Spaghetti Mafia - Game Complete

Status
Not open for further replies.

TehBrian

Member
Joined
Aug 29, 2018
Messages
4
Reaction score
53
Here's what I think.

It makes sense to Lynch for two reasons.

1. To Lynch. If this happens, there is a better chance of getting a mafia next day. Say 5 people are mafia and 5 people are villagers. 5:5 chance on getting either a villager or a mafia. If you get a mafia, good job. If you get a villager, then there is a 5:4 chance you'll get mafia the next day, which is a higher chance of getting a mafia. HOWEVER, if you actually think about it, this literally makes no sense since you're still losing a valuable villager. You're doing the mafia's work for them, and then they can get ANOTHER kill that same night. HOWEVER, there's also the upside of knowing who the villager was, which can give you a bit of insight. If they were militia, then some people who voted FOR them getting lynched are either lying or villagers. The opposite still holds true.

2. Not to Lynch. If this happens, you have no chance of getting a villager OR a militia. HOWEVER, this means the militia will very probably kill someone that night. If they do, it accomplishes the same thing ANYWAY, with a 5:4 chance you'll get mafia the next day, but again you're still losing a villager.

This means that if you Lynch randomly, you have a chance of killing a militia AND killing a villager, as the militia would kill it. However, you also have the chance to kill TWO villagers.

Really it's about loss prevention. Let's look at all the possibilities.

1: Lynch
Militia do NOT kill. We kill militia. - 5 Villagers : 3 Militia
Militia do NOT kill. We kill villager. - 4 Villagers : 5 Militia
Militia DO kill. We kill militia. - 4 Villagers : 4 Militia
Militia DO kill. We kill villager. - 3 Villagers : 5 Militia

2: Do not Lynch
Militia DO kill. - 4 Villagers : 5 Militia
Militia do NOT kill. - 5 Villagers : 5 Militia.

I'd say it's more likely militia do kill. As you can see, if we do not Lynch, we're losing a villager anyway. If we do Lynch, we have the chance of killing twice as many villagers as we would've before, or we have the chance of evening out the playing field by each losing one on their team.

However! We've been using 5 on each team, and this is wildly wrong. There's more Villagers than Militia. That means by not lynching, we lose one on our team. But BY lynching, we'll MOST LIKELY lose DOUBLE but we'll get insight onto why people voted and if they're bad/good/lying/idiots.

All in all I'd say it's super complicated and I'm not sure whether we should Lynch or not. I'm currently more moving with lynching the most suspicious since we're going to lose people anyway. But.. then again.. we'd most likely statistically kill two villagers instead of one if we Lynch.
 

Okx

Member
Donor
Joined
Sep 6, 2015
Messages
14
Reaction score
74
Here's what I think.

It makes sense to Lynch for two reasons.

1. To Lynch. If this happens, there is a better chance of getting a mafia next day. Say 5 people are mafia and 5 people are villagers. 5:5 chance on getting either a villager or a mafia. If you get a mafia, good job. If you get a villager, then there is a 5:4 chance you'll get mafia the next day, which is a higher chance of getting a mafia. HOWEVER, if you actually think about it, this literally makes no sense since you're still losing a valuable villager. You're doing the mafia's work for them, and then they can get ANOTHER kill that same night. HOWEVER, there's also the upside of knowing who the villager was, which can give you a bit of insight. If they were militia, then some people who voted FOR them getting lynched are either lying or villagers. The opposite still holds true.

2. Not to Lynch. If this happens, you have no chance of getting a villager OR a militia. HOWEVER, this means the militia will very probably kill someone that night. If they do, it accomplishes the same thing ANYWAY, with a 5:4 chance you'll get mafia the next day, but again you're still losing a villager.

This means that if you Lynch randomly, you have a chance of killing a militia AND killing a villager, as the militia would kill it. However, you also have the chance to kill TWO villagers.

Really it's about loss prevention. Let's look at all the possibilities.

1: Lynch
Militia do NOT kill. We kill militia. - 5 Villagers : 3 Militia
Militia do NOT kill. We kill villager. - 4 Villagers : 5 Militia
Militia DO kill. We kill militia. - 4 Villagers : 4 Militia
Militia DO kill. We kill villager. - 3 Villagers : 5 Militia

2: Do not Lynch
Militia DO kill. - 4 Villagers : 5 Militia
Militia do NOT kill. - 5 Villagers : 5 Militia.

I'd say it's more likely militia do kill. As you can see, if we do not Lynch, we're losing a villager anyway. If we do Lynch, we have the chance of killing twice as many villagers as we would've before, or we have the chance of evening out the playing field by each losing one on their team.

However! We've been using 5 on each team, and this is wildly wrong. There's more Villagers than Militia. That means by not lynching, we lose one on our team. But BY lynching, we'll MOST LIKELY lose DOUBLE but we'll get insight onto why people voted and if they're bad/good/lying/idiots.

All in all I'd say it's super complicated and I'm not sure whether we should Lynch or not. I'm currently more moving with lynching the most suspicious since we're going to lose people anyway. But.. then again.. we'd most likely statistically kill two villagers instead of one if we Lynch.
Yeah, I still don't get it. There's more scenarios where the numbers are favourable for the villagers, but those are less like as those where the mafia come out on top.
 

Okx

Member
Donor
Joined
Sep 6, 2015
Messages
14
Reaction score
74
We have a 30% chance of killing a mafia if we choose to lynch, and 70% chance of killing a town. If we don't lynch it's better than the 70% chance of killing a town. Statistically is it not favourable. However, you might be able to glean some information.
 

