The Red Scare [Game Over]

Enderfive

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Thread going downhill, would be nice to have a deadline coming up, but that's just my opinion.
trust me, this is not a thread going downhill

a thread going downhill would be what we used to have every game, where there was a post per day, this activity is perfectly fine, not everyone can be at their computers 24/7 checking mafia at every possible occasion

that being said it is my opinion that a deadline should be put in place every day at the daystart, so i basically agree with you anyway
 

Enderfive

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First, let me respond to the suspicions that have been cropping up against me.

1) He's made contradictions, changing his mind on fundamental things about the game when convenient for him to do so.
Except that's not true.

Let's look at those contradictions you've pointed out.

This implies that Ender thinks points about playstyle are unreliable/invalid.
Calling strawman on this. I haven't said that playstyle arguments aren't valid, or if I have then I was confused at the time and possibly thinking about something else at the same time. What I do believe, however, is that playstyle arguments aren't enough to lynch. As you pointed out yourself:
Remember when Ender said that he'd be happy to unvote me if I gave reasoning on someone else which wasn't just about playstyle?
"just" being the keyword here.

The way I look at playstyle arguments in a purely meta sense is that when someone is playing in the same way they usually play, then that is not a reason to think anything about them. If someone is behaving different from usual, then it's cause to be wary, but not to lynch. When it comes to this:
Anyone remember when Ender said he town-read caff because of their playstyle?
then since I've played quite a few games with Caff, then I have greater trust in my gut feelings about her than I would about someone who I haven't played a lot with, such as Foggy or Iggish. Thus the townread.

So this:
And it can't be that he just thinks playstyle arguments are too thin to lynch someone on
isn't true.


as we've seen before our eyes this game, he clearly does not have any limit when it comes to what is too thin to lynch someone. He's lynched an AFK and then voted someone (me) for popping into his head more than other names.
Again, not true. Jivvi was a policy lynch on my part, which means that completely different rules apply, and the vote on you was because I had to choose someone from that shitty list of mine, and it just so happened to be you, because while the others on that list were only on that list, you had a few other things going against you as well, like that nightkill analysis, which, honestly, was pure horseshit and I don't understand how I came up with that.

He must want me lynched pretty badly if he's willing to change his entire view on what is good enough reason to lynch someone, just for one post to justify his vote on me, before changing it back again.
Yes, well, I believe it's important to note here that my intention was not to lynch you, it was to place pressure on you. I would also, once again point out that I did not make an exception in my principles just to lynch you, as I've already explained.


As for the second point against me:
2) He's voted me twice now...both times were after I had just pushed on HK.
Well, sort of yes, sort of no. It's a coincidence, but just for the sake of it, let me show you why my votes had nothing to do with you pushing on HK.

Ender even told he that he wasn't suspicious of me anymore:

...until I said this:

And then the next morning he voted me.
Well, I was townreading you at that point, or at least not reading you as scum. I voted you on page 19 because according to my analysis of suspicions, which I only got done right before I voted, you were the one who had the highest possibility of being scum, even if I didn't read you as such, which is why I voted to put pressure on you and see how you reacted so I could get a better read. I would also point your attention to the fact that you were putting suspicion on HK since the day start, at which point I was still townreading you. The fact that you said that you were suspicious of HK and then I voted kind of loses its impact after that.

Now I've already said many many times how I am convinced that HKCaper is a piece of mafia scum, hence his absolutely drastic personality switch from last game to this game. To put it simply, last game he was cute, this game he isn't. (No offence <3) So I find it interesting how, after I've pushed for a HK lynch, Ender decided he had a good reason to vote me. Except both times, they weren't good reasons at all.
See, now this implies that you actually did push for a HK lynch right before both times I voted you. The vote on this day I already explained, the vote on Day 0 came after you had mentioned HK as a vibe in passing three times over something like 50 posts. And then you started pushing him, meaning that my vote on you on Day 0 had nothing to do with you pushing for HK, unless I can actually see the future, since as a mafia member, and especially as a member of a mafia this large, I would not go defending my buddies against something this minor. Not to mention that Unu had actually placed a vote on him by the time of my first vote, so even if I did want to defend him, which would've been fucking stupid of me, then there was a player that was more dangerous to him.

All in all, it's a coincidence that my last vote came after you pushed for lynching HK and it's not even true that my first vote on you came after you pushed for lynching HK.


