The Red Scare [Game Over]

[Iggish]

How much longer till the deadline?

 

[Enderfive]

How much longer till the deadline?

a few hours, like three or four i think

 

[Fog]

How much longer till the deadline?

9pm GMT
so 10pm in Ireland if that's where you're from

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Oh shit inf, you got me the pressure of that ONE VOTE from YOU, fucking freaked me out dude, I had to quickly act all townie by joining in on the TWG lynch train!!1111

The fact I didn't even realise how stupid your post was the first time you posted it accusing me of doing it to act town because I was under the spotlight when, at that point, you were the only person voting me kinda says a lot about my involvement in this game lmao.

I was the only one voting you yes, but both oog and notty had said they were happy to vote you aswell, which was the potential of three votes, and you would have been able to see that.

if you're going to try and get me lynched at least hit me with some reasonable arguments

:thinking:

 

[Nottykitten]

Inf if you're going to try and get me lynched at least hit me with some reasonable arguments, the only reason I didn't instantly resolve them was because busy so constantly bringing them up even when you totally knew how flawed they were is stupid.

You can't really say this when your reason for voting Inf is litterally that.


Plus his argument isn't DUMB and capitalizing WORDS will NOT make your argument better AT ALL. But yeah his argument isn't dumb at all. You *did* suddenly announce your suspicions for Weak when:

1. It started to look less likely Inf was gonna be lynched and your name got more attention.

• Weak's lynch started gaining more traction, and since you're Mafia and hes not you wouldn't mind him getting lynched. You then realized that people mentioned they wouldn't mind lynching you and you started outing 'suspicion' on Weak so that you wouldn't look like you're suddenly switching when you vote Weak later on((which you haven't yet since this isn't the future)).

Your suspicion as they say in the west: came out of nowhere. Which is what makes you more suspicious.

 

[Deleted member 4601]

The interesting thing about Aqua is how he has been extremely aggressive towards Inffy right from the start of day 1. While Inffy might have gained a fair amount of attention at the start of the day due to him talking about the possibility of himself being framed (hence justifying Aqua's push for an Inffy lynch right from the beginning), the fact that he continues to push for an Inffy lynch despite the focus shifting to other people now is something to thinking about. (The last time I saw him doing this was when I was being attacked by him in the previous game, but since that's a different game altogether I'll try not let that affect my judgement that much.)

The fact that he's continuously pushing for an Inffy lynch could go multiple ways I suppose. If he were mafia, it would make sense for him to cash in on the fact that Inffy had become an easy lynch target, because of a few things. (He has acknowledged suspicions on other people based on the opinions of other players in the game, but his main arguments was almost always focused in inffy)

• Firstly, while actively supporting a lynch on Inffy (whom in this scenario would flip town) would eventually lead to suspicions on Aqua himself, at this point of the game, having an townie lynch would make it even harder for the town to garner any support against Aqua even if he did became suspicious.
• Secondly, it makes sense for Aqua to stick to one single lynch target and hardly deviating, since throughout this game switching between different people have become a sign of being scum. (see unu's accusation of Iggy, Ender, Foggy and Aqua) Consistency is easier to justify than jumping around, especially if one is mafia.
• Thirdly, he constantly groups people who are defending Inffy together and have more often than not labelled or implied that they are suspicious, which seems like something that upon closer examination is a rather rash thing to do. While it is certainly valid to express suspicion based on voting patterns, grouping people together without much evidence to back it up with the exception of them voting for the same person is not something that is thought well enough. Anyone who is a townie could just as well vote for the same person because he/she believes that the arguments that have been presented against the accused are valid and sound.
• Fourthly, it is too great of a risk for a townie to focus their attention on a single person while only slightly acknowledging other viewpoints because it doesn't benefit town at all. If a townie is pushing hard for a lynch on someone, they are counting on your confidence that said person is mafia. That's not what Aqua's been doing. He's been hard on him all the time, and I'm inclined to believe that this is not a townie who's got tremendous confidence on his suspicions, but a mafia who has been taking advantage of an easy lynch target.

Now, onto Inffy: things have changed a little since there has been slightly less suspicion on Inffy now, especially with the lifting of votes off him and the increasing suspicion of weak. I feel like Inffy's suspicions originated from his initial "spam" at the beginning of day one, where he made hip's death a really big issue (not that it isn't), and his words were used against him, but honestly I feel like the main cause of all the suspicions against him can be traced back to his initial posts.

