They Are Among Us [Game Complete!]

[Aqua]

Well Adam has proven, I just gave him the parameters I have no idea what he's done lmao

anyway just to round up my hexapost I'm gonna go to bed so feel free to leave me questions for the morning.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

So in essence, since you wouldn't share what items you had stolen or clarify which items you had begun the game with which was even more scummy to add on top of the original scum, I wanted to reach an ultimatum with you by tricking you into thinking I had more power than I actually did.

By using the wrench as leverage if nothing got anywhere I would threaten to destroy the wrench if you did not comply. This wasn't helped by me then finding out, through the awkwardness that is subbing midday first via discord then via escaperetart convo, that the wrench was immediately put in the safe by whoever was in my role before me and then also having the misfortune to try this when Tim had visited me. (and then promptly revealed before I could progress with trying to get info out of you for some reason idk why Tim did that but rip)

that's about it really.

so you thought id believe you if you said youd destroy an extremely powerful town item unless i responded? either youre town and youd never do that, or youre scum in which case youd do it anyways, so this makes no sense and i find it hard to believe

I didn't want it to distract from my main points, which it somewhat did as all of that was a lot messier than it had to be.... but since I've come out still confident ur role doesn't fit the game after ur answers and knowing that you lied about receiving conformation from the host I'm confident ur scum.

? still find this hard to believe.

you said stranger answered 'no' which means that i didnt lie??

unless youre saying you asked if shed be able to answer and she said no? in which case i mean, she answered me so maybe ask again for clarification or something? she might have misunderstood?

Speaking of I'll reveal what I asked once you reveal what you asked. I don't want you rewording your claim based on what I asked. I've already explained what answer I received so it's not as if I can particularly change what question I asked

i already said i asked her whether people get told about getting blocked. she said no.

and i mean, you can change what you supposedly asked now even if you already said the answer was no

This is the thing it won't be accurate but ti will certainly be in the right ballpark. You're complaining because it ignores the other teams abilities. Which it doesn't as like I said I factored in the night kill and the block as two separate, constant night actions.

oh i didnt know youd included those

It's impossible to know exactly to what extent the extra roles and items and other additions will impact the chance of winning but based on the pure solid game mechanics alone it's definitely town favoured. As I've just proven.

it means almost nothing because it lacks the specifics to be accurate anyways. just because it captures the very basic roles in the setup doesnt mean its definitely gonna be 'close' to how itd be when the specifics are in play.

but besides, you're saying it's 60% town favoured. that means it's 10% over into being too town favoured right? 50% would be perfect balance? in which case 60% is perfectly reasonable to think this game could be, so even if you stand by these stats it doesnt mean much to me either. unless youre gonna argue that all hosts always create perfectly balanced games, but you know better than that.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

i already said i asked her whether people get told about getting blocked. she said no.

well, i could be more specific as to how i worded it but that could be breaking rules. this answer should suffice.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

i guess i can be more specific without being too specific:

i asked stranger whether theres a notification to tell someone theyre blocked if theyre blocked, she said no

 

[Infected_alien8_]

im going to bed, just gonna say:

noone else vote yet. if you vote before we're at least under 24 hours left, you're potentially letting maf pile on and win when the decision doesn't need to be made yet. so the only reason you should be voting is if you're mafia. and obviously if you vote and your maf buds dont come in time to hammer, youre screwed

 

[Infected_alien8_]

one more thing i think i should say before i sleep and leave the thread for hours actually: i want to role massclaim today (not items, only role).

whilst im like fairly confident aqua is scum, with it most likely being mylo i dont feel confident enough to risk not getting all cards out on the table before making a final decision. obv ideally we wouldnt need to massclaim yet just in case theres a good PR that could be hidden one more day, but id only want to not massclaim if i felt very confident in finding scum. i was gonna wait for more elaboration from aqua RE his 'plan' not making any sense before deciding whether i want to massclaim or not so that i could see how confident i felt on him being scum, but we're running out of time so im nervous holding back the massclaim idea for too long in case it becomes too late to get everyone to respond and then give us a decent amount of time to discuss whos scummiest. i think even if we do reveal an important PR, we still have a decent chance to win using claims + the last three days worth of posting, so i dont think keeping PRs hidden at this point outweighs the risk of running out of time to make sure we get this mylo correct.

so yeah i propose we role massclaim asap.

obviously some of us already have, so if someone else wants to start it, please do.

ok gn

 

[Aqua]

i already said i asked her whether people get told about getting blocked. she said no.

So it was as simple as that. Aight.
I asked the question:

if I asked "am I notified when I get blocked" would you be able to answer me yes or no?

the answer was a simple negative without further explanation suggesting there's little to no wiggle room.

Assuming the host is consistent with the information revealed to players/factions, I implore everybody who doesn't believe me to find out themselves.

