Trouble in the West: Pirates vs Cowboys [Finished]

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Enderfive

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Welp, here goes nothing. I've survived long enough and I feel like I could be killed any time now, so I think it's time to stop gambling and come forward with my role and what I know.

I am Newspaper Nick - a Journalist. I can investigate one person per night and I receive any system messages they do.

I've been quite careful not to say anything that would make the mafia come after me, and it has luckily paid off until now. This has given me 5 nights to investigate and gather information, which I believe is a rather good result on my part. Unfortunately, up until Night 4 there was a censorship bureau in the game, which prevented me from getting the full messages, but I got some pretty good stuff nonetheless.

But let's get down to the juicy stuff, shall we? Here are my investigations so far:

On Night 1 I investigated Nottykitten. Unfortunately he was killed the same night. However, I learned that he gave something (it was censored) to Swate. Due to her role name, I'd imagine the item(s) she gave to Swate were donuts, and that Swate was roleblocked that night.

Night 2 I investigated digitalmez. That's why I believed her to be innocent and still do, the message I received was consistent with her story. She did indeed use her ability on Duffie that same night.

Now things get interesting. On Night 3 I investigated HypeBurst. However, I receieved no results.

Night 4 I investigated Ooglie101. It was the obvious choice for me because he was going to learn the alignment of the last person in his inn and considering how he had just outed himself to the mafia, it was pretty clear that he was gonna get whacked. So, obviously, not wanting to let the investigation go to waste or in case he didn't get killed, confirm him as a cop for me, I investigated him. His investigation result: GmK is innocent.

And finally, on Night 5 I investigated Samlen, because of him being the last in his inn that was still suspicious enough to be thought of as possible mafia. I once again received no results.


The first two investigations are somewhat unimportant at this point in terms of scumhunting. We now know that Swate was blocked by Notty on Night 1 and that Digi has been telling the truth. Not much to be deduced from this besides the fact that Digi is much more likely to be innocent, simply because every other part of his story checks out and because of all the reasons that were listed on the previous day. That's also why I feel that Ooglie was insane at the time of investigating Digi, regardless of if he was insane at the beginning of the game or not.

My first investigation was also the reason why I was going after Swate the first few days, in addition to his already suspicious behaviour in my opinion. I thought that maybe since we only had 1 kill, maybe he was a killing role. I feel like it was a bit flawed logic, to be honest, but that was what was going on in my head at that point.

Anyhow, the last three investigations are what truly get my attention.

With both Hype and Samlen I received no investigation results. Why? I feel like there are three possible explanations to it:
  1. I was roleblocked.
  2. They didn't use/don't have an ability.
  3. Or, I don't receive the results when I investigate non-town players. All the players I have investigated and received results from (Notty, Digi and Ooglie) have been town (at least as far as I'm concerned, it's debatable if Digi really is town or not.).
The first two wouldn't exactly give us many leads to go on. However, the third possibility is something that, if true, would give us two (!) anti-town players. It's a flimsy theory, at best, however there are no better leads (besides Ooglie's investigation that I received, I'll get to that in a moment), so I think it's worth considering. That said, we're probably not in a good position right now, as so far we've only killed one mafia (Swate) and even that is not certain if he actually was mafia, and the theory is so full of speculation, that I feel that it's best if we either discuss it through very thoroughly or leave it for the time being.

Now, the investigation I received when investigating Ooglie. GmK is innocent. But how can we know if he actually is? We can't. Ooglie could have been insane and lazy, or he could've been just insane or he could've been just lazy or he could've been neither of the two, considering that we still don't know what the Cursed Tome does. The way I see it, more things point to Ooglie being an insane cop, which would mean that GmK is guilty. That really was the main reason that I announced GmK as a FoS yesterday, I looked at my investigation, figured he was guilty and then went and searched the thread for other reasons that would point towards him being guilty, to give my FoS at least some justification. And even so, I still found some rather logical reasons why GmK should be guilty, other than the investigation result which I couldn't out at that point because of the mafia threat, so there's that.

