Trouble in the West: Pirates vs Cowboys [Finished]

[cooliorules]

Yes, but nobody besides Digi and GmK have a confirmed 50% chance of being non-town either.

I'm just going to use myself as the example for the sake of not wanting someone to get all up in arms.

Do you know what my alignment is?
No. You know my claim.

That means that you don't know whether I'm actually town or not. Therefore, confirmed 50% chance that I'm anti-town.

I know there is a higher suspicion on digi/gmk, but I was just using myself as an example.

 

[Enderfive]

I'm just going to use myself as the example for the sake of not wanting someone to get all up in arms.

Do you know what my alignment is?
No. You know my claim.

That means that you don't know whether I'm actually town or not. Therefore, confirmed 50% chance that I'm anti-town.

I know there is a higher suspicion on digi/gmk, but I was just using myself as an example.

Uhhh no... ._.

For you, the chance would be (number of non-town alive - 1) / 9 x 100%
That's not 50%, at least not necessarily. In case of digi and GmK, we know they're of different aligments, so the chance of either of them being a non-town is confirmed to be at least 50%.

 

[cooliorules]

-crawls into a ball-
This math hurts my head ;n;

 

[Samlen]

Now I've taken a bit of time to actually think about what's happened so far today, and this is the line of logic I've used to come to my new conclusions.
We've had two confirmed and now dead cops, and we have a rolecop (GmK) that claims to be town-sided and what looks to me to be a claim to be a town-sided informat (Ender). To me, to have all four of these information gathering type of roles to be town sided seems highly unlikely, so I believe that at least one of the two (GmK and Ender) are lying about being town-sided (maybe even both, both roles are traditionally Mafia sided, but I can see Prizyms switching up a role or two, not certain on this point). Now if we believe that Ooglie was (in)sane (which I think is likely) and didn't have a modifier like random or some other random thing to mess up Ooglie's investigations, then Digitalmez is of the opposite alignment of GmK, which has been stated by others before. If I were to decide between Digi and GmK, I'd say that Digi feels more town-sided than GmK does.

Vote GmK

 

[Ansoro2112]

It wasn't much of a test to completely prove innocence, but more of one to at least help in that general direction. I still find it hard to trust much of anything or anyone, so maybe I'm just over-paranoid in that sense, but I don't know how much I should believe or not.

I'm confused right now with the "Tumbleweed Test". I still don't really get it. Can someone explain that to me a little bit better? Like what happened between Samlen and Coolio?

 

[Samlen]

I'm confused right now with the "Tumbleweed Test". I still don't really get it. Can someone explain that to me a little bit better? Like what happened between Samlen and Coolio?

It was a poor (apparently, it sounded good to me at the time) attempt to see if Coolio might have been just faking her claim of being a vanilla townie (A 'Tumbleweed'). I'd seen that Fiesta also had a Tumbleweed prefix like my own when he died, so I assumed that all vanilla townie's were Tumbleweeds (since I had Fiesta and myself to confirm that). I figured that a non-'Tumbleweed' wouldn't assume right away that all vanilla townie's had the Tumbleweed prefix since they only knew of Fiesta, so I thought that if Coolio was fake claiming, she might use a different prefix other than Tumbleweed (like Cowboy or something). After trying this, it didn't seem to do much other than make people suspicious of me, so I guess it wasn't a good plan like I thought it was.
Note: This happened inside our inn last night, which might be another reason why you're slightly confused.

 

[Timdood3]

a town-sided informat (Ender). . . both roles are traditionally Mafia sided

You seem to be forgetting that Journalist is a thing. You can look at it two ways:
1) Journalist = town-sided Informant
2) Informant = Mafia Journalist
I'm more inclined to believe he is town due to his behavior, but both roles work exactly the same way, simply with different alignments.

I'm confused right now with the "Tumbleweed Test". I still don't really get it. Can someone explain that to me a little bit better? Like what happened between Samlen and Coolio?

I got this. Before claiming, Samlen asked Coolio for her role name because he wanted to see if she would say "Tumbleweed," - Damn ninjas.
However, this should have made Samlen trust Coolio, but instead- Well, I'll refer you to post 1783 on the previous page to avoid repeating myself.

 

[Samlen]

You seem to be forgetting that Journalist is a thing.

I should probably take some time at some point to browse a Mafia Wiki to see the different roles, I'd only heard of it being informant xP

However, this should have made Samlen trust Coolio

As for this, it let me trust her more than before, but I still don't trust much of anyone anyways.