• Inffy felt an inherent need to defend himself from any potential suspicion due to his initial hip comments on day zero and the death of hip at night. If he were to be mafia, the possibility of him doing these two actions are mutually exclusive.
• If Inffy was mafia, if he raised suspicions on hip on day zero and killed hip at night, it is far more beneficial for him to avoid talking about it because not only did hip get little attention on day zero, it is easy to pass off Inffy's comments on hip as simple day zero banter rather than solid evidence for Inffy being mafia. The thing is, Inffy's initial suspicions on hip on day zero are by no means solid evidence that points towards him being guilty.
• Since hip was killed at night and we are sure that that is a mafia kill, and that Inffy immediately defended himself at the dawn of day one, I can say that Inffy is probably not mafia. It is not beneficial for a mafia Inffy to kill hip and then immediately proceed to defending himself when day one starts.

With that:

unvote
vote Aqua

 

[Fog]

You can't really say this when your reason for voting Inf is litterally that.


Plus his argument isn't DUMB and capitalizing WORDS will NOT make your argument better AT ALL. But yeah his argument isn't dumb at all. You *did* suddenly announce your suspicions for Weak when:

1. It started to look less likely Inf was gonna be lynched and your name got more attention.

• Weak's lynch started gaining more traction, and since you're Mafia and hes not you wouldn't mind him getting lynched. You then realized that people mentioned they wouldn't mind lynching you and you started outing 'suspicion' on Weak so that you wouldn't look like you're suddenly switching when you vote Weak later on((which you haven't yet since this isn't the future)).

Your suspicion as they say in the west: came out of nowhere. Which is what makes you more suspicious.

this post upsets me... not due to the content... just the presentation ;-;

 

[Fog]

and we are sure that that is a mafia kill

are we tho?

 

[Nottykitten]

are we tho?

I would say so, it's pretty normal for a vigilante to not shoot the first night. And the odds that both the Vig did decide to shoot, and the doc saved the Mafia target are so low we can pass it off as improbable.

 

[Deleted member 4601]

are we tho?

Four options (and the probabilities of them happening)

• Mafia kill. Vig did nothing. (89.9%)
• Vig kill. Mafia did nothing. (0.0%)
• Mafia kill. Vig target saved by Doctor. (6.2%)
• Vig kill. Mafia kill saved by Doctor. (3.9%)

This comes with the assumption that there's a 100% chance that the mafia attempted to kill someone. The game is not random,but to defy the odds would mean defying a 96.1% chance of hip being killed by mafia.

 

[Oak Milk]

Its 2:30 am, can't you all live in my timezone for fucks sake.

ALRIGHT WELL, Oak is tired so he is gonna make this quick.

Personally feel that a lynch on Infected would have been better, that being said I can see the logic in the arguments made by ender. I'm not totally convinced that we have heard enough from TWG to lynch him, however, Unusual dude has very nearly the same suspicions that were outed by TWG earlier. Which also makes this post of his here somewhat incorrect http://escaperestart.com/forum/threads/the-red-scare-day-1.20667/page-38#post-395840 as it seems to imply (I think) that TWG was only suspicious of Iggish, when in reality this post here http://escaperestart.com/forum/threads/the-red-scare-day-1.20667/page-35#post-395762 has him out several people as a suspicious team.

Either way both their suspicions contain foggy which is strange because he isn't actually voting for TWG but is instead voting for Inffy like me, which leads me to believe that Ender is probably right in his essay.

unvote Infected Alien
vote TWG

 

[Oak Milk]

I. AM. GOING. TO. SLEEP.

 

[Aqua]

Weaks lynch started gaining more traction, and since you're Mafia and hes not you wouldn't mind him getting lynched. You then realized that people mentioned they wouldn't mind lynching you and you started outing 'suspicion' on Weak so that you wouldn't look like you're suddenly switching when you vote Weak later on((which you haven't yet since this isn't the future)).

The interesting thing about Aqua is how he has been extremely aggressive towards Inffy right from the start of day 1. While Inffy might have gained a fair amount of attention at the start of the day due to him talking about the possibility of himself being framed (hence justifying Aqua's push for an Inffy lynch right from the beginning), the fact that he continues to push for an Inffy lynch despite the focus shifting to other people now is something to thinking about. (The last time I saw him doing this was when I was being attacked by him in the previous game, but since that's a different game altogether I'll try not let that affect my judgement that much.)

