Republic - Completed

[Nottykitten]

If notty is rev (she isn't so sadly this won't work but we will have killed maf which is good), from this point on we can gamble on autocracy, the risks of not knowing the identity of the night kill remain, however mafia are unable to prevent us from doing this as. If they kill the 3rd dictator everyone loses as notty will be dead.

Decent point but why go autocracy after I'm lynched and risk miskilling when you can do it now and have me as backup extra kill.

Poisoned person is notified of being poisoned and can request the aid of the toxicologist who will, at this point, have claimed. We set up the tracker on the toxicologist, meaning if the bus and granny are still alive and swap the toxicologist we reveal the granny and can get a 1for1 trade.

Bus driver + granny are a thing and any kill caused by the granny is a victory that brings them closer to a MYLO/win even if it exposes someone.

after 2 days and peoples reports/night actions occur this scenario can't be confirmed nor denied. Hopefully we will have a better idea of who could/is confirmed mafia from subpoenas or observer etc. night actions, plus some mafia night actions may have been blocked by inffy.

Night actions aren't blocked by democracy. We can confirm this is what will happen because numbers going down is what tends to happen when people die.

Option A) like I have proven is a very possible situation if we keep our whits about us and play well like I have shown above.

Yes it's a very possible situation so why risk being in a MYLO where granny kills will cause you to lose?

Option B) As I have stated is FAR more likely for town to lose than option A) due to these very sexy reasons:

• There is a 43.75% chance of the dictator dying tonight by mafia alone, this value increases if the dictator is targeted by the rev.
• If the dictator dies we will lose. Due to the size of the council we will be forced to go autocracy again as otherwise whoever we wanted to lynch would force a dictatorship with full view of who the dictator was, if the rev is still alive at this point they have a 1/3 chance of killing the dictator which is uncomfortably high, increased more so if mafia target the 3 candidates.
• As mentioned a million times before, even if we do survive the night and get a dictator kill and a lynch, we may have shot ourselves in the foot as the dictator kill isn't revealed.
• Notty isn't the fucking rev jesus christ - this would cause mafia for the second night in a row to know who the dictator was, would mean if we don't lynch notty we'd be shooting in the dark for our next kill, could easily hit a townie as no evidence other than vibes currently exists.

And you're not wrong here about the chance the dictator dies I think, but you don't actually have to go autocracy as long as you decide to put someone else into the council instead of me. Once I'm in it has to be autocracy or MYLO. And if I were Mafia why would I try to get a second dictator dead which causes the 'real' Revo is a step closer to winning? I'll tell you why it's because I'm the real Revo.

If you see a flaw in any of this let me know I didn't put huge amounts of thought into it but it should hold tighter than that shambles of a list notty posted once again assuming an ideal situation for her without question.

That's hurtful since my list was of facts and solid reasoning and I'm responding to your posts aswell. I'm not even assuming an ideal situation I'm assuming that when someone dies the number of players go down.

 

[Mooglie]

oh right

0 way i believe you werent just trying to get aqua killed <3

 

[Aqua]

you are wrong

Why not join us in the council then instead of fali who we don't /really/ need.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Why not join us in the council then instead of fali who we don't /really/ need.

actually yeah

unelect
elect: ooglie101, ender, aqua, rune

 

[Aqua]

Decent point but why go autocracy after I'm lynched and risk miskilling when you can do it now and have me as backup extra kill.

Because then mafia can kill 1 dictator which stops us from doing it again as you would win and gives mafia a massive advantage.

 

[Aqua]

unelect
elect: ooglie101, ender, aqua, nottycunten

 

[Mooglie]

Why not join us in the council then instead of fali who we don't /really/ need.

damn now im gonna be blocked!
but sure

unelect
elect Ooglie101, Enderfive, Aqua, Runemen4

 

[Infected_alien8_]

3 hours to change your votes

im busy studying so havent read the notty/aqua stuff soz

 

[Rune]

So wait, what's going on?