 

[HypeBurst]

I'll be honest and say I've gotten lost in the clusterfuck of a discussion that's been going on around Samlen. I'll read up on it now to see what everyone is talking about but this will take awhile damn

 

[Enderfive]

I'll be honest and say I've gotten lost in the clusterfuck of a discussion that's been going on around Samlen. I'll read up on it now to see what everyone is talking about but this will take awhile damn

Tbh I've gotten lost in the clusterfuck of Samlen's arguments... :s

 

[JKangaroo]

So this is either minute or huge: GmK, the claimed rolecop, says he got a "Janitor" result from investigating OMO, but his role was actually undertaker, which sounds to me like the polar opposite if a janitor.

Janitor: Can hide someone's role from the public.
Undertaker: Roles stop showing up when he dies.

On top of that, I would imagine that you'd have gotten the same role that showed up on the death report. I just can't wrap my head around why you would get "Janitor" and not "Undertaker." Unless of course, GmK really isn't a cop at all, and didn't quite check everything over before claiming o-o

However, Everything else seems to check out...So I'll give him the benefit of the doubt...For now!

I"m going to bring this up seeing as digi also brought it up.. again...
According to my logs of that nights chat, GmK said he got the investigation of Oak as "Permanent Janitor," which, though not much a different in terms of saying he got Oak as janitor, it explains the idea in more detail/clearer then what I feel was explained earlier.

Janitors, essentially, should a person die, they conceal that person's role from the rest of the town, thus not making it common knowledge.
This game, Oak claimed to be Boneyard Brian, an Undertaker, that should he die, all further roles will not be revealed on that person's death. aka. making all roles permanently hidden. Basically in the vein of the Janitor, except on a wider scale.
This was of course, overridden with Jeer using the Amnesiac's power to turn into Oak's respective role, which let us see both std's, Ooglie's, and their roles after death respectively, though I guess we no longer have that luxury with Jeer dead.

In my opinion, the fact that the investigation came up as "Janitor" seems extremely sensible to believe and not really a mistake.
---
The Samlem discussions are... I don't even know where to start.
It feels like a bunch of players are starting to make less sense in their posts in the past few days over the discussion :/

I'm going to read back over the posts to understand em' a bit better and reread through my logs of the inns (seeing as I forget what they talk about in em from time to time) to see if anything can shed more light on the situation.
Just wanted to make that quick explanation since it was bugging me after both tim and digi talked about that.

 

[Timdood3]

Thanks, JK, if he had mentioned "Permanent" I don't think I would have brought it up at all xD
Also looking forward to your imminent postzilla <3

 

[JKangaroo]

Okay, I went back to look over whatever logs I got from Priz on the chats in the inns, and I have a couple of suspicions going on.

This is my first observation I noticed while going back over past discussions in the chats: back on day 1, virtually all of the inns (except the Small, Crappy Saloon; aka GmK's saloon which just had a random mini-Mafia that Fiesta talked about a long time ago) basically stated, or at least assumed to some degree, that there had to be a Mafia in one of their rooms.

Ender was one of those that said there is a "pretty real possibility" that one of the members of his inn was a Mafia, or apart of the Mafia. This, in my opinion, is understandable, as it is an assumption.
However, since I personally do not believe in the 1 Mafia per inn theory, I found the 2nd example of this to be a bit strange.

77 is the other example that day, when he also came up with the spokesperson-idea. He also stated a version of the 1 Mafia per inn theory, however, this one stood out more to me.
It went along the lines of: "Also someone in here is Mafia as usual so keep soft and hard claims to a minimum"
This frankly, struck me as odd, as it feels like 77 knows there is a Mafia in his inn; his statement I feel can be assumed as an "exact" sentence, which basically means that "it must be this scenario, there is no other options..." or something along those lines (it's hard to explain).

This is at least, how I'm viewing the sentence as. It may be looking to much into things that aren't really there, but I still think it feels strange even with him being partyhost.
It might be small or insignificant, but that is what stood out to me at first.
---
My 2nd observation involves the Cursed tome.
Ever since Ooglie claimed to have received it, I don't believe anyone else has claimed to have received one besides endersteve earlier?:

And on a somewhat unrelated, but mention-worthy note, I'm gonna go ahead and say that I received the Cursed Tome this Night. I guess we'll see if it really delays results if I survive this night.