 

[Aqua]

im going to bed, just gonna say:

noone else vote yet. if you vote before we're at least under 24 hours left, you're potentially letting maf pile on and win when the decision doesn't need to be made yet. so the only reason you should be voting is if you're mafia. and obviously if you vote and your maf buds dont come in time to hammer, youre screwed

and sure now I'm confident you can't wriggle your way out of this.

unvote :)

 

[HKCaper]

All the safe does is prevent the item inside from being stolen and can't be stolen itself.

how would that work if you are nightkilled?

 

[Aqua]

but besides, you're saying it's 60% town favoured. that means it's 10% over into being too town favoured right? 50% would be perfect balance? in which case 60% is perfectly reasonable to think this game could be, so even if you stand by these stats it doesnt mean much to me either. unless youre gonna argue that all hosts always create perfectly balanced games, but you know better than that.

Also that's not really how this works. He go the result by simulating 10,000 games. to go from 60%->50% 1000 games would have to be won due to whatever other hidden mechanic mafia has alone, ignoring all the other benefits town had that weren't included.

A good analogy would be when omniknight has a 60% winrate in dota 2. On paper that doesn't sound like he's overpowered, but when you scale it out to 100,000 games he's suddenly winning 10,000 games above the average. And this is a moba, a game with countless more variables than a game of mafia.

 

[Aqua]

how would that work if you are nightkilled?

Not sure, was wondering myself but didn't get round to asking during the essay war of last night.

I'm going to assume it does get stolen, they clarified it wasn't steal-able but didn't go into specifics. But it not getting stolen via nightkill seems a little scuffed. If it dropped in the middle when I die or just got deleted, you'd think it'd be elaborated upon in the item desc.

but I'll double check now.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

either youre BSing to try to get some kind of 'reaction' from me (i mean why you think id lie about a host response as mafia i dont know, thatd be extremely shortsighted), or stranger misread your question, so try asking again whether if you were blocked youd be notified of it.

HKCaper Good Skele TheWeakGuy48_ claim?

 

[Aqua]

either youre BSing to try to get some kind of 'reaction' from me (i mean why you think id lie about a host response as mafia i dont know, thatd be extremely shortsighted), or stranger misread your question, so try asking again whether if you were blocked youd be notified of it.

I don't know, why did you lie about a host response?

Even assuming Stranger did misread my question (which is unlikely since it was clearly in reference to you) you should know more than anyone that you shouldn't have been told about a game mechanic exclusively.

So our options are the host fucked up or you're lying.

I messaged the host preemptively to find out whether they fucked up and gave mechanical information to you, and from there response it's clear they didn't, unless they're lying now to save face or they miss understood my question which is highly unlikely due to the context of the situation, you're lying.

I don't know stranger, but from what I can tell about this game they seem pretty competent, you probably saw this as a chance to falsify your blocking claims by citing conformation from the host. You probably assumed this would give your argument the authority it needed to prove you were definitely not mafia, that there was definitely a blocker and that I was wrong.

That makes far more sense to me than the host destroying their own game that they've clearly worked hard.

You chose to make a meta argument citing host pm's and you reap what you sow my dude =//

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Also that's not really how this works. He go the result by simulating 10,000 games. to go from 60%->50% 1000 games would have to be won due to whatever other hidden mechanic mafia has alone, ignoring all the other benefits town had that weren't included.

A good analogy would be when omniknight has a 60% winrate in dota 2. On paper that doesn't sound like he's overpowered, but when you scale it out to 100,000 games he's suddenly winning 10,000 games above the average. And this is a moba, a game with countless more variables than a game of mafia.

one, it still means barely anything because its an oversimplification. that 60% could easily become 50% if you take into account the fact your three 'investigatives' aren't three investigatives exactly because their results arent that clear cut and someone not having an item doesnt make them town and someone having it doesnt mean theyre scum, necessarily, depending on the maf roles in play.

two, 60% is still pretty balanced. you can increase the number of how many times the game is ran and watch how the number of wins town has over mafia increases by over time, but we're playing this game once. if there's a 60% chance town wins thats pretty balanced.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I don't know, why did you lie about a host response?

Even assuming Stranger did misread my question (which is unlikely since it was clearly in reference to you) you should know more than anyone that you shouldn't have been told about a game mechanic exclusively.

So our options are the host fucked up or you're lying.

I messaged the host preemptively to find out whether they fucked up and gave mechanical information to you, and from there response it's clear they didn't, unless they're lying now to save face or they miss understood my question which is highly unlikely due to the context of the situation, you're lying.

I don't know stranger, but from what I can tell about this game they seem pretty competent, you probably saw this as a chance to falsify your blocking claims by citing conformation from the host. You probably assumed this would give your argument the authority it needed to prove you were definitely not mafia, that there was definitely a blocker and that I was wrong.

That makes far more sense to me than the host destroying their own game that they've clearly worked hard.

You chose to make a meta argument citing host pm's and you reap what you sow my dude =//

yeah youre right, i thought if i could convince you theres definitely a town blocker, i would definitely seem town! so i knew i needed to risk lying about it to convince you!

except that makes literally 0 sense at all but nice try

 

[Aqua]

one, it still means barely anything because its an oversimplification. that 60% could easily become 50% if you take into account the fact your three 'investigatives' aren't three investigatives exactly because their results arent that clear cut and someone not having an item doesnt make them town and someone having it doesnt mean theyre scum, necessarily, depending on the maf roles in play.

