The Bastard Game: Day 5

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Guest35486

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Arelics response was also weird to me - it was essentially "well I'm sure some on that list are Mafia but for me it's wrong!", almost as if she's preparing for when oak/Ltin flip Mafia as opposed to being dead set on it being wrong and looking defensive when someone flips. Arelic why did you find it likely that some on that list were Mafia, even though, from your perspective, the list wasn't accurate? Just seems off again.
Put yourself in my situation: if you were called mafia in a list of people when you're town, what else would you say?

Statistically, it's pretty unlikely no one's mafia in that last. I stated what everyone had in common, which came down to pretty much ratings, vibes, and inactivity. Stating that it's outright wrong didn't feel right to me because I thought your theory had some credibility to it. Jivvi had been silent ever since your post, and the next post was to deflect your argument. While everyone on that list have been inactive for their own reasons, including myself, I wouldn't just consider them confirmed. It's good that you got such a lead, but I'm hesitant to just go down the list in case we miss obvious clues. You said that you took Vatumok off the maybe-list later on, but he never got more active or helpful. In fact, I'm rather confused regarding that decision. I can see why Ltin is suspicious but I'm not sure about my read on Oak since he's been pretty inactive, but so has several people. Not to say that the inactivity isn't suspicious, but that I don't have anything beyond that.

Meanwhile while we wait for vat/oak, can

1) The person who wrote that hip is innocent please come forward if it's about Ltin (re-asking this to make sure they see it)
Why are you so confident someone wrote this message? It might be a game mechanic, whether through a pool of messages/players or a report from the host. Also, I doubt the person who wrote it will come forward if it is from a PR since they phrased it anonymously. I don't know how they would receive additional information that hip is innocent if they already have the message role. (Cop + messenger?) If this is from Ltin, who could be the mafia messsenger, perhaps his role is hip? But it's rather irrelevant now since apparently we all bypass the mechanic.

I find it so strange that we all bypass suddenly, because at just day 2 the flavour names seem to be irrelevant.
Maybe either/both Unu and Jivvi cause the bypass mechanic due to their roles. Since both of them died, everyone gains the ability instead of a slow reveal like it seemed to start out as? No idea how likely this is, but just throwing it out there I guess.
 

Infected_alien8_

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Statistically, it's pretty unlikely no one's mafia in that last.
Why? 3/17 or 3/14 if you take away me/notty and Jivvi as assumed town in that scenarion, is a pretty small likelihood for Mafia to be in there, so why did you say you were sure some people were Mafia on the list? I don't really understand what you mean.

Put yourself in my situation: if you were called mafia in a list of people when you're town, what else would you say?

Statistically, it's pretty unlikely no one's mafia in that last. I stated what everyone had in common, which came down to pretty much ratings, vibes, and inactivity. Stating that it's outright wrong didn't feel right to me because I thought your theory had some credibility to it. Jivvi had been silent ever since your post, and the next post was to deflect your argument. While everyone on that list have been inactive for their own reasons, including myself, I wouldn't just consider them confirmed.
But why do you think Jivvi's list had some credibility to it, when your own knowledge of your own role supposedly proved that Jivvi was lying? Idk, if I was on that list and was town, the natural conclusion I'd originally jump to would be "well jivvi was obviously lying about his mafia partners and trying to get townies lynched, so I'm not about to trust any of the other names on that list". Did you think maybe he lied about some and told the truth about others to hope that we mislynched one who was town and then considered the rest to probably be town too or something, even though they were Mafia, or something?

While everyone on that list have been inactive for their own reasons, including myself, I wouldn't just consider them confirmed.
I agree, I don't consider you/oak/ltin 'confirmed' at all, but I see you as most likely to be Mafia at this point, especially Ltin after his claim which basically makes it so he's either Mafia or ridiculously unlucky this game.

It's good that you got such a lead, but I'm hesitant to just go down the list in case we miss obvious clues.
I agree that we shouldn't just close ourselves off to other potential scum, we should still poke each other and keep an eye out for others, but we also have to go with our most solid lead, as always, and that's the list, so until something else more solid comes up, I'd advocating for using the list.

