I have to go work on other stuff.
idk what to do
i know JK is lying about win condition
only way to prove is JK's death which probs wont happen through a lynch
mafia pls deal with JK for me or avenge me if im lynched JK is close to winning
not gonna do much today
all i can say is lynch someone random and i'll hope they are cult
so yeah im not really going to do anything today because i cant really trust anyone considering im one of the few who aren't mafia/cult
if im lynched then that's a shame you guys lose anti cult pr
even mafia need someone to take out cult for them
they way i see it i can be handy to both sides (except cult, i want them dead) but other than that im not worth lynching/killing to anybody (i hope)
i know JK is lying about win condition
only way to prove is JK's death which probs wont happen through a lynch
mafia pls deal with JK for me or avenge me if im lynched JK is close to winning
not gonna do much today
all i can say is lynch someone random and i'll hope they are cult
so yeah im not really going to do anything today because i cant really trust anyone considering im one of the few who aren't mafia/cult
if im lynched then that's a shame you guys lose anti cult pr
even mafia need someone to take out cult for them
they way i see it i can be handy to both sides (except cult, i want them dead) but other than that im not worth lynching/killing to anybody (i hope)
CaffeinatedKitty
Intoxicated Feline
Well can you explain to us HOW you know jk is lying? You've had a very sharp turn in playstyle that looks rather like you're panicking. And considering the fact you're trying to use your role claim to convince us not to lynch you... Well, we won't know if you're lying until you're dead, but it seems quite likely to me.
JKangaroo
Your Local, Neighborhood Marsupial
Or it could easily be proven if Mad wanted to by using the lie detection power, so that's another way.
And anyways, we still can't understand anything unless you explain it to us.
Like how am I close to winning? And if I was, why would that even matter if I'm third party since third party wins don't even matter in the larger scale as they don't end the game, they just win should they complete their win condition, but the game still goes on until either the Mafia or Town win.
So I would frankly like some explanations.
Plus I doubt we're even going to be close to a lynch yet, as there's still so much we could discuss, and currently are as far as I can tell.
At the present time we're just jumping at conclusions, and I still stand by the idea that, even though the cult is important, there is literally no way (except you if your role truly is what it is) to determine who the cult is, townies should be focusing on weening out the Mafia by collecting as much information as possible, and making an educated vote on whatever turns up.
For example:
-We're still waiting on Jolt's answer in terms of whom he actually used the bomb on, as at the moment its still an anomaly in terms of information (or even questions like why hes left out said information/responded about it even after being asked)
-We could ask you about whom you protected or investigated last night (as I recall you did claim you could investigate/protect and use that module I gave you on the same night) Plus the investigation on Defiant could probably use with some clearing up or better explanation since it's just strange imo.
-Ender and Sam could possibly claim as well seeing as they're the only 2 remaining who haven't claimed if I remember right (maybe Sam said something before? I don't remember)
-There's the situation with catgirl who recently cleared up her role, and what we can infer from it and Defiant and past events.
-Like Caff said, we can look back to see who likes to vote 3ps and not Mafia which could lead to possible leads or lead to people possibly lying, as I'm certain there has to be some claims or alignments which are fake.
-We can list the current living players like yesterday and explain our feelings or thoughts on them to get a better picture of things...
And etc, etc etc.
And hey, we don't even know if you are telling the truth.
Caff probably was a doctor, at least from what I'm inferring from tim's death that Caff did do something. I can't say about after that but that could be said for basically every single one of us here.
Whose to say anyone else hasn't been cultified, like Mad who we trust to be the lie detector, or ender whose been "not guilty" by Notty for days now but we know basically nothing else about.
Knowledge is power.
So getting whatever information we can to make better and informed decisions is what we should be doing, cause if things are just going to get more confusing it doesn't really help anyone's case except those trying to slip through the cracks.
JKangaroo
Your Local, Neighborhood Marsupial
Here are some things I find strange with the information we currently have:
...
I had a few more things but I don't remember them >.<
It's almost 1:30 am so I should probably head to bed, maybe ill remember tomorrow.
- Let's start with Defiant. He claims to have been the one who killed Alpha because Alpha voted him which is a result of his role as the "Vigilante" which would explain 1 of the deaths on N1(cat claims to have been away and did not use her role to kill Alpha because of that) We can assume that myuser died after visiting Digi, who was Mafia, which is the 2nd death. I would lastly assume that the 3rd death, either Hunter's or midnights, was probably by the Mafia, which is the 3rd death. Who killed the 4th person then? From what Jolt claimed his bombs started at 0% and he can't use it once it reaches 100% (which is a bit weird in its own right), so who then? Was there a day 1 item? Or is there someone else who kills?
- There's still something I find off about road, mainly from yesterday, as I still say he seems to know quite a bit more about the cult then everyone else seems to know (for example: his statement that we've seen someone loose their role after being converted, which I must ask, who, and when, did we see this? I again point to Duffie who is the only person we've confirmed and actually have seen as apart of the cult, and we know nothing else. We could guess based on her actions with Alpha Day 1, but there's nothing concrete there).
- What up with the Mafia deaths? I can't have been the only one who's noticed.
In both cases of Digi's and Coolio's deaths neither has revealed their roles while everyone else has. Why is that? Is it a special rule GmK put into place that we don't know about, or maybe someone is alive that is hiding that power (like that mortician(?) role that after dying hides roles, i dont know), or some other possibility?
Plus what's the difference between Digi's Sexy Mafiaso member, and Coolio just being "Mafia member." It hints that there could be multiple Mafia teams like Masquerade, since it's certainly a possibility, but it still is strange, mainly because of their names.