 

[Nottykitten]

Lets say that hypothetically Inf is lying about their actions, what then?

First of all, while you're in a state of thinking hypothetically please apply that to my scenario and think of the consequences of when I flip Revo which as I've pointed out result in a MYLO for the town.

Second, if Inf is lying about their actions then Rune probably isn't the granny and the town is on a MYLO after he's lynched. You're right that would be really bad but we don't have the time nor resources to question an unCC'd town member. We should base our plays on what we know and what we know is that he is unCC'd, even if there is like a 4% chance that he actually claimed Ltin's role town can't afford to go for a MYLO because they don't trust Inf. Lynching me is a guaranteed MYLO, lynching Rune is not guaranteed to result in a MYLO.

 

[Nottykitten]

So wait, what's going on?

We're electing who is the UBER coolest, please elect yourself thanks

 

[Aqua]

Bus driver + granny are a thing and any kill caused by the granny is a victory that brings them closer to a MYLO/win even if it exposes someone.

I just showed how this scenario would reveal the granny thus giving a confirmed mafia kill and preventing anymore granny kills.

Night actions aren't blocked by democracy. We can confirm this is what will happen because numbers going down is what tends to happen when people die.

This makes no sense and is no way a counter to my argument so... ok?

And you're not wrong here about the chance the dictator dies I think, but you don't actually have to go autocracy as long as you decide to put someone else into the council instead of me. Once I'm in it has to be autocracy or MYLO. And if I were Mafia why would I try to get a second dictator dead which causes the 'real' Revo is a step closer to winning? I'll tell you why it's because I'm the real Revo.

Putting someone else in the council means we may mislynch or dissolve the council. Both would pretty much result in town losing due to you.

That's hurtful since my list was of facts and solid reasoning and I'm responding to your posts aswell. I'm not even assuming an ideal situation I'm assuming that when someone dies the number of players go down.

Well I'm sorry for hurting your feelings but your post was to an unrealistic degree of certainty to manipulate people into thinking they genuinely have no choice other than to keep you alive, when they really do.

 

[Rune]

First of all, while you're in a state of thinking hypothetically please apply that to my scenario and think of the consequences of when I flip Revo which as I've pointed out result in a MYLO for the town.

Second, if Inf is lying about their actions then Rune probably isn't the granny and the town is on a MYLO after he's lynched. You're right that would be really bad but we don't have the time nor resources to question an unCC'd town member. We should base our plays on what we know and what we know is that he is unCC'd, even if there is like a 4% chance that he actually claimed Ltin's role town can't afford to go for a MYLO because they don't trust Inf. Lynching me is a guaranteed MYLO, lynching Rune is not guaranteed to result in a MYLO.

But the flaw in your plan is that I'm a townie, so lynching me is going to cause a Mylo?

 

[Rune]

And the fact is, you fall less of a risk of getting into a mylo by subbing me and seeing if I am granny or not than risking a potential accidental lynch against town?

 

[Mooglie]

time to tag the people i think have the sense to vote correctly
77thShad
Comp (i mean hes gone apparently)
Dess
Enderfive
Faliara
Fog
HKCaper
myusername22
One one two
Roobarb Pie
Sploorky
TheWeakGuy48_
Unusual_Dood

 

[Aqua]

Yes it's a very possible situation so why risk being in a MYLO where granny kills will cause you to lose?

Because A) you're not rev and B) if you were, keeping you alive would result in you constantly keeping us one step away from MYLO, because otherwise we'd kill you first opportunity.

With the current level of play from town I'm sure we both know if rev has any level of smarts they can easily manipulate this game in to winning.

 

[Unusual_Dood]

The calculations Notty did didn’t in any way show that going autocracy with massclaim was better than the other options. I can explain this if people want to.

