Republic - Completed

[Mooglie]

While we are mostly talking about claiming PR or non PR, just to confirm, this role will be pretty useless once Mafia are aware of who they are, right?

why

 

[Danni122112]

The Tracker, Observer, Doctor and toxicologist are roles which are powerful as important, and I’m just afraid of losing these due to mass claiming.

 

[Nottykitten]

The Tracker, Observer, Doctor and toxicologist are roles which are powerful as important, and I’m just afraid of losing these due to mass claiming.

The observer is useless because they can't see kills. The doctor/toxicologist can't really save anyone high priority targets when the bus driver is threatening to switch them onto the granny and thus killing them. Tracker is pretty decent I guess.

 

[Danni122112]

why

Assuming you have read the role, their network won’t be revealed unless they are killed.

 

[Faliara]

every argument you brought forward is not exclusive to massclaiming and is not necessarily a bad thing either

Now that hours have passed, and I look back at it with a more clear brain... Yeah, I see what you mean ^_^'

 

[Enderfive]

Monitor

Welcome to Republic. You are the Monitor.

• Each night, you may monitor one player by adding them to a surveillance network.
  
  • The targeted player is alerted to their monitoring.
• Upon death, the factional makeup of all players in your surveillance network is published.
  
  • The names of these players are not published.
    
    
    
    While we are mostly talking about claiming PR or non PR, just to confirm, this role will be pretty useless once Mafia are aware of who they are, right?

not at all

 

[Danni122112]

The observer is useless because they can't see kills

Huh, I didn’t see that, where does it say?

If that’s the case it’s indeed not too useful.

 

[Nottykitten]

Huh, I didn’t see that, where does it say?

If that’s the case it’s indeed not too useful.

'[BCOLOR=transparent]This night action will fail if the watched player dies.[/BCOLOR]' in the role description doc

 

[Danni122112]

The doctor/toxicologist can't really save anyone high priority targets when the bus driver is threatening to switch them onto the granny and thus killing them.

Won’t this also kill mafia, or rev, if they are aiming to kill the dictator?

 

[HKCaper]

town's democracy kill is the vengeful, which is restricted to the representatives

Can only happen:
-once per game
-if vengeful is subpoenaed
-if vengeful decides to do it

 

[Danni122112]

'[BCOLOR=transparent]This night action will fail if the watched player dies.[/BCOLOR]' in the role description doc

right, players who are killed, die.

Still can see those who are poisoned though, and how about bus driver targets?

 

[Danni122112]

Nottykitten is there a difference between a visit and target?

 

[HKCaper]

Won’t this also kill mafia, or rev, if they are aiming to kill the dictator?

lol, i doubt mafia would be dumb enuf to send someone to dictator and then use granny busdriver on dictator. Also if that kills the rev, that'd be amazing for them.

 

[Danni122112]

lol, i doubt mafia would be dumb enuf to send someone to dictator and then use granny busdriver on dictator. Also if that kills the rev, that'd be amazing for them.

So the observer could watch the Dictator, to see who the Granny role is then?

 

[Danni122112]

So the observer could watch the Dictator, to see who the Granny role is then?

Bus driver*

 

[HKCaper]

Im guessing yes.

 

[Prizyms]

Nottykitten is there a difference between a visit and target?

You should perhaps be asking me instead. All night actions are counted as targets with the exception of the Observer's watch ability, which has the following important property:

• This action is not counted as targeting.

This notably means that the Observer cannot be exposed by a Tracker report, and is not killed if Acedia is chosen. The Observer's chosen player is also thus unaffected by Ira swaps from their point of view, since Ira swaps potential targets only - if the Observer watches A, and Ira swaps A and B, the Observer will continue to watch A and Ira will show up as having targeted A.

 

[Sploorky]

I think no matter what we do it's going to be good to get that third "useless" PR to claim considering the other two already have claimed. Democracy or autocracy we want the initial council to be town-lead.

 

[Nottykitten]

Time for me to attempt a quadra post with my logic

People(mostly Aqua) keep saying that my post about how we have about 0 mislynches is flawed because 'it only accounts for one single scenario'. Keep in mind that scenario is our optimal scenario where we do lynch an anti-town every day. The argument 'but what if we get the revo early' really isn't a good argument because you're putting the entire game on the faith that the revo dies early in the game. But if you want me to work out those scenarios sure here we go.

