Republic - Completed

[Sploorky]

do you support a notty lynch

I am fine with a notty lynch, but I am also open to an alternative if there is a better alternative

 

[Mooglie]

while gut tells me scrable is evil, fog is still pretty high on there too
i GIVE UP i will literally just sheep any option that doesnt involve notty being lynched now but it doesnt seem like thats likely to happen

vote fog, ender, fali, aqua

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I am fine with a notty lynch, but I am also open to an alternative if there is a better alternative

what is your opinion of danni

 

[Aqua]

s i g h

If I have 1 green apples and 4 red apples I have 20% green aples and 80% red apples or a ratio of 1:4

If I then take away the green apple what's the percentage total of red apples out of all the apples?

 

[Mooglie]

vote fog, ender, fali, aqua

elect fog, ender, fali, aqua

 

[Infected_alien8_]

s i g h

If I have 1 green apples and 4 red apples I have 20% green aples and 80% red apples or a ratio of 1:4

If I then take away the green apple what's the percentage total of red apples out of all the apples?

thats

not

how

it

worked

taking away from option a didnt add to option b

for the 1000th time

go

back

abnd

read

it

 

[Mooglie]

s i g h

If I have 1 green apples and 4 red apples I have 20% green aples and 80% red apples or a ratio of 1:4

If I then take away the green apple what's the percentage total of red apples out of all the apples?

except its not like one plan had 0.1% chance of working and the other had 99.9% working, it was one had 0.1% chance of working and one had 0.05% chance of working

 

[Aqua]

thats

not

how

it

worked

taking away from option a didnt add to option b

for the 1000th time

go

back

abnd

read

it

Link me the page <3

actually I need to start this essay so I won't be able to respond for a few hours or so but still, link me hun <3

 

[Unusual_Dood]

The calculations Notty did didn’t in any way show that going autocracy with massclaim was better than the other options. I can explain this if people want to.

 

[TheWeakGuy48_]

The calculations Notty did didn’t in any way show that going autocracy with massclaim was better than the other options. I can explain this if people want to.

sure thing

 

[TheWeakGuy48_]

Wait a minute... we should probably focus on the mafia game right now and not stupid math

 

[Aqua]

Wait a minute... we should probably focus on the mafia game right now and not stupid math

No we should,'t Unusual_Dood go for it dude

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Wait a tic


Jesus Christ, your math is fucked.

The 62% chance only applies to the initial first lynch.

For each town-sided kill required to end the game via this method, if we're going by chance, the probability would be as follows:

8/13 * 7/12 * 6/11 * 5/10 * 4/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 * 1/6 = 1/1287
This is about a 0.07777% chance of getting an antitown correctly every kill.

And what's the probability with the 26 pool as opposed to the 13

I feel like you're misinterpreting your own numbers. Your 0.08% chance was you calculating the likelyhood every single kill we make out of the pool of 13 citizens will be anti-town. Ofcourse the chance we get a Mafia every single time is neigh impossible. But if you want to argue with those numbers I can try that too with your situation of a pool of 26. I'm removing 2 people every night from the total for nightkills and 1 every day for an anti-town lynch. Chance of lynching an anti-town every single day with a pool of 26 suspects: 8/24 * 7/21 * 6/18 * 5/15 * 4/12 * 3/9* 2/6 * 1/3 = 0.00015241579%. By perspective my plan is 52488% more effective than yours if we're planning on getting an anti-town every single day. I've already pointed out how we lose if we make even 1 mislynch so in reality we would have to get an anti-town every single day meaning that 0.00015241579% chance is our chance of winning if we don't do something about our 1 lynch vs their 2-3 kills. I know you've already said you wanted to turn to dictatorship too but remember, as long as the dictator/assassin don't kill people we're still stuck with our 1 mere lynch while the Mafia twindle our numbers down significantly beyond repair. And without some form of massclaim the dictator and assassin would be shooting blind.

That said this is not really the statistic we should look at because we're never going go get a Mafia every single day and it also doesn't factor in reads/town PR results. Our PR's are utterly useless though, only the tracker is a good PR and the subversive under autocracy. Remember that the watcher can't even find out Mafia kills because '[BCOLOR=transparent]This night action will fail if the watched player dies.[/BCOLOR]'.

I have another post planned trying to explain my logic of how we have 0 mislynches better and adding more scenarios but I'm still working on it + I wanted it to be seperate from this post.

1st two quotes pg 8, then page 16 for the third

 

[Sploorky]

what is your opinion of danni

Feels town to me

 

[Infected_alien8_]

The calculations Notty did didn’t in any way show that going autocracy with massclaim was better than the other options. I can explain this if people want to.

we're not talking about massclaiming we're talking about democracy vs autocracy

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Feels town to me

why

 

[Infected_alien8_]

No we should,'t Unusual_Dood go for it dude

he already proved that, we accepted it, we didnt massclaim

this is irrelevant

 

[Infected_alien8_]

im done im going to study

 

[Mooglie]

why

tbh im not getting a strong sense of danni being mafia this game too just because hes playing differently but its not like outside the realms of possibility

 

[TheWeakGuy48_]

why

I mean, just look at the voting pattern, then you'll notice a pretty good reason for him to think Danni is town

 

[Sploorky]

why

Silly as it may sound, he just feels very upfront and honest. Like I read his post and I don't get any vibes that there may be some hidden motives, he just seems town.

Obviously I could be wrong but I would rather vote a lot of people over Danni

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Silly as it may sound, he just feels very upfront and honest. Like I read his post and I don't get any vibes that there may be some hidden motives, he just seems town.

Obviously I could be wrong but I would rather vote a lot of people over Danni

such as?

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I mean, just look at the voting pattern, then you'll notice a pretty good reason for him to think Danni is town

What do you mean?

 

[HKCaper]

s i g h

If I have 1 green apples and 4 red apples I have 20% green aples and 80% red apples or a ratio of 1:4

If I then take away the green apple what's the percentage total of red apples out of all the apples?

Wait a minute... we should probably focus on the mafia game right now and not stupid math

 

[Enderfive]

i think it's time to stop