There were some other tidbits as well in that point of yours:
The first time was because I agreed with people or something, and he made some points that I essentially broke down and then he came back with "yes they're bad but I've got nothing else"
If you think you broke those points down, then you really have a high opinion of yourself. You said, and I quote:
your reasons for voting me don't make sense to me
and that was pretty much all you actually said. I would like to take this moment to remind you that simply because you didn't understand those points doesn't mean they weren't valid. I maintained those reasons even after you "broke them down", and while I did indeed admit that they weren't irrefutable proof of you being scum, I still believed and still do believe that they were valid points.

and then when that lynch didn't gain any traction he proposed we lynch the AFK who wasn't able to defend themselves instead (yes how townie of him).
I don't feel like I have to respond to that more than to say I've already responded to this.

Then the second time he voted me was after he'd come up with an idea for who the mafia were based on voting patterns, then chose me out of the list of people because my name stood out the most, despite there being someone on that list of mafia members of his who voted jivvi, and previously in the day he said we should look for mafia in those that bandwagon'd jivvi.
And I still maintain that there probably were a few mafia in that lynch. But I also think that there were some mafia who didn't vote to lynch Jivvi, and I'd wager that it was the smarter mafiosi who did that, because then they could point to people who did and say that it wasn't a very townie thing to do. Given the fact that I had no opinions at all on people who did vote for Jivvi, and the fact that I had other reasons to vote for you as well, regardless of how shit or not shit they were, that's why I chose to vote you, not any of the people that did vote for Jivvi. I said right on Day 0 that I would not vote randomly and if I had voted someone in the Jivvi lynch votelist, that's exactly what I would have had to do.

...Ummm what about the other person on the list who also voted jivvi? What about igg/TWG, who you had said you were looking forward to reading the posts of?
Looking forward to, so I could form an opinion. No one is guilty simply by association to the Jivvi lynch. If I believed that, I'd have to start by leading a lynch on myself, considering how I was the one to come up with the idea in the first place.

Not saying any of these people deserve to be lynched, but Ender was apparently choosing to completely ignore all those other points and go with me instead. It makes no sense.
It makes perfect sense, as I just explained. There weren't any points for me to ignore. Thus my vote on you.

To me, it's becoming more and more clear that he's trying to get me lynched
What I'm really trying to do is get people to talk and react so I can actually form some opinions on them. Until now, this has meant using you as a target.

I assume this is because 1) I'm an active member of town so doc is possibly going to be on me at night if they town-read me so to kill me off would require a lynch, 2) because it's a well-known fact that I'm not a very difficult person to find suspicious because I come across badly a lot, 3) because I am the only person pushing on HK, who is probably his mafia buddy who he is trying to defend.
Don't really have an answer on the first two since they're pure speculation with no explanation, I did, however, asnwer to the third already.

He's probably going to say I'm saying this now because he's voting me
And you probably are, since all four of your suspicions are on people who have pushed you. I mean, you say it out loud right in the next sentence:
but I'm saying this now because now it's becoming more and more clear to me that he's acting like scum, because of his recent actions.
All my recent actions have been to push you, so that kind of speaks for itself. And I get that you might genuinely find me scummy, and it's possible I would too, if I were in your position, but that doesn't change the fact that this opinion is most likely skewed against me by the fact that you're getting emotional about being voted.


As for Unu, and the reasons both he and Inf alluded to when voting me, I can't actually see any. All he had to say was:
There are a few things I also find suspicious about you ender. You first wanted a lynch first day, and pushed for it. You also asked for cult leaders to say who they were, with Infected (I think would be a bad thing if we lost our cult leaders and if mafias knew who they were, they could easily be targeted at nights). Now you also are "noticing things are going on between Notty, Inf, Oog and possibly Weak", as you said, which are three of the players who did not vote for lynching a townie. These are three moves that would be benefitual for the mafias.
a) Already explained the D0 lynch.
b) Cult leaders are of no importance to either the town or the mafia, if we assume that their convertees retain their original win conditions. Thus, I don't give a single fuck about whether or not they live, and I don't think the mafia do either. The reason I asked them to out themselves was because I was hoping that a mafioso would want to seize the opportunity to claim a role that was at the time being advertised as basically confirmed inno, especially considering how the real cult leaders would probably not out themselves due to the risk of being lynched and losing the game before even the first night. If there was more than two claims, we'd know that at least one of them is lying and we'd have narrowed 16 suspects down to three (or four, or however many claims there were), with a theoretical chance of at least 33% to lynch a mafia with no risk of lynching a townie (assuming no townie would claim a cult leader position themself).
c) The third point isn't even an argument, you just make a claim and leave it hanging and then say that it's beneficial for the mafia. Excuse me for remaining skeptical, but how? Until you explain your thought processes behind this, I don't have an argument to respond to.