Scenario:

• We lynch a Mafia every single day under democracy(meaning any and all reads/investigations are useless because we're already lynching a Mafia every single day).
• Granny kills aren't counted.
• Mafia poisoner kill is counted, because poisoned people aren't cured because the toxicologist can't cure them or he will die. (New info came to light and appearently someone who receives an antidote can survive 1 poisoning at any point later in the game, still any death saved by the doctor/pre-emptive toxicologist are not counted. I feel the chance a doctor/toxicologist saves someone rivals the granny kills and for better clear scenarios we can say these two cancel each other out, so when someone is saved someone else dies to the granny).
• Assassin doesn't poison anyone because they could hit town people and Mafia don't die to poison anyways because they can save their own (unless you want to argue that they do poison every single night in which case just subtract some town members every once in a while and when you think about removing a mafia member just subtract 1 poison kill instead since the mafia poisoner will save their own).

I find these a pretty fair premise to deduct how our games are going to go. If you disagree with these premises do tell me why. I've worked out some scenarios here where the revo death + mafia poisoner death are on different nights/days.

Had to cut stuff since the forums think tables are made out of 204940 characters. Scenarios worked out in the next 2 posts, and a conclusion in the one after that.

 

[Nottykitten]

My post is too long so I had to split it. This post contains the scenarios where the Mafia kills the revo.

Spoiler: Mafia kills revo scenarios

Spoiler: Best-Best case: Revo killed by Maf N1, poisoner is the 1st Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td}T{/td}
{td}M{/td}
{td}R{/td}
{td}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill (On revo){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}17{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch (On poisoner){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N2{/td}
{td=@x15}17{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D3{/td}
{td=@x15}15{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}15{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}14{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}14{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch {/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}12{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}12{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N7{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia CANT kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D8{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N8{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: TOWN WIN. After poisoner is the first lynched Maf the town has 4 mislynches and loses after 5th mislynch.

Spoiler: Best-Worst case: Revo killed by Maf N1, poisoner is the 7th Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td}T{/td}
{td}M{/td}
{td}R{/td}
{td}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill (On revo){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}17{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N2{/td}
{td=@x15}17{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D3{/td}
{td=@x15}15{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}15{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch {/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N7{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia CANT kill (AND Poisoner couldnt poison last night unless 6th Maf is Gula){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D8{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch (On poisoner){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N8{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: TOWN WIN. Before the 5th Mafia is lynched and the Maf can't poison anymore(D6 here), the town has 1 mislynch and loses after the 2nd mislynch. Don't believe me how we only have 1 mislynch? Here it is with two mislynches between D2 and the 5th Mafia death:

Spoiler: Best-Worst case: Revo killed by Maf N1, poisoner is the 7th Maf to die. 2 Mislynches

[xtable]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td}T{/td}
{td}M{/td}
{td}R{/td}
{td}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill (On revo){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}17{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N2{/td}
{td=@x15}17{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D3{/td}
{td=@x15}15{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Town lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}14{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}12{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Town lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch {/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N7{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D8{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}MAFIA WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: MAFIA WIN.

Spoiler: Middle-Best case: Revo killed by Maf N3, poisoner is the 1st Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable]
{tbody}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td=@x15}T{/td}
{td=@x15}M{/td}
{td=@x15}R{/td}
{td=@x15}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch (On poisoner){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}D3{/td}
{td}13{/td}
{td}6{/td}
{td}1{/td}
{td}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill on revo{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}12{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}12{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N7{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia CANT kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D8{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N8{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: TOWN WIN. After poisoner is the first lynched Maf the town has 3 mislynches and loses after 4th mislynch.

Spoiler: Middle-Middle case: Revo killed by Maf N3, poisoner is the 4th Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable]
{tbody}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td=@x15}T{/td}
{td=@x15}M{/td}
{td=@x15}R{/td}
{td=@x15}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill on revo + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch (On poisoner){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}N7{/td}
{td}6{/td}
{td}1{/td}
{td}0{/td}
{td}Mafia CANT kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D8{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N8{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: TOWN WIN. Before the poisoner is lynched the town has 1 mislynch and loses after the 2nd mislynch.