Why is Coolio merely "Mafia member" when Digi's is so much more descriptive? If there WERE 2 factions shouldn't she have also had some kind of name to it? I feel like its out of place for there to be a "sexy Mafiaso" and just a "mafia."
I have a personal theory about this one: I feel like, based on what has occurred so far in terms of discussion, Digi's different death name, and from what road has said, I feel like Coolio actually WAS converted into the cult, and converted players end up showing their old alignment upon death, which would probably be a perk to keep the cult hidden? I don't know since there's not a lot to support this theory.
...
I had a few more things but I don't remember them >.<
It's almost 1:30 am so I should probably head to bed, maybe ill remember tomorrow.
You know why I'm suspicious of you JK and you can get me off your back real easy if you simply explained. It's mainly the fact that you're choosing to not even acknowledge that my current theory on you could be plausible for me with the information I have.
Also your investigation power showed Defiant to be mafia, not sure why you're confused there I thought I cleared that up.
Also your investigation power showed Defiant to be mafia, not sure why you're confused there I thought I cleared that up.
CaffeinatedKitty
Intoxicated Feline
So... You're kind of like a serial killer... That takes six nights to kill someone.
Really now?
And 77, you're buying time as well, by- *ahem*- not answering the question that's being asked of you.
How do you know that JK's lying and why are you being sent into such a frenzy?
Really now?
And 77, you're buying time as well, by- *ahem*- not answering the question that's being asked of you.
How do you know that JK's lying and why are you being sent into such a frenzy?
He said he can't not use, which means he would have HAD to have used it last night. The fact that he says he's using it tomrrow is contradictory to this since it should of been finished n4 and usable n5, at least according to his roleclaim.
Defiant_Blob
(￣^￣)ゞ
The town is at a big disadvantage right now :X
Against mafia AND cultist. They're coming close to winning.
And at a rate of only one lynch per day? Unless mafia starts targeting cultist, cult is going to win.
Against mafia AND cultist. They're coming close to winning.
And at a rate of only one lynch per day? Unless mafia starts targeting cultist, cult is going to win.
Enderfive
sarcasm incarnate
Not lynching third-parties, such as the cult?
If Caff is telling the truth, yes, lynching Jolt would be a bad decision.
So all time spent on trying to find anyone but mafia is wasted time? I think not. Looks to me like you have nothing against the cult winning, either.
I personally believe that even if they might be against the town, they're not cult. Road gave a very clear sentence yesterday to be lie detected, I don't think he would've done it if he was lying there. 77... well, I hold no promise here, but there are other people in my mind for the place of the cult.
You didn't read correctly, or I didn't. The way I understood it was that he had to warm up his ability for four nights and could start killing on either the fourth or the fifth (won't bother to check back for such fine detail right now).
How?
Can't speak for Sam, but my claiming would serve no purpose but to give the cult and the mafia more information which I'd rather not give them, as well as to clear me even further, which I don't find necessary right now. I seriously doubt my claim would spark useful discussion.
I am not part of the cult or the mafia. Mia can detect that sentence if she wants, although I think there are better people to investigate than me.
Interesting theory, I actually think you might be spot on with this. This could also mean that if Coolio was recruited into the cult, she also kept her place in the mafia, only switched alignments, like Alpha did in the Doomed Cruise (which was also a GmK game, might be worth to note). This would mean that people recruited into the cult keep their old roles.
What theory? I've still not got a single clue as to why you think Jk suspicious.
And your win condition would be...?
I'd like to propose the theory that Caff (and possibly Jk) is cult. As 77 said (in one of his more understandable posts lately), it is likely that the cult would have wanted to get their hands on the doctor. Assuming 77 is who he says he is and hasn't protected Caff from being recruited, it would make sense that she has been recruited. If 77 isn't who he says he is, then it'd still make sense. Also, note how Caff seems to favor lynching 77 (who has claimed an anti-cult role).
The reason I suspect both Caff and Jk is the fact that they both seem to favour lynching mafia over cult. Why? The cult is as big a threat to the town's victory as the mafia is (since I'm fairly sure the cult winning would mean loss to the town as well as the mafia). We've lynched two mafia, I think it's time we took out a cultist as well, if we could find one. I said earlier to be wary of anything Jk says about the cult, since he'd need them alive to have a better chance at winning. That was according to his old claim. What if he'd been recruited by the time he made that claim and only made it so he'd have some better reason to defend the 3Ps?
Another reason to suspect Jk is 77's ramblings about him. Not that they make much sense, sure, but assuming 77 is who he says he is, his distress towards Jk could be explained by him investigating Jk with his role ability and it saying Jk is cult.
Now, let's say for a moment that my guess about Caff was correct and she is a cultist. What would that make Jolt? She claims to have protected him and she also claims he was hit. If my theory about Caff is correct, the most logical conclusion would be that Jolt is the newest recruit of the cult, and the mafia tried to kill him, but Caff intercepted. I don't think Caff would waste her powers on someone she knew wasn't a part of her team, and if she's a cultist, then it'd mean Jolt is also a cultist.
Shaky theories at best, but I've said it and it's up to you to ponder about it.
As for mafia, they could be anyone. 77 could be mafia. Jolt could be mafia, anyone could. I don't see any particularly strong mafia-vibes coming off anyone, to be fair. My best bets to vote would still be 77 or Jolt.
Can we like lynch Defiant, there's absolutely no reason for me to be lying here with that, we have a confirmed mafia. Is there any way/reason I could be lying?
And it's driving me mad but I canttttttt say what it is about JK, the only way is JKs death or JK saying it himself.
And it's driving me mad but I canttttttt say what it is about JK, the only way is JKs death or JK saying it himself.