BetaPanda

Member
Joined
Apr 21, 2014
Messages
29
Reaction score
171
We might not be able to vote somebody till the day is over ‘cause half of the players here (including me) are in Europe and are probably sleeping thus some cannot vote , so i predict an unintended nolynch option will happen.

(writing this on phone)

also roobarb is lowkey gonna die tonight :(
 

BetaPanda

Member
Joined
Apr 21, 2014
Messages
29
Reaction score
171
It's not about the current statistics for the day, it's about being able to make more informed decisions for future days and ah crap are we actually going to no lynch after all that
actually alisha youre right, information is more important than the statistics-voting thing. thank you for bringing that up, my mind is more opened! :eek:

i’m going to no lynch for now, i’ll unvote if someone makes a statement zzzzz

*vote no lynch*
 

ChocoFox

Member
Mafia Host
Joined
May 10, 2014
Messages
88
Reaction score
343
I'll unvote Roob for now since I promised I'd do that once he claimed who he healed N1.

unvote

Okx still hasn't claimed who they watched N1. Can you do that please? It could become useful information later.

We have a 30% chance of killing a mafia if we choose to lynch, and 70% chance of killing a town. If we don't lynch it's better than the 70% chance of killing a town. Statistically is it not favourable. However, you might be able to glean some information.
Yeah but - even if we don't lynch as of right now the Mafia's still gonna win on Night 4, assuming the following situation.

[xtable]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td}A mislynch scenario today:
N1 - Mafia kills 1 Town (9-4)
D1 - Mislynch #1 (8-4)
N2 - Mafia kills 1 Town (7-4)
D2 - Mislynch #2 (6-4)
N3 - Mafia kills 1 Town (5-4)
D3 - Mislynch #3 (4-4){/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

[xtable]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td}A no-lynch scenario today:
N1 - Mafia kills 1 Town (9-4)
D1 - No lynch #1 (9-4)
N2 - Mafia kills 1 Town (8-4)
D2 - Mislynch #1 (7-4)
N3 - Mafia kills 1 Town (6-4)
D3 - Mislynch #2 (5-4)
N4 - Mafia kills 1 Town (4-4) [little control over this by the Town]{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

No-lynching today only pushes back the game by one cycle, not even one day. We're better of lynching today for the information.
 

ChocoFox

Member
Mafia Host
Joined
May 10, 2014
Messages
88
Reaction score
343
Rune - bringing up the possibility of there being a fool, not sure if he just wasn't paying attention to the thread and I slightly scumread him for that.

TehBrian - seems to be memeing with that post they made. Also slightly scumread with that but not sure what to make of it.

Aqua - has contributed to the thread so far but not sure what to make of it. No read.

Comp - I have a Town read on right now.

I'll go with a lynch on Rune until they claim their role at least.

vote Rune
 

ChocoFox

Member
Mafia Host
Joined
May 10, 2014
Messages
88
Reaction score
343
My gut says I can't trust you but I'm gonna leave it for now as Ender has rightly pointed out that it was an open setup, and that I stupidly assumed it was closed. Looking at it now, the theory doesn't even make sense as there's no role to even find out roles so ignore me entirely tbf.
This is just my gut feeling as of right now but Rune's post makes him suspect in my head. Even the clarification post is off to me since he doesn't really acknowledge the open set-up but I'm not sure what to make of it.

I suggest we vote him and see what he has to say with regards to his role claim and so on.

And of course we should get Okx to claim who they watched and if they saw anyone visiting that person today. We don't know if Okx will get killed tonight.
 

TehBrian

Member
Joined
Aug 29, 2018
Messages
4
Reaction score
53
Some questions.

1. What's scum read?
2. What is a closed game?
3. What is an open game?
4. What is the meaning of life?

Also, Aqua just seems a bit.. odd. But I think we're going to end up no lynching anyway. But either way, like many including myself have pointed out, NOT lynching only pushes the game back ONE CYCLE. However, whether we Lynch or no Lynch, I believe we still get information on who died, correct?
 

ChocoFox

Member
Mafia Host
Joined
May 10, 2014
Messages
88
Reaction score
343
Some questions.

1. What's scum read?
2. What is a closed game?
3. What is an open game?
4. What is the meaning of life?

Also, Aqua just seems a bit.. odd. But I think we're going to end up no lynching anyway. But either way, like many including myself have pointed out, NOT lynching only pushes the game back ONE CYCLE. However, whether we Lynch or no Lynch, I believe we still get information on who died, correct?
1. A scum read is believing that someone is anti-Town ("scum") on the basis of what they said
2. A set-up in which possible roles in the game are not made known to the players (such as Prizyms' Emoji Mafia game); Alisha's The Pearled Bridge is a little bit of a hybrid between the two, for your reference
3. A set-up in which all the roles in the game are made known to the players (such as this game)

Again, I don't really have a bad read on Aqua as of now and I'm convinced voting Rune is the better option given what he posted from before. I could be wrong but I don't really see a big problem in voting Rune as of now, and I would ask you to vote him until he claims something, at least.
 

TheWeakGuy48_

Geezuslike
Donor
Mafia Host
Joined
Dec 31, 2012
Messages
218
Reaction score
785
Votecount


Unusual_Dood: [1/7] Aqua

Chocofox: [1/7] Enderfive

Rune: [1/7] Chocofox

No-lynch: [3/7] Roobarb Pie, Okx, Betapanda

Not voting: [7] Alisha, Comp, Duke, Rune, Shadow_Hunter3, TehBrian and Unsual_Dood


7 votes are required for a no-lynch.
7 votes are required for a lynch.

Deadline in 3 hours!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top