That was also the reason I voted Samlen then. We had determined that according to the "1 Mafia in every Inn" theory (which is, again, pure speculation to be honest, but since it's a closed setup game, that's pretty much every theory, I guess), either Samlen or Std had to be mafia, so I figured that GmK would be more likely to go after the one that is not his teammate. Then Std came and made some so suspicious posts that I felt that Std was more likely to be scum and maybe GmK was bussing after all or wasn't a mafia. GmK is a player that makes a lot of gambles and bold moves, so it didn't seem all that unlikely that he would be bussing Std. Well, so much for that. :L

As the last thing that I would point out regarding Kake, I'd like remind/point out that this makes GmK the last living player of Ooglie's inn, from which no mafia has died so far. If, and only if the "1 Mafia per Inn" theory is true, that would also point to GmK being mafia, among the other bits.


And on a somewhat unrelated, but mention-worthy note, I'm gonna go ahead and say that I received the Cursed Tome this Night. I guess we'll see if it really delays results if I survive this night.


Without further speculations, I'm gonna cast the only reasonable vote that I can make in my opinion:

vote GmK
 

GmK

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Since today is the world cup half final Germany - Brasil I won't get to reply until in in the morning (s0 roughly 12 hours from now) to your vote, any sensible reply right now is hindered by the copious amounts of beer I am drinking in preparation of the match ^^
 

Enderfive

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Since today is the world cup half final Germany - Brasil I won't get to reply until in in the morning (s0 roughly 12 hours from now) to your vote, any sensible reply right now is hindered by the copious amounts of beer I am drinking in preparation of the match ^^
That is completely fine, I'm watching the match myself as well.
Germany 4evar
 

Timdood3

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I'll hold off on my vote for now, but being the believer in Ooglie's insanity that I am (Come at me, JK D:< ), I'm pretty sure GmK is guilty.

As for the little theory that you only receive results from town roles...I think that's a bit..illogical, to be honest. I see it far more likely that they're just vanilla townies/did not use an ability.
 

Samlen

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I'll take a moment to at least try and sorta generalize some of the points that our inn talked about last night. One point is that, after some discussion and clarifying of roles (and me role-claiming (on a side-note here, if you guys would feel better with me claiming, I can do so)), I believe we at least mostly trust each other to be pro-town (correct me if I'm wrong on this, but this is how I interpreted it), which if we do completely believe each other to be pro-town, than it disproves the '1 Pirate per Inn' theory and that the inns were most likely just completely randomized. Another bit that popped up last night was a fos on GmK, and even last night I believed it was highly likely that he was a Pirate, and now with Ender's investigations, I find that I can trust Ender and that my suspicion of GmK is (at least) mostly confirmed.
Now here is my evaluation on people at the moment, starting with the inns.

The Small Crappy Saloon:
Fiesta (Dead Town)
Jivvi (Dead Town)
Ooglie (Dead Town)
Uknown (Most likely living, plausible Pirate) - Note this person is included in players whom haven't claimed to be in an inn

The Smallest Crappiest Saloon
Samlen (Living Town)
77_is_the_best (Living (assumed) Town)
Cooliorules (Living (assumed)Town)
std1997 (Dead Town)

The Damp Attic Saloon
Endersteve5 (Living Town (large evidence for claim of being town))
Jeercrul (Dead Town)
Swate (Dead (I'm assuming) Pirate)
Storm886 (Living third-party Alien (presumably))

Players claiming to not be in an inn (only living players).

