another thing i wanted to point out is that notty is hyping up the mafia's kill potential a bit much imo, & ignoring some factors
- mafia losing any member is a pretty huge blow to them
- the bus driver/granny combo relies on neither of them being subpoena'd , the bus driver not being blocked; additionally, if the tracker follows the bus driver they immediately know their role (2 targets)
a) Not really, depends on which
b) low chance of that happening
this is fearmongering imo
i would be more inclined to consider a massclaim but i feel like the millers are in the setup specifically to make it a less viable tactic. if we lump the rev, all mafia, and the citizens together, our investigative roles become much much less useful, especially the monitor. also note that the revolutionary and godfather show up as town. see:
the lynch pool ends up being: 5 citizens, 7 mafia, 1 rev
but on reports, these will appear to be: 5 citizens, 8 mafia
there's also the danger of the granny being in that pool, dissuading town PRs from even trying to investigate the lynch pool players. AND the bus driver can mess up investigations/any non-mafia kills in the pool. rev will be completely unpredictable as if they try killing in the lynch pool to hit mafia, they increase their risk of being found out, but just firing randomly is less beneficial.
meanwhile, the mafia can kill off town members in their preferred order, since in order for the massclaim to actually force the antitown into the civ pool, ALL roles have to claim including ones that don't even want to such as doctor
we don't need to investigate them, that's not the point, we need to kill them because we don't have enough days before we get overwhelmed
massive logical fallacy here is ignoring the fact that we have PRs
massive logical fallacy here is ignoring the fact that even with PRs we're extremely unlikely to win without the massclaim idea and losing PRs is 100% worth doing that
yes good let's narrow down the number of good mafia kill targets from 18 to 8
(i realise i posted my stuff after you posted this but everyone is still saying this is a good idea so i'm quoting it directly)
yes good let's actually give ourselves a shot at winning by narrowing down the mafia pool from 26 to 7-13
Nay
Nomass
Even though I like oogs idea more I am still concerned that all the PRs will get neutralized quite fast as mafias has a role cop, a murder, a delayed toxic kill and can role block.
and what about the fact that without a massclaim, regardless of what our PRs achieve, if we mislynch once we likely lose
is nobody actually reading this thread im honestly so lost
ok first of all
Nay / Nomass
second of all, good lord. It's almost 5 AM and I just caught up so bear with me
...this doesn't really change much, from how I'm interpreting it, because we won't know who the useful PRs are, but, uhm... We still know they're important. And now mafia has a nice tidy list to pick off. Because they know who's useful. Also, I can't recall right now if this has already definitely been stated, but how exactly are we to determine who's useless? They all have a use given the right situation.
it's about getting the massclaim with as little damage as possible, because massclaim is important but it could help keep some of our PRs alive slightly longer
we... really don't. Have a 100% chance of lynching right every 2 days, that is. There's always human error, and yeah we don't want to think about mislynching that badly, but there's always a chance that we'll go from (I think these were the right numbers?) 8/13... to 8/12... to 8/11... and... oops, we've lost.
I was saying that if two people CC a PR then we have a 50% chance to lynch correctly at first, then 100% chance because if 2 people CC a role we know one is mafia
And we'll lose a lot easier/faster if we don't massclaim so I'm slightly confused by what you're trying to get at
by mistake. so they literally have to choose from a pool of 26 people--or 8-13, in the event that we do massclaim--and hope the doctor's predictable. it's really not easy.
I guess it's not 'easy' but if there's a prime person who we obviously want kept alive then the mafia will know the doc has a decent chance to visit them, but depends on WIFOM and whether the Mafia want to kill that target and stuff as well, so yeah I get your point there
and this as well, because if the PRs play their cards right, there's a decent chance that they'll majorly throw off these so-called "certain" mafia kills.
anyway. yeah. prob going to wake up to another dozen pages to get through but here's my two cents O/
there's not a 'decent chance' at all, there's about a 2/26 chance that one blocker stops a kill. In a scenario where we likely can't mislynch these are terrible odds
o k
I don't understand, if you believe me, fali and ender are town then why not replace one of us with another potential maf? We only /really/ need 2 likely townies as representatives (fair enough this could result in a council made up of three mafia. However, it's more likely one of the other 3 will be a townie and support the other two townies. Besides in the case 3 unconfirmed do make it to the council together, we can be sceptical of their alignment report, with no real harm done). You should swap one of us out for notty.
Having a mafia controlled council is very bad and a complete waste of democracy + risks them electing a mafia dictator so we need at least 3 confirmed townies if we're doing democracy, which we shouldn't be anyway
iirc
Ooglie101's plan was to just have the 5 most useless pr's claim their specific PR. This would decrease your dumb statistics even more inf as it would increase the pool for potential mafia. In this scenario mafia can claim a PR role as well as civilian without claiming specifics and you wouldn't be able to prove it.
Like HK has been saying mafia never goes the way you plan. Why are you so hard set on using a strategy over your intuition and ability to read people like... idk... ANY OTHER MAFIA GAME.