I mean firstly to argue with Notty's point, the thing is I have been pro inf lynch as I think he is the better choice, the fact I find TWG suspicious isn't even relevant to me at this point since I want to see inf lynched. I could completely ignore TWG, and you would come up with some other argument about how I am suspicious for not thinking he is suspicious so it's rather frivolous arguing with you.

And onto Mulb as everyone else has made it quite clear, surely your reasoning is wrong? (normally I'd agree with you but since most people are calling me out for the opposite reason, I have to do the same sry :[[ )
If I were maf and knew both inf and TWG were inno, surely I would join the TWG lynch train because easy inno kill.
Thing is, I don't want an easy lynch because I'm town and I want to go for whom I deem the biggest threat to town and that is inf.

 

[Nottykitten]

I. AM. GOING. TO. SLEEP.

I'll pray for you that you don't wake up to another town being lynched(even though I think you voted the wrong person).

• Mafia kill. Vig did nothing. (89.9%)
• Vig kill. Mafia did nothing. (0.0%)
• Mafia kill. Vig target saved by Doctor. (6.2%)
• Vig kill. Mafia kill saved by Doctor. (3.9%)

Im not really arguing anything here but just wondering how are the last two different percentages?

 

[Deleted member 4601]

I am really disturbed by how divided the town is now. If I counted correctly, there are 5 votes against Aqua and 5 votes against Inffy. I honestly think that one of them is mafia (Aqua, that is, as I have previously stated). We have a good chance of lynching mafia today, but because of how the votes are divided and how close we are to the deadline, we might just be heading towards a no-lynch because unless something changes.

You should be afraid of a no-lynch and rightfully so given how if we let this slip mafia would have a far greater advantage over us the next day and hence if you haven't voted - please do.

And onto Mulb as everyone else has made it quite clear, surely your reasoning is wrong? (normally I'd agree with you but since most people are calling me out for the opposite reason, I have to do the same sry :[[ )
If I were maf and knew both inf and TWG were inno, surely I would join the TWG lynch train because easy inno kill.
Thing is, I don't want an easy lynch because I'm town and I want to go for whom I deem the biggest threat to town and that is inf.

I'm not sure if you've read through my argument, where I specifically talked about this. I'll raise them again:

• You constantly pushing for an Inffy lynch despite the dynamics constantly changing is more likely an indication of a mafia leeching off an easy target right from the start.
• The initial evidence that was meant to show that Inffy was guilty doesn't hold much weight because they are not as relevant, which further supports the possibility that you are pushing for an Inffy lynch because you as mafia know that Inffy is town and you are taking the opportunity of everyone else being suspicious of Inffy to get rid of another townie to increase the chances of mafia winning.
• Your persistence on Inffy is far too risky as town because it only serves to show that you've taken little consideration of other view points that might contradict yours.

I'll pray for you that you don't wake up to another town being lynched(even though I think you voted the wrong person).


Im not really arguing anything here but just wondering how are the last two different percentages?

Mafia has a smaller pool of targets to choose from. Intuitively this would make a mafia kill being saved by the doctor have a higher percentage, but because of the assumption that I made that mafia definitely tried to kill someone last night, the chances are swapped.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

And onto Mulb as everyone else has made it quite clear, surely your reasoning is wrong? (normally I'd agree with you but since most people are calling me out for the opposite reason, I have to do the same sry :[[ )

What does this sentence mean

I want to go for whom I deem the biggest threat to town and that is inf.

Because...?

If I were maf and knew both inf and TWG were inno, surely I would join the TWG lynch train because easy inno kill.

Except I was an easy inno kill too, and when I started to not be, you miraculously became suspicious of TWG, probably for the reasons that you've just implied you'd do if you were mafia

 

[Deleted member 4601]

Mafia has a smaller pool of targets to choose from. Intuitively this would make a mafia kill being saved by the doctor have a higher percentage, but because of the assumption that I made that mafia definitely tried to kill someone last night, the chances are swapped.

Alternatively this might be also due to the chances of the doctor saving someone from the mafia, which is outside of the mafia target pool.

 

[Fog]

If I counted correctly, there are 5 votes against Aqua and 5 votes against Inffy.