Gmk (Living Likely Pirate (from my point of view))
Ansoro2112 (Living Unknown)
Timdood3 (Living Unknown)
JKangaroo (Living Unknown)
HypeBurst (Living Unknown)
Digitalmez (Living Town (highly believable claim))

Now from my theories, there are most likely 5 Pirates total in this game, with Swate being the only dead Pirate, and the other four are most likely to be among the people not claiming to be in an inn (and I strongly believe by this point that GmK is among them, but I'll still be waiting to see what he responds with later). Assuming I'm correct in believing everyone in my inn to be innocent, then the other 3 are among the last 4 Unknown. These look like good odds to me, but we won't be able to know if we're doing everything right since we have, once again, lost our mortician =S (and I highly doubt we're getting another one in this game).
Overall, I'll just be waiting to see what GmK has to say, but will still probably vote to lynch him as I try and think of whom the other Pirates could be.
 

JKangaroo

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Give me a moment, but let me just say I don't think GmK is guilty and I still believe Ooglie is NOT insane (unless of course the donuts made him lazy and insane at the same time (because due to the delays I'm pretty sure we can say he's lazy) but that seems a bit much to believe, and that would take into account Ooglie not being insane/lazy(he certainly wasn't before hand) when he investigated Swate, which left Swate to be either Godfather or town, which we can't say for sure.

But yeah, give me a moment.
 

JKangaroo

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I just want to know why you think he couldn't have been insane to begin with :c
I put that into consideration a long time ago: again, insane + lazy? seems off.
And again, there are too many different scenarios that frankly no one is going to agree on until we find out their actual roles when the game ends(if they release the convo roles/we get closure from dead peoplesss) so really, it just seems strange to me that he would be insane at any point in time.

Say for example, Ooglie WAS insane at first: Swate, his first investigation, turned up Innocent: but he was actually Mafia, we made the right lynch. This of course should we ignore that Swate may have been the Godfather (where I believe, I don't know how insane cop works when investigating Godfather but I would assume it would show the opposite, so instead of innocent it would show up as Guilty; also ignoring possible lawyering / framing / etc)

But, I would say its safe to say that Ooglie did become lazy after Donut Dan died (there's enough evidence to support that); lazy AND insane? seems improbable, but not impossible: I choose to believe he was only lazy, so its a matter of opinion.
If he WAS insane but BECAME lazy instead, then we can say that his other 2 investigations were---

blah blah blah etc etc now im just repeating myself from all the other times I said it before.
Let me just finish my actual post D:<
 

Timdood3

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I put that into consideration a long time ago: again, insane + lazy? seems off.
And again, there are too many different scenarios that frankly no one is going to agree on until we find out their actual roles when the game ends(if they release the convo roles/we get closure from dead peoplesss) so really, it just seems strange to me that he would be insane at any point in time.

Say for example, Ooglie WAS insane at first: Swate, his first investigation, turned up Innocent: but he was actually Mafia, we made the right lynch. This of course should we ignore that Swate may have been the Godfather (where I believe, I don't know how insane cop works when investigating Godfather but I would assume it would show the opposite, so instead of innocent it would show up as Guilty; also ignoring possible lawyering / framing / etc)

But, I would say its safe to say that Ooglie did become lazy after Donut Dan died (there's enough evidence to support that); lazy AND insane? seems improbable, but not impossible: I choose to believe he was only lazy, so its a matter of opinion.
If he WAS insane but BECAME lazy instead, then we can say that his other 2 investigations were---

blah blah blah etc etc now im just repeating myself from all the other times I said it before.
Let me just finish my actual post D:<
By all means, finish your post <3
But we had multiple cops. It makes sense that one of them would be insane. Ooglie was lazy, something we can all agree on. His laziness was presumably brought about by the death of Donut Dan (RIP <3). You said it could be the case that he started insane, but afterwards became sane and lazy. Why could it not be possible for him to have started insane and then just had lazy on top of that?

Digi has a highly believable claim, and is even backed up by Ender's journalism. Ooglie got an a guilty result on Digi after Donut Dan died. This tells me that the insanity persisted, and his laziness was just an addition.

