Trouble in the West: Pirates vs Cowboys [Finished]
- Thread starter Prizyms
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Sploorky
Member
While I admit I don't read/skim the story, I'm still extensively weary. Aren't italics supposed to be 100% flavor?
Considering the town wants to lynch so badly, this feels like the smartest lynch to me.
Considering the town wants to lynch so badly, this feels like the smartest lynch to me.
JKangaroo
Your Local, Neighborhood Marsupial
Of course, we can't safely rely on that single line of flavour, story text, because we don't know if that's really the case.
Or if they actually were unknown initially but becomes sober and finds other Mafia members half-way through the day...
Or other random things that we may not even know about so...
Although I wouldn't count on it, and I think Prizyms may be hinting that the Mafia don't know that... I can't really say for certain, so I will concede that it does somewhat make Oak feel suspicious, because it does feel strange, but it goes again somewhat into that sort of manipulation category currently going on in today's voting process which I'm not a fan of.
JKangaroo
Your Local, Neighborhood Marsupial
Who can really say?
Only the hosts know, and unless the hosts want to intercede on that topic (which I doubt they would because that may hint at some unreleased mechanics), then we can't say for sure about anything really.
I think it may be safer to keep Oak in a FoS for future nights though should such a wording be deemed suspicious to the person themselves. Same could be said for everyone else's, but really its all really weak and just... well... "meh."
Sploorky
Member
Yea its all super weak imo, but most day 1 callouts are. I will gladly say I think this vote makes more sense than other ones going on right now, so while it may have an inkling of truth to it, I'll stand by it.
I will stick with a no-lynch for now, and that decision has been strengthened by Fiesta's statistics and logic, but if I absolutely had to choose someone to lynch it would be Oak. Leaning slitly towards switching my vote to him, but that's probably a rash move this early as it could start a bandwagon (cough, and that TOTALLY hasn't happened once or twice already) this early on. I also see that as mega slip-up, @Old_Man_Oak_63 tagging again for increased feel of urgency, could you elaborate?
Enderfive
sarcasm incarnate
Why a Lynch at Day 0 is preferrable
a speech by Endersteve5 regarding a lynch or a No Lynch at Day 0 in "Trouble in the West: Pirates vs Cowboys"
a speech by Endersteve5 regarding a lynch or a No Lynch at Day 0 in "Trouble in the West: Pirates vs Cowboys"
Day 0 is always a time when there is very little to go off, there are practically no leads and power roles usually don't have any information or possibility to use their powers either. Many might feel that a No Lynch would be a much more reasonable option and that is what usually happens. And they have a point. A No Lynch is the safe option, with no possibility of lynching a town member right at the start.
But should we always No Lynch? After all, that is the safe option!
No. We shouldn't. And we won't. On any given day, any reasonable townie would support a lynch, except if it's Day 0. Why? Because the town can't win if they don't kill off the mafia.
So I ask you, why is Day 0 so much different? The only difference is that there are hardly any leads to go off. But as you may be well aware, leads don't always point to the right person. There is always the possibility of lynching a townie, doesn't matter if it's Day 0 or Day 6.
More so, in this particular game, people already have strong suspicions about who might be scum, which lessens the "No leads" argument. Yes, we don't have evidence. However, people rarely have any concrete evidence even in the later days. Waiting for evidence to pop up is suicide by inaction. Not if done only on Day 0, but if the policy carries over to the other days, then it is. And if the policy doesn't carry over, then it's a flawed policy, due to which it should be abandoned.
Now, I've talked about why Day 0 shouldn't be much different from the rest of the days. However, I haven't brought any points supporting a lynch on Day 0 in particular. So that's exactly what I am going to do now.
A No Lynch on any day, even Day 0, is a free ticket for the mafia to kill a townie.
Pretty self-explanatory, if you think about it. If we No Lynch, we are simply sitting here, doing nothing, waiting for the clock to tick to midnight and letting the mafia kill one of our own without fighting back. There is only one situation where this is justified for the town, and that is a MyLo. I strongly doubt we are in a MyLo at this moment. We fight back on any other day, why not give ourselves a headstart and take the first kill for ourselves? Yes, the possibility of lynching scum right away is low, but I'll take low chance over no chance every day.
The mafia cannot influence our votes right now, as they could on any other day.
Ok, I'll admit, this is based mostly on speculation, but I feel that it is more likely than not that the mafia don't know who the other mafia are at this moment. That means they can't influence the vote. Let me explain: on any other day, the mafia know who the other mafia are. That means they are not going to start a vote on their fellow mafia members, and they're less likely to join in on the wagon as well, which lowers the chances of a successful lynch. However, we probably don't have that issue to deal with at the moment, which means that we might actually have a better chance of lynching a mafia member today than we do in the following few days. I don't know about you, but I'm very willing to go even for a random lynch today, because today we're all equal. Tomorrow they will have an advantage over us, and I'd like to use that equality on the one day that we have it.
The math, baby, the math!
Let's assume that we lynch a townie today, because if we decide to lynch, that's the most likely option. If that happens, then we actually have a better chance of lynching a non-townie tomorrow. It narrows down the list of suspects, meaning that we have less townies to lynch possibly, while still having the same amount of scum in the game, which means we have a better chance of lynching a non-town.
And in case we don't lynch a townie today... I don't feel like I need to explain why this would be good.
So there you have it, the reasons why I would very much prefer a lynch as opposed to a No Lynch. And due to that, I'll cast my vote.
Explanation: as I said, I'm even willing to lynch randomly at this point, because the benefits of lynching someone weigh up the risks in my opinion. And since Sploorky found a really nice slip by OMO, then that's what I'm going to go with. He is 100% certain that the mafia don't know who the other mafia are, while we only have speculations and theories, nothing concrete pointing towards the mafia not knowing their fellow mafia.
vote Old_Man_Oak_63
Kcrimp
Finally some time to read the thread! But I'm on my phone so short response from me.
If we're going to lynch someone, Notty would be my choice because she is so talented at being anti-town and it would be better safe than sorry.
Vote Nottykitten
Finally some time to read the thread! But I'm on my phone so short response from me.
If we're going to lynch someone, Notty would be my choice because she is so talented at being anti-town and it would be better safe than sorry.
Vote Nottykitten
Nottykitten
Nomnomnom kitteh!
I am the worst Anti-town evernot really but ok. When trying to ruin the town and lynch the imporant PR's, I not only managed to lynch a mafia(myuser) but also got a third party SK(priz) lynched.
Conclusion: even when I'm anti-town I am helping the town. (I'm not though)
Fiestaguy
The man with 8 fingers.
That sounded more scummy than town-ish. Lynching experienced players is as bad as it is good. The experienced players can be town just aswell. Experience is a weak factor.
This is not "Better safe than sorry" This is trying to screw over players that can be VERY helpful. And taking the statistics in account it just sounds like you're creating a bandwagon on a less obvious player.
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