The goal of this plan isn't to keep our already mediocre PR's alive, it's to actively gun down any suspects as fast as we can while we still can. By comitting to autocracy we get 2 nightkills ontop of our day lynch.
While the anti-town have essentially 3 kills every night one single lynch from us isn't going to cut it even if we lynch a Mafia every single day, they just have too many kills for us to keep up with them no matter how right we are.
With 7 Mafia and assuming 2 kills every night, it means if we lynch right every single day 14 town members will eventually be dead. Since we have 18 town total, this leaves us with a wiggle room of 4 extra townies who can die before we've lost. Here below is what happens if we lynch right every single day, assuming 2 kills every night(Mafia+Revo) and they never hit each other since Revo's goal is to get into the council and thus they will kill council members to free up spots and the council will always be a majority of town(unless theres a Mafia majority and they turn the council into a dictatorship which is an extra kill for the Mafia).
Look at that, we quite literally do not have a single mislynch or we already lose. 1 lynch per day is not good enough. And the funny thing here is that the granny/poisoner isn't even taken into consideration, even if the Mafia kills the Revo somewhere early the granny/poison kills will still average it out to about 2 kills per night, if the Revo doesn't die early things will probably look like more like 3 kills per night instead of 2. Even if the Revo kills one or two mafia this will take us from our ability to have 0 mislynches to 1, which we'll 100% have since theres no way we'll lynch right every single day.
If you can try to convince me that with 2-3 kills every night a democracy with 1 lynch is good enough then there must be something big I'm overlooking.
both notty's scenarios reply on rev not dying the whole game, and maf having both of their kills. consider literally any scenario where either maf poisoner or rev dies at literally any point in the game
both notty's scenarios reply on rev not dying the whole game, and maf having both of their kills. consider literally any scenario where either maf poisoner or rev dies at literally any point in the game
why would you assume the rev/poisoner is going to die early
great, let's assume the best things happen and make our choice based on that, and completely ignore the (likely) alternatives, because that will help us win
nottys plan involving massclaiming was because it makes us have higher chances of lynching correctly
it was brought to light that without massclaiming we still have a somewhat ok chance at lynching correctly enough times, although I'm skeptical about that since it means we can't mislynch or miskill more than about 4 times
(with massclaiming we get 1-2 mislynches within a pool of 13, without it we get 3-4 within a pool of 25, or something like that, I don't remember the details)
If we don't massclaim we're 100% gonna use up our 3-5 mislynches/miskills or however many it was again and are probably going to kill our useful PRs anyways
If you don't consider making a choice which means town almost definitely loses even though there are better options, throwing the game, sure
I mean I am exaggerating slightly when I say 'throw the game' since he does seem to somehow genuinely think it's a good idea but to my mind it would cost us the game for 0 valid reason
alternatively, if you for some reason don't wish to read the information thread to an open setup, any questions pertaining to (not) your role can probably be asked in the role pm
If you don't claim there's a chance (depending on who we end up electing) that Mafia are in there and so they kill our dictator n1 and we're forced to NL, which could happen again the next day as well if we still have Mafia elected
i swear i remember you yourself giving the exact reason why this is unlikely to happen
delaying the kill attempt on the dictator by one night in order to prevent suspicion on their own guy in the council has no significant drawbacks to the maf, whereas the opposite would lose them one of their own and deprive them of a trusted player who would have a pretty good reason to be townread
Are you suggesting a game cannot be flawed in its balance? Because you should probably read the last 10 games and you'll figure out you're wrong in that
I don't understand any of the "but priz wouldn't have done that" arguments
This is an open setup
The entire setup is literally right there for you to go read and understand
It's like seeing someone kill someone and then being like "but they wouldn't have done that!"
well turns out they did and you can look over the video footage of it as much as you want
because of the sheer number of different elements in play, i don't have any faith in you if you think you can reasonably predict how the entire game is going to go just by looking at the setup
I mean I may be wrong but I swear that was different last game because I specifically remember thinking that the mafia doc's antidote was soley there for them to be able to convincingly claim doctor
then again I might've thought that since the only poison was mafia now that I think about it
assassin can also poison under a democracy, so maf do have a practical use for the poisoner's antidote ability
for someone who puts so much emphasis on the setup being open and us therefore being able to somehow predict the entire game because of that, you sure missed a lot of details when reading over the setup
Doing all those things would be a waste though because people are aware that these things could be going on so it wouldn't prove them in the slightest and they'd have wasted the potential for 2 poisons just to do that
surely there's something to be said for the overwhelming number of investigative roles we have
also the handful of roles that give us a decent amount of info when they die, forcing mafia to be careful
i feel like a lot of people still ignoring most of our PRs but that's just me. this includes the people who thought claiming the "3 most useless roles" was a good idea
BP is a pretty nice asset to us since they can resist a kill every night, and they lost that while on the council.
paranoid seems useless at first, but as long as they're not occupied but still at the centre of attention, they're going to get a decent amount of info and hopefully after a night or two be able to validate claims when people are counterclaiming each other by confirming that they were visited. by putting them in the council, they stop having a deterrent effect on mafia that may want to target non-representatives. i keep forgetting that we didn't out the paranoid but i've definitely seen people talk down its usefulness so i'm leaving this bit in
whistleblower is a lot more useful under democracy in my opinion, cause learning the factional of the makeup of the council is particularly good when we have 3 un-cc'd players on there; if there's mafia, we have a much easier time working out who they are, and if there's no mafia, we suddenly have 5 clears.
Democracy is completely valid route as it can disable at best up to three Dissenters night actions when subpoenaed. None of anyone calculations seem to factor this in and I'm sure we'd need a mixture of both routes to avoid hitting the revo's win condition.
Would be good to see some of the other players posting their thoughts instead of the same few people for pages on end.
Ok so i'm slolwy catching up on the thread... it is taking me a while as i have 28 pages to catch up on and half of it is just Inffy babbling... I think the only thing i have learnt is that Inffy learnt a new word in the form of:
The Mafia will likely only kill our dictator once because if they do it twice, they risk losing to the 3p if they lose their bus driver and we lose our doctor
So we'd only be forced to NL once realistically, twice possibly (wow I feel like I'm back in the previous game since I swear I said this exact same thing about 100 times since nobody was understanding me)
Just going through and seen this, sadly, once again.
INF, WHAT IF WE LOSE OUR DOCTOR/MAFIA LOSES THEIR BUS?
This is a problem I have addressed before to do with the massclaim as it allows rev to specifically target the roles that could stop them from winning (also the fact mafia would likely throw to rev to stop a town victory (lesser of two evils all of that))
And even if we don't massclaim there's still a chance they'll be nightkilled by chance, resulting in us having to switch to democracy halfway through. This is why, as hk says, we can't apply ourselves to a single strategy because it means if things don't go our way we fuck ourselves.
(also pretty sure in this 5 townie dictatorship strat neither doc nor mafia know who the dictator is so they could easily fuck up anyway.
once again, notty's calculations do exaggerate the dire consequences of our game because they don't show PR abilities or the chance that two nightkills may target the same person etc.
anyway gonna continue going thru now, just wanted to make this point.
both notty's scenarios reply on rev not dying the whole game, and maf having both of their kills. consider literally any scenario where either maf poisoner or rev dies at literally any point in the game
once again, notty's calculations do exaggerate the dire consequences of our game because they don't show PR abilities or the chance that two nightkills may target the same person etc.