On the same card, this leaves GmK as a pirate. However, I will wait for him to respond before casting my vote.
 

JKangaroo

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Alright, I was going to claim yesterday once that inn-search was going around, but I held back as I was hoping that more players were going to talk, but sadly std and tim came around and ended up hammering it before that happened (I probably shouldn't have voted until later if I wanted that to happen too since I also wanted some answers from digi but oh well ;-;)
But seeing as ender claimed as well as the input from Sam, I feel like this is a good time, and I hope its okay that I'm outing people like this: at the moment I believe its LYLO should there actually be 5 Mafia; we still have a chance or 2 to mess up should it be lower than that, but who knows right now.

I am 'Keeper Klyde' - This games Innkeeper.
The reason most nights take forever is due to the fact that inns only operate during night hours (which is information we already know about); longer night periods provide more time for inn-mates to discuss the days events, give feedback to one another, and whatnot.
...Sadly, it does not seem the inns have really talked much at all really or made any real plans or did ANYTHING really (I'm looking at you Damp Attic Saloon, where NOBODY TALKS BUT ENDERSTEVE for the past few nights D:<)

*ahem*
Anyways, as I was saying...
The reason I am outing myself now instead of way back when is 1)I didn't want to make the same mistake as Fruit last game where telling everyone about the inns basically ruined a bunch of plans (though by that point the inn-theory was able to be concocted and we were able to pinpoint 1 Mafia per inn); 2)77 already released information about the inns, and with that, there was no real point in me revealing myself unless I found critical information; and 3) Now is a good time with more role claims, such as ender's.
(And for another proof being innkeeper besides the one about endersteve, during Night 4 inn-talks, STD claimed Timdood3 would be his FoS)

The inns work as you probably imagine: 3 inns (that I know of, which is why I don't know why players were talking about a fourth inn) are laid out: The Small, Crappy Saloon; the Damp Attic Saloon; and the Smallest, Crappiest Saloon, which open up for discussion each night (except the night where 77 used his ability to party). Each inn is composed of 4 players: their alignments, we do not know of, just like always.
With the death of the innkeeper, all nightly chats are essentially ended (similar to what was said last game).
------------------------------------------------------------------------​
With all the necessities out of the way, let me give my reasons on why I feel GmK is a poor choice and where I feel all of our suspicions should be pointed to (and again, apologies of outing you players).

There WAS a reason I made my "inn-theory" opposing the "1 Mafia per inn" mentality I created earlier, which Jeer promptly rebutted despite not seeing it was simply a "bad" (it was an excuse at the time) "theory" or knowing the reasons behind it.
I was hoping someone would pick up on some of the truth behind it, but nevermind that.

The reason for that theory is this: we have, or at least, from my inn-chat watching (and something I BELIEVE IN; should you not believe this then go ahead and lynch, but in my opinion, or at least, in my heart I want to trust it though yesterday's actions have somewhat rocked that opinion badly) is that we simply have 3 cops.
That is the main "truth" I had held at the time I made the "inn-theory"; 3 cops and 1 blue: NOT A COINCIDENCE imo which is why I said "the inns CAN'T be random this game or have the 1Mafiaperinn theory as the inns have had in the past. Though the rest of my theory was indeed, simply speculation on my part, what I stated above is simply what I believe in.