Sure, but like I say there are numerous positive variables unaccounted for too.

Depending on unknown factors you've suggested such as a lawyer or a bus driver yours and tim's role could potentially be better than a standard cop. There are too many variables to give a clear cut answer but a 10% margin is more than fair to cover them. Because at the end of the day, people are gonna get nightkilled and people are gonna get lynched and those are the main principles that win mafia games and should be balanced around.

two, 60% is still pretty balanced. you can increase the number of how many times the game is ran and watch how the number of wins town has over mafia increases by over time, but we're playing this game once. if there's a 60% chance town wins thats pretty balanced.

This is a different argument entirely which I don't mind going down if you want. Honestly it breaks down to subjectivity, but if you reversed it and said town had a 40% chance of winning you definitely wouldn't say the game was balanced.

But your right, theory crafting has been done and we seem to be in the 5% town devastation category, where everything goes wrong. It's unfortunate but doesn't inherently mean the game design was imbalanced from the start.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

also you still havent responded to the fact your 'plan' makes no sense, can you respond

 

[Aqua]

yeah youre right, i thought if i could convince you theres definitely a town blocker, i would definitely seem town! so i knew i needed to risk lying about it to convince you!

except that makes literally 0 sense at all but nice try

So stranger is lying then?

 

[Aqua]

so you thought id believe you if you said youd destroy an extremely powerful town item unless i responded? either youre town and youd never do that, or youre scum in which case youd do it anyways, so this makes no sense and i find it hard to believe

also you still havent responded to the fact your 'plan' makes no sense, can you respond

What else is there to say?

In theory yes, you're right. In practice not necessarily.

The entire point of the exercise was to get a reaction from you. What I would do and say beyond that point would depend entirely on how you react to my ability and items.

it's not as if it was some grand manipulation strategy to break your mind to my will dude, it was literally just a reaction test.

We've both done them countless times before. Unfortunately, this one turned out to be a little short sighted

 

[Aqua]

Imagine actually not letting inf respond first

that's cool and all and I'm 99% sure ur town therefore I have to cooperate with you but can you please stop talking until inf responds

Besides if you didn't think it was at least somewhat to do with you, why do you think I'd have been frustrated that Tim wouldn't drop it before you responded?

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Sure, but like I say there are numerous positive variables unaccounted for too.

Depending on unknown factors you've suggested such as a lawyer or a bus driver yours and tim's role could potentially be better than a standard cop. There are too many variables to give a clear cut answer but a 10% margin is more than fair to cover them. Because at the end of the day, people are gonna get nightkilled and people are gonna get lynched and those are the main principles that win mafia games and should be balanced around.

the positive variables unaccounted for are town's reads and chat roles, i think you said? if you think those are enough to keep it at 60% despite the three investigatives not being clear cut then i mean thats your opinion but im sceptical.

there might be another town role that could not be claimed yet, and that could keep it at 60%, but we have no reason to assume that.

i dont follow why driver role would make mine and tim's role more powerful?

This is a different argument entirely which I don't mind going down if you want. Honestly it breaks down to subjectivity, but if you reversed it and said town had a 40% chance of winning you definitely wouldn't say the game was balanced.

not perfectly balanced, but pretty balanced still. i dont expect hosts to make perfectly balanced 50% chance of winning games. and youve played enough games to not expect that either. if you asked me to flip a weighted coin that will 40% of the time land on tails, im not gonna think 'wow its so unlikely it will land on tails'. and in mafia game context 40% is within the boundaries of what's realistic imo.

So stranger is lying then?

either you are or stranger misunderstood

Besides if you didn't think it was at least somewhat to do with you, why do you think I'd have been frustrated that Tim wouldn't drop it before you responded?

you dont think i think you can come up with a lie about it involving me and lie about that?

 

[Aqua]

either you are or stranger misunderstood

I mean I've said it before and I'll say it again, I want everybody to message stranger and ask the same question I did.

If stranger misunderstood that'll be made apparent, if I lied that will also be made apparent....

and if you lied... well, I guess we know what happens then :)

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Aqua are you vanilla town?

 

[Aqua]

you dont think i think you can come up with a lie about it involving me and lie about that?

So you think it's more likely I would have come up with a lie immediately (considering I responded to Tim asap) about orchestrating a convoluted reaction test to you, than to try to explain myself to Tim or come up with the thousands of more plausible excuses, such as misreading my pm, not being told the correct info straight away after subbing (which like I say did infact happen) or claiming Tim's results were tampered with?

I mean okie doke, you'd think after all the games we've played together you'd know I would be more composed than that but then again you know it's right anyway because you're anti town.

 

[Aqua]

Aqua are you vanilla town?

in essence yes, my ability comes from my item. Beyond that I have no power roles.