I know GmK received the tome from Ooglie back when he first revealed it in the thread and that Ooglie could only pass it to someone in his inn:

Two nights ago after performing my night action I was informed that I received a Cursed Tome (the two events are not connected) and that I could hand it to another person... in my inn.
-------
Now ?(<-GmK who was in the same inn) is currently holding the Cursed Tome...
Thread pg 42; post #1030

And that GmK didn't pass it back since the party occurred... but GmK did you pass the tome to Ooglie the night he died? Or do you still have the tome on you and there's a 2nd tome with ender?
I know you discussed it briefly with Ooglie before he died that night, but as far as I can tell you said you would be willing to keep a hold of the book, but seeing as Ooglie could only pass it to players inside the same inn, I can only assume there are either

~Note: I had the rest of my theory here but I cut it out of my post since I want to wait for GmK's response to that question before I actually post it, so when I do post it please excuse the weirdness of how it sounds; its supposed to be a continuation of what I was saying in this post so it probably has a lot of past-tense/whatever. Danke~

 

[Timdood3]

Yay it's finally here!
And while it does seem like he knows, I personally feel like he was just stating his assumption in an odd way because he said "As usual" I don't know the context, but it sounds to me like he was just trying to prevent claims from happening.

 

[JKangaroo]

Yay it's finally here!
And while it does seem like he knows, I personally feel like he was just stating his assumption in an odd way because he said "As usual" I don't know the context, but it sounds to me like he was just trying to prevent claims from happening.

That's why I said it was really small and was just strange to me and that I probably was just looking to into things that weren't there

 

[GmK]

JKangaroo - am travelling, so only a quick reply: i asked the host if who I can give the tome to (just to confirm if what ooglie said is true), and was told that I can only give it to inn partners. That moment my mind was thinking in german mode, and thought that this means I have to hand it out, so I gave it back. But seeing how I had it for a day and night and Ooglie did as well, I am still not one clue further about what it did/does. One idea: Since ender now received one, there might only be one in play, and they're always given to someone in inns (?), stay in that inn until a person holding it is dead (?). But what happens then...not the faintest.

 

[GmK]

Does anyone have a current votecount? (Tapatalk isn't the best to go through long threads)

 

[Samlen]

Approximate Votecount Becfore Sleeeeeep

GmK (2) - Digitalmez, Samlen (4 to Lynch)
digitalmez (1) - GmK (5 to Lynch)
Samlen ( 2) - Endersteve5, Cooliorules (4 to Lynch)

 

[GmK]

It's interesting to see how the two persons that are suspicious (for different reasons) 'wagon' on me. I could read into that, but won't right now.

I can understand how - from an 'outsiders' perspective - digi and i are word against word, theory against theory. For me, logically, I thought that with Ooglie confirming me inno, the only thing I can do is to vote digi. But currently the thought that Ooglie was maybe randomised (maybe due to the tome!? Could it be that that's what it does? Randomises PR action results? eh, but then I wouldnt have gotten 'confirmed' results?) haunts me, since digi convincingly plays pro-town. And with my own theory of in this game classical town/anti-town roles being switched, it would mean also that the Journalist Ender is actually an Informant, but I simply don't believe him to be scum. Aarghhh.

The only solid lead we seem to have currently is samlen, or rather it's the one lead I can also support with a vote, seeing the above arguments. Here's to hoping digi isn't completely playing me:

unvote

Vote samlen

 

[HypeBurst]

I've re-read and re-read these posts concerning Samlen and the posts that he made, talking about wavering suspicion of GmK and 'testing' coolio, and to me it seems messy and all over the place. I think it may have come on through panic but I really do not trust that his posts are coming from a pro-town place. The biggest red flag for me is the test on coolio which feels more like he's trying to figure out what to claim. I already had a suspicion on him yesterday, and these points just cement it.

vote Samlen

 

[Timdood3]

Argh, this feels like I'm just jumping on a wagon, but the more I read the arguments against Samlen, the more convincing they get...It just feels unlikely that there are three vanilla townies in this game. I can believe two, but alongside the fact that Samlen asked Coolio for her role name, I just don't think he can be. I hope we're making the right call here .-.

Vote Samlen

 

[Enderfive]

FoS changes:

Very likely to be mafia in my opinion: Samlen.
More likely to be mafia in my opinion: Digi, Hype, Storm.
Not quite sure, could be one or the other: GmK, Anso, 77.
More likely to be what they say they are in my opinion: Coolio, Timdood.
Very likely to be what they say they are in my opinion: Jkang.

 

[Enderfive]

EDIT: Hype in the middle, in "not sure". Sorry for the mistake there.

 

[storm886]

Your posts are always so long! So many suspicions but they all have some reasoning behind them. It's just a matter of detecting the good and the bad. Samlen is all over the place. I think he could be a sk.

Vote samlen

 

[GmK]

I think we have a crunchtastic lynch.

Locked, but please recheck, Alpha102 or Prizyms