Spoiler: Middle-Worst case: Revo killed by Maf N3, poisoner is the 7th Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable]
{tbody}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td=@x15}T{/td}
{td=@x15}M{/td}
{td=@x15}R{/td}
{td=@x15}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}D3{/td}
{td}13{/td}
{td}6{/td}
{td}1{/td}
{td}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill on revo + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N7{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia CANT kill (AND Poisoner couldnt poison last night unless 6th Maf is Gula){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D8{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch (On poisoner){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N8{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: TOWN WIN. Before the poisoner is lynched the town has 0 mislynch and loses after the 1st mislynch.

Spoiler: Low Middle-Worst case: Revo killed by Maf N4, poisoner is the 7th Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable]
{tbody}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td=@x15}T{/td}
{td=@x15}M{/td}
{td=@x15}R{/td}
{td=@x15}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}N2{/td}
{td}16{/td}
{td}6{/td}
{td}1{/td}
{td}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill on revo + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N7{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia CANT kill (AND Poisoner couldnt poison last night unless 6th Maf is Gula){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D8{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch (On poisoner){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N8{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: TOWN WIN. Before the poisoner is lynched the town has 0 mislynches and loses after the 1st mislynch.

Spoiler: Worst-Best case: Revo killed by Maf N5, poisoner is the 1st Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable]
{tbody}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td=@x15}T{/td}
{td=@x15}M{/td}
{td=@x15}R{/td}
{td=@x15}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch (On poisoner){/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}N2{/td}
{td}16{/td}
{td}6{/td}
{td}1{/td}
{td}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}12{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}12{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill on revo{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N7{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia CANT kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D8{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch (On poisoner){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N8{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: TOWN WIN. Before the poisoner is lynched the town has 1 mislynch and loses after the 2nd mislynch.

Spoiler: Worst-Middle case: Revo killed by Maf N5, poisoner is the 4th Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable]
{tbody}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td=@x15}T{/td}
{td=@x15}M{/td}
{td=@x15}R{/td}
{td=@x15}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}N2{/td}
{td}16{/td}
{td}6{/td}
{td}1{/td}
{td}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch (On poisoner){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill on revo + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N7{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia CANT kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D8{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N8{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: TOWN WIN. Before the poisoner is lynched the town has 0 mislynches and loses after the 1st mislynch.

Spoiler: Worst-Worst case: Revo killed by Maf N5, poisoner is the 7th Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable]
{tbody}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td=@x15}T{/td}
{td=@x15}M{/td}
{td=@x15}R{/td}
{td=@x15}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}N2{/td}
{td}16{/td}
{td}6{/td}
{td}1{/td}
{td}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill on revo + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}0{/td}
{td=@x15}MAFIA WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: MAFIA WIN. Before the poisoner is lynched the town has 0 mislynches and loses after the 0th mislynch.

I went over all of these alot of times so they should be mistake free, not that anyone is going to really read them anyways.

 

[Nottykitten]

My post is too long so I had to split it. This post contains the scenarios where the town lynches the revo.

Spoiler: Town lynches rev scenarios

Spoiler: Best-Best case: Revo lynched 1st (D2), poisoner is the 1st Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable=skin1]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td}T{/td}
{td}M{/td}
{td}R{/td}
{td}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D3{/td}
{td=@x15}14{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch (On poisoner){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}14{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}12{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}12{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N7{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia CANT kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D8{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N8{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: TOWN WIN. After revo is lynched 1st and is the poisoner is the 1st lynched Maf the town has 3 mislynches and loses after 4th mislynch.