*TWG not inffy sadly

 

[Ltin]

VOTECOUNT 4 hours to deadline
Infected_alien8 [2] - Foggy, Aqua
TheWeakGuy48_ [5] - Iggish, HKCaper, Enderfive, CaffeinatedKitty, Oak63
Aqua [5] - Infected_alien8, TheWeakGuy48_, Nottykitten, Unusual_Dood, Mulbery
with 14 players it takes 8 to lynch and 7 to no lynch. On deadline the person with the most votes is lynched.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Well fog said he'd rather get aqua than TWG and oog was suspicious of aqua over TWG earlier so if that all stays the same and nobody else changes votes then I think we're safe for a lynch (and on aqua)

 

[Mooglie]

so im still low key confused about this TWG suspicion post that aqua posted and inf is bringing up here but i felt challenged by aqua's post SO heres all of aqua's posts that have '...' after them on his profile since the ones that didn't had nothing to with TWG from what i could see

Spoiler: aaaaa

Inf is king of shit double bluffs; his opening thingy which he posted where he's trying to look stupidly suspicious on purpose seems, from my knowledge of inf, something he would only do IF actually mafia.

Do you want a lynch or a no lynch and why?
Lynch, although it sucks to be out of the game, if we take out someone suspicious now, it's very likely we'll hit a mafia

If you want a lynch, would you lynch someone at random if no one particularly scummy emerged?
I wouldn't say "random", just the person who is the most "slightly scummy"

Do you think the cults are a threat or not?
eh

Are you a cult leader or not?
In real life, yes. In forum mafia, no.

Dude ofc they know, otherwise how would they know not to lynch one of their own today?

Methinks feigned ignorance is afoot...

Am I the only one who thinks this is inf trying to justify his night killing hip?

It seems he's trying to convince himself he was right in my actions, but then adding the latter part to seem innocent. Maybe I'm overthinking it or it's just worded shit (since inf has a tendency to do so), eitherway it seems pretty suspicious to me

Enderfive analyse it for me bebe

I'm back, the slip up was me just waking up and being tired so saying my instead of your or w/e. The suspicions pretty dumb now that I look back at it, but I'm busy atm so I cba to read back your questions and shit. Just ignore the point if you think it's dumb.

Did I consider the fact he was PR? How was I supposed to know he was cop? Same goes with everyone who voted for him? There was a small chance he was PR, we were unlucky.

2 reasons: 1) You weren't going to get lynched, it was obvious Jivvi was so whether I did or didn't it wouldn't have made a difference, I just wanted to get it over with.
2) The tradition is getting you lynched on day 1 not day 0 smh.

Foggy2406 been really busy recently, which is why I haven't been posting, plus cba to read thru all the shit, tho it seems ntohing important has really come up yet so it doesn't rly matter...

also on the subject of the cult leaders, are both leaders town, or could one leader be mafia?

Inf you seem to be rather all over the place, jumping from person to person throwing accusations in a very aggressive manner. Ngl, that's something I would expect from Hunter not you...

I also want to point out reverse psychology exists; making the belief that hip being killed doesn't make inf look suspicious pointless. I very much suspect inf for wanting to night kill hip if mafia because A) his strong argument against hip on the day 0 may have been part of a ploy to play into day 1 and B) the thing he posted straight after (cba to find the quote again, since I already talked about this), seems to me him trying to awkwardly disassociate himself from this; and C) Apparently people are going to fall for it and support inf purely because "I mean it’s pretty dumb if he went «hurr durr lets vote hip out» then kill him on the night instead, if he is a mafia."
This obviously isn't my only suspicion on inf, or why I'm voting for him, his wording of posts and his attitude this game reek of scum to me, again, still not gonna be very active, for a short while, but just giving my 2 cents. ciao.

I've been strongly for a inf lynch since day 0, the only reason I "eagerly" voted inf then was because I hadn't realised I wasn't voting for him so stuck together a "for reasons previously stated, plus points made by others" vote

Inf you're playing the dumb noob card, it's not that great. It's a very common tactic in mafia, which is why you should always expect the unexpected. The fact that you claim it's such a "great" play and that you're "flattered" I might think you could pull it off, pretty much cements that you're lying through your teeth. If you were actually town you would admit it was a possibility, and move on since until you're lynched there's no way to find out for sure... INSTEAD, you decided to milk it as an impossibility trying to make me look stupid and make your self less of a threat because you're not that good at mafia.

If you're not lynched by the end of this day I give up.

Also for your second point; what?
You've done this as mafia in the past when you were inexperienced, and you even say "you could argue that they're inexperienced". Well yeah, they are and it's a common mistake that mafia in their position make.

super vote infected_alien8 (my vote counts for 3 now)

Is it just me who thinks foggy and inf could both be mafia?