Now, I pointed these things out in response, with the exception of the D0 lynch, because as I said, I had already responded to that and you had done nothing to counter my already given answer. And this is what I got back:
The biggest reason why I think we should keep the cult leader, is that they can give us information
First, what information is that, second, how can they give it to us if they're hidden?

While they are a third party and want most people in their cult, they need the rest of the players in order to do so. Since they only can convert one person each night they would have to try to survive the longest to convert most players.
I'm pretty sure that if a cult leader dies, someone else within the cult can take recruiting over.

I believe it would be safer for a cult leader to convert someone they don’t think is a mafia, since the mafias could target them.
Now you're making no sense at all. If they think that the mafia could target them, why on earth would they want to choose to convert people that the mafia will also be targeting? Furthermore, if they were really feeling so targeted, why would they not try to recruit one of the mafia and thus attempt to gain an insider, so that they wouldn't be as likely to be targeted? But before all that, why would the mafia want to target them specifically anyway? What would the mafia have to gain by eliminating the cults? If I was a mafioso, I'd consider the cults to be a benefit, since if they were given enough attention, they could divert attention away from the mafia, not to mention that townies would be more inclined to share their secrets in a cult chat as opposed to the public thread, which would give a mafioso an excellent chance to inflitrate one of the cults and snoop around, pretending to be a townie.

- When a player first is converted to a cult, that player know for sure that he is a cult leader and not a mafia.
Yes, and that is in no way dependent on the leaders remaining hidden. In fact, this would mean that it would be beneficial for every townie that has so far joined a cult, to out their leaders and I'm surprised no one has thought of doing this before.

- If a cult leader wants to convert someone but it did not happen while the player was not killed, then the cult leader knows for sure that one of the two following things happened: he tried to convert the other cult leader or the player was chosen by both cult leaders.
And that is beneficial... how exactly?

- The cult leaders also have a slightly better chance of knowing if the player they had converted was a mafia, since they cannot convert the other cult leader.
Again, not dependent on them remaining hidden, and we can't use that information if they are.

- People in a cult can eliminate the other members of the cult off the list of the other possible cult leader (if there are many in the cult, this may help).
I'm not particularly sure what you even mean by that.

I know that these are small advantages but believe that the talks inside each cult are the most important, while I cannot give any specific examples. It might be easier to spot patterns and such I believe and share them with smaller groups of people. At least this early in the game, I do not believe that cults will try to help mafias (if not forced), as they might be lynched by townies.
When keeping the townies we actually get some more specific information to work with, which also could make it much easier to figure out who’s mafias. I believe the reasons for keeping the cult leaders hidden are bigger than revealing them, and I find you attempting to get people to do so, suspicious.
Look, I get that you for some reason think cults are really really important in this game, even if all the info we have from the host suggests otherwise, but I still can't understand why you think the cult leaders need to remain hidden for us to get the benefits you want.

Like, I have said before I do no longer believe the odds for lynching a mafia was 5/16. Even if we got a hit on a mafia I believe that it is very unlikely we would reach 9 votes (“because people away, people who did not want to lynch, people who defended or did not find the guy suspicious enough, and most mafias would not vote for him”). I find it more likely that we would only be hitting a town- or cult player, and therefore believe the stats for the lynch would be somewhere near this instead: cult leader 2/11, normal villager 6/11 and PR villager 3/11 (cop, vigilante and doctor). I therefore think you pushing for a lynch first day was beneficial for the mafias.
I've been over this.

Also, I would assume that it is likely that either 3 or 4 mafias was helping the lynch. So, it feels like you are stepping in the wrong direction when you now go against players who did not contribute in the lynch (the only one who did was weak). This makes me suspicious
I've been over this, too.


