EscapeRemastered Mafia: Economy of Madness [Day 3]

[Stranger from Myst Island]

I still don't see why though.

In the interest of not dragging your feet unnecessarily - like I don't see the difference between your items getting revealed publicly through the auction or you claiming the items other than you stonewalling us about the latter for reasons(tm).

That was meant to be in response to this.

 

[Aqua]

ok im not good at probabilty but im pretty sure that just because we know that at least 33% of the maf team are mafioso now that says nothing about the probability of the other team being mafioso as well. we knew it was possible that there was 1 mafioso and 2 non-PR before, that likelihood of that possibility hasnt changed at all

I spelt it out for you - we went from entirely speculation so an inconclusive probability to a confirmed >33% and I use that liberally because in reality I could put money on it being a 60% probability there are just too many unknown and unmeasurable variables to give a conclusive answer.

But by basic maths we know it has now gone from a >0% to a >33%

That is an increase in theoretical probability

 

[Aqua]

i mean either way the donations are all over the amount everyone claims they have
the only person who thinks that that would interrupt buying stuff is people who have more coins than they claim
very interesting...

Did... did you not read the post that you're quoting...?

Ask. Tim. Whether. Bids. Go. Before. Donations.

I'm pretty sure they will do but if you ask, and Tim says they don't I guess I'll go along with ur plan (altho I still think my notty one is better)

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I spelt it out for you - we went from entirely speculation so an inconclusive probability to a confirmed >33% and I use that liberally because in reality I could put money on it being a 60% probability there are just too many unknown and unmeasurable variables to give a conclusive answer.

But by basic maths we know it has now gone from a >0% to a >33%

That is an increase in theoretical probability

how has the probability of all mafia being mafioso gone up just because we know 1 of the 3 mystery mafia are mafioso

if thats the case, then the probability of '1 mafioso and 2 PR' has to have gone down, correct?

but it hasnt.

so im 99% sure your logic is flawed here

 

[Infected_alien8_]

how has the probability of all mafia being mafioso gone up just because we know 1 of the 3 mystery mafia are mafioso

if thats the case, then the probability of '1 mafioso and 2 PR' has to have gone down, correct?

but it hasnt.

so im 99% sure your logic is flawed here

2 mafioso and 1 PR*

 

[Mooglie]

Did... did you not read the post that you're quoting...?

Ask. Tim. Whether. Bids. Go. Before. Donations.

I'm pretty sure they will do but if you ask, and Tim says they don't I guess I'll go along with ur plan (altho I still think my notty one is better)

yes i did read it
you said its important for 'us' to get the auction items
that is implying town, i can only assume
but no town should be lying about their coin amount, so how would the donations that are specifically designed to be over the amount of coins people who arent lying have, affect the bidding?

 

[Aqua]

how has the probability of all mafia being mafioso gone up just because we know 1 of the 3 mystery mafia are mafioso

if thats the case, then the probability of '1 mafioso and 2 PR' has to have gone down, correct?

but it hasnt.

so im 99% sure your logic is flawed here

No... the probability of 1 mafioso and 2 Pr's has gone up?

We went from a 1/4 to a 1/3

 

[Aqua]

but no town should be lying about their coin amount, so how would the donations that are specifically designed to be over the amount of coins people who arent lying have, affect the bidding?

Because if MAFIA has stolen coins and are now over their original claimed coin count they can BID away some of that money and get UNDER their coin count.

So ur plan does nothing. It is pointless.

 

[Mooglie]

Because if MAFIA has stolen coins and are now over their original claimed coin count they can BID away some of that money and get UNDER their coin count.

So ur plan does nothing. It is pointless.

but thats not what you said in the post you claimed i didnt read :)

 

[Mooglie]

and anyway, either way with the mafia donating away their money its a good plan since, again, it doesnt affect the towns ability to bid so all its gonna do is cause the mafia to spend the amount of money they can to get under the amount theyre meant to donate and the less money they have the better

 

[Infected_alien8_]

No... the probability of 1 mafioso and 2 Pr's has gone up?

We went from a 1/4 to a 1/3

idk what this means

but if the probability of all maf being mafioso has gone up, that has to mean the probability of all maf being 2 mafioso + 1 PR has gone down right?

but in that scenario there was a like 60-something% change that we hit the mafioso there so i wouldnt say that probability has gone down

so surely the probability of all maf being mafioso hasnt gone up

 

[Nottykitten]

Timdood3 if a hypothetical person were to donate more money than they have is this an invalid donation then or do they just donate all the coins they have to the magical box?

 

[Infected_alien8_]

idk what this means

but if the probability of all maf being mafioso has gone up, that has to mean the probability of all maf being 2 mafioso + 1 PR has gone down right?

but in that scenario there was a like 60-something% change that we hit the mafioso there so i wouldnt say that probability has gone down

so surely the probability of all maf being mafioso hasnt gone up

as in according to your argument that 'its most likely that we have 3 mafioso' or whatever

i can see why the probability of both those scenarios couldve gone up but if thats the case surely theres still a roughly equal chance that theres 3 mafioso vs 2 mafioso

 

[Aqua]

idk what this means

but if the probability of all maf being mafioso has gone up, that has to mean the probability of all maf being 2 mafioso + 1 PR has gone down right?

but in that scenario there was a like 60-something% change that we hit the mafioso there so i wouldnt say that probability has gone down

so surely the probability of all maf being mafioso hasnt gone up

No because the chance that all maf are PRs is gone

also can we not get into this - it literally doesn't matter and I cba

 

[Infected_alien8_]

No because the chance that all maf are PRs is gone

also can we not get into this - it literally doesn't matter and I cba

it does matter since if youre thinking 'theres a huge chance theres only mafioso' then that will influence your reads since it means unu/stranger are unlikely to be scum to you but i disagree with that conclusion

 

[Aqua]

Timdood3 if a hypothetical person were to donate more money than they have is this an invalid donation then or do they just donate all the coins they have to the magical box?