Foggy seems very certain with his hypothesis that inf thought hip was vigilante, which tbh, does seem to have come from no where. To me it looks like foggy is overly determined to push for an inf lynch which makes me wonder if he knows something.

Foggy if you do know something about inf, if you are a cop role or something, would you mind sharing?

What, that you're acting in a really weird jumpy and accusation-y way whilst completely over reacting to small points suggesting your suspicion, like when I mentioned it's possible you were using reverse psychology.

Ngl there are more but quite busy atm, maybe if I'm free will have a better look. But the first page I turn to and I see this, you were being grilled by multiple people and seemed almost desperate to throw suspicion to me using the same point you had previously brought up over and over. The fact you underline it and put it in bold seems almost theatrical you drama nerd. If you were actually townie I odubt you'd try and shift focus onto someone like that, it seems desperate. IDK, I might be wrong, I haven't put much thought into this tbh.

ANYWAY POINT IS, UR ACTING SCUMMY AF NGL WITH UR HUNTER-ESQUE PLAY STYLE SO FUCK YOU SCUMMY MCSCUMFUCK

I agree with ender.
Nottykitten I rated your post confusing because I genuinely didn't understand what you meant btw, although I don't really agree with the whole inf thinking hip is vig bit, I still don't really get your point at all.

I can't find the quote but I'm fairly sure inf said earlier this game his reason for suspecting hip was that he was being awfully quiet, and since inf knows hip very well and knows his play style, he found that scummy af. HOWEVER, last game hip only posted once or twice every day just to vote for people iirc and he was townie, if I'm right and inf did say that (WHICH I SWEAR HE DID, BUT I CAN'T FIND THE QUOTE); that seems pretty damn bs to me.

I just came home from 3 hours of lecture, I opened escr I saw that, I thought that, I wrote it without thinking.

I don't understand how that could even be conceived as scummy unless you thought I was actually trying to convince people he was a cop while knowing full well jivvi was the only cop, which is kinda... stupid?

How's that irrelevant, the reason he was very inactive last game towards the end probably was because there was so little to go on, that's the same with day 0's, he may have been more active day 0 last game but so was I, it's such a medial difference and you were against him with such confidence that he was scummy, it seems forced.

Say what you want about iggish or HK, but if you speak like that to me or my babe EVER again I will gut you!

All non-funny jokes aside, where did this even come from lol? I've been pretty absent from this game I will admit, but I wouldn't say I've followed any trends this game; I had suspicion on inf for day 0 because of how he was acting and you on day 1 when you defended inf so sporadically and OTT.

pretty reasonable, tbh.

Personally I don't hugely suspect notty, after all they've done this defend inf at all cost ignoring any reasoning behind him being scummy while town before in "Let's not explode" or whatever that joke of a game was called. Anyway, I can't really link inf and notty too well, but if someone can give me something they deem suspicious/link-y that'd be swell.

Infected_alien8 [5*] - Foggy, Oak63, Aqua
TheWeakGuy [3] - Iggish, HKCaper, Enderfive
Aqua [2] - Infected_alien8, TheWeakGuy48_
Enderfive [1] - Unusual_Dood
Foggy [1] - Nottykitten

Maybe I'm wrong about notty, regardless of the fact I am the one they are pursuing, as I see a strong connection between inf and TWG after TWG randomly over defended inf earlier, I've been shipping them together. But as I previously stated, I didn't want to ship notty with inf because they did this previously when town while inf was maf.

(Haven't been following super well, so if I'm wrong on this ignore me)

However, I haven't seen notty show much in terms of defence against TWG as well as much in terms of accusation/suspicion. However, even though the chat seems to be moving towards a TWG lynch Notty, still seems adamant about lynching me, even stating:

They state that I am more prone to lynch, this choice of wording makes me feel like they're trying to manipulate people into voting for me as if I'm the guiltiest candidate and the most likely to be lynched, which at this point isn't true, I'd like to say inf is, but the overall opinion seems to be more pointed towards TWG.
It seems to me notty is trying to divert attention away from TWG, by increasing the number of votes on me to match his so suspicion is shifted away from them to me; this to me makes it look like they're trying to help out their mafia buddy.

Thus I take back my previous statement, since I'm positive inf and TWG are both maf, I'll link Notty to TWG too.