It's to get a pool of citizen claims so that we lynch among them, then depending on how many we get we massclaim after
'using a strategy over your intuition' what are you talking about
just because we narrow down suspects into CCs that doesn't mean suddenly we're not going to use intuition to decide on which players are mafia and which are town, it means we get an extremely higher chance of being correct and not wasting our precious time lynching PRs and losing the game
o k
(legitimately really thrown off by the triple negative here, fairs I did just wake up, but I THINK what you're saying is retarded)
I'm saying that the odds of us losing are worse if we have a bigger pool of players to scumhunt in, so regardless of how bad the likelihood of this strat, it's probably still the best and better than democracy alternative
and don't go and quote notty's post saying if town makes 1 mistake they lose because once again IT IS WRONG and shows 1 scenario out of the possible millions.
It shows an optimal town play. You're right there are loads of other possibilities, most of which end up going a lot worse than that. Sure some may go better but it's unlikely because of the Mafia roles and how many potential kills they get
I'm glad I'm not the only one who sees it once again.
Like in most games when
Nottykitten 's mafia she is using pretty basic manipulation/debating tactics in order to try and manipulate town (this game strawmanning, incite to anger, appealing to ignorance and , as jivvi noted, fear-mongering.)
If notty were protown and genuinely did believe this strategy to be the best way forward for town, she wouldn't have to undermine my argument by misrepresenting me or insulting me. Either she would be able to prove me wrong by logic which she still hasn't done, as she still hasn't given a logical response to any of my accusations/counterpoints to her arguments or would give up on her strategy as it is flawed in the ways I and others have pointed out.
This basically leads us to three out comes notty's either:
being an arrogant townie and refusing to respond to me properly because for some reason her head's up her arse and she doesn't think I'm worthy of a response.
Mafia and has no way of debating those who oppose her/people wanting her to claim thus tries and ignore (as I said brush under the rug) or strawman to make them look stupid as she has been doing.
and thirdly, she's trying to buy time to think of some way of making an uncountable argument with as many exits as possible so she won't be pinned and can evade suspicion when her strategy proves antitown
^if you don't believe the third one as earlier she strawmanned this point trying to take the piss out of me, look at tavern arcana where she did just this (which I called her out for and was ignored by sheep townies so please don't fall for this again town <3)
It's not even fear-mongering it's literally the truth
If someone sees a werewolf and shouts "werewolf" do you say "shut up fEARMONGERING gosh!" and let yourself die???
And where did she ignore you, as far as I've seen all of your points have been addressed by either myself or her, though if I missed something then fair enough
Anyway.
As I have made pretty clear the downside to notty claiming compared with the positives is incredibly minor and this would prove so much whilst helping town actually move in the right direction, whether being able to trust notty infallibly or being sceptical of her innocence.
@inf (shitty forums wont let me tag rip) - you understood why I wanted notty to claim before, as another big presence in this game who supports notty's strat, do you think she should claim? and if no, why? what are the downsides and how do they outway the positives?
@oog same with you, ya little cuckboi shill
I mean I don't really understand why you're only willing to listen to the plan if she's town, what does that change if she's town or not, you can see her plan, you can see the implications of it, you can work out for yourself if it's a good idea or not, if she's town and you still think the idea is bad then why are you suddenly going to bandwagon onto it
But as for whether she should claim, depends on her role. If she's a weaker PR + people would seriously take into account her being town as a reason for suddenly listening then yes she probably should because it would probably save the game
If she's one of the more powerful ones then she should probably only claim if it's certain to make people do the plan since otherwise it could be a waste and make it slightly (although still incredibly unlikely) less likely we'd pull through under a democracy
If she's a citizen then no because it's pointless
If she's maf then she can claim citizen and we'll still have no idea of her allignment or not
Holy fuck it's hard to read 6 pages of two people going back and forth
You're right, using last game vs this game isn't a great point, considering yesterday I made sure to note I was running a fevor, wasn't fully myself, and tried to post at a minimum because I didn't feel well. And I'm not 'waiting to see if it struggles' I would want to wait to see if the amount of kills during the night are truly 3/4 or if there's some lucky breaks during the night. Case in point, aqua's last game where mafia kept getting screwed over the first few nights.
So if there aren't lucky breaks and it's too late and we lose, that's fine by you? Even if there's 1 lucky break we're still unlikely to pull through, as you can see with the numbers of factions
Holy fuck it's hard to read 6 pages of two people going back and forth
You're right, using last game vs this game isn't a great point, considering yesterday I made sure to note I was running a fevor, wasn't fully myself, and tried to post at a minimum because I didn't feel well. And I'm not 'waiting to see if it struggles' I would want to wait to see if the amount of kills during the night are truly 3/4 or if there's some lucky breaks during the night. Case in point, aqua's last game where mafia kept getting screwed over the first few nights.
I looked at Notty's statistics of winning if we flip to autocracy, which seems all well and good(besides some blatantly incorrect math that neither Notty nor Inf(not necessarily that Inf needs to) have responded to). But I feel like there's something missing, I don't want to metagame but Priz is insanely experienced at mafia and he designed this game with JK, another pro. I don't think one of the two systems of government is set up to be an autolose for town. I haven't found that 'missing link' but I'll be honest in saying I haven't looked too hard at it.
