Zambie Mafia - Day 4 - Game Over - Town Victory

[Enderfive]

Faliara has a very good chance to hit a mafia and that mafia can still hit the samurai.

I didn't forget, I simply didn't include because they're both extremely improbably scenarios. According to Fali's own role description that she herself provided, she needs to preselect her targets for using an action on them the next night. The only way she's hitting mafia is by having ignored the suggestion to mark me for action use on the following night and somehow managed to hit a mafia instead. First part is possible, but somewhat unlikely in my opinion, the second part has the numbers against her. Put those two together and I highly doubt Fali's going to be of much use to the town against the mafia in the next night.

As for mafia hitting a samurai... why would they, when they can just take out the confirmed townies instead? Ltin for example, he's basically a free target begging for a hit at this point. The bulletproof vest might hold them off for a night, then the optimal play for mafia and survivor both would be to force a no-lynch quickly and win the game the next day.

And I hope it goes without saying: this is, of course, in Vatu's fantasy world. Just in case someone wants to call a "slip" on me.

 

[Samlen]

Votecount - The Standoff

Enderfive - Vatumok (1/4)
Vatumok - Enderfive (1/4)
With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch or no-lynch

Spoiler: 7 Living 9 Dead

1. CaffeinatedKitty - Mad Scientist - Killed Night 1
2. Ooglie101
3. hipman500 - Cop - Killed Night 1
4. Ltin
5. Nottykitten - Doctor - Killed Night 2
6. Infected_alien8_
7. Enderfive
8. Oak63 - Oracle - Killed Night 2
9. Mulbery - Detective - Killed Night 2
10. Runemen4 - Replaced by Geekenstein
11. Timdood3 - Drunk - Killed by Suicide Bomber Day 2
12. Faliara
13. JKangaroo - ? Turned Zombie - Killed Night 3
14. Vatumok
15. MarsKid - Thief - Lynched Day 1
16. Dessern5 - Suicide Bomber - Lynched Day 2

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Fali can you confirm what you can do tonight? Can you shoot anyone or only one person who you targeted beforehand, because I don't think you ever confirmed that?

 

[Vatumok]

I didn't forget, I simply didn't include because they're both extremely improbably scenarios. According to Fali's own role description that she herself provided, she needs to preselect her targets for using an action on them the next night. The only way she's hitting mafia is by having ignored the suggestion to mark me for action use on the following night and somehow managed to hit a mafia instead. First part is possible, but somewhat unlikely in my opinion, the second part has the numbers against her. Put those two together and I highly doubt Fali's going to be of much use to the town against the mafia in the next night.

As for mafia hitting a samurai... why would they, when they can just take out the confirmed townies instead? Ltin for example, he's basically a free target begging for a hit at this point. The bulletproof vest might hold them off for a night, then the optimal play for mafia and survivor both would be to force a no-lynch quickly and win the game the next day.

And I hope it goes without saying: this is, of course, in Vatu's fantasy world. Just in case someone wants to call a "slip" on me.

Fali's role description was kinda vague, I'm not sure if the waiting only goes for tracking or for killing too because in the OP it says the zombie hunter can track OR kill each night. Faliara should give us more insight in this.

Either way, if you are the only zombie left then it's in no way town's favour to keep you alive. Because the next day there will be another zombie, you will infect because you must, thinking you will kill a mafia is severly underestimating you. Meaning that town loses a player to the zombies while there are still 2 mafia. It's almost the same situation as today but we don't know who the zombie is and there's 1 town less, maybe 2 less if the mafia kill a town too.

 

[Enderfive]

Fali's role description was kinda vague, I'm not sure if the waiting only goes for tracking or for killing too because in the OP it says the zombie hunter can track OR kill each night.

from the way she explained it i did get the impression that she had to wait for both of them

Either way, if you are the only zombie left then it's in no way town's favour to keep you alive. Because the next day there will be another zombie, you will infect because you must, thinking you will kill a mafia is severly underestimating you.

>implying we can choose whether we kill or infect
it's samlen who rolls the dice on that, so far the dice have been good but that's not gonna last

Meaning that town loses a player to the zombies while there are still 2 mafia.

no there's one zombie at most, assuming fali takes the shot (and why wouldn't she) and 1 mafia when we take one down

It's almost the same situation as today but we don't know who the zombie is and there's 1 town less, maybe 2 less if the mafia kill a town too.

it really isn't like that and i do believe i already explained it and i'm way too sleep-deprived to think of anything proper to put here right now

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Why'd you say you thought the Lone Survivor had a night power when it doesn't Vat?

3) No idea, just regular survive with any side but with a special night power?

 

[Vatumok]

Why'd you say you thought the Lone Survivor had a night power when it doesn't Vat?

I said that because 1. I don't know what the Oracle does and 2. because I didn't want to give away I'm the survivor yet. That's why I just gave a generic answer.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I said that because 1. I don't know what the Oracle does and 2. because I didn't want to give away I'm the survivor yet. That's why I just gave a generic answer.

But why would it give away you're the Lone Survivor just by not including the "night power" bit? I thought the reason we answered those questions was so that when the real ones died we knew what they did. And if I'm interpreting what Jk said correctly, he did exactly that:

Lonely Survivor... I feel like is just a survivor. Honestly the name just makes me think of that one indie game from a few years back:
http://lonesurvivor.co.uk
Coincidentally, that had weird zombie creatures in it too. So im gonna say probably has some kinda hidden zombie mechanics because of that.
Like with whoever had the idea that they "hide" from being infected.

Or by "just a survivor" did he mean the Town of Salem equivalent or something (which kills people right?)

 

[Faliara]

Sorry, school's started up again so I haven't been paying as much attention :x This may take awhile.

 

[Faliara]

So Endy's a zombie and either Vatumok's lying out of his ass or Endy is lying out of his ass and is trying to get us to kill the Lonely Survivor.

Otherwise, yeah, there's a lot of waiting involved. I hunt (stalk) one person per night, and then either tab (test for zombie) or kill. And I gotta go see yaaaaaaaaa

 

[Infected_alien8_]

So Endy's a zombie and either Vatumok's lying out of his ass or Endy is lying out of his ass and is trying to get us to kill the Lonely Survivor.

Otherwise, yeah, there's a lot of waiting involved. I hunt (stalk) one person per night, and then either tab (test for zombie) or kill. And I gotta go see yaaaaaaaaa

Who did ya stalk last night?

 

[Faliara]

I stalked Vatumok. He did not visit anyone last night.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I stalked Vatumok. He did not visit anyone last night.

So it IS that kind of Track.

Okay, so that's interesting. Vat's not the Mafia Scout then, surely. And doesn't the Godfather do the killing usually? Which would suggest Vat isn't mafia, and therefore telling the truth about being the Lone Survivor...

 

[Ltin]

So that means, ender is lying!
Right?

 

[Infected_alien8_]

So that means, ender is lying!
Right?

Maybe, unless Vat just didn't use his power last night in fear of hitting Samurai or being tracked or something, or if the Scout carries out the kill, but I'm kinda more inclined to believe Ender is just a liar liar pants on fire right now!!!

 

[Enderfive]

at this point i doubt the scout is inclined to use his power much, since most of the roles are already known to him and the ones that aren't might include the samurai

as for the killing, i thought that since everyone else had a night action in the mafia, the godfather would be the one to carry out the kill? i don't know this particular game's mechanics beyond what is told us, of course, but that would be logical to me

also, it would be decidedly stupid of me to try and lynch the survivor, since he could team with us and we'd have an easier time winning

the only reason i'm not doing so is because i know 100% that vatu is lying and while i can't be 100% certain in my conclusion that he's mafia, it does raise the probability extremely high for me


in any case, whether or not he's the survivor is ultimately unimportant when it comes to Ltin's, Inffy's and Ooglie's choice that i presented to them

 

[Vatumok]

I definitely believe that Ender voted on me because he thinks/thought I may be mafia, it's very advantageous for him to lynch mafia today. However, more importantly than that is he has to stay alive today or zombies die out and me claiming survivor makes me an easy target too. His story is full of holes, I don't see how Ltin can host a party if he's the zombie leader for example. If there was another zombie there is no reason for him to act like this. I agree that lynching the survivor doesn't help you but getting lynched yourself means it's game over.

I can understand the mafia problem for town but I think there are still tools (power roles) to deal with them, not killing off zombies now is extremely reckless and will probably turn into a mafia or zombie win.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I'm not gonna lie I am so confused right now. If I have any strengths in this game it is being sensitive to very very general vibes on people and using it so scumhunt, not being all logical and specific and making cases for people based on actual evidence, so in this situation I feel, as a player, kind of hopeless and tangled in a web of conspiracies, because my gut isn't really helping much at this point. I think Ender is telling the truth, but I also don't think Vat is telling the truth, and I think it makes sense that Ender is the last Zombie and is doing this since it's his only chance to win, and I think it also makes sense that he's being very truthful, so...

I can also be pretty decent at following actions along and seeing what's likely going to happen but there are so many darn variables and lies and things that could be hidden that I am REALLY struggling to know what is the best thing to do here, and I feel like the answer is super obvious and it's RIGHT near my face and that I just need one more puzzle piece and then I can turn and be like, OOOOHHHH. But for now, I have no idea. Sorry. Someone with a more suited brain for this situation needs to fly in and help me pls

Anyway, Oog I feel like you need to say something because I don't know what it's going to do but I think it's going to clear at least SOMETHING up in my brain!!!

Also Ender can you explain again why you aren't claiming a role please?

 

[Ltin]

Also Ender can you explain again why you aren't claiming a role please?

Yea what were you before you were a zombie?

 

[Enderfive]

I don't see how Ltin can host a party if he's the zombie leader for example.

* The Zombie Leader is either Inffy or Ooglie.

If there was another zombie there is no reason for him to act like this.

Sure there is, if no zombie dies today, we win. If any of us does, however, we go into a night phase and can end up losing the game, depending on how the game goes from there.

Also Ender can you explain again why you aren't claiming a role please?

Yea what were you before you were a zombie?

Why I won't offer proof that I am not the Zombie Leader: when it comes time to hardclaim, Inffy will pick one out of the Blacksmith and the Samurai and Ooglie will pick another. My Leader will inevitably make a false claim and will claim what I was before being turned. For that reason, I will not undermine my Leader's claim prematurely by claiming it myself.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Well oog hasn't CC'd my last townie claim which is why I'm confused as to whether or not, from my POV, he's in on your scheme or not.

Oog speak pls

 

[Ltin]

well the way i see it, until you claim i cannot trust you are telling the truth.
If you are telling the truth then the best option is probably to go with if. If you aren't telling the truth then perhaps it is just best to vote for you?

 

[Enderfive]

well the way i see it, until you claim i cannot trust you are telling the truth.
If you are telling the truth then the best option is probably to go with if. If you aren't telling the truth then perhaps it is just best to vote for you?

I won't offer a claim beyond what I've already claimed.

I still think that even if I was lying and things were as Vatu says they are (they aren't), it would still be most beneficial for townies to vote out a mafia. If we lynch a mafia, we move into the night with one zombie and one mafia to four townies (I'm counting the Survivor under Town in this paragraph). Fali probably is not going to shoot the Survivor, but I will attempt to infect someone and the remaining mafioso will kill someone. Probably me, because in this scenario, there is no one protecting me and I am without doubt the bigger threat to mafia. Depending on the outcome of the infect roll, you'll be left with either five or four players, with one zombie, one mafia and three townies, or one mafia and three townies, respectively. If there's five players left, you lynch the zombie and the game moves into the night, where Fali will shoot the remaining mafia, having tracked him the previous night. Town wins. If there's four players, you lynch the mafioso, Town wins.

If, however, we lynch me in Vatu's imaginary scenario you'll be left with six players alive during the night, the mafia kills either Fali or you, Fali can't shoot a mafia because he preselected Vatu, apparently, and in this scenario Vatu is the Survivor, which would mean bringing the playercount down to four by the start of the day, making the mafia win instantly, and if Fali doesn't shoot, the optimal play for both the Survivor and the mafia is to lynch one of the two remaining townies, making the mafia win the game with the Survivor. There is no way to win for the townies here.

There are ways lynching me will go wrong for the Town, sure, and I will be hoping it does, but the important thing to note here is the fact that there are more scenarios and likelier scenarios for the Town win if we lynch a mafia today, instead of me, which means that for the duration of this day, our goals should match.

If you're unsure about voting Vatu because of his Survivor claim, we can always just go for Geek, who I believe is the Godfather.

 

[Ltin]

If you're unsure about voting Vatu because of his Survivor claim, we can always just go for Geek, who I believe is the Godfather.

I can dig it.

 

[Ltin]

Waitwaitwait
Who killed Jk?