Tim didn't answer my hypothetical question about a hypothetical person donating hypothetically before so I don't think ur gonna get one either....

We need oog to gain the courage to talk to scary Tim in his role pm

 

[Mooglie]

We need oog to gain the courage to talk to scary Tim in his role pm

you dont know my life story

and your questions were literally useless anyway, if anything the knowledge would only benefit the mafia
notty actually has a good one that ill go ask

 

[Aqua]

it does matter since if youre thinking 'theres a huge chance theres only mafioso' then that will influence your reads since it means unu/stranger are unlikely to be scum to you but i disagree with that conclusion

it is a probability MASSIVELY effected by intuition.

that's literally not even how probability works, even if it's a 90% chance of every mafia being a PR it could still be that 10% of it not.

I have drawn my opinion from the evidence available and my intuition about mafia. You have drawn yours. I am not convinced but I do think it is the likely outcome. If you have different opinions that is fine.

I've told you why, I cba, I'm not responding anymore - we need oog to ask Tim about the nuances of his role

 

[Unusual_Dood]

how has the probability of all mafia being mafioso gone up just because we know 1 of the 3 mystery mafia are mafioso

if thats the case, then the probability of '1 mafioso and 2 PR' has to have gone down, correct?

but it hasnt.

so im 99% sure your logic is flawed here

Assuming the way of determining whether a role was mafioso or maf PR was completly random.

Then we initially had the combinations:
- 3 maf PR
- 2 maf PR, 1 mafioso
- 1 maf PR, 2 mafioso
- 3 mafiosos

When now knowing 1 is mafioso we have the combinations:
- 2 maf PR, 1 mafioso
- 1 maf PR, 2 mafioso
- 3 mafiosos

Basically, the 3 maf PR possibility is gone, regardless what the ratio is between the possibilities. So the 3 mafiosos possibility has increased, and likewise the 2 maf PR+1 mafioso and 1 maf PR + 2 mafioso has increased.

With that said, the way Tim has determined the roles are highly doubtful by randomness, so applying math to this argument is not very helpful anyway.





oles were determined randomly or Aqua is right. The chance of every player being mafioso is increased.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Assuming the way of determining whether a role was mafioso or maf PR was completly random.

Then we initially had the combinations:
- 3 maf PR
- 2 maf PR, 1 mafioso
- 1 maf PR, 2 mafioso
- 3 mafiosos

When now knowing 1 is mafioso we have the combinations:
- 2 maf PR, 1 mafioso
- 1 maf PR, 2 mafioso
- 3 mafiosos

Basically, the 3 maf PR possibility is gone, regardless what the ratio is between the possibilities. So the 3 mafiosos possibility has increased, and likewise the 2 maf PR+1 mafioso and 1 maf PR + 2 mafioso has increased.

With that said, the way Tim has determined the roles are highly doubtful by randomness, so applying math to this argument is not very helpful anyway.





oles were determined randomly or Aqua is right. The chance of every player being mafioso is increased.

yh im not saying it cant have increased im saying it cant have increased relative to the other possibility that theres 2 mafioso + 1 PR, cuz aqua's saying that twg being mafioso "massively supports" the idea that all of them are mafioso

but those scenarios of 3 mafioso vs 2 are both roughly equally likely right?

 

[Unusual_Dood]

oles were determined randomly or Aqua is right. The chance of every player being mafioso is increased.

disregard this part

 

[Aqua]

and your questions were literally useless anyway, if anything the knowledge would only benefit the mafia

?????

i mean in my mind i get 1 coin in like real time for a donation but tbh maybe i dont and i do just receive them at the end of the day since i guess my role would be slightly op otherwise

...please ask Tim in ur pm to clarify

@Mooglie if you've changed ur mind about asking Tim questions ask how donations work in regards to bidding and what happens first

?????

Just ask Tim whether the 1 coin you get is in real time or not and ask Tim what happens first donations or bidding.

For the love of god please.

 

[Nottykitten]

and your questions were literally useless anyway, if anything the knowledge would only benefit the mafia
notty actually has a good one that ill go ask

The donation box is public and Tim mentioned only valid donations are put through, so I don't see why they wouldnt confirm if donating more than you have is the 'invalid' here or they mean donations of <=0 (Infs coin amount in fact)

 

[Infected_alien8_]

it is a probability MASSIVELY effected by intuition.

that's literally not even how probability works, even if it's a 90% chance of every mafia being a PR it could still be that 10% of it not.

I have drawn my opinion from the evidence available and my intuition about mafia. You have drawn yours. I am not convinced but I do think it is the likely outcome. If you have different opinions that is fine.

I've told you why, I cba, I'm not responding anymore - we need oog to ask Tim about the nuances of his role

are you saying that you thinking theres a 90% chance stranger/unu arent scum wont influence your read of them

and that if that 90% chance is wrong it could be bad for town

(ik youre not saying exactly 90 but still)

but if youre not convinced then thats fine i guess

 

[Unusual_Dood]

but those scenarios of 3 mafioso vs 2 are both roughly equally likely right?

Assuming that was determined by randomness, we still have no idea what the ratio of the possibilities so we have no way of knowing.