The math being wrong doesn't mean it's not still the best chances we have
I'm inclined to believe it was an honest mistake because where I'm sitting her idea is 100% best for town so I don't see why she'd push for it as Mafia
Massclaim is probably fine but idk about Day 1, frankly I don't think a massclaim is going to happen on day 1 just because of how reluctant the majority is. I'm not one of the three PR's that are supposed to claim. I'll vote on reps later today because I need to get ready for work now.
So you're in support of a massclaim then?
Can we just do oog's thing.
The more i think about it, the more i like the idea that all citizens claim.
If all dessenters also claim to be citizen we have incredible odds at getting dessenters, since there will be more fake citizen claims then real ones.
If not all dessenters claim citizen, they will get fucked by possible massclaim later on.
Am i missing anything?
t h a n k y o u
i mean
how well do you know fali? i'm not saying she is def town, but i am saying that she's fairly incapable of being anything other than honest, sweet, innocent and cautious, as far as i know her, at least
They're always the murderers :eyes:
but she's claimed to be one of the three so I guess you're probably right
i think we've established that logical doesn't quite mean the same to you as it does to others
I mean nobody has pointed out where anything I've said has a flaw in logic, they've just been like "it feels wrong to massclaim because massclaim is bad!" or "but there's a chance it could go wrong!" or something
dude what you quoted is addressing the idea
his point is valid, massclaims are a valid strat for town only when a majority goes along with them
if there are several townies who would rather not reveal their role just yet, the entire strat is shot
But the reason people are against it is because they don't seem to be listening to the points raised against them. By hunter yet again doing exactly that and switching his argument to "well most people don't want it" is literally being part of the reason why people don't want it. If he actually addresses my points then maybe he and others would.
Plus democracy + subpoena means at best three dissidents out of the loop and using their night actions. Win, win, win!
Go read Notty's post on the faction numbers if we do democracy. It's not a win scenario at all. The Mafia have too many kills, meaning we're going to probably lose in a few days because there's simply not enough time for us to pick off them before they pick off us, unless we get seriously lucky
that's the whole point. we don't want the people we want mafia to target all claiming together so that mafia can safely avoid them
What does this mean
Also what exactly is your stance on everything because I swear I've seen you be against massclaim and then act like caff was weird for saying she was agreeing with you + not wanting a massclaim and I'm very lost
- mafia poison/cure is 0-1 as avarita cannot poison and cure on the same night, meaning that while risky, the assassin can keep them on their back foot
What does this mean also
Thats something I was thinking about earlier.
While it’s obviously best to have the highest chance to lynch Mafia, we also need to concider that we make lunches based on scum hunting.
Mafia will know who our PRs are if we do the mass claim thing, if we don’t do the mass claim thing, they won’t, and they can’t rally PR hunt the same way we can scum hunt.
While I’m not strongly for one or the other, I find it a bit curious that the team mass claim don’t seem to take into consideration how we cohoes mafia targets, and how some of them don’t seem to care that our PRs are lynched off.
While we will have a lower target pool, the mafia will also have a better target pool. They won’t be lynching or vanilla townjes if we claim.
Side note: This plan, while they are our least useful role, will doom a lot of our villagers. I would assume that the team mass claim is not a villager.
We use reads yes but under democracy we can't mislynch. Reads can be wrong. PRs being lost is worth it because it means we have a decent chance at winning. It's just just about a better chance, it's about an actual chance
Infected_alien8_
You use vibes a lot.
Last time you vibes me as maf for god knows what reason, and got me elected into the council through bandawagon, for me to be killed off.
Aqua, while more understandably chosen, was also a villager.
While it somehow worked out as me getting dictator(?!?), I would like to remind you that your vibes are sometimes, completely wrong.
Yes obviously my reads can be wrong, this isn't news to me, but obviously I'm not going to ignore any of my reads based on the fact that sometimes I'm wrong
Won’t this also kill mafia, or rev, if they are aiming to kill the dictator?
Yeah but there's no way of knowing when they're gonna use bus driver
Yes I have
I decided against it
Nah, I really have nothing to say. Also I'm fairly busy currently. Last time for example the plan failed immediately due to certain people.
Although it's dictatorship part was a bit flawed... Or maybe I just didn't want to be the first death. Anyway different game now.
The prev game strat and massclaims are the two main plans if I read correctly. And I kinda lost it midway. So have a bunch of rereading to do.
(btw Danni deserves to be in a council with aqua)
I swear you were a lot more involved/invested before which is either a result of different irl things (you said you're busy so i guess) or you're not the same allignment imo :eyes:
Nottykitten
Your stuff is sound, the only thing I ask again is that, do you not value the ability to find mafia, that are targeting a dictator?
If we both doctor and Watch a dictator, they will either fail to kill the dictator, or get their bus driver exposed, if it’s tthe last one they can no longer bus drive the dic, and he is save u t doc dies.
This makes the autocrat plan 100% better because we don't have to worry about the rev thing which was the main drawback
Aqua brought up
Haven't read all the notty stuff yet since I have to go revise now but yeah