It proves aqua's point wrong that hunter's discovery of notty's flaw meant notty's argument was detrimental to town

that's the whole reason we were discussing it

I don’t care what you were discussing, but explained what I was going to explain

 

[Danni122112]

this was phrased badly but

if notty is mafia, lynching them tomorrow is not that big of a woop

if notty is rev, lynching them tomorrow guarantees our loss (since notty will sabotage us tonight)

there is literally NO REASON TO LYNCH

If we had a 100% Mafia target we could lynch instead, we could wait a day with lynching notty.

This is on the condition we got a way to check her, for an example subpoenaing her.

If we are not subpoenaing her, we need another way to check her.

It’s not an issue that rev appears as town in court documents, as she will appear as mafia unless she is godfather. (Which might be quite likely, and a great move on her part).

Then we need a replacement for notty, that we can lynch, I got a few I wouldn’t mind, but please do make some decent suggestions I will truest consider it.

I still would prefer to have notty on the council.

Does this all seem reasonable to you, and do you have any issues with this?

 

[Aqua]

But the flaw in your plan is that I'm a townie, so lynching me is going to cause a Mylo?

I mean this is what I've said, subbing you would be far better as it would prove you were mafia giving us a degree of certainty if you're town we've lost anyway so this entire fucking thing is dumb.

 

[LISTINGS09]

We don't have the time nor resources to question an unCC'd town member.

Inf is grey at absolute best, compared to the likes of Aqua or Danni. You would be wise to sincerely question their motives.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I don’t care what you were discussing, but explained what I was going to explain

You said you aiming your point at me but your point was irrelevant, like I told you before you even made the explanation, because that's not what I was saying

 

[Danni122112]

also to all the people wondering why the rev cant just sit back and stay quiet and do nothing
from the hosts mouth

You don’t understand what he is saying. He is saying that the rev can joint win with mafia, and sit back and just lazily kill people, he is stating this multiple times. He does not argue against the rev NOT claiming, and hitting in smart kills on both sides.

Feel free to tag Prizyms if you still think what you first typed is what he is arguing for.

 

[Nottykitten]

I just showed how this scenario would reveal the granny thus giving a confirmed mafia kill and preventing anymore granny kills.

And I already mentioned 50 times Mafia don't care because every extra kill they get gives them a better advantage.

This makes no sense and is no way a counter to my argument so... ok?

It does make sense your argument of how my argument of how we're going to end up in a MYLO doesn't make sense.

Putting someone else in the council means we may mislynch or dissolve the council. Both would pretty much result in town losing due to you.

My lynch leads to a guaranteed MYLO, the lynch of someone else only leads to it if they're Mafia. Pick your poison I'd go with your better chance.

Well I'm sorry for hurting your feelings but your post was to an unrealistic degree of certainty to manipulate people into thinking they genuinely have no choice other than to keep you alive, when they really do.

They genuinly don't have a choice because lynching me guarantees a MYLO. They can still win from a MYLO after that but extremely unlikely.

If we had a 100% Mafia target we could lynch instead, we could wait a day with lynching notty.

Do you not think that both Inf and Aqua's actions and results paint Rune in a pretty bad light?


I mean I've said it 50 times in this post and I'm sorry for repeating myself but this is essentially what it boils down for me and the entire reason I'm giving you that you shouldn't lynch me:

Lynching me guarantees a MYLO. Lynching someone else only gives a MYLO if they're not Mafia. If I were town my clear course of action would be to take the chance of not getting into a MYLO

 

[Mooglie]

Inf is grey at absolute best, compared to the likes of Aqua or Danni. You would be wise to sincerely question their motives.

WHAT
INF IS UNCC
DANNI IS CITIZEN AKA AN UNCC-ABLE ROLE
HOW IS DANNI MORE TRUSTWORTHY THAN INF

 

[Mooglie]

Then we need a replacement for notty, that we can lynch, I got a few I wouldn’t mind, but please do make some decent suggestions I will truest consider it.

scrable fog rune
rune is the current one

He is saying that the rev can joint win with mafia, and sit back and just lazily kill people, he is stating this multiple times.

what the rev cant join win with the mafia