Tavern Arcana - Mafia Win

[Iggish]

Ok, I'm back home now but I kind of forget what I was going to say.

Basically we should lynch Ender because he is confirmed anti-town and as a result, we won't mislynch. By lynching him, we will give Danni another night to get info and so reduce the possibility of mislynching tomorrow as well. As we could be in a mylo situation, not mislynching is imperative. Alternatively, we could use that info to see if Danni is lying.

Personally, I don't see any negatives with this plan for anyone except the mafia.
Ender dies and wins like he wants
The town gets more info regarding the cop and who is innocent and so is less likely to mislynch

 

[Iggish]

1. The situation will still be the same for town next day, so the "we didn't mislynch day 5" award won't get you far.
2. If we lynch Ender instead of you Day 5, I have high doubts a dead fool and role cop will make much as a different when we are choosing who to lynch Day 6.

But we'd receive a guilty / innocent report from Danni, which would thin down the pool of suspects.

 

[Unusual_Dood]

But we'd receive a guilty / innocent report from Danni, which would thin down the pool of suspects.

And what if Danni got killed?

 

[Enderfive]

And what if Danni got killed?

if i help you lynch a maf today, will you help me tomorrow?

 

[Iggish]

And what if Danni got killed?

But then we'd get myusername to shadow Danni an... ah, I see what the problem is, I'm depending on the fact that Myuser is town but in fact, he remains in the pool of potential scummy people.
Yeah nevermind, I don't think it would work.

 

[Unusual_Dood]

if i help you lynch a maf today, will you help me tomorrow?

Yes if you help us lynch a mafia, I will atleast put my vote on you tomorrow.

 

[Enderfive]

unvote

vote Iggish

 

[Iggish]

I will atleast put my vote on you tomorrow.

What's different about tomorrow compared to today?

 

[Iggish]

unvote

vote Iggish

Uh, I was afraid something like this was going to happen. What's your reason for thinking I am scum?

 

[Iggish]

Having a godfather when there isn't a cop is pretty much useless. Unless anyone counterclaim Danni, he is proven. We can't prove Danni more than this since if we lynch Ender, the mafias will kill dess and we don't know if it was Danni who did it or someone who are trying to get him lynched.

Also, I do not think that this is necessarily true. Mul's role was The Devil. This implies an evil card. In this instance, if investigated by Dess and Roob, Mulb could show up with another, non-suspicious tarot card.

I don't think a vanilla cop needs to be in this game at all, and just taking for granted that Danni is town, seems like a very dangerous strategy, especially considering that he defended Notty.

 

[Unusual_Dood]

What's different about tomorrow compared to today?

Let's say there are 4 townies, 2 mafias and a fool. If we immidietly lynch Ender there will be 2 mafias against 3 townies. That would mean that ALL the townies will have to hit the mafia to lynch a mafia. If one townie votes on the wrong person the mafias win (see below).

Townie (3/3) - Mafia, Mafia, Townie
Mafia (2/3) - Townie, Townie

And this has to be prevented twice.

If Ender is not lynched first day, and he tries to help the town we can allow 1 townie to vote for on a townie. The election would be less influenced by the mafias (see below).

Townie (4/4) - Mafia, Mafia, Townie
Mafia (3/4) - The Fool, Townie, Townie, Townie

Also, Ender has no downsides with trying to help town. If we lynch a mafia we will lynch him next and he wins. If we mislynch, mafias will use his vote next day to gain majority and he will also win.

 

[Iggish]

Ender has no downsides with trying to help town. If we lynch a mafia we will lynch him next and he wins.

Yes he does, as you could easily not keep your word. Why would you lynch him tomorrow over a mafia if we have a good idea of who the mafia is?
You said that we shouldn't just delay the day, so surely lynching Ender and waiting for another day would be doing just that?

 

[Unusual_Dood]

Also, I do not think that this is necessarily true. Mul's role was The Devil. This implies an evil card. In this instance, if investigated by Dess and Roob, Mulb could show up with another, non-suspicious tarot card.

The room closes in on Mulbery and puts them in a noose. The card that falls out of their hand is The Devil.

Win Condition: Living Mafia players make up half or more of the living players without any possible threats
> Passive:
Alignment appears as town to any investigative roles
Has the final say on Mafia Night Kill

How will he appear "town" to a vanilla or role cop?

I don't think a vanilla cop needs to be in this game at all, and just taking for granted that Danni is town, seems like a very dangerous strategy, especially considering that he defended Notty.

The reason he kept Notty alive was so he could check her alignment, and that should also be considered. Especially since he specifically said so then, and probably had no idea he was going to claim cop later in the game if he was mafia.

 

[Enderfive]

alright, if we assume that danni's claim is honest and there are two maf remaining, here's what's going to happen:

unu votes iggish, because both myu and iggish should be confirmed non-town in his eyes

myu votes iggish, because both unu and iggish should be confirmed non-town in his eyes

danni votes iggish, because him flipping maf will (sort of) validate his cop claim

the game moves into night 6 with six players alive

danni is most likely killed, because the last thing the remaining maf needs is being confirmed as such or the other guy being confirmed as town (unu and myu are last remaining suspects at this point)

the game moves into day 6 with five players remaining, one of them maf

i desperately hope that the town doesn't fuck me over for no reason after i've basically handed them the win

game moves into night 7, dess or twg is killed

game moves into day 8, unu and myu vote each other, leaving dess or twg, depending on which one was killed the previous night, to decide the game

 

[TheWeakGuy48_]

Well shit I just lost my whole post, I'll need some time to write it down AGAIN

 

[Enderfive]

Uh, I was afraid something like this was going to happen. What's your reason for thinking I am scum?

there are two things i'd expect from a maf after a cop claim in this game

you have done both

i might tell you what those things are, but not unless the majority really wants me to

 

[Unusual_Dood]

Yes he does, as you could easily not keep your word. Why would you lynch him tomorrow over a mafia if we have a good idea of who the mafia is?

That is up to Ender of course, but so far he seems to believe me.

You said that we shouldn't just delay the day, so surely lynching Ender and waiting for another day would be doing just that?

I don't understand this question. Can you explain? Also, I don't remember saying anything about delaying the day, so can you quote that, in case I have just forgotten.

 

[Iggish]

How will he appear "town" to a vanilla or role cop?

By appearing as a different tarot card.

The reason he kept Notty alive was so he could check her alignment, and that should also be considered. Especially since he specifically said so then, and probably had no idea he was going to claim cop later in the game if he was mafia.

But what was the point of that? Either way, Danni most likely wouldn't (and didn't) out himself anyway.

Actually yeah, that's a good point that he wouldn't have known that there wasn't a vanilla cop role if he was mafia, so it doesn't make that much sense that he would lead up claiming cop if he would be counter claimed.

Alright, basically, I find it likely that Danni is in fact telling the truth as there is evidence that points towards it, but I don't think that it should just be taken for granted that he and TWG are inno.

 

[Unusual_Dood]

I don't understand this question..

sentence*

 

[Iggish]

I don't understand this question. Can you explain?

What's the point of lynching ender tomorrow when we could just lynch the mafia instead and finish the game (implying that there are two maf left)?

 

[Enderfive]

to be fair, i'm perfectly willing to vote either unu or myu as well, if any of the "confirmed" townies feels like they're a bigger suspect right now

 

[Iggish]

We also don't really need to lynch you since for us it will only delay our problem. By lynching you, myuser will probably get killed at night, and will be at the exact same situation just one antitown and townie dead (and no I don't buy the kill part of your role), and this for a player who helped mafias earlier in the game.

 

[Iggish]

but I don't think that it should just be taken for granted that he and TWG are inno.

Also that according to Danni, TWG is innocent. The Moon is one of the scummy sounding cards, so it doesn't fit in, him being town. We have 100% established now that in most cases, the tarot card links to the person's alignment. The Moon stands for illusion, fear and mystery. This just sounds overall negative but I guess there could be an exception?

 

[TheWeakGuy48_]

Okay guys I know what we can do, but my plan relies on that ender is 3rd Party, otherwise we are screwed.
Today we lynch Iggish
Tonight Danni will die
Tomorrow we lynch Myuser
Tomorrow night TWG/Dess will die
NOW on overmorrow, we got 1 third party(ender), 1 town and 1 mafia (that town player being TWG/dess). Now because of Unu's role, the hanged man, he already has a vote on himself. This means that overmorrow we can lynch Unu when there's 3 players remaining.

 

[Unusual_Dood]

You said that we shouldn't just delay the day, so surely lynching Ender and waiting for another day would be doing just that?

I think you are a bit confused. What I said was that we had no reason to lynch Ender today, since the situation we would then have tomorrow will be the same, and it would only be delaying our problems.