Spoiler: Best-Worst case: Revo lynched 1st, poisoner is the 7th Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable=skin1]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td}T{/td}
{td}M{/td}
{td}R{/td}
{td}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D3{/td}
{td=@x15}14{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}14{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}12{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}12{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N7{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D8{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N8{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia CANT kill (AND Poisoner couldnt poison last night unless 6th Maf is Gula){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D9{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N9{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: TOWN WIN. Before the 5th Mafia is lynched and the Maf can't poison anymore(D7 here), the town has 0 mislynches and loses after the 1st mislynch. Don't believe me how we only have 0 mislynches? Here it is with 1 mislynch between D2 and the 5th Mafia death:

Spoiler: Best-Worst case: Revo lynched 1st, poisoner is the 7th Maf to die. 1 Mislynch

[xtable=skin1]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td}T{/td}
{td}M{/td}
{td}R{/td}
{td}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D3{/td}
{td=@x15}14{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Town lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N7{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D8{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}MAFIA WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: MAFIA WIN.

Spoiler: Middle-Best case: Revo lynched 3rd, poisoner is the 1st Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable=skin1]
{tbody}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td=@x15}T{/td}
{td=@x15}M{/td}
{td=@x15}R{/td}
{td=@x15}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch (On poisoner){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}D3{/td}
{td}13{/td}
{td}6{/td}
{td}1{/td}
{td}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}11{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}9{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N7{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D8{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N8{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia CANT kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D9{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N9{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}MAFIA WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: TOWN WIN. After revo is lynched 3rd and poisoner is the 1st lynched Maf the town has 2 mislynches and loses after 3rd mislynch.

Spoiler: Middle-Middle case: Revo lynched 3rd, poisoner is the 4th Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable=skin1]
{tbody}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td=@x15}T{/td}
{td=@x15}M{/td}
{td=@x15}R{/td}
{td=@x15}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch (On poisoner){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}N7{/td}
{td}4{/td}
{td}2{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D8{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N8{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia CANT kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D9{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N9{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: TOWN WIN. When revo is lynched third, before the poisoner is lynched the town has 0 mislynches and loses after the 1st mislynch.

Spoiler: Middle-Worst case: Revo lynched 3rd, poisoner is the 7th Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable=skin1]
{tbody}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td=@x15}T{/td}
{td=@x15}M{/td}
{td=@x15}R{/td}
{td=@x15}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}D3{/td}
{td}13{/td}
{td}6{/td}
{td}1{/td}
{td}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N7{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D8{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}MAFIA WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: MAFIA WIN. Before the poisoner is lynched the town has 0 mislynches and loses after the 0th mislynch.

Spoiler: Low Middle-Worst case: Revo lynched 4th, poisoner is the 7th Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable=skin1]
{tbody}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td=@x15}T{/td}
{td=@x15}M{/td}
{td=@x15}R{/td}
{td=@x15}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}N3{/td}
{td}13{/td}
{td}5{/td}
{td}1{/td}
{td}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N5{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}MAFIA WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: MAFIA WIN. Before the poisoner is lynched the town has 0 mislynches and loses after the 0th mislynch.

Spoiler: Worst-Best case: Revo lynched 5th, poisoner is the 1st Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable=skin1]
{tbody}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td=@x15}T{/td}
{td=@x15}M{/td}
{td=@x15}R{/td}
{td=@x15}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N1{/td}
{td=@x15}18{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch (On poisoner){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N2{/td}
{td=@x15}16{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N3{/td}
{td=@x15}13{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D4{/td}
{td=@x15}12{/td}
{td=@x15}5{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N4{/td}
{td=@x15}12{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D5{/td}
{td=@x15}10{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}N5{/td}
{td}10{/td}
{td}3{/td}
{td}1{/td}
{td}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D6{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}Revo lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N6{/td}
{td=@x15}8{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D7{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N7{/td}
{td=@x15}7{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D8{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia lynch (On poisoner){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N8{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}Mafia CANT kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}D9{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}N9{/td}
{td=@x15}6{/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15} {/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: TOWN WIN. Before the poisoner is lynched the town has 1 mislynch and loses after the 2nd mislynch. Before the revo is lynched the town has 1 mislynch and loses after the 2nd mislynch.