Now, the thing that I find interesting is that the two arguments that could be considered such (D0 lynch and the whole cult business), are both arguments that could be used against himself.
I agree that we should take the risk to lynch and maybe take down an entire faction. However, I dont have anything else to go for other than that my intuition tells me that HK and Caff are mafias or some sort of special roles, while I cannot prove anything. However, I also checked with a random name picker and first got Caff then HK. How odd!

Vote HKCaper
Do you want a lynch or a no lynch and why? I would prefer a lynch over a no-lynch, just to get a chance to get rid of a mafia.

If you want a lynch, would you lynch someone at random if no one particularly scummy emerged? Yes
So, I do want to get a lynch today, and it currently looks like I have to choose between Infected and Foggy. While I do not really suspect any of them, I believe that Infect is a bigger benefit to the town with talking and getting opinions.

Unvote

Vote Foggy
Worth to note here is how he's perfectly fine with a lynch, even a random lynch, and I never went that far. Also note how he wants to get rid of the cults. So, while I know that you changed your mind after and I know you've explained why you did that, what I want to hear is why you think those arguments are valid after you yourself are guilty of doing both of those things you find me suspicious for, going even further than I did with both of them at first.

I also find it interesting that Unu has expressed his suspicion in Iggish, after he voted Inf, and in me, after I voted Inf. Meanwhile, the whole cultist reveal argument that he has going on against me, hasn't once cropped up against Inf, even though he was the one to suggest the idea in the first place. Draw your own conclusions from that.
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Enderfive

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But enough about that. I actually wanted to discuss something different entirely.

Murder is a no-no
You'd say that, wouldn't you?

During this entire game, you have not had a single original opinion, nor have you contributed much to the discussion. That would actually be par for the course for you, wouldn't it? Lurking and generally just not doing much? Well, it seems to me you're not really doing that any more, either.

Let's take a look at all three of the substantial posts you've made.
I'll just dump my opinions on all the suspects that were having in the game so far, based on the suspicion arrow image thing that you made and foggy improved on and hopefully by doing that I'll clear up my own confusion, I guess.

Firstly, I can't tell for sure if HK is scum or town. So far he's acted like how he was acting last game i.e. townie, so I can't tell for sure. Foggy's table seems to indicate quite a bit of suspicion on HK, and from my previous games with him the way he says things tend to get a lot of attention on him, so it's kinda unexpected. It could go either way.

Next, foggy... I have no idea. Foggy is being foggy. Again, acting like how he's been acting in the mafia games I've played with him (which was really just one game). Same as above.

As for unu and weakguy, I am thoroughly convinced that any suspicions raised by them against each other is just pure sibling banter.

Unu did state how iggy's voting patterns are very weird. I'll have to look through it all over again just to be sure, but it does seem like iggy's trying awfully hard to fit in.

Aqua hasn't called me out for being inactive, which is really weird. I don't know what I can deduce outta that.

On inffy, he seemed awfully desperate to justify his suspicions on hip on the dawn of the second day, and to be honest, I wouldn't have really thought of inffy as being the killer until he mentioned the possibility of someone framing him. I'm confused about inffy simply because he speaks so much and on one hand, I do believe that he's probably not mafia since if he were we wouldn'tve seen hip die, yet on the other hand he just seems like he's trying too hard, which makes it really hard for me to take him seriously. He's not usually like this unless hes being threatened with a lynch, where he desperately tries to prove that he is on the town side. It seems like at this point that is the case as well - him being pushed to prove that he's town. It's just that there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of things pushing him to do so except for the hip death and the suspicions, which kinda stem from him flooding the thread with so many posts. I can't say I'm suspicious. Doubtful, maybe. Mostly confused as to what I should believe in and what I shouldn't.

He hasn't claimed anything yet though so I guess the fun part has yet to come.

As for anyone else whom I didn't mention, I don't know much about them to say anything definitive. I'm still trying to comprehend how y'all managed to lynch the cop while I was asleep. We could've totally had the cop claim from the start and have the doctor protect him every night, but I guess I realised that late and it's hard to say if that strategy would work.
I do have to say you have a way of saying nothing while using a whole lot of words for it. All the people you mentioned, you didn't actually give any opinion on. You just said: "Yep, they're in the game, not sure what I think about them." There was one exception, though. Iggish, you said, tried awfully hard to fit in. While still not saying much, it at least implies that there is some degree of suspicion against Iggish there and this was right at the time when Iggish was getting heat from Inf and Unu.