Why are you so confident someone wrote this message? It might be a game mechanic, whether through a pool of messages/players or a report from the host.
It just seems most likely to me that it's something written by someone, because there aren't really any alternatives that I can think of that are realistic. I don't see the host getting involved in the game and posting a report like that, because the essense of Mafia is that the players use their roles and communication to work through the game, so to have just a host-induced confirmed inno would ruin it and I doubt Ender did that. I also doubt that there would be some mechanic where someone visits someone and their allignment is posted for all to see because that's OP - cops are balanced because they have to expose themselves in order to make themselves useful, and there's always the chance they're lying because noone can see their PM, and thus Mafia can have a chance to CC, and people can be skeptical of trusting reports. Plus, we already had a cop, and I don't think it'd be balanced for there to be a second cop who not only acts as yet another investigative role in this already rather heavy investigative setup, but one which can post their result for all to see without claiming. And the whole flavor of it being a notice makes sense to be written by someone, and I've seen roles like that before where people can write messages as notices so it'd make sense as to where Ender got the idea from.

Also, I doubt the person who wrote it will come forward if it is from a PR since they phrased it anonymously.
Well, they should, because they'd save us from mislynching and we don't know if that's going to be seriously winorlose detrimental to town because we don't know for sure how many mafia are left, or how many deaths there can be in one night. Plus we very likely have a doctor so they can be protected. But I don' think anyone's going to come forward because I think it's someone who's anti-town and can't justify why 'hipman500 is innocent'.

I don't know how they would receive additional information that hip is innocent if they already have the message role. (Cop + messenger?)
Exactly, which is why I don't think they can be cop, and thus they're lying when they say hip is innocent.

If this is from Ltin, who could be the mafia messsenger, perhaps his role is hip?
Ltin's name is hip, yeah

You said that you took Vatumok off the maybe-list later on, but he never got more active or helpful. In fact, I'm rather confused regarding that decision. gains the ability instead of a slow reveal like it seemed to start out as? No idea how likely this is, but just throwing it out there I guess.
Vatumok was never on the same Mafia list as you guys - you guys are on the list because Jivvi signalled you, Vat was on a seperate list as a bonus Mafia suspicion I had, not because he was inactive but primarily because Jivvi seemed to be reluctant to kill him n1 when I suggested we did, which I then realized wasn't exactly true:

When I was paraphrasing the chat, I realized that my memory is at fault here because I only asked to kill vat once, then Jivvi didn't respond but this was all very tight time-wise and people kept sending messages without reading the latest one so it's possible he didn't see it, he then made a post, and then I immediately asked again if we could kill vat or someone else, and he agreed. So it wasn't like I kept suggesting it and he kept ignoring me, so this point is pretty invalid now, and the fact I never got signalled about Vat makes me think he's not Mafia. I still think he's probably third party or something though.

To make it clearer how it happened (this is EXTREMELY paraphrased btw but just so you get the order of things)

Inf: kill vat not notty
jivvi: <responds to previous post before mine>
inf: kill vat or anyone else just not notty
jivvi: okay
I still think he's scummy because of his responses/lack of responsiveness but I find it more likely he's third party.
 
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Guest35486

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Why? 3/17 or 3/14 if you take away me/notty and Jivvi as assumed town in that scenarion, is a pretty small likelihood for Mafia to be in there, so why did you say you were sure some people were Mafia on the list? I don't really understand what you mean.
I didn't really do the math but I thought it was likely for there to be at least one mafia on the list, including Vatumok, especially since everyone was pretty much inactive.
But why do you think Jivvi's list had some credibility to it, when your own knowledge of your own role supposedly proved that Jivvi was lying? Idk, if I was on that list and was town, the natural conclusion I'd originally jump to would be "well jivvi was obviously lying about his mafia partners and trying to get townies lynched, so I'm not about to trust any of the other names on that list". Did you think maybe he lied about some and told the truth about others to hope that we mislynched one who was town and then considered the rest to probably be town too or something, even though they were Mafia, or something?
I didn't acknowledge Jivvi's list. I said I thought your theory had some credibility, since it was a combination of Jivvi's list, inactivity, and vibes. I'm pretty sure I mentioned in my previous post that I thought Jivvi is just rating posts for both town and mafia since it seems unlikely that 1) he thought enough about framing people through rating posts to you or 2) that he outed his entire team just because you claimed you're a mafia member not in the night chat. Because to be honest, the latter is a bit sad?
It just seems most likely to me that it's something written by someone, because there aren't really any alternatives that I can think of that are realistic. I don't see the host getting involved in the game and posting a report like that, because the essense of Mafia is that the players use their roles and communication to work through the game, so to have just a host-induced confirmed inno would ruin it and I doubt Ender did that. I also doubt that there would be some mechanic where someone visits someone and their allignment is posted for all to see because that's OP - cops are balanced because they have to expose themselves in order to make themselves useful, and there's always the chance they're lying because noone can see their PM, and thus Mafia can have a chance to CC, and people can be skeptical of trusting reports. Plus, we already had a cop, and I don't think it'd be balanced for there to be a second cop who not only acts as yet another investigative role in this already rather heavy investigative setup, but one which can post their result for all to see without claiming. And the whole flavor of it being a notice makes sense to be written by someone, and I've seen roles like that before where people can write messages as notices so it'd make sense as to where Ender got the idea from.
I know that this is likely, but I don't want to put this as completely confirmed, that's all. I found it odd that someone who gets to post a public anonymous message would put forth something like this. But yeah, I see where you're coming from with the claim.
Vatumok was never on the same Mafia list as you guys - you guys are on the list because Jivvi signalled you, Vat was on a seperate list as a bonus Mafia suspicion I had, not because he was inactive but primarily because Jivvi seemed to be reluctant to kill him n1 when I suggested we did, which I then realized wasn't exactly true:


I still think he's scummy because of his responses/lack of responsiveness but I find it more likely he's third party.
I know you put him on a different list, hence the "maybe-list," but why specifically 3rd-party? I don't know if I'm missing anything here.
 

Ltin

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So Inf, you never considered that maybe the posting of the message was a side effect of Notty dying?
Think about it. I was already many people's prime suspect before that Jivvi nonsense, and then afterward I show up on your "list".
If I were to show up town that would blow a hole in your theory pretty quickly (hey look I did).

Basically I personally feel I am confirmed town and you have tunnel vision.
 

Infected_alien8_

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I didn't acknowledge Jivvi's list. I said I thought your theory had some credibility, since it was a combination of Jivvi's list, inactivity, and vibes.
Well what I meant was that you seemed to believe that Jivvi's list could be true for some people, even though it wasn't for you - but I think you're trying to say that you didn't think he was rating them with any signals in mind and that you just thought it was likely he randomly got a mafia member on that list?

Also what do you mean that you think my theory had credibility yet didn't think Jivvi's list meant anything? My theory was that Jivvi's list meant something, so those two sentences can't both be true, unless I'm misunderstanding you? Why would Jivvi's list have contributed to you thinking I was right about ltin/oak, even though you thought the list was wrong?
I'm pretty sure I mentioned in my previous post that I thought Jivvi is just rating posts for both town and mafia since it seems unlikely that 1) he thought enough about framing people through rating posts to you or 2) that he outed his entire team just because you claimed you're a mafia member not in the night chat. Because to be honest, the latter is a bit sad?
Okay but the posts he rated made no sense to disagree with other than disagreeing with the suspicion of certain people - why would he disagree with suspicion on certain people, without giving any reasoning ever, limiting his opti0ns for who he could deflect suspicion onto to save his own skin? I just don't see how it could have been just random or him not wanting to signal me (either to trick me or to tell me the truth).

I know that this is likely, but I don't want to put this as completely confirmed, that's all. I found it odd that someone who gets to post a public anonymous message would put forth something like this. But yeah, I see where you're coming from with the claim.
Same, if this person truly had a way of knowing hip was inno you'd think they'd explain why in this little notice of theirs. I guess it's possible they only have X amount of words but for the reasons I said before I find it highly unlikely we have yet another investigative mechanic, and such an OP one as that.

I know you put him on a different list, hence the "maybe-list," but why specifically 3rd-party? I don't know if I'm missing anything here.
Because I find him suspicious but I didn't get a signal for him being Mafia so he's probably the other anti-town faction, third party.

So Inf, you never considered that maybe the posting of the message was a side effect of Notty dying?
Think about it. I was already many people's prime suspect before that Jivvi nonsense, and then afterward I show up on your "list".
If I were to show up town that would blow a hole in your theory pretty quickly (hey look I did).

Basically I personally feel I am confirmed town and you have tunnel vision.
Seems way too OP to have a cop's investigation made public to everyone upon their death. I don't see you as confirmed at all.
 

Infected_alien8_

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Actually no I'm going to add Hk, Oog and Rune to the inn, not Danni, since I still don't quite trust that his role only lets him convert to people who die on that night because it leaves it too likely for him to be without a win condition for the rest of the game and I think he might've converted into Jivvi yesterday and become Mafia (which would explain why he was creating so much friction today)
 

Danni122112

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I would really appreciate it if you would try to put me in the Inn, Inffy. It totally fucks with my role if you don’t, so I’d appreciate it.

If you literally put me on a disadvantage just because, don’t trust you, I can assure that if you decide to work against me, it will not be a benefit for you.
 

Iggish

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I would really appreciate it if you would try to put me in the Inn, Inffy. It totally fucks with my role if you don’t, so I’d appreciate it.

If you literally put me on a disadvantage just because, don’t trust you, I can assure that if you decide to work against me, it will not be a benefit for you.
Why is it back
d for you if you're not in the room?
 
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