Spoiler: Worst-Middle case: Revo lynched 5th, poisoner is the 4th Maf to die. 0 Mislynches

[xtable=skin1|366x@]
{tbody}
{tr=@x15}
{td=121x15}Status at the start of:{/td}
{td=14x15}T{/td}
{td=10x15}M{/td}
{td=8x15}R{/td}
{td=181x15}What happens{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=121x15}D1{/td}
{td=14x15}18{/td}
{td=10x15}7{/td}
{td=8x15}1{/td}
{td=181x15}No lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=121x15}N1{/td}
{td=14x15}18{/td}
{td=10x15}7{/td}
{td=8x15}1{/td}
{td=181x15}Revo + Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=121x15}D2{/td}
{td=14x15}16{/td}
{td=10x15}7{/td}
{td=8x15}1{/td}
{td=181x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td=121x@}N2{/td}
{td=14x@}16{/td}
{td=10x@}6{/td}
{td=8x@}1{/td}
{td=181x@}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=121x15}D3{/td}
{td=14x15}13{/td}
{td=10x15}6{/td}
{td=8x15}1{/td}
{td=181x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=121x15}N3{/td}
{td=14x15}13{/td}
{td=10x15}5{/td}
{td=8x15}1{/td}
{td=181x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=121x15}D4{/td}
{td=14x15}10{/td}
{td=10x15}5{/td}
{td=8x15}1{/td}
{td=181x15}Mafia lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=121x15}N4{/td}
{td=14x15}10{/td}
{td=10x15}4{/td}
{td=8x15}1{/td}
{td=181x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=121x15}D5{/td}
{td=14x15}7{/td}
{td=10x15}4{/td}
{td=8x15}1{/td}
{td=181x15}Mafia lynch (On poisoner){/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=121x15}N5{/td}
{td=14x15}7{/td}
{td=10x15}3{/td}
{td=8x15}1{/td}
{td=181x15}Revo + Mafia kill + Poison death{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=121x15}D6{/td}
{td=14x15}4{/td}
{td=10x15}3{/td}
{td=8x15}1{/td}
{td=181x15}Revo lynch{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=121x15}N6{/td}
{td=14x15}4{/td}
{td=10x15}3{/td}
{td=8x15} {/td}
{td=181x15}Mafia kill{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=121x15}D7{/td}
{td=14x15}3{/td}
{td=10x15}3{/td}
{td=8x15} {/td}
{td=181x15}MAFIA WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

RESULT: MAFIA WIN. Before the revo is lynched the town has 0 mislynches and loses after the 0th mislynch.

I went over all of these alot of times so they should be mistake free, not that anyone is going to really read them anyways.

 

[Nottykitten]

Results:

For those who can't be bothered to read everything, here is a table with results. Every scenario is executed with 0 mislynches:
[xtable]
{tbody}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Scenario{/td}
{td=@x15}Rev death{/td}
{td=@x15}Poisoner death{/td}
{td=@x15}Times we can mislynch{/td}
{td=@x15}Result{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Best-Best{/td}
{td=@x15}Killed by Maf N1{/td}
{td=@x15}1st Maf{/td}
{td=@x15}4{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Best-Best{/td}
{td=@x15}Lynched by town 1st lynch (D2){/td}
{td=@x15}1st Maf{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN {/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Best-Worst{/td}
{td=@x15}Killed by Maf N1{/td}
{td=@x15}7th Maf{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Best-Worst{/td}
{td=@x15}Lynched by town 1st lynch (D2){/td}
{td=@x15}7th Maf{/td}
{td=@x15}None{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Middle-Best{/td}
{td=@x15}Killed by Maf N3{/td}
{td=@x15}1st Maf{/td}
{td=@x15}3{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Middle-Best{/td}
{td=@x15}Lynched by town 3rd lynch (D4){/td}
{td=@x15}1st Maf{/td}
{td=@x15}2{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Middle-Middle{/td}
{td=@x15}Killed by Maf N3{/td}
{td=@x15}4th Maf{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Middle-Middle{/td}
{td=@x15}Lynched by town 3rd lynch (D4){/td}
{td=@x15}4th Maf{/td}
{td=@x15}None{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Middle-Worst{/td}
{td=@x15}Killed by Maf N3{/td}
{td=@x15}7th Maf{/td}
{td=@x15}None{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Middle-Worst{/td}
{td=@x15}Lynched by town 3rd lynch (D4){/td}
{td=@x15}7th Maf{/td}
{td=@x15}None{/td}
{td=@x15}MAFIA WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Low Middle-Worst{/td}
{td=@x15}Killed by Maf N4 {/td}
{td=@x15}7th Maf {/td}
{td=@x15}None {/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN {/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Low Middle-Worst{/td}
{td=@x15}Lynched by town 4th lynch (D5){/td}
{td=@x15}7th Maf {/td}
{td=@x15}None{/td}
{td=@x15}MAFIA WIN {/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Worst-Best{/td}
{td=@x15}Killed by Maf N5{/td}
{td=@x15}1st Maf{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN {/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Worst-Best{/td}
{td=@x15}Lynched by town 5th lynch (D6){/td}
{td=@x15}1st Maf{/td}
{td=@x15}1{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Worst-Middle{/td}
{td=@x15}Killed by Maf N5{/td}
{td=@x15}4th Maf{/td}
{td=@x15}None{/td}
{td=@x15}TOWN WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Worst-Middle{/td}
{td=@x15}Lynched by town 5th lynch (D6){/td}
{td=@x15}4th Maf{/td}
{td=@x15}None{/td}
{td=@x15}MAFIA WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{tr=@x15}
{td=@x15}Worst-Worst{/td}
{td=@x15}Killed by Maf n5{/td}
{td=@x15}7th Maf{/td}
{td=@x15}None{/td}
{td=@x15}MAFIA WIN{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

