Republic - Completed

Jivvi

Jivvi

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Infected_alien8_ said:
But your point was that they'd bus-drive them, not night kill them

I swear you're either not making any sense or I'm just too tired to think straight
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they could do both if they really wanted to, but what i'm getting at is i thought that if they had the information required to kill the dictator, they would, and we could use that as evidence of there being a mafia member in the council. however it kinda doesn't seem to be in the mafia's best interest to kill the dictator while the revolutionary is a threat so
 
Infected_alien8_

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Infected_alien8_ said:
i mean I don't really know where I was going with that bit anyway since I don't think that'd indicate anything about your allignment but mostly I was thinking I was missing your point and you confused me but I'm just being dumb soz
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but mostly I think I was thinking I was missing your point*
 
Hunter

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Infected_alien8_ said:
what

I thought the whole reason you're wanting to elect me is so that you can have a democracy and lynch me

So why are you electing ender (who you townread)
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so we can lynch you. far as i'm aware velz might pull what aqua did last game so i want someone town/collected on the council to have a solid majority for actions
 
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Hunter said:
so we can lynch you. far as i'm aware velz might pull what aqua did last game so i want someone town/collected on the council to have a solid majority for actions
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I mean if you're gonna force a democracy you can kill me all you like because you'll have lost us the game anyway
 
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Hunter said:
have you considered:
democracy is valid and you're blindly following notty yet again
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have you considered:

actually reading notty's points and trying to scrutinise them yourself to realize they're sound rather than choosing to ignore them for 0 reason and insisting that they must be incorrect because 'priz wouldn't do that' even though you can literally read it for yourself like i do not understand your point of view in the slightest and you are so frustrating

do you think I just read what notty says and just copy her words because I'm pretty sure with the amount of points I've brought up independently of her I've proven that I'm thinking for myself rather than regurgitating her sentences

literally disprove notty's number-post or stop going on about it being wrong and me just blindly following her "again" even though this has never happened
 
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Hunter said:
jfc man like really, you're honestly a parrot
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????????????????????????????????????

so because I'm agreeing with logical reasoning, I'm a parrot

Hunter said:
why are you so adamant that democracy is the devil

literally the only evidence you have are two fabricated edge cases put out by one player
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what are you even saying

what is your point

we've shown why democracy will lose us the game, yes

???
 
Hunter

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Infected_alien8_ said:
have you considered:

actually reading notty's points and trying to scrutinise them yourself to realize they're sound rather than choosing to ignore them for 0 reason and insisting that they must be incorrect because 'priz wouldn't do that' even though you can literally read it for yourself like i do not understand your point of view in the slightest and you are so frustrating

do you think I just read what notty says and just copy her words because I'm pretty sure with the amount of points I've brought up independently of her I've proven that I'm thinking for myself rather than regurgitating her sentences

literally disprove notty's number-post or stop going on about it being wrong and me just blindly following her "again" even though this has never happened
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Hunter said:
Wait a tic


Jesus Christ, your math is fucked.

The 62% chance only applies to the initial first lynch.

For each town-sided kill required to end the game via this method, if we're going by chance, the probability would be as follows:

8/13 * 7/12 * 6/11 * 5/10 * 4/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 * 1/6 = 1/1287
This is about a 0.07777% chance of getting an antitown correctly every kill.
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hunter i've addressed that post so many times

just because the likelihood is less than what she made, that doesn't mean the likelihood is not still worse than your idea

the whole point is that we don't have enough kills to catch up to the mafia

regardless of whether the probability for that was accurate, it's still higher than the alternative

notty literally calculated the probability for your idea and it was like 400x worse or something ridiculous but you're ignoring that
 
Hunter

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Nottykitten said:
How about we try a different strategy for this game instead. The gameplan is pretty easy and is mostly about killing off anti-town pretty quickly at the start while we still can:

1) We massclaim.
2) Mafia all claims citizen because CC'ing any other role is complete suicide when we know everyones role. Revo probs will aswell.
3) We'll have a pool of 13 proven(!) town PR's and a pool of 13 unproven citizen claims(of which only 5 are actuall town which makes for a 8/13 chance to hit a non-town). Even if they don't all claim citizen for some reason we can block/murder the CC's to death.
4) Town installs 5 of the claimed town PR's on the council.
5) Council of town PR's elects an unknown dictator so the Mafia won't know who it is untill morning.
6) Both the assassin and dictator use their nightkills to slaughter the citizen claims that night.
7) 4 people die that night, 2 from the citizen pool and 2 from the PR pool(revo + mafia kill. Revo will kill a council member trying to kill the dictator and mafia will kill the assassin. Surprisinly our doctor should live this night as long ass we dont elect our doctor into the council.).
8) During the day 1 person is poisoned and we can also lynch 1 citizen claim. Giving the town essentially more kills than the anti-towns because the anti-towns have 2 nightkills + poison and the town has 2 nightkills + a lynch.
9) At this point the dictator is known and also with 3 citizen claims dead it's extremely likely that we killed 2 anti-town at that point which is really nice because if one of those happens to be the Mafia bus driver or poisoner this game is won. During the evening theres 10 citizen claims left and 11 proven town PR's.
10) Mafia will nightkill the now known dictator using their bus driver + nightkill. Dictator still gets to nightkill another citizen claim.
11) 3 people die at night, 1 from the citizen pool and 2 from the PR pool(toxicologist saves the poisoned person, dictator + probs doctor are now dead). 9 citizen claims left and 9 town PR claims left. We can fairly assume that at this point 2-3 Mafia are dead and atleast one of their strong PR's(bus driver/poisoner). If we're really lucky we kill the revo instead which we ofcourse have a 4/13 chance to do with 4 kills.
12) We can't lynch since dictator is dead so we elect 4 proven town PR's again. We install another dictator and they murder another citizen claim(keep in mind the citizen claim will be roleblocked so that could easely stop a Mafia both the night before and this night).

Where we go from here really isn't that predictable unless we know which anti-town we have killed. If at any point we kill the revo we've practically won as anti-town nightkills go from 2 to 1. If at any point we kill the bus-driver or poisoner our advantage grows alot aswell. Most of this plan is just rng/luck on who we nightkill but I give it a good 8/13 (62%) chance for the town to win this.
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fun fact
notty's plan relied on us massclaiming, which we did not do
 
Infected_alien8_

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Hunter said:
fun fact
notty's plan relied on us massclaiming, which we did not do
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nottys plan involving massclaiming was because it makes us have higher chances of lynching correctly

it was brought to light that without massclaiming we still have a somewhat ok chance at lynching correctly enough times, although I'm skeptical about that since it means we can't mislynch or miskill more than about 4 times
 
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hunter can you actually use your thinking skills and think for yourself about whether notty's post is accurate or not

it's really not difficult just to fact-check it and make sure it's sound

if you can't disprove it then why are you hammering on about it being wrong

your only argument is "the host wouldn't do that"

the evidence is against you
 
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