Here is the completed inn-list up to this point:
The Small Crappy Saloon
Fiestaguy - Tumbleweed Thomas (Vanilla Villager) Dead
+GmK - claimed rolecop inside inn awhile ago.
Jivvi - Sheriff Shane (Cop) Dead
Ooglie101 - Sheriff Steve (Cop) Dead
The Damp Attic Saloon
+endersteve5 - Newspaper Nick (claiming Journalist/town)
Jeercrul - Forgetful Flyod Dead
+storm886 - Extraterrestrial Ex (claiming Alien/third-party w/Swate as possible affiliate)
Swate - Unknown Dead
The Smallest Crappiest Saloon
+77_is_the_best - Name??? (claiming party host role/town I believe)
+cooliorules - "Tumbleweed Timothy" (Claiming "blue" inside inns near the start of the game)
+Samlen - "Tumbleweed Travis" (Claimed "blue" last night in inns after asking coolio what her role-name was.)
Sploorky/std1997 - Bloody Blake Dead
Not in a Saloon(alive):
+JKangaroo - Keeper Klyde (claiming innkeeper)
+Digitalmez - Abhorrent Adam (claims town)
+Timdood3 - No claim
+Ansoro2112 - No claim
+Hypeburst - No claim

Now, again, where you believe any of these claims or not, that is left up to you, and I will let the players whom I have outed explain themselves as I cannot (again, sorry).
And if you want to believe the 1 Mafia per inn story, then very well, I will not stop you, but I believe otherwise.

Anyways, I will continue my "inn-theory" here:
I personally believe that the first inn is correct, or at least, can be trusted. 3 cops, 1 civ. Strange.
Now there are certain options you can take from here:
  1. Believe in the 1 Mafia per inn theory - GmK, Swate (which I guess is the one most believe in at the point), and someone in final inn are Mafia, including any possible ones outside of the inns
  2. Believe in the claims of each inn, signifying that there may not have even been any Mafia in each inn (with swate being an unknown) and that all Mafia would be outside the inns. This would mean, should you trust all of the present roles as being not-Mafia(including third party) 20 -12 players would leave us with 8. We take away Notty, Duffie, and Oak who were not in inns as well leaving us with 5. Should you believe me and digi's role claims (we are also not in inns), it leaves us with 3 players: Hype, Ansoro, and Tim.
  3. Some inns have Mafia/third-party, some don't. (possible, seems unlikely). Ex: the "Damp Attic Saloon" so far is the only saloon to have a confirmed third-party, and another claiming to be third-party as well as 2 claims to be town (Endersteve and Swate). All other saloons seem to be pro-town in terms of roles. Damp Attic Saloon therefore could be filled with anti-town or third-party (like Ender could use journalist as a cover for informant; storm could actually be Mafia, etc etc). This matters more on speculation and where your suspicions lay.
  4. Some other theory, something or other that I can't think of right now.

At the moment, I am currently inclined to believe the 2nd theory (again why I said I felt the Mafia were hiding in plain sight/hiding well enough to avoid being turned against), but that may change with the input of other players.
I am still skeptical about believing there are 2 blues (coolio and Sam) in the last inn however, and I do I have doubt GmK after what happened yesterday since I thought he had investigated std and thats why he was voting for him but I don't actually know about that; and I have some other suspicions elsewhere, but because I'm terrible at making assumptions with so much information that may or may not be true... I don't even know if they're actually suspicious or I'm just making myself think that.

Again, sorry for outing players, but I feel like it was needed to for us to get a more educated guess at who to lynch this day, and that, for the time being, I want to trust GmK (going against ender's vote) and whatnot.
I'll leave responses and explanations to those players I outed and those still alive.
 

Timdood3

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Ansoro, Hype and I are going to have to claim sooner or later, so I'll be the first to do it.

I am Survivalist Sam. As my name suggests, I am a survivor. I win if I am alive at the end of the game. I have no night action. If I'm alive, I win.

This puts me in a bit of a sad situation, actually. Because I can win with the mafia (only if they win), people will say I'm against the town, but I'm really not ;-;
 

Enderfive

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"(I'm looking at you Damp Attic Saloon, where NOBODY TALKS BUT ENDERSTEVE for the past few nights D:<)"
Confirming Jk as Innkeeper, and

"+GmK - claimed rolecop inside inn awhile ago."
Pointing out that rolecops are mafia more often than town.

Will address things in more detail tomorrow, as I somehow have managed to stay up until 4:30 rather sleepy.
 
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