Trouble in the West: Pirates vs Cowboys [Finished]
- Thread starter Prizyms
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I would think there's another killing other than the Pirates, though they probably chose not to act (for whatever reason) or managed to get role-blocked or their target protected (or they need some weird prior condition to kill like vampire). Now as for notty's death, I'm not sure how much evidence we can gather from that. There's a fair amount of people whom were suspicious of notty/wanted to get rid of her just because of last game, though it's all we have to off for now. So we can muse about this, voice some suspicions, and see what else happens today.
I am in a room called 'Smallest Crappiest Inn' with 3 other people. If anyone else is in a room can one of you come out like I have and let us know the name and how many people in the inn."
If we do this we have
1. Knowledge on how many rooms.
2. How many people in each room
3. A spokesperson from each room that can relay information for the rest of the inn.
That means that we level the playing field if there are mafia in the rooms.
If we do this we have
1. Knowledge on how many rooms.
2. How many people in each room
3. A spokesperson from each room that can relay information for the rest of the inn.
That means that we level the playing field if there are mafia in the rooms.
Aww maaan....Another games with inns and I'm not a part of it?!i >:c
I was actually really hoping I could be in an inn or something this time 'round, as it'd be much more interesting in general, and less boring during the nights
JKangaroo
Your Local, Neighborhood Marsupial
I would go as far as to say that essentially everyone here would be a least a bit apprehensive about Notty.
The vast majority (excluding Sam and Swate) either hosted (in the case of GmK), or took part in playing the previous season of Bloody Masquerade, and we all know how that turned out: Notty, a seemingly trustable individual, whom was third-party to a degree, ends up switching to Mafia-Assassin somewhere Day 4 with him already being "confirmed" good by the cop, tim on a previous day, as well as Jivvi's matchmaking on a previous day before the conversion.
He was able to hide through previously correct confirmations and slip to the final 3 almost bringing an Assassin victory.
It was well-played, and so i wouldn't doubt Notty would be attacked early on to remove that slyness.
It doesn't leave much to go on, seeing as basically ALL of us were from Masq and saw this happen (Swate and Sam could be included if they read the thread, which I do believe Swate did, not sure about Sam), so everyone basically knows of Notty's abilities.
JKangaroo
Your Local, Neighborhood Marsupial
Ah ha! Inns!
See, I knew it @Ooglie101 , knew that there was going to be some kind of inn mechanic like GmK did in Masq.
I mean, what good would there be a Wild West themed Mafia game without some kind of saloon-mechanic in the mix where players gather to talk?
Is this going to be a regular thing now with closed set-up games, because having these little inn-systems sounds fun. ^-^ I wish I was in one though. :< I feel left out of the action.
(Triple post, sorry </3)
Another thing, I think the inns would probably have similar ratios to last game....I know I'm kind of going out on a limb with no evidence, but I think maybe....just maybe....Meh, I'm crazy, don't listen to me.
Another thing, I think the inns would probably have similar ratios to last game....I know I'm kind of going out on a limb with no evidence, but I think maybe....just maybe....Meh, I'm crazy, don't listen to me.
HypeBurst
Just Fabulous
Guys, Ive been doused in gasoline, meaning there's an arsonist role out there. Arsonists are extremely dangerous at later parts of the game, and we should focus on killing him/her off early before they can douse many people and kill a group of us at once.
Oak Milk
Kill Hungry Thirsty Dead
Well, there go half of my theories, for anyone wondering about my post yesterday saying that I knew the pirates, I didn't have a clue, it was a bait to see who would respond and who wouldn't. Much like the rest of my posting that day, I can honestly say that I didn't believe a word or would have used anything what I said as true evidence to support a lynch on Day 0. It's reactions and opinions I wanted, as we can compare these as time goes on.
Of course Notty dying screws up any theories I had, but that arsonist sounds dangerous, Hype you better clean yourself up, you're a real mess
Of course Notty dying screws up any theories I had, but that arsonist sounds dangerous, Hype you better clean yourself up, you're a real mess
JKangaroo
Your Local, Neighborhood Marsupial
I had to look up what the arsonist role does, and jeeze, that's actually really powerful should they live into the later stages of the game with zero to a few of their targets getting killed. They could easily wipe out a whole party of players in a single swoop, which could cripple a lot of players, theories, and parties.
If there are roles like the arsonist running about, then I'm not that surprised only 1 person died tonight. Arsonist is third-party, right? If so, there could be a lot of other roles that aren't direct in their actions, like cop or vigilante can perform their action with instant results when the night ends, but instead are accumulative or do something differently.
Are these the kinds of roles that Prizyms meant by "crazy," because if so, I'm kind of scared. ._.