ALSO, to those voting TWG, I feel inf is probably a better lynch today and then TWG/Notty tomorrow as inf is (no offence) a much better player, therefore a bigger risk to the town. I feel they're both scummy together, so if one is maf the other one is most definately, I'd rather take out the bigger threat y'know.

so vote inf thnx.

And now inf is playing along with Notty completely okee...

Why do I find you the most guilty, the same reason I'm still voting for you ¬_¬

Also what are you talking about, I've had the same people voting for me/accusing me the entire day, nothing has changed other than notty switched their vote from foggy to me, and again, I have had high suspicion and have had you and TWG linked since he defended you in that one post (how many times do I have to say the same thing?).

I'M NOT EVEN VOTING FOR HIM WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT OMFG REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Also you say my reason for voting you is stupid, and yet I'm mostly voting for you based on how you're acting with prior knowledge of you and also how you play mafia which was EXACTLY your argument against hip except I actually have reasonable evidence to back myself up on where as you didn't.

Oh shit inf, you got me the pressure of that ONE VOTE from YOU, fucking freaked me out dude, I had to quickly act all townie by joining in on the TWG lynch train!!1111

The fact I didn't even realise how stupid your post was the first time you posted it accusing me of doing it to act town because I was under the spotlight when, at that point, you were the only person voting me kinda says a lot about my involvement in this game lmao.

Anyway I fell this pretty much disproves inf's annoying shitty argument he KEEPS BRINGING UP, that's when in chat I initially ANNOUNCED I was suspicious of TWG although I made this post in response to his dumb one: (Which I can't find, nor can I find TWG's post - tbh I'm lazy, you guys know it exists and if you don't and don't believe me go look yourself.)

ANYWAY, When he hard defended inf I wasn't that suspicious I just passed him off as dumb, but then I believe HK or iggish made a post of their opinion on it and that started me finding it incredibly suspicious.

Eitherway, I'm not entitled to tell you my suspicion nor do I see it as particularly suspicious if I did miraculously change my mind on TWG, people can change their minds y'know. Anyway I hope that puts to rest ur dumb argument like the thing about my "slip XD" that you kept bringing up.

Inf if you're going to try and get me lynched at least hit me with some reasonable arguments, the only reason I didn't instantly resolve them was because busy so constantly bringing them up even when you totally knew how flawed they were is stupid.

I mean firstly to argue with Notty's point, the thing is I have been pro inf lynch as I think he is the better choice, the fact I find TWG suspicious isn't even relevant to me at this point since I want to see inf lynched. I could completely ignore TWG, and you would come up with some other argument about how I am suspicious for not thinking he is suspicious so it's rather frivolous arguing with you.

And onto Mulb as everyone else has made it quite clear, surely your reasoning is wrong? (normally I'd agree with you but since most people are calling me out for the opposite reason, I have to do the same sry :[[ )
If I were maf and knew both inf and TWG were inno, surely I would join the TWG lynch train because easy inno kill.
Thing is, I don't want an easy lynch because I'm town and I want to go for whom I deem the biggest threat to town and that is inf.

idk if multiquote messed up since these were all from seperate tabs BUT that's all i think
go look for it my children

 

[Mooglie]

(as in '...' since the message was too long to display on the profile message section thing since some of his short posts did end in that too)

 

[Mooglie]

(theres an aqua quote about TWG 5 up from the bottom but that was posted like 17 hours ago or something so idk if thats too recent for what y'all are looking for)

 

[Infected_alien8_]

(theres an aqua quote about TWG 5 up from the bottom but that was posted like 17 hours ago or something so idk if thats too recent for what y'all are looking for)

Yeah it is

I'm too busy to read through each quote but I scanned through and couldn't see his suspicion post that he supposedly made

lol

 

[Nottykitten]

Mafia has a smaller pool of targets to choose from. Intuitively this would make a mafia kill being saved by the doctor have a higher percentage, but because of the assumption that I made that mafia definitely tried to kill someone last night, the chances are swapped.

Mafia consist of 5/14 of the people the doctor could protect. That leaves 9/14 people that the Mafia could kill. However the fact that 5/14 of the people the doc protects are guarenteed to not be the one the Mafia kills has no impact as far as I see. Chances that the doctor chooses one of the 9 people the Mafia does kill remains 1/14th. Same with the Vig so I thought they'd be the same.


Also I'll repeat again, if things remain the same as is right now Aqua is going to switch to save himself(which anyone role would do). So you might aswell pretend there is an extra vote on Weak.