There was also some speculation against Inf, but again, as he already pointed out in response, this wasn't really a new point either, as several people, including myself, had already noted that Inf seemed to be trying too hard to look like a townie.

And then I put the heat on Inf and you followed up with this:
I have a few reasons I'm suspicious of Inffy (pretty much the only person I'm having a hard time taking seriously right now), so I'll just put them out here and hopefully get a few responses on this. This quote was from a while ago, Infected_alien8_ , but can you explain this?

You talked about how if you were mafia, you wouldn't care to waste the N1 kill on hip even if you thought hip was the cultist. You kinda made it seem like it's common sense, but I'm not sure if I can follow up on that. Plus, the only response that you gave was this:

which was in response to iggy's post, which honestly isn't very helpful and all. And this:

which really just reinforces the view that you were mafia and you killed hip because you thought he acted differently, and might've seemed like some sort of threat to your mafia eyes. I mean, it could be just you justifying your incorrect judgment, but the text in parentheses seems to suggest otherwise from the way you phrase it, so I'm conflicted.

I did also realise how inffy had a sudden change of mood when the thread went from the initial inffy suspicion wave to inffy flooding the thread with his constantly updated suspicion illustrations, but I suppose it could go either way and I can't tell for sure if that was just mafia trying to distract town or townie trying to help.
Is it just me, or does Mulb like saying things that other people are saying at the time?

And then the third, which came shortly after the second:
A few random things that I noticed or thought about that I'll put here before I go to sleep (don't lynch the doc tyvm)

1. At this point of the game, picking any 3 players give an 80% chance that at least one in those three is mafia. I haven't calculated the percentages for 4 and 5 yet, but I'm estimating 5 to be at least 90%.

That means I could say with relative certainty that of all the people who have a vote on them, at least one is a member of the mafia. It's more or less intuitive, but I guess it helps to quantify it.


2. I was exploring the possibility of inffy being mafia and killing hip and the theory that inffy was suspicious of hip having an important role and therefore killing him in hopes of eliminating a mafia threat seemed pretty believable.

I did realise, though, that this comes with the assumption that everyone else in the mafia would just go along with it, and I have doubts that given the size of mafia they would've let a hip kill go through just because inffy thinks he's a threat, since it would ultimately bring inffy under the spotlight and make it rather difficult to defend.

But, this makes the next point very hard to justify:


3. The chances of any two parties picking the same person is practically zero, but it varies based on who we're talking about.

During night 1, there were four parties that comprised of 1 member and could visit 1 other member during the night - the two cult leaders, the vig, and the doc. There was also a party of 5 - the mafia. They had to pick one person outta 10 options. Doing the math, the following can be said:

There is a 94.2% chance that there are 4 cult members now (the two cults didn't pick the same person)

There is a 99.3% chance that the doctor did not save the mafia kill (and hence a 99.3% chance that vig did not kill anyone last night)

There is a 55.6% chance that someone is both in a cult and in mafia.

The game is not random, but given how early it is in the game, I have quite a bit of trust in these numbers. It is hence relatively safe to say that there are 4 cult members now, but more importantly - vig didn't do anything on night 1.

I'm inclined to believe that this was due to inactivity rather than a deliberate choice, given how jivvi flipping town would've helped narrow down the choices and the chances of striking mafia were relatively high.


Holding on to my vote for now, still waiting for inffy to clarify my doubts.
A whole lot of numbers and no real substance. You draw the conclusion that the vig didn't kill due to inactivity, which, I might add as a side note, is untrue in all likelihood, given how short the night was, but it doesn't really show anything. It doesn't show how Inf is mafia, it doesn't draw any conclusions that might help us lead a lynch on a scum. What it does do, however, is show you contributing to the discussion, because look, there was math in my post and everything!

Now, I'm not saying you're mafia. All I'm saying is that you're showing some pretty common signs of a mafioso: going with majority opinion, trying to make yourself look useful while really not contributing anything, hesitating to give strong opinions about people, preferring to point out that they might be suspicious for one reason or another, but you're just not sure at all.


In conclusion, I'm still confused as fuck about Inffy because on one hand I feel like he might really be scum and on the other I feel like he could really be innocent, but I am starting to develop FoSes on both Unu and Mulb.

tl;dr: fuck you, I had to write this shit so you'll have to read it.
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