If there are roles like the arsonist running about, then I'm not that surprised only 1 person died tonight. Arsonist is third-party, right? If so, there could be a lot of other roles that aren't direct in their actions, like cop or vigilante can perform their action with instant results when the night ends, but instead are accumulative or do something differently.
Are these the kinds of roles that Prizyms meant by "crazy," because if so, I'm kind of scared. ._.
I am in the inn The Damp Attic Saloon.
Total members: 4
(AND YES I COUNTED CORRECTLY THIS TIME IT WON'T BE LIKE THE LAST TIME WHEN I SCREWED UP THE VOTECOUNT THRICE
)And holy shit, we have an arsonist out there? Woah.
JKangaroo
Your Local, Neighborhood Marsupial
It should, but it can't.
We had 1 death, leaving us with 19 players, which still leaves a big enough pool to find virtually a single role (that is, if there is only 1 arsonist, which I doubt for something so powerful), and honestly, 1/19 does not seem like a reasonable thing to start searching for; it's like a needle in a haystack.
Arsonist is powerful, yes, but we basically have no evidence or leads (except maybe 77's thing) and it could end up basically just as a random-lynch like on Day 0. It would probably be best that we keep a sharp eye out for the arsonist and essentially place them in the same category as anti-town, and go from there.
There's also still the possibility of the Arsonist being town-sided with Mafia/anti-town characteristics of roles, like Digi's Vampire or Ltin's Mime from Masquerade, but even then it's really too deadly to not be taken out. (Unless it's actually some other role or has a twist or Hype is the actual Arsonist claiming to be doused but all of those are really silly and seem a tad improbable except for the possible "twist" which Prizyms promised us would be in some roles at the game's start)
At the moment I feel the Arsonist thing is a dead end, but it's actually beneficial now that we know of something to watch out for.
That's a total of 8 plays in inns so far.I am in the inn The Damp Attic Saloon.
Total members: 4
(AND YES I COUNTED CORRECTLY THIS TIME IT WON'T BE LIKE THE LAST TIME WHEN I SCREWED UP THE VOTECOUNT THRICE
And holy shit, we have an arsonist out there? Woah.
Last time (I really don't like comparing it to last time, since so many things could be different) Half of the players were involved in inns (13/26), and so far we have 8/20. Assuming there is a manager (or managers?), that makes 9/20, which is almost half. So, meh....
Myeh...true....I just don't like the thought of someone out there who eventually could kill a bunch of us on a whim....
It may be time to try and have people voice out semi-serious suspicions based of day 0. We didn't really gain much from during the night. We know that there are at least two 4-people inns, we know we have an arsonist running around, and we've lost our donut shopkeeper (aka roleblocker). The only lead we have on mafia/third-party is 'whom who would want to potentially kill hype', which could easily be an attempt to mislead us. We can start from this point and work from there, or we could wait a bit and actually see how everyone else whom hasn't responded to today yet react. I doubt any investigative role would want a death sentence on them this early on in the game, so we probably won't get too much more info than this, though who knows what sort of roles we could have running around us.
That's a really shallow accusation and you know it xP I ain't no arsonist, I've got just as much proof for my defense as you do for your accusation.
Anyway, I like doing maths too so I'll try my best. High chances are that there is no killing role other than the Mafia from there being one death. However, there's still the chance that there is an external killing role - if this is based on pure luck, then the chance of a person being attacked and defended is around 5%. However, this is if the killing role is third-party. I've got no clue if there are third-party roles involved, and I haven't really played or researched that much on what I'm about to say so I've got no clue if this exists, but if the killing role is Mafia then the chance is slightly, slightly higher. Just slightly. In Plane Troubles, there were three Mafia in ten people, so I'm assuming six Mafia with twenty people. If this is the case and the killing role were Mafia, then the chance of a Mafia killing role increases to roughly 7.1% off the top of my head.
Tl;dr taking in all possibilities, and assuming six Mafia and a Doctor/other roleblocker role:
Chance of third-party killing role = roughly 5%
Chance of Mafia killing role (if it exists, not sure) = roughly 7.1%
Therefore chance of killing role = 12.1%, chance of no killing role = 87.9%
That's too early an assumption. We would never know if any killing role was roleblocked on N1, and neither do we know if any killing roles abstained from killing. Plus we have the arsonist as well. Though I would say if we have an arsonist it could be possible to have a smaller number of killing roles to balance the game out... Or not. We don't know anything much. I would say we should avoid venturing into the topic of finding out the possible number of killing roles because it wouldn't do much and is basically a dead end, a.k.a. waste of time.
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