Conclusion:

• In the best scenarios we have plenty of mislynches. It's unlikely we'll get the revo soon though
• In the realistic scenarios (Middle) where we dont instantly get the revo/poisoner we have 0-1 mislynches to play with. Meaning if we don't get their killing roles fast enough we will have lost if we've made even a single mislynch.
• In the worst case scenarios(More specifically ones where we lynch the revo and they don't get killed by the Mafia) we simply out right lose no matter if we lynch an anti-town every single day.
• [Not concluded from result table] Even if the revo kills one Mafia (alright chance to happen) at most I can see this giving us 1 more mislynch, which we already don't have enough of.

We're really playing the odds if we don't come up with an actual plan that involves the town getting more than just a single lynch to get rid of Mafia. Scum reads and investigations don't matter because we're bound to mislynch atleast once and in many scenarios that already leads to us losing. One single lynch per day is not enough for us to win. Most of the time it'll lead to a losing scenario the second we mislynch. That's the point I'm trying to make.

The problem here is obviously the amount of kills the anti-towns get to make per night. Our solution should be to match their kills by switching to autocracy. This outright gives the town 2 extra nightkills atleast for the first night.

But because we don't want our two town nightkills to be in the blind, we should perform some form of massclaim so that our nightkills have a better shot of getting Mafia. The point here isn't to get investigations it's to match the anti-town nightkills and shoot at them as much and as fast as we can while we still can so that we have a hope dwindling down their numbers/killing roles as fast as we can. Couple some smart massclaiming along with some reads of who our town nightkills should kill and we've got a recipe for a decent chance of winning, better than praying we don't make a single mislynch the entire game.

Oog's plan is so far the best one that attempts to solve this problem and keep some important PR's(mostly the assassin, as long as they're alive we have another nightkill) alive.

 

[Nottykitten]

(Do note you don't actually have to read all scenarios just the result chart and if you disagree with it you can check how I got to that result)

 

[Scrable]

have u considered saying something constructive though

Yes I have
I decided against it

Nah, I really have nothing to say. Also I'm fairly busy currently. Last time for example the plan failed immediately due to certain people.
Although it's dictatorship part was a bit flawed... Or maybe I just didn't want to be the first death. Anyway different game now.

The prev game strat and massclaims are the two main plans if I read correctly. And I kinda lost it midway. So have a bunch of rereading to do.
(btw Danni deserves to be in a council with aqua)

 

[Hunter]

role text doesn't seem to imply that the antidote can be received preemptively but i dunno if poison can be immediately negated on the night it's given. Prizyms?

Poison is applied at 'dawn' (between the end of night and the start of day, the same time as when night actions are resolved) and the poisoned player receives a message notifying them of their poisoning. They will die during the next 'dawn' phase unless they are in possession of an antidote either previously